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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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5 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

But we have vaccines for those. I’m just trying to find a killer disease without a vaccine that we’ve developed herd immunity for. 

 

We have a vaccine for measles now.  When I was a kid there was no vaccine, but there was herd immunity to measles.

Most dread diseases of the past were brought under control well before a vaccine was available.

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2 minutes ago, kzb said:

We have a vaccine for measles now.  When I was a kid there was no vaccine, but there was herd immunity to measles.

Most dread diseases of the past were brought under control well before a vaccine was available.

So why did we bother with vaccines? 

Wiki says the immunity in the 30s was temporary...

 

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3 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

So why did we bother with vaccines? 

Wiki says the immunity in the 30s was temporary...

 

C3CC9009-6092-4B75-8011-B9A897CFFC2D.jpeg

It's only temporary because new generations of children kept being born.  When the non-immune  reaches a certain proportion of the population  the disease can spread again, but only among those who never had the disease.

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10 minutes ago, kzb said:

 It's only temporary because new generations of children kept being born.  When the non-immune  reaches a certain proportion of the population  the disease can spread again, but only among those who never had the disease.

Got it. So any naturally acquired herd immunity isn’t passed onto future generations. We require a vaccine for permanent herd immunity.

And if it mutates then we could be reinfected.

 

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10 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Got it. So any naturally acquired herd immunity isn’t passed onto future generations. We require a vaccine for permanent herd immunity.

And if it mutates then we could be reinfected.

 

Immunity by vaccination is not passed on either.

CV could become another measles, a childhood disease that usually is not too serious but on rare occasions is.  Adults would have immunity from their childhood infection.

It's theoretically possible to drive CV into extinction within 3 weeks.  All you have to do is not pass it on to anyone else and it's gone.

 

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51 minutes ago, kzb said:

We have a vaccine for measles now.  When I was a kid there was no vaccine, but there was herd immunity to measles.

Most dread diseases of the past were brought under control well before a vaccine was available.

Measles is incredibly infectious - each infected person may infect up to 18 other people, so you need up to  94% immunity for full herd immunity, otherwise it continues to circulate. 

I don't think most dreaded diseases of the past were brought under control from a herd immunity strategy without vaccination. Diphtheria, tetanus, polio - vaccination. TB - probably improved/less overcrowded living standards/nutrition +vaccination. Smallpox - vaccination. Plague - killed all susceptible. Cholera - hygiene measures. Typhoid - hygiene measures.

Maybe H1N1 Spanish flu?

Edited by Clarky Cat

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4 hours ago, byron78 said:

I've lost 2 friends to it and was very VERY close myself mate.

This is real.

I will lose more friends, as will you, if folk don't start taking isolation seriously.

I hope you dont die soon, i quite enjoy our strange conversation, make sure you take take care, my father is 90 and  i would be very sad if anything happened to him, even if is completely mad.

The only problem is we need a strategy after lockdown, a vaccine. 

If Bill Gates finds a cure then i will forgive him for Vista 

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6 minutes ago, kzb said:

It's theoretically possible to drive CV into extinction within 3 weeks.  All you have to do is not pass it on to anyone else and it's gone.

 

Until another bat is eaten in China.

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2 hours ago, anonguest said:

 

I get the impression the experts who are having to advise must be having a hard time and having to explain things like as if to a child.

We're watching another superpower (in many people's lifetimes) on the terminal wane.

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3 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

We're watching another superpower (in many people's lifetimes) on the terminal wane.

The question is, is this war by another means.

Who (which country using monkey see monkey do) suggested lockdown, and is the effect the same on a manufacturing country as a service economy?

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Boris Johnson admitted to hospital????  For 'tests'?

Doesn't sound good.

Edited by anonguest

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8 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Boris Johnson admitted to hospital????  For 'tests'?

Doesn't sound good.

The press saying it is precautionary. 

Which means he'll be on ventilator by tomorrow.

I just feel sorry for Carrie and his child, growing up not knowing his/her father. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Boris Johnson admitted to hospital????  For 'tests'?

Doesn't sound good.

Certainly doesnt - this means that Dominic Raab has his finger on the button.

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2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The press saying it is precautionary. 

Which means he'll be on ventilator by tomorrow.

I just feel sorry for Carrie and his child, growing up not knowing his/her father. 

 

 

Conspiracy Theory my friend saying

Some establishment who are upset with his Brexit success might be behind this plan to inject virus into him.

Irrespective of those theories, I wish him full and speedy recovery with long life to be spent with Carrie and his children.

 

Get well soon Mr Prime Minister.

We want you back.

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7 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Certainly doesnt - this means that Dominic Raab has his finger on the button.

Very possibly he didn't help things by continuing to work when he should have been fully laid up resting and doing absolutely nothing?

Edited by anonguest

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33 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

We're watching another superpower (in many people's lifetimes) on the terminal wane.

USA.

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Just now, prozac said:

Deep state........

Sounds right. Stammer will be in few years time doing Blair 2.0.

Seems a Brexiteer Boris sounds better than Stammer.

I hope he recovers.

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7 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Sounds right. Stammer will be in few years time doing Blair 2.0.

Seems a Brexiteer Boris sounds better than Stammer.

I hope he recovers.

Why do you call him stammer?

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3 hours ago, anonguest said:

Well certainly it's safe to assume that anyone labelled as serious/critical will be in hospital BUT that still doesn't quite provide the data I was referring to.

Thanks for the link though, very interesting.  Added it to my bookmarks

 

The general consensus is that around 20% of people who are infected will have to be hospitalised.

The critical/serious numbers on the worldometer site are I believe those in intensive care, i.e. on a ventilator.

 

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