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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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6 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

Way too early to be saying this imo. On 28th January, ie just over 2 weeks ago, Singapore had 7 cases, quite similar to where we are now. Now they have 58 of which 15 are critical and a further 7 serious. Its likely that a number of these die. According to Wikipedia, the Chinese Doctor (Li Wenliang) who died, contracted the virus on 7th of January and died on 7th of February. It takes a long time to die it seems. Give it a few weeks and lets see where we are at both in terms of international spread and deaths.

Yes I agree broadly.  I worked out Dr Li took 24 days from hospitalisation to death.  He was a young fit person.

Also another front-line doctor stated that a turning point comes at 14 days after first symptoms.  You either start recovering or go into a decline at that point.  Death occurs in the third week, i.e between 14-21 days from hospitalisation.

On the other hand, I have to ask if any non-orientals have died.  Every death so far is a person of Asian race, I think anyhow.  

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52 minutes ago, kzb said:

On the other hand, I have to ask if any non-orientals have died.  Every death so far is a person of Asian race, I think anyhow.  

No indication than Flu or other Corona viruses are races specific. A significant number of Western cases are in intensive care, on the way to death.

As you say, infection to death takes a long time. 

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8 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

No indication than Flu or other Corona viruses are races specific. A significant number of Western cases are in intensive care, on the way to death.

As you say, infection to death takes a long time. 

But how do we know what race the "Western" cases in intensive care are ?  They usually don't tell us.

There is a reason (reportedly) why orientals are affected more seriously than other races.  It is because they have more of certain receptors on their lung cells.

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Starting to get some supply chain flags.

I think the analysis of the human impact is pretty much separate to the economic/commercial one (except in specialised cases such as medical supplies). The economic impact data is more certain than the medical data atm.

Ultimately I think the economic impact of the closures will exceed the economic impact if the disease was just allowed to let rip.

There is of course the question over whether that is the moral action or not.

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2 hours ago, kzb said:

 

There is a reason (reportedly) why orientals are affected more seriously than other races.  It is because they have more of certain receptors on their lung cells.

Yes, it seems odd how Orientals/East Asians are disproportionately badly hospitalised or killed, but you could take into account their likely suspect drinking water and infamously bad air pollution as well (also Spanish Flu was a major killer largely due to the crappy starvation diets subjected upon WW1 soldiery, secondary viruses/bacterial infections, with mountains of corpses and people coming from anywhere, etc, in addition to the millions crammed into the unsanitary conditions of the muddy, bloody trenches, camps, field hospitals, and troop transports, etc).

Edited by Big Orange

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41 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Starting to get some supply chain flags.

I think the analysis of the human impact is pretty much separate to the economic/commercial one (except in specialised cases such as medical supplies). The economic impact data is more certain than the medical data atm.

Ultimately I think the economic impact of the closures will exceed the economic impact if the disease was just allowed to let rip.

There is of course the question over whether that is the moral action or not.

Certainly. 

Letting the disease rip would actually boost productivity in the long run. (Spoken as an Economist). 

Nations would have fewer elderly and sick to care for. 

 

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2 hours ago, kzb said:

But how do we know what race the "Western" cases in intensive care are ?  They usually don't tell us.

There is a reason (reportedly) why orientals are affected more seriously than other races.  It is because they have more of certain receptors on their lung cells.

Quite possible. I have a hypothesis that a genetic inability to imbibe alcohol may be a factor. As someone with a mix of Celtic, Saxon, Norman French, Mediterranean and Germanic heritage, I believe I may be genetically fit to fight the virus through a regular glass of whisky. 

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41 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Quite possible. I have a hypothesis that a genetic inability to imbibe alcohol may be a factor. As someone with a mix of Celtic, Saxon, Norman French, Mediterranean and Germanic heritage, I believe I may be genetically fit to fight the virus through a regular glass of whisky. 

That's building up poison tolerance - it doesn't alter your genes (or at least you hope it doesn't).

Don't underestimate the Chinese drinking capability. I did a project in Shen Yang once and on the bonding night out the boss guy bought 2 bottles of whisky (one for him and one for me) and plonked them on the table.

The day after that was bloody horrific.

 

Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mithridatism

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug

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2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

That's building up poison tolerance - it doesn't alter your genes (or at least you hope it doesn't).

Don't underestimate the Chinese drinking capability. I did a project in Shen Yang once and on the bonding night out the boss guy bought 2 bottles of whisky (one for him and one for me) and plonked them on the table.

The day after that was bloody horrific.

I've read that the North Koreans are big drinkers too

On a side note they are dealing with protecting themselves against CV in their own way:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7999437/North-Korea-executes-official-public-bath-visit-quarantine.html

 

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Just now, Si1 said:

I've read that the North Koreans are big drinkers too

On a side note they are dealing with protecting themselves against CV in their own way:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7999437/North-Korea-executes-official-public-bath-visit-quarantine.html

 

Generally the further north you go the more drinking goes on. ML is right in a way because a considerable proportion of Chinese have an allergic reaction to drink and go bright red and fall over. We had a few carried off in taxis that way but there were always reserves to take their place ! They always got their own back by making us eat all kinds of questionable stuff and then laughing when they told us what it was.

But as ever you have to be careful not to generalise. If you think you are going to go in there and wipe the floor with all of them they will bring out their champion consumer who probably spent 40 years in the army and has baiju for breakfast. And then you will be in real trouble.

 

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29 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Certainly. 

Letting the disease rip would actually boost productivity in the long run. (Spoken as an Economist). 

Nations would have fewer elderly and sick to care for. 

 

I thought it was the elderly, the sick and those that need educating that create the jobs......nobody with needs or addictions = fewer jobs = less productivity.😉

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20 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Generally the further north you go the more drinking goes on. ML is right in a way because a considerable proportion of Chinese have an allergic reaction to drink and go bright red and fall over. We had a few carried off in taxis that way but there were always reserves to take their place ! They always got their own back by making us eat all kinds of questionable stuff and then laughing when they told us what it was.

But as ever you have to be careful not to generalise. If you think you are going to go in there and wipe the floor with all of them they will bring out their champion consumer who probably spent 40 years in the army and has baiju for breakfast. And then you will be in real trouble.

 

Yep, it was a post slightly in jest. 

Alcohol can breakdown the virus, though you'd likely need to gargle quickly and snort it too soon after having been sneezed on for any possible benefit. 

Also many Asians have an aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 deficiency. Breaking down alcohol causes an accumulation of acetaldehyde, and whist they complete this first step OK, they then struggle to break down the rather toxic acetaldehyde - hence red faces. 

I suspect Northern European's having a higher alcohol capacity was an evolutionary survival trait;  drinking fermented fruit was a way stay healthy during long winters. Also fermented beers (typically small beer, thus weak) was far safer than drinking the water supply in early towns and cities. Fermentation is effective at killing certain bacteria and infected beer would spoil. 

It is quite possible we'd still be living in caves if it wasn't for fermentation, in which I also include bread making. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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On 12/02/2020 at 15:14, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

It depends on the type of problem. You could envisage it like insurance. If you pay into being the member of a large group that you can draw on the resources of the group if you have an emergency. That works in the event the emergency is localised, so for example an earthquake, and only a small number are drawing on the resources of the greater number.

It fails completely of course if the emergency is EU wide, when everyone fights to get hold of the resource simultaneously. If anything it would be the end of the EU, as it would emphasis splits on a country basis, and the EU would have to prioritise who gets the resource.

In some ways this is similar to what the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies does.

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5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I suspect Northern European's having a higher alcohol capacity was an evolutionary survival trait;  drinking fermented fruit was a way stay healthy during long winters. Also fermented beers (typically small beer, thus weak) was far safer than drinking the water supply in early towns and cities. Fermentation is effective at killing certain bacteria and infected beer would spoil. 

 

I believe that's also why Islam, with its ban on alcohol, never made it very far north.

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48 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I believe that's also why Islam, with its ban on alcohol, never made it very far north.

Yes, better to drink ale with Odin and Thor in Valhalla, than put up with 72 incel virgins. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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6 hours ago, kzb said:

I worked out Dr Li took 24 days from hospitalisation to death.  He was a young fit person.

Well he was certainly young...it would be interesting to know whether he had any other medical conditions or not that contributed to why it was fatal for him.

Like many people on this board, I suspect, I am following the demographics of the fatalities with interest just in case the virus comes my way...

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On 10/02/2020 at 21:30, Sour Mash said:

But stuff that is made (or has consitutent parts/materials sourced from China) will be in very short supply for the foreseeable future.  That says to me that big inflation could be on the horizon.

Ah, my very thoughts and the reason for my visit today!

If inflation kicks off do you reckon rates will rise or they [the powers that be] will impose credit restrictions?

Also what can I buy today that I can fog at a huge porofit next month 🙂 

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43 minutes ago, Wurzel Of Highbridge said:

Ah, my very thoughts and the reason for my visit today!

If inflation kicks off do you reckon rates will rise or they [the powers that be] will impose credit restrictions?

Also what can I buy today that I can fog at a huge porofit next month 🙂 

Masks and hand sanitizer. 

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11 hours ago, Si1 said:

I believe that's also why Islam, with its ban on alcohol, never made it very far north.

It’s one of the main reasons why Russia didn’t choose Islam as State religion when it was looking for one.

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9 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Well he was certainly young...it would be interesting to know whether he had any other medical conditions or not that contributed to why it was fatal for him.

Like many people on this board, I suspect, I am following the demographics of the fatalities with interest just in case the virus comes my way...

20% of deaths are young people with no medical condition 

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8 hours ago, Wurzel Of Highbridge said:

 

Also what can I buy today that I can flog at a huge porofit next month 🙂 

Bitcoin

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13 hours ago, Big Orange said:

Yes, it seems odd how Orientals/East Asians are disproportionately badly hospitalised or killed, but you could take into account their likely suspect drinking water and infamously bad air pollution as well (also Spanish Flu was a major killer largely due to the crappy starvation diets subjected upon WW1 soldiery, secondary viruses/bacterial infections, with mountains of corpses and people coming from anywhere, etc, in addition to the millions crammed into the unsanitary conditions of the muddy, bloody trenches, camps, field hospitals, and troop transports, etc).

I don't know about that explanation of "Spanish" Flu.  The epidemic was just after WW1 finished, so they shouldn't have been in trenches.  I also do not know if they had "crappy starvation diets" in WW1 either.  There are stories that serving soldiers were actually better looked after than they would've been in the industrial towns from which they originated.

The Chinese water might be suspect to us delicate flowers, but they are used to it.  The effects of pollution are widely overstated also.   Also bear in mind their average age is younger.

I really would not run with the idea that we won't die because we are so fantastically healthy compared to the Chinese, I really wouldn't. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

That's building up poison tolerance - it doesn't alter your genes (or at least you hope it doesn't).

Don't underestimate the Chinese drinking capability. I did a project in Shen Yang once and on the bonding night out the boss guy bought 2 bottles of whisky (one for him and one for me) and plonked them on the table.

The day after that was bloody horrific.

 

Edit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mithridatism

Allegedly there is a genetic capability to handle alcohol.  It's not simply building up tolerance (although that is undoubtedly important as well).  Orientals are less likely to have a full complement of alcohol genes.

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  • 316 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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