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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
4 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Ageed, but it's an island that imports lots of food and other vital goods every day, on lorries, ships and planes.  And it only takes one lorry driver (or illegal immigrant stowaway) or one item that the virus has survived the trip lurking on and the whole thing is pointless.

Equally there were lots of UK citizens still overseas when this broke - surely we have to allow them to come home?

It feels to me easy to close down the borders 99%, but pointless if the virus comes in via the other 1% - we cut off half our food supply and some our citizens, only to get the virus anyway.

If you want to stop it, you have to make tough decisions.

That is how China got it under control.

Take tough decisions now = less people dying in the future.

 

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HOLA442
21 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Do Chinese dead children count?

Oh you’re so emotive. Use some crying face  emojis next time. 

Meanwhile you haven’t answered my question. (Eye roll emoji)

 

 

Anyone else: who was it here talking about how the virus was seeming to hit North African people (doctors in uk) quite hard? 

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HOLA443
1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/dec/12/home-accident-risk-nhs-doctor

Between 1 January 2012 and 13 August 2013, 26,310 patients were treated for injuries at Oxford’s John Radcliffe hospital and the Horton General hospital in neaby Banbury, of which 10,949 (41%) had been hurt at home and 6,602 (25%) during leisure activities.

The other third comprised 4,020 (15%) accidents on the roads, 2,620 (10%) in educational settings – such as pupils getting injured during PE lessons – and 2,119 (8%) at work.

We are talking "Deaths" , not injuries.

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HOLA444

Covid 19 tipping point

More Oxford profs peddling the notion that most Covid cases are asymptomatic.

Quote

Technospeak notwithstanding, there can be little doubt that Covid 19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. At the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed In Vo Euganeo, Italy, about 3% had already been infected –  most were asymptomatic.

Main concern seems to be:

Quote

Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.   What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?

 

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HOLA445
1 hour ago, kzb said:

Ridiculous isn't it.

This virus could be driven to extinction in Britain given the will to do it. 

Get Ro below 0.5 and it will all be over in a few weeks. 

It would be a vital part of this strategy that persons are not let into Britain without a clear test result or an immunity certificate.

In an ideal world the same would go for the far more important day to day contacts, stay at home until you can show you are not a risk. In the real world you have to do what is practical and most effective in terms of benefit v cost. Travel restrictions are low benefit and very high cost, only worth doing once you have stopped internal transmission. 

It is claimed that he current lockdown should have Ro well below 1, in which case we should soon be seeing a rapid fall in the number of new infections. If this happens, and we largely eliminate internal transmission it may be sensible to require travelers from countries where it is still spreading internally to have a clear test a few days before travel and again on arrival. 

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HOLA446
37 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Oh you’re so emotive. Use some crying face  emojis next time. 

Meanwhile you haven’t answered my question. (Eye roll emoji)

 

 

Anyone else: who was it here talking about how the virus was seeming to hit North African people (doctors in uk) quite hard? 

Ok, genius. What is the genetic makeup of all the people who have died?

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HOLA447
44 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

If you want to stop it, you have to make tough decisions.

That is how China got it under control.

Take tough decisions now = less people dying in the future.

I think we need to wait 12 months to judge this.

It's still very possible that it returns with a venegeance to give China a full blown outbreak anyway, just a bit later than it would otherwise have happened.

That's my concern - you may end up being draconian and yet that sacrifice is only for delay and not actually fewer deaths long term.

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HOLA448
48 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Ageed, but it's an island that imports lots of food and other vital goods every day, on lorries, ships and planes.  And it only takes one lorry driver (or illegal immigrant stowaway) or one item that the virus has survived the trip lurking on and the whole thing is pointless.

Equally there were lots of UK citizens still overseas when this broke - surely we have to allow them to come home?

It feels to me easy to close down the borders 99%, but pointless if the virus comes in via the other 1% - we cut off half our food supply and some our citizens, only to get the virus anyway.

 

Swap the HGV cabs at port and send the non-UK cabs straight back.

Virus on items will usually be dead before any hands touch it.  Fumigate containers with ozone just to be sure.

UK citizens returning  from abroad - quarantine until satisfactory negative test.

The Marshall Islands are currently CV-free.  They probably need to import even more than us.  Should they keep it out or not? 

 

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HOLA449
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HOLA4411
1 minute ago, anonguest said:

That's defined as mild.

According to some people who have recovered from "mild" infections, mild includes feeling so ill you wish you were dead. Severe means lungs infected/failing and very significant chance you are not going to make it.     

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HOLA4412
10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

In an ideal world the same would go for the far more important day to day contacts, stay at home until you can show you are not a risk. In the real world you have to do what is practical and most effective in terms of benefit v cost. Travel restrictions are low benefit and very high cost, only worth doing once you have stopped internal transmission. 

It is claimed that he current lockdown should have Ro well below 1, in which case we should soon be seeing a rapid fall in the number of new infections. If this happens, and we largely eliminate internal transmission it may be sensible to require travelers from countries where it is still spreading internally to have a clear test a few days before travel and again on arrival. 

Agreed, the hard travel restrictions only make sense in the final 3 weeks of the programme.  But they DO make a lot of sense at that stage.

Added to this, I am assuming that  much greater testing capacity and speed will be available in the near future.  This will be key to the project success.

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HOLA4413
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's defined as mild.

According to some people who have recovered from "mild" infections, mild includes feeling so ill you wish you were dead. Severe means lungs infected/failing and very significant chance you are not going to make it.     

Then again Matt Hancock seems very chipper.  Do we believe he's actually had it?

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HOLA4414
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's defined as mild.

According to some people who have recovered from "mild" infections, mild includes feeling so ill you wish you were dead. Severe means lungs infected/failing and very significant chance you are not going to make it.     

Agreed, the longer he has 'mild' symptoms the more likely he's going to develop pneumonia and a hospital stay.

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Agreed, the hard travel restrictions only make sense in the final 3 weeks of the programme.  But they DO make a lot of sense at that stage.

Closing the border would have made sense two months ago, now its only of use to build a case against the government at the inquest.

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HOLA4417

On a different issue I wonder how long working from home/furloughed staff can expect to continue to receive full pay.

For many, including myself, living expenses have been dramatically cut (no travel, no drinking/eating out, no entertainment or holiday costs) and real working hours probably reduced by around 50%, as so much has been cancelled.

On the other hand the zero hours gig economy workers don't seem to be covered and are expected to live on next to nothing, with even that being dependent on getting through the UC system.

I would have thought we need something like a 25% haircut on all salaries for the duration with the money raised redistributed via a flat rate payment to all NI payers.  

  

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HOLA4423
23 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

On a different issue I wonder how long working from home/furloughed staff can expect to continue to receive full pay.

For many, including myself, living expenses have been dramatically cut (no travel, no drinking/eating out, no entertainment or holiday costs) and real working hours probably reduced by around 50%, as so much has been cancelled.

On the other hand the zero hours gig economy workers don't seem to be covered and are expected to live on next to nothing, with even that being dependent on getting through the UC system.

I would have thought we need something like a 25% haircut on all salaries for the duration with the money raised redistributed via a flat rate payment to all NI payers.  

  

I'm actually better off on furlough, it costs me more to travel to work than I am losing in take-home pay.  I realise I am one of the lucky ones so far.

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HOLA4424
2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Probably China maybe somewhere else, we are still not sure where Spanish flu came from. Almost certainly not Spain probably America, possibly the UK.

Spain was just the first to very publicly acknowledge it - already rife in UK and US but was being covered up.

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HOLA4425
40 minutes ago, kzb said:

Swap the HGV cabs at port and send the non-UK cabs straight back.

Virus on items will usually be dead before any hands touch it.  Fumigate containers with ozone just to be sure.

UK citizens returning  from abroad - quarantine until satisfactory negative test.

The Marshall Islands are currently CV-free.  They probably need to import even more than us.  Should they keep it out or not? 

OK that's fair - I thought you were saying UK citizens wouldn't be allowed back. 

The question for the Marshall Islands isn't SHOULD they keep it out, but CAN they - even by locking borders.   That's the issue.

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