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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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3 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I was thinking the ideal home exhibition 😂

Though I see events are actually now being cancelled. Mobile World Congress and the Chinese Grand Prix all gone!

There must be some massive insurance claims!

won't this be one of those "Acts of God"?

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7 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

This thread needs to move on to the real issue:

Anyone who gets it, you know where to hang out to ensure maximum boomer exposure? Joking of course 😇

 

It’s an interesting thought. If mortality rates are 10 times the flu rates, there would be a cull of 5% of boomers. However, the hero Dr Li, he was only 30...maybe it’s specially designed to reduce the number of boomerang kids.

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10 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

This thread needs to move on to the real issue:

Anyone who gets it, you know where to hang out to ensure maximum boomer exposure? Joking of course 😇

 

Are there any plans for anymore people's vote/rejoin the EU marches? - cough cough!!

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I saw advisory notices in both my workplace and gym today about coronavirus for the first time - including the WHO guide on how to wash your hands.

Anyone who has a cough or fever and has been to South east Asia or China or Japan in the last month is politely asked via the notice on the front desk not to attend the gym. The gym chain - a big corporate one - has branches in both Singapore and Thailand - which are included in the list - and their members have reciprocal access to use UK branches when visiting.  

Made it all seem the more real!

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5 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Are there any plans for anymore people's vote/rejoin the EU marches? - cough cough!!

Being sarcastic?

If the coronavirus infection get out of hand the older generation will face greater risks and they are mostly Brexit and Tory supporters.

Just wait for the clean up, additionally to BJ mess up the trade deals negotiations and with bit of luck next year or the one after will be good to have another EU referendum.

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9 minutes ago, rollover said:

Being sarcastic?

If the coronavirus infection get out of hand the older generation will face greater risks and they are mostly Brexit and Tory supporters.

Just wait for the clean up, additionally to BJ mess up the trade deals negotiations and with bit of luck next year or the one after will be good to have another EU referendum.

average age in China Is much lower than the UK, indicating the death rate will be much higher here.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

average age in China Is much lower than the UK, indicating the death rate will be much higher here.

 

 

They also have a greater percentage of smokers, the death rate is going to be substantially lower than currently indicated due to the number of cases where there has been no clinical diagnosis.

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32 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

They also have a greater percentage of smokers, the death rate is going to be substantially lower than currently indicated due to the number of cases where there has been no clinical diagnosis.

We don’t know the percentages.

but the number and health of over sixty year olds is what counts. Diabetes heart diseases and lung health. How many aged 60+ smoke or did so in the past?

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15 hours ago, winkie said:

Common sense tells you, keep away from unknown others, do not travel on public transport, do not touch eyes and mouth with hands until washed if pushing public toilet doors or touching anything others touch outside home...going for a walk with a dog is low risk.😉

??? this is advice for who?

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Corona could be the answer to lowering house prices.

Any youngsters here should visit china for a break and then intentionally visit Every wetherspoons in the uk and possible end the occasion with a lovely cruise.

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1 hour ago, longgone said:

Corona could be the answer to lowering house prices.

Any youngsters here should visit china for a break and then intentionally visit Every wetherspoons in the uk and possible end the occasion with a lovely cruise.

I thought "Gummidge" was a Brexit cheerleader and financial backer.

Wetherspoons-profits-plunge-after-Tim-Ma

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14 hours ago, Shamus said:

That's all when and good but what if you work in an office where people travel widely?  I work alongside a man who has just gone to India somewhere not far from the Kerala region to get married.  The wedding is likely to involve him meeting several hundred guests. He is having about 3 weeks there before coming back.  I wonder if he should self isolate as a matter of course when he comes back in case he does bring the virus back.

My point is we are all individually responsible for our own safety and wellbeing based the correct factual information that we have.....nobody can rely on others doing the correct thing, they might not know what is correct or don't feel it is important enough.

3 hours ago, Andy T said:

??? this is advice for who?

Not advice, common sense, how to lower the risks of infection if there is a risk.😉

Edited by winkie

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4 hours ago, Chunketh said:

They also have a greater percentage of smokers, the death rate is going to be substantially lower than currently indicated due to the number of cases where there has been no clinical diagnosis.

The death rate from SARS was calculated from clinically diagnosed cases.  Quite possibly there were loads of unrecorded mild cases of SARS.  For comparability purposes we need to compare like with like.

Anyhow there was a large uptick in the number of recorded deaths yesterday as well as number of cases.

Just remember, of those with an actual recorded outcome, the death rate stands at 18%. (1370 dead/(1370+6253recovered)).

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Quote

As of 11 February, there had been 395 cases confirmed outside China and one death (which may be the most accurate picture of the outbreak). At first glance, it seems the chance of death must therefore be 1/395 or 0.3 per cent. However, this calculation makes a crucial error.

There is generally a delay of a couple of weeks between someone falling ill and dying or getting better, so we can’t include recent cases in the analysis, because we don’t yet know what will happen to them. If we adjust for this delay – and instead focus on the cases that occurred long enough ago to know what happened to them – we instead end up with a fatality risk of around 1 per cent. We saw a similar data illusion occur during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014: early reports put the chance of death much lower than it should have been, causing unnecessary speculation about why it seemed unusually low.



Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233386-coronavirus-how-maths-is-helping-to-answer-crucial-covid-19-questions/#ixzz6DqDIWhdF

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233386-coronavirus-how-maths-is-helping-to-answer-crucial-covid-19-questions/

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Confirmed - it's a Black Swan event:

Alibaba: 'Black Swan' coronavirus outbreak is hurting business

Delivery worker for Alibaba’s Hema Fresh chain rides his electric bicycle on a road following an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan. 

Delivery worker for Alibaba’s Hema Fresh chain rides his electric bicycle on a road following an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan. Photograph: STRINGER/Reuters

Newsflash: The coronavirus outbreak is a “Black Swan event’ which is having a ‘significant impact’ on China’s economy, according to its biggest company.

Daniel Zhang, CEO of e-commerce giant Alibaba, has warned that the outbreak poses near-term challenges to its business.

Speaking on a conference call to discuss Alibaba’s latest results, Zhang is explaining how operations have been hurt by the virus, which has forced factories and offices to stay closed for longer after the Lunar New Year.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/13/euro-low-recession-fears-coronavirus-growth-ec-business-live

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40 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I had a thumb through the print edition at weekend.  In there it said the true CFR could be 14%.

In this article they are using the smaller death rate observed outside China.  This apparently lower death rate might be due to detecting infections and mild cases more efficiently than in Hubei, and that healthcare systems are not overwhelmed.  Yet.

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

I had a thumb through the print edition at weekend.  In there it said the true CFR could be 14%.

In this article they are using the smaller death rate observed outside China.  This apparently lower death rate might be due to detecting infections and mild cases more efficiently than in Hubei, and that healthcare systems are not overwhelmed.  Yet.

Seems unlikely... I suspect they have been massively under-reporting infections but only moderately under reporting deaths, largely due to the fact that you have to have been diagnosed and then died to count as a death.  The most serious cases will be in hospitals and more likely to be diagnosed, though even then there may not have been enough kits to diagnose everyone who is admitted.

 

That would make the actual fatality rate for those contracting the virus a lot lower.

 

Still bad news, though, as loads of infections will result in a high total mortality number when all is said and done.

 

What is notable is how few non Chinese deaths and how it seems to not have spread as much as thought outside of China.

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16 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

What is notable is how few non Chinese deaths and how it seems to not have spread as much as thought outside of China.

Way too early to be saying this imo. On 28th January, ie just over 2 weeks ago, Singapore had 7 cases, quite similar to where we are now. Now they have 58 of which 15 are critical and a further 7 serious. Its likely that a number of these die. According to Wikipedia, the Chinese Doctor (Li Wenliang) who died, contracted the virus on 7th of January and died on 7th of February. It takes a long time to die it seems. Give it a few weeks and lets see where we are at both in terms of international spread and deaths.

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  • 316 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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