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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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4 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Covid-19 is not a hoax, but the policy response to it is excessive. The expected morbidity/mortality could have been addressed with much more targeted measures aimed at the vulnerable and older demographics who are actually at risk. There was no need to place younger workers and children under house arrest.

That said, the general public were hysterical and demanding total lockdown, so policymakers had no choice but to do what they have done.

Expected better from you. 

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1 hour ago, smash said:

from things i've read/seen the Wuhan market was a fish market that was also doing (illegal) trade in wild animals. Channel 4 had an Irish fella who was in Wuhan who documented his return from the city to quarantine on the Wirral and he said that the local newspapers in Wuhan were reporting on lots of people in the fish market getting very ill prior to the outbreak was made national/international.

One more anecdote to add to the thousands already circulating. Even if true and relating to Covid19 it doesn't actually prove anything as tomorrow someone could pop up with another anecdote, or even hard evidence, about people somewhere else getting ill a few days, weeks or months earlier.

All we can say is that at the moment it looks probable that Wuhan was the starting point. 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Probably China maybe somewhere else, we are still not sure where Spanish flu came from. Almost certainly not Spain probably America, possibly the UK.

Actually, there's good reason to believe it came from China. They had a disease the year before with the same symptoms and similar death demographics.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0968344513504525?etoc=

https://archive.fo/veWS2

Edited by MarkG
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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

All we can say is that at the moment it looks probable that Wuhan was the starting point.

Wuhan almost certainly was, but it almost certainly wasn't the market. Too much evidence of the disease being around well before the first cases connected to the market.

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5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I'm going to repeat myself because it's still true - People are dying.  Lots more of them than usual. And it's going to get worse.

It's going to get a heck of a lot worse if they don't open the economy up. Hospitals won't be open long without people to go out to work to pay for them.

Oh, and many US hospitals may go out of business since they've shut down everything except emergency treatment and no longer have an income from those $100k surgeries.

Edited by MarkG
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8 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

"White Elephant" is a bit strong. Vastly better to build it and not need it, than need it without having built it, surely? Let's hope they don't need it at all.

Just working on the usual theory that when something is done by Government it is usually too late.

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9 hours ago, longgone said:

you would need access to the carriers imei register it would be easy to calculate through tracking it can be done via the phone imei and the SSN even if put in another phone. location history could tell if the phone is local to the area also. 

mobiles are a perfect tracking and heartbeat indicator. ;)  

 

 

Great.

You gave me the number for a Chinese city, give me the number for London, and Moscow, Beijing. You have access to this data, of course. Give it up.

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1 hour ago, MarkG said:

Wuhan almost certainly was, but it almost certainly wasn't the market. Too much evidence of the disease being around well before the first cases connected to the market.

Don't be shy and present the hard evidence, why to keep them only for yourself.

Please put them in two categories 1.) facts and 2.) guesses and conspiracy.

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9 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

"White Elephant" is a bit strong. Vastly better to build it and not need it, than need it without having built it, surely? Let's hope they don't need it at all.

I think, I know what you mean,

"The government should pay people to dig holes in the ground and then fill them up." John Maynard Keynes.

 

So far it's not ready to treat critically ill cases, Let's hope they don't need it at all.

Edited by rollover
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10 minutes ago, rollover said:

Don't be shy and present the hard evidence, why to keep them only for yourself.

If you don't know that the Chinese themselves were saying that many of the early cases had no links to the market a couple of months back, you're probably too short for this ride.

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9 hours ago, Flopsy said:

I've been listening to a podcast and there is a segment by a New York treating doctor who made some observations about his Corona virus treatment. Made some rough notes (still listening to the rest) which may be of interest. Apologies for any mistakes (sound not the best at time)

Daniel Griffin MD New York

1. Increased use of steroids for some patients with pneumonia and at the stage of needing Oxygen but not on ventilator. Paper from Whuhan (Whang). More complicated and less black and white picture on treatment in general. 
 
2. Hydroxychloroquine is used less now.  Stopped because study trend towards PCR negativity and not patient outcomes. Azithromycin is used less as well now. 
 
3. Oxygen saturation in some patients very low. Had a large patient with low stat levels. Turned him onto his stomach. Oxygen sats came up.

They decided to try (Off label) Tocilizumab a IL6 inhibitor by Roche. Cytokine storm. This looks like IL1 IL10 IL6 etc driven. High neutrophils, Low Lymphocytes (called  NLR test). Steroids cannot be taken with this drug.
 
The virus hits some people in 2 parts. One week of a viral illness and then the  Maladaptive immune response can kick when the viral load goes down. Immunopathology. 

Cell lysis issue maybe he thought is causing the maladaptive immune response? 
 
Once NLR goes down, blood oxy saturation goes up patients can do well.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

Interesting.

It confirms that the disease is far more complex than many in the West assumed and that deaths are occurring due immune response maybe after the virus is defeated.

Antivirals such as Chloroquinine may stop the virus and give a negative PCR result but that doesn't mean the patient is cured. Immunosuppressants  are required.

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8 minutes ago, MarkG said:

If you don't know that the Chinese themselves were saying that many of the early cases had no links to the market a couple of months back, you're probably too short for this ride.

    I see what you’re saying but I asked you:

 

Don't be shy and present the hard evidence, why to keep them only for yourself.

Please put them in two categories 1.) facts and 2.) guesses and conspiracy.

 

Please don't dodge the response and be on point.

Edited by rollover
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31 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Great.

You gave me the number for a Chinese city, give me the number for London, and Moscow, Beijing. You have access to this data, of course. Give it up.

May be the Wuhan institute of virology can help:

http://english.whiov.cas.cn/

They also have a contact page: http://english.whiov.cas.cn/About_Us2016/Contact2016/

Looks like a fairly regular institution to me. 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, rollover said:

    I see what you’re saying but I asked you:

 

Don't be shy and present the hard evidence, why to keep them only for yourself.

Please put them in two categories 1.) facts and 2.) guesses and conspiracy.

 

Please don't dodge the response and be on point.

There is this for instance

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532764-000-the-hunt-for-patient-zero-where-did-the-coronavirus-outbreak-start/

 

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36 minutes ago, rollover said:

Don't be shy and present the hard evidence, why to keep them only for yourself.

Please put them in two categories 1.) facts and 2.) guesses and conspiracy.

.......many mucking about with nature has caused terrible consequences.....like feeding vegetarian cattle with crushed fish meal.....and the pollution of rivers, felling of trees, genetic human experiments etc....it is a human problem, you can't put the blame on a certain section of the population, most people do not know the half of what goes on and would not agree with it.?

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Quote

 

Trump administration cut pandemic early warning program in September

The Trump administration decided to end a $200m early warning program designed to alert it to potential pandemics, in September, just three months before it is believed Covid-19 began infecting people in China.

“It was a genius, visionary program that USAid took a big risk to fund and it’s a crying shame it was canceled,” said Peter Daszak.

The project, called Predict, had been run by the US Agency for International Development since 2009. It had identified more than 160 different coronaviruses that had the potential to develop into pandemics, including a virus that is considered the closest known relative to Covid-19.

Guardian

 

That was a mastermind move, what could possibly go wrong.

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13 minutes ago, rollover said:

That was a mastermind move, what could possibly go wrong.

This...

Quote

Nurses and doctors at Montefiore medical center in the Bronx protested over the lack of personal protective equipment on Thursday. 'Every day when I go to work, I feel like a sheep going to slaughter,' said Dr Laura Ucik, a third-year resident at the centre

theguardian

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54 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

That was a mastermind move, what could possibly go wrong.

Beat me to it.

Articles and news like that can really paint the picture of a politician, beyond any spin they can apply.

In a strange way this virus may see a return to proper politics which includes accountability for bad decisions.

I think after the 2008/9 financial crisis everyone sat on their laurels thinking nothing would go badly wrong for another 50 years. This included the general public who thought they could elect shallow TV stars such as the ones who used to frequent 'Have I got news for you', and the US version of 'The Apprentice.'

This is why I was critical of the Nightingale effort. Basically without all the ventilators, trained staff, medicines, tests, PPE etc it is just last minute show boating - probably including a secret plan to prop up the Excel and NEC.

By the time it is completed, the virus will be in decline and we still won't have loads of newly trained medical staff; while thousands who probably should have been given palliative care will have been forcefully ventilated by some or other Heath Robinson contraption.

The UK snd US really need to put some proper  politicians in power, people with Engineering, Medical, Science and Maths Degrees. PPE or Classics at Oxford is frankly Micky Mouse and should relegate you to working in a cornfield. I'd also say the same for a lot of so called "Successful Businessmen" many of who are just lucky idiots who rode up the inflationary asset and property wave. 

 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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22 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Beat me to it.

Articles and news like that can really paint the picture of a politician, beyond any spin they can apply.

In a strange way this virus may see a return to proper politics which includes accountability for bad decisions.

I think after the 2008/9 financial crisis everyone sat on their laurels thinking nothing would go badly wrong for another 50 years. This included the general public who thought they could elect shallow TV stars such as the ones who used to frequent 'Have I got news for you', and the US version of 'The Apprentice.'

This is why I was critical of the Nightingale effort. Basically without all the ventilators, trained staff, medicines, tests, PPE etc it is just last minute show boating - probably including a secret plan to prop up the Excel and NEC.

By the time it is completed, the virus will be in decline and we still won't have loads of newly trained medical staff; while thousands who probably should have been given palliative care will have been forcefully ventilated by some or other Heath Robinson contraption.

The UK snd US really need to put some proper  politicians in power, people with Engineering, Medical, Science and Maths Degrees. PPE or Classics at Oxford is frankly Micky Mouse and should relegate you to working in a cornfield. I'd also say the same for a lot of so called "Successful Businessmen" many of who are just lucky idiots who rode up the inflationary asset and property wave. 

 

 

Be careful, the last British PM with a science degree was Thatcher...

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23 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This is why I was critical of the Nightingale effort. Basically without all the ventilators, trained staff, medicines, tests, PPE etc it is just last minute show boating - probably including a secret plan to prop up the Excel and NEC.

Oh come on Michael, you're too clever to post this kind of nonsense.

Your white elephant comment is just wrong - just admit it rather than making up stories to defend it.

Of course it's not as good as a "proper" hospital - but it's a fantastic effort at short notice and a lot better than nothing.  Ventilators and tests are being worked on.  Retired staff and volunteers are being hired.  By the time of the true peak in two week-ish time it will be a helpful additional resource.

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