Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[GregBowman]

2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Currently working on a cruise ship, we have changed our itinery, we are possibly the most sanitary environment on the planet, cruise ships health and hygiene standards, beat that of hospitals by miles. (overall sanitation including food prep) a UK pub, a bus, train or tube, is never sanisized during the day to day service. As we are on a heightened level of sanitation we have teams going round wiping every hand contact area more than every 30 minutes with a substance known to kill carona virus among others.. 

I would feel worse getting on a crowded tube or an plane. 

It may not be your idea of an ideal holiday, but it's by far the fastest growing holiday sector. There are 90 new ships to come out over the next few years.. (hopefully there is a vaccine by then!) 

Give crusing a try. It's honestly got something for everyone just research the company, for things you like

Yep well said are they swopping our the air packs on airliners in the three hours they turn them around ....?

[GregBowman]

13 hours ago, Orb said:

Not even jealous. She probably costs as much in maintenance per day that I earn in one month.  

And ... under rated lying next to a beautiful woman as you get older - and in my experience some of the nicest people I have met are good looking ladies who have looked after themselves as they have aged  

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

6 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

So next time you start coughing or have a fever will you follow the Government's polite request for you to self isolate and stay at home?

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/15/exclusive-millions-told-stay-home-coronavirus-continues-spread/

So 2-3 weeks additional leave for council workers.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Interestingly it looks live COVID-19 has little or no impact on children, due to the innate response of their immune systems.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/why-kids-missing-coronavirus-cases.html

This disease actually seems well designed to take out boomers - median age spread, hotels, taxis , cruiseships and planes. I do wonder if this is why such a fuss is being made over it.

I do recall in previous winter flu outbreaks pundits on the TV saying “it is only the flu, it only has any serious consequences for the elderly and infirm”...the implication being so let’s not do anything about it. I guess the view then was it was a bit like the practice ascribed to some Eskimo groups of putting the elderly out in the cold (which incidentally did happen, but only in a limited number of groups and which was rare by the time of the last recorded case: https://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2160/did-eskimos-put-their-elderly-on-ice-floes-to-die/

I think what we therefore have is the last flourished gesture of the baby boomers as they collectively cr@p their pants at the thought of their pending mortality.

(That sounds so GenX)

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Si1]

1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Interestingly it looks live COVID-19 has little or no impact on children, due to the innate response of their immune systems.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/why-kids-missing-coronavirus-cases.html

This disease actually seems well designed to take out boomers.

 

I wonder if it's essentially been evolutionarily selected (China also has an ageing population?), Ie its virulent transmission rate is enhanced by targeting oldies.

Cruise ships too.

A true black swan.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

20 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I wonder if it's essentially been evolutionarily selected (China also has an ageing population?), Ie its virulent transmission rate is enhanced by targeting oldies.

Cruise ships too.

A true black swan.

I just expanded on my post. Certainly, I think the hysteria is linked to boomer mortality.

Taking the liberty of quoting myself

24 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

..what we therefore have is the last flourished gesture of the baby boomers as they collectively cr@p their pants at the thought of their pending mortality.

(That sounds so GenX)

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Peter Hun]

10 hours ago, scottbeard said:

You hear a lot about the one cruise ship that got infected,

Two.

And the first outbreak is the largest outside China.

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

Two.

And the first outbreak is the largest outside China.

FFS

You keep picking holes in my posts whilst ignoring the point I’m making

”One” here was just a turn of phrase...the point is as a % of those who’ve gone on cruises in 2020 that unlucky group are a small proportion

Is there a block/ignore facility in this website??

[Peter Hun]

10 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

FFS

You keep picking holes in my posts whilst ignoring the point I’m making

”One” here was just a turn of phrase...the point is as a % of those who’ve gone on cruises in 2020 that unlucky group are a small proportion

Is there a block/ignore facility in this website??

There is only one or two so far, reguardless of what the cruise industry wants us to believe it is a perfect environment to transmit the virus.

The key word is “so far” (this is not aimed as a dig at you). “So far” its not killed that many. “So far” there is only a couple of ships infected. Unless we stop this virus the reality is it could kill 60million. cruise ships, public places, pubs, public places are all places of transmission to shut and it will come to that.

there is a ignore user option, click on my username.

[Grayphil]

6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

There is only one or two so far, reguardless of what the cruise industry wants us to believe it is a perfect environment to transmit the virus.

The key word is “so far” (this is not aimed as a dig at you). “So far” its not killed that many. “So far” there is only a couple of ships infected. Unless we stop this virus the reality is it could kill 60million. cruise ships, public places, pubs, public places are all places of transmission to shut and it will come to that.

there is a ignore user option, click on my username.

In some ways you are correct, and one ship, the diamond princess is in a bad way undoubtedly. The westerdam didn't get infection that seemed to spread. The other ship was infected by norovirus. The reason that you hear about the cruise ships with things like norovirus, is because guests are encouraged to report symptoms as soon as they get anything, this is to isolate them. And start following more extensive sanitation plans. We are required by US CDC no report any cases. This gets published on their websites and news papers love lo run panic stories about them.

Norovirus doesn't even get reported in the UK. Have a think about it, how many times have you caught the sh@ts in the UK and not reported it to a doctor. I'm sure loads of times! 

The good thing about cruise ships is that they can immidiatly change itineries to adapt. Our company has just done that and cut all infected countries out of our schedules, the logistics of such a last minute change are truly wide ranging and surprising, and a massive learning curve. But its doable to keep all guests and crew as safe as possible. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

13 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Norovirus doesn't even get reported in the UK. Have a think about it, how many times have you caught the sh@ts in the UK and not reported it to a doctor. I'm sure loads of times! 

Your average Brit is quite at home with the shits, how else did we elect Boris and Cummings? 

But lame jokes aside, I think norovirus is normalised in the UK. In fact, I'd even say there is some level of immunity to it now. The first time I had it (caught from my kids who were toddlers at the time) it was definitely bad. I may have had a  dose recently, but barely noticed it, one extra trip to the bathroom perhaps and slightly burpy after eatening, which only lasted 2  days. 

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Anyway, we'd not have had all this fuss when I were a lad back in the 1970s.

Me parents would have just held a Coronavirus virus party, and when iI caught it, I'd be bloody grateful. 

[Grayphil]

6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Your average Brit is quite at home with the shits, how else did we elect Boris and Cummings? 

But lame jokes aside, I think norovirus is normalised in the UK. In fact, I'd even say there is some level of immunity to it now. The first time I had it (caught from my kids who were toddlers at the time) it was definitely bad. I may have had a  dose recently, but barely noticed it, one extra trip to the bathroom perhaps and slightly burpy after eatening, which only lasted 2  days. 

 

Agree 100% I had a bad case once.. 3 days everything out.. But although apparently you can't become immune, I believe bouts are shorter and less violent! 

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Agree 100% I had a bad case once.. 3 days everything out.. But although apparently you can't become immune, I believe bouts are shorter and less violent! 

 

Yes, I had read that the outer proteins of the norovirus do evolve reasonably fast and so any immunity may be for just 6 weeks or so. I guess either the recent strains are less virilant or perhaps our cells have some way of recognising the rogue replication payload. I do slightly suspect the latter, as I don't think we fully understand all the science yet. 

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Riedquat]

Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Yes, I had read that the outer proteins of the norovirus do evolve reasonably fast and so any immunity may be for just 6 weeks or so. I guess either the recent strains are less virilant or perhaps our cells have some way of recognising the rogue replication payload.

Diseases do tend to get less virulent with time anyway, the strains that don't keep people stuck in one spot spread more easily.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

6 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Diseases do tend to get less virulent with time anyway, the strains that don't keep people stuck in one spot spread more easily.

True, and interestingly human DNA /RNA also contains vestiges of old viruses and other remnants that used to be called  junk DNA -though some speculate this may serve more of a purpose, even a sort of intergenerational genetic memory. Most current theory on this seems to relate it to a use in gene expression, so whilst not coding proteins, it instead tells the protein coding DNA how to work and which mode to operate in: https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/genetic/dna-between-genes-junk.htm

Edited February 16, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Si1]

3 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I just expanded on my post. Certainly, I think the hysteria is linked to boomer mortality.

Taking the liberty of quoting myself

 

Here's an interesting thought.

Remember the London riots. I recall boomers in London complaining that the firemen didn't try very hard to stop their expensive houses burning down. Of course the firemen are completely priced out of even basic accommodation in London near where they work, and didn't risk their lives for some lucky smug boomers' assets.

And when coronavirus first appeared in that hotel in York, they didn't even lock it down. The people doing the jobs, pulling the strings, the post boomers who aren't going to die from it. Did the bare minimum.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

38 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Here's an interesting thought.

Remember the London riots. I recall boomers in London complaining that the firemen didn't try very hard to stop their expensive houses burning down. Of course the firemen are completely priced out of even basic accommodation in London near where they work, and didn't risk their lives for some lucky smug boomers' assets.

And when coronavirus first appeared in that hotel in York, they didn't even lock it down. The people doing the jobs, pulling the strings, the post boomers who aren't going to die from it. Did the bare minimum.

Probably true, why make the effort when you have been screwed. I wonder how many Amazon drivers would attempt to rescue Jeff Bezos from a burning building? 

[Si1]

1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Probably true, why make the effort when you have been screwed. I wonder how many Amazon drivers would attempt to rescue Jeff Bezos from a burning building? 

The generational contract. The boomer generation cashed all their cheques in already.

[winkie]

2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Anyway, we'd not have had all this fuss when I were a lad back in the 1970s.

Me parents would have just held a Coronavirus virus party, and when iI caught it, I'd be bloody grateful. 

Norovirus kills 200,000 people a year worldwide, highly contagions......I do remember chickenpox parties.

https://www.cdc.gov/norovirus/downloads/global-burden-report.pdf

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, Grayphil said:

The westerdam didn't get infection that seemed to spread. 

We will see about that. That patient has been enclosed with a couple of thousand other people, spreading the virus, for days. I will be surprised if hundreds of people don't go on to develop symptoms.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

And when coronavirus first appeared in that hotel in York, they didn't even lock it down. The people doing the jobs, pulling the strings, the post boomers who aren't going to die from it. Did the bare minimum.

The negligent response from the UK government is telling. They either could not give a S***, throught stupidity or are actively allowing into the UK.

I can imagine the idiot Dominic arguing for natural selection and using it as justification to destroy the NHS when it gets overloaded.

[Si1]

26 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

The negligent response from the UK government is telling. They either could not give a S***, throught stupidity or are actively allowing into the UK.

I can imagine the idiot Dominic arguing for natural selection and using it as justification to destroy the NHS when it gets overloaded.

Politicians and the management class don't understand science. Plus, scientists do tend to oversell their interests so when a real crisis comes along might not get listened to.

[Peter Hun]

56 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

We will see about that. That patient has been enclosed with a couple of thousand other people, spreading the virus, for days. I will be surprised if hundreds of people don't go on to develop symptoms.

Quote

12:03pm

Malaysia bars Westerdam cruise passengers

Malaysian authorities have said that they won't allow any more holiday-makers from the Westerdam cruise ship to enter the country.

The news comes after an 83-year-old woman who flew to Kuala Lumpur after disembarking the cruise in Cambodia tested positive for the coronavirus in a second confirmatory test. Six American and Dutch passengers are also in quarantine awaiting test results. 

Malaysia has also cancelled three flights chartered by the US to evacuate Americans from Cambodia, Bloomberg has reported. And the country will no longer allow any cruise ships departing or transiting in Chinese ports to dock. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-london-china-wuhan-latest/

[Grayphil]

6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-london-china-wuhan-latest/

Yeah I knew this, to be honest, I thought the 83 year old, had one test that was negative. But honestly who knows, dont misunderstand me, we have 800 guests joining the ship in a couple of days, although they have been checked they haven't been to affected countries and airports in the last 14 days, and will receive full screening, it's still a cause for worry. 

However no more than, getting on a plane, tube or bus.. Its easy to sensationalise, I've heard bold text works and caps lock proves a point