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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Well he was certainly young...it would be interesting to know whether he had any other medical conditions or not that contributed to why it was fatal for him.

Like many people on this board, I suspect, I am following the demographics of the fatalities with interest just in case the virus comes my way...

The BBC explanation is he got a high dose of virus particles very early.  Not sure if this is a scientifically credible theory or something a BBC journalist made up.

He was a doctor so you would expect fairly healthy lifestyle, plus standard of living above the average.  He certainly looks healthy in the photos.

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42 minutes ago, kzb said:

don't know about that explanation of "Spanish" Flu.  The epidemic was just after WW1 finished, so they shouldn't have been in trenches.  I also do not know if they had "crappy starvation diets" in WW1 either.  There are stories that serving soldiers were actually better looked after than they would've been in the industrial towns from which they originated.

Yes, his theory is rubbish. Spanish Flu killed the young and healthy because their immune system went into overload (cytokine storm).  Its was spread by troops returning home.

With COVID19 we have no idea what makes individuals more susceptible, age and existing health conditions are known factors. Everything else is speculation.

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42 minutes ago, kzb said:

I don't know about that explanation of "Spanish" Flu.  The epidemic was just after WW1 finished, so they shouldn't have been in trenches.  I also do not know if they had "crappy starvation diets" in WW1 either.  There are stories that serving soldiers were actually better looked after than they would've been in the industrial towns from which they originated.

It took a long time to de mobilise and then ship people back home, millions upon millions of men. The British were not starving, but still likely had a sparse  utilitarian diet, and the Germans certainly were starving. Although it was infamous for turning victims' immune system against them, people in their 20s, 30s and 40s.

Imagine a Black Death style pandemic hitting the globe, with 30 to 60 percent killed directly by that: that's pretty much  nuclear war scale destruction, but without explosions. And then it indirectly ends up killing 70 to 90 percent of the globe (with the initial plague losses demolishing modern heavily interconnected industrial infrastructure, then the modern government/bureaucracy is less resiliant than Medieval feudalism in face of plague, that then triggers murderous political/ethnic balkanization, etc).

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18 minutes ago, kzb said:

The BBC explanation is he got a high dose of virus particles very early.  Not sure if this is a scientifically credible theory or something a BBC journalist made up.

Sounds like ******** to avoid scaring people.

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13 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Sounds like ******** to avoid scaring people.

Well earlier strains are more virulent and aggressive, but tone down so they don't kill the host so quickly, so survives longer and spreads wider.

Edited by Big Orange

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1 minute ago, scottbeard said:

Source....?

Yeah, most of the information here seems to be based on paranoia and hysteria (and the late Dr. Li was in the custody of Beijing authorities and perhaps denied treatment).

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1 hour ago, Big Orange said:

The British were not starving, but still likely had a sparse  utilitarian diet

SO a much healthier diet than today then !

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27 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Yeah, most of the information here seems to be based on paranoia and hysteria (and the late Dr. Li was in the custody of Beijing authorities and perhaps denied treatment).

He wasn't held in custody and he was hospitalised.  Hospitalised early on in fact, because it took 24 days from hospitalisation to death.  Most die within 21 days of hospitalisation.

 

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34 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Yeah, most of the information here seems to be based on paranoia and hysteria (and the late Dr. Li was in the custody of Beijing authorities and perhaps denied treatment).

Neat trick, dismissing facts with a paranoid, hysterical piece of speculation.

39 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Source....?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51368873

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39 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Imagine a Black Death style pandemic hitting the globe, with 30 to 60 percent killed directly by that: that's pretty much  nuclear war scale destruction, but without explosions. And then it indirectly ends up killing 70 to 90 percent of the globe (with the initial plague losses demolishing modern heavily interconnected industrial infrastructure, then the modern government/bureaucracy is less resiliant than Medieval feudalism in face of plague, that then triggers murderous political/ethnic balkanization, etc).

Up to 6 billion people killed?  I don't buy that level of impact.

Firstly, huge numbers of people are still living in substience poverty - they aren't connected to the "modern heavily interconnected industrial infrastructure" and wouldn't really notice if 60% of the rest of the world died.

Secondly, I think you underestimate the adaptability of people.  Look at countries that have completely self-destructed over the years: Argentina, Venezuela, Syria, Zimbabwe etc etc.  They aren't very pleasant places to live.  But you don't actually see 90% of people DYING.

Finally, remember that many of the actual victims will be people with medical conditions, who when they die won't actually destroy the global economy but rather free up resources that otherwise would be used to take care of them.

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8 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I think you've mis-understood this, or at least made an inference that's unsound.

You said 20% of the victims were young and fit.  But the article says:

Quote

About 80% of those who died were over the age of 60, and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, according to the NHC.

So 20% were under 60 - but equally 25% had pre-existing conditions.  How much is the overlap between those groups?  The number who are both under 60 AND had no pre-existing conditions may be quite small - we just don't know from that.

Also, I'd challenge that everyone under 60 is "young".  Young for dying, I'd agree, but I wouldn't describe a 57-year old as "young" by any normal use of the word.

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2 hours ago, kzb said:

The BBC explanation is he got a high dose of virus particles very early.  Not sure if this is a scientifically credible theory or something a BBC journalist made up.

He was a doctor so you would expect fairly healthy lifestyle, plus standard of living above the average.  He certainly looks healthy in the photos.

Oh yeah?  Healthy lifestyle not guaranteed.

Not long ago Doctors here were noted for a proportion of smokers and heavy drinkers. That may have changed since 1992, the last time I saw one other than one walking down the street.

My GP from years ago retired aged 59 and died at 61, heart. He regularly smelt of booze and was a known smoker.  After he died, it came out he'd had a habit of intercourse with female patients. That was his healthiest activity apparently. 

But I guess today that would be stamped on much more quickly.

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1 hour ago, Big Orange said:

Yeah, most of the information here seems to be based on paranoia and hysteria (and the late Dr. Li was in the custody of Beijing authorities and perhaps denied treatment).

Yes - this is the new brexit.  

i have given up listening to the bbc again as this dominates.  650,000 people die of flu every year. Why is that never on the news.  The general public have become snowflakes who are afraid of their own shadow and spend their lives worrying and getting stressed about any thing and everything most of which will never ever happen anyway. .  

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16 hours ago, Si1 said:

I believe that's also why Islam, with its ban on alcohol, never made it very far north.

Agreed It will never get my vote. I cannot understand  religion or a culture that despises and discourages socialising and relaxing with mates.

 

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18 minutes ago, mallish said:

. Why is that never on the news.  The general public have become snowflakes who are afraid of their own shadow and spend their lives worrying and getting stressed about any thing and everything most of which will never ever happen anyway. .  

This is in the news because 65 million are projected to die from it.

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18 minutes ago, mallish said:

Yes - this is the new brexit.  

i have given up listening to the bbc again as this dominates.  650,000 people die of flu every year. Why is that never on the news.  The general public have become snowflakes who are afraid of their own shadow and spend their lives worrying and getting stressed about any thing and everything most of which will never ever happen anyway.

Well they have if you believe the media.  In reality I'm not so sure.

No-one among my work colleagues or friends is talking about the Coronavirus, and certainly no-one is panicking about it.

The few hysterical people make good TV.   As ever, the silent majority just get on with their lives.

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30 minutes ago, mallish said:

Yes - this is the new brexit.  

i have given up listening to the bbc again as this dominates.  650,000 people die of flu every year. Why is that never on the news.  The general public have become snowflakes who are afraid of their own shadow and spend their lives worrying and getting stressed about any thing and everything most of which will never ever happen anyway. .  

And then there's the millions of young people who are killed and disabled each year without comment on the public roads.

annual-global-road-crash-statistics_5526

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3 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

And then there's the millions of young people who are killed and disabled each year without comment on the public roads.

Things that happen every year aren't newsworthy in the same way though.

The media exist ONLY to "sell papers". 

It's unrealistic to expect them to do anything other than publish exactly what they think will make them the most money, no more, no less.  It would be great if they did publish stuff genuinely in the public interest - but they never have and they never will. 

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47 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

Oh yeah?  Healthy lifestyle not guaranteed.

Not long ago Doctors here were noted for a proportion of smokers and heavy drinkers. That may have changed since 1992, the last time I saw one other than one walking down the street.

My GP from years ago retired aged 59 and died at 61, heart. He regularly smelt of booze and was a known smoker.  After he died, it came out he'd had a habit of intercourse with female patients. That was his healthiest activity apparently. 

But I guess today that would be stamped on much more quickly.

Yeah point taken.  British doctors are famously heavy drinkers I know.

However I think you will find the biggest factor in longevity is financial, and practising doctors are not poor.  I expect Dr Li would've been substantially better off than the average Chinese.

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10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

And then there's the millions of young people who are killed and disabled each year without comment on the public roads.

UK roads are much safer than world average though.

Also it is not fair to say it is without comment.  We spend billions on road safety measures in an attempt to cut our already low road mortality rate.

 

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Secondly, I think you underestimate the adaptability of people.  Look at countries that have completely self-destructed over the years: Argentina, Venezuela, Syria, Zimbabwe etc etc.  They aren't very pleasant places to live.  

Syria and Libya (years of total civil war destroyed their states, cities bombed flat, millions fleeing), even Venezuela and South Africa (quasi-failed states, criminals replacing bureaucrats, endemic vigilantism, civil wars imminent) seem further down the path of total collapse than Argentina, Mexico, Egypt, or Brazil (limping from one crisis to another, skirting on the edge of implosion, dangerously unequal and corrupt, sky high crime, but still functional, urbanized states).

And those are mainly slow burn states of collapse, occurring over many years to decades, not happening virtually overnight, like a super pandemic that Sythes down most of urban society within just months.

Edited by Big Orange

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4 minutes ago, kzb said:

Yeah point taken.  British doctors are famously heavy drinkers I know.

However I think you will find the biggest factor in longevity is financial, and practising doctors are not poor.  I expect Dr Li would've been substantially better off than the average Chinese.

 

1 minute ago, kzb said:

UK roads are much safer than world average though.

Also it is not fair to say it is without comment.  We spend billions on road safety measures in an attempt to cut our already low road mortality rate.

 

Not wanting to be picky, British roads are very safe for motorists.  They are a lot further down the scale when it comes to pedestrians and cyclists. In fact I've heard the latter are using some of the world's most dangerous roads for them.

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Quote

 

China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected

Six of the workers have died, the government said on Friday. It was the first time officials have disclosed the number.

nytimes

 

The death rate in between medical workers is small so far.

But the contagious is more worrying issue, if so many medical workers have been infected.

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1 minute ago, Bluestone59 said:

 

Not wanting to be picky, British roads are very safe for motorists.  They are a lot further down the scale when it comes to pedestrians and cyclists. In fact I've heard the latter are using some of the world's most dangerous roads for them.

In comparing to coronavirus, let's say a road user is "a case".

Essentially 100% of the population is a road user and there are therefore 67 million "cases".

28 per million per year are killed.

Your annual risk is therefore 0.0028%.

In an 80-year lifetime of being a road user "case", your CFR is 0.22%.  Very much smaller than the Covid-19 CFR.

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  • 314 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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