Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
LetsBuild

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, reddog said:

No, I didn't say that.

 

I said, plan a strategy, that means and in point and and end point, they would have a plan in place that lasts a few months.

 

The government got bounced into doing a lock down by the media, that is not planned.

No. Stop spreading fake news. The government changed strategy after the latest modelling pointed at a million deaths. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, reddog said:

I.T. for large complex financial companies, that's  kind of my point,

 

How would it be if I wanted do a change on a production banking system, and gave no indication as to when the work would finish, and gave no backout plan.

 

The change would never be approved!  

 

Even when you have to do an emergency change there has to be a plan and a backout plan.

 

 

Exactly ! But you're drawing the wrong conclusion in my view. The government would never be able to do the right thing (and still aren't ) because they are useless/incompetent and or evil. Your change lifecycle methodology is likely well tested and follow best practice. This government chose not to (e.g not following WHO recommendations ) and ignored the recommendations of the pandemic test from 2016 or whenever it was.

My 2 cents. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, reddog said:

No, I didn't say that.

 

I said, plan a strategy, that means and in point and and end point, they would have a plan in place that lasts a few months.

 

The government got bounced into doing a lock down by the media, that is not planned.

 

 

The Government did a lockdown because BoJo sh4t his pants when the scientists showed him the likely results of the plan he had in place.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Care may have to be rationed as UK braces for 1,000 deaths a day

Stable coronavirus patients could be taken off ventilators in favour of saving those more likely to survive, it emerged on Wednesday, as the UK braced for the outbreak to reach 1,000 deaths a day by the end of the week.

In a stark new document issued by the British Medical Association as the death toll rose by 563, doctors set out guidelines to ration care if the NHS becomes overwhelmed with new cases as the outbreak moves towards its peak. If the total continues to grow in line with increases over the last week, it is on course to go past 1,000 new deaths recorded each day within three to four days.

Guardian

Any idea when the peak is going to be hit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's pi$$ed off and rightly so (Piers Morgan angry today ITV Good Morning Britain):

 

 

 

Edited by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo's and details

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

After it finished, I turned to France 24 to see how they were reporting it.

An article came on about how Vietnam is managing to contain the spread

  • Testing booths in public places where you can get tested and have they result in 10mins.
  • When an outbreak, 32 cases, happened at a major hospital the closed the hospital disinfected it and tested all 5,000 staff and patients before reopening it.  

 

 

In the UK it's like this:

  • When an outbreak, 32 cases, happened at a major hospital, all staff were given bin bags to wear. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, rollover said:

Any idea when the peak is going to be hit?

My prediction assuming the lockdown works, which I think is likely 

1-2 weeks the peak of  new cases, deaths around 2 weeks later, it will take another 1-2 months for the outbreak (this wave) to be virtually over.

10-20k deaths in total, around 1k per day at the peak 

Edited by slawek

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Orb said:

In the UK it's like this:

  • When an outbreak, 32 cases, happened at a major hospital, all staff were given bin bags to wear. 

Not so much a  sh1tholes country, as a trash heap one! 

Great time to Brexit! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

Yes, so lock-down/social distancing will be the new "normal" until vaccine arrives.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

Probably, but at least we could have 2 months of eased restrictions, then onto the next wave and lockdown, the idea being to create several peaks, thus not overwhelming the NHS and causing as many deaths as one humongous wave would cause.... I guess.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Orb said:

Probably, but at least we could have 2 months of eased restrictions, then onto the next wave and lockdown, the idea being to create several peaks, thus not overwhelming the NHS and causing as many deaths as one humongous wave would cause.... I guess.  

Yeah I thought everyone was onboard with that message and plan. Hard to understand why anyone would still be clueless today as to what the strategy is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

If they keep R0 below there will be no more waves. If they let R0 go above 1 then wee will have a sustained transmission again. By more aggressive testing and isolation, and by keeping some social distancing measures they can slow the growth of the next wave.

The exit will be immunity either though vaccinations (a preferred way) or infections.  The latter option will cause 0.5-1m deaths if there is no cure available. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

Some useful  visualisations here:

https://www.whiteboxanalytics.com.au/white-box-home/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve

Also, try thinking through of the implications of a situation with 1m people piling into hospital over a relatively short period half of whom end up dying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

After it finished, I turned to France 24 to see how they were reporting it.

An article came on about how Vietnam is managing to contain the spread

  • Testing booths in public places where you can get tested and have they result in 10mins.
  • When an outbreak, 32 cases, happened at a major hospital the closed the hospital disinfected it and tested all 5,000 staff and patients before reopening it.  

 

 

If the stats are 'accurate' then Vietnam have only 218 confirmed cases. They are in a position where heavy testing can still be vitally important in tracking where the virus is spreading and putting smaller parts of the country into lockdown to contain it. Widespread testing for the U.K isn't a priority anymore, the virus has spread and full lockdowns are the only way to deal with it, it's the same with most countries. If it was done 6-8 weeks ago widespread testing and contract tracing would have made a massive difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, giesahoose said:

I don't understand why they think the wave will be over. If a few people are still infected would we not end up back in the same situation in 2 months?

Because once the spread has been constrained from exponential to linear, you can move on with measures to accommodate the risk.

 

Availability of masks (and widespread use) will help people function. Antibody tests will reveal the true CFR and pinpoint people who have had it and now have immunity and can work. New treatments will be developed to reduce mortality. More respirators will be manufactured. Eventually a vaccine will be developed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

You are joking, right? Do nothing and this would have peaked at ~45m cases by the end of April and then be gone. True, we'd be the first country out of lock down but with the total collapse of medical care that would have ensued we would likely have lost well over a million lives. The simple truth is that there are no easy or good answers to our current predicament.

Correct. This would have also caused the economy to crash as well so as you say, the country is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Films on Death

This is my all time favourite film in death studies. Original Doctor Feelgood guitarist Wilko Johnson is diagnosed with an un-stoppable cancer that manifests with a growth in his abdomen. Rather than taking a chemo route that would buy him a couple of months he decides to embrace mortality and asks his friend and film maker Julien Temple to document his experience. The film takes a bizarre turn during its filming when, by chance, a cancer doctor sees him playing a gig in London and thinks that medical science and expertise can re-roll the dice. This is one of my favourite films ever and Julien Temple does a marvellous job with his very interesting montage. Here is the trailer but the whole film is available on youtube with a short but beautiful intro by Alan Yentob.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, anonguest said:

I'd wager 50/50 it may involve, for several weeks after the lockdown is lifted, that we have some sort of mandatory wearing of masks or face coverings in public places.

Milions of 'simple' surgical style masks could be easily distributed among the poupulation (from GP practices, pharmacies, through major employers, etc)  IF, and I say IF, as I write this that some sort of 'war time' urgency effort is going on behind the scenes to manufactuire/procure/etc said necessary masks.

Those who cannot get commercial made masks will be expected to improvise.

I think this is how it will be as well. Masks will be mandatory before lockdown is lifted anyway and they will continue to be mandatory for periods of time. These will be extended by the Government bit by bit in the same way as lockdown will be extended bit by bit. At the same time testing will become more widespread and from that contract tracing can take place to contain any 'smaller' outbreaks if and when they occur. Teachers will be tested more regularly as will their spouses. Large gatherings such as sporting events and concerts won't be allowed for 12 months following lifting of the lockdown. Hand sanitiser dispensers will be installed at all public places around the country, with heavy penalties for the vandalising of them. There will be a mini-boom in the cleaning industry, city streets will be sprayed and cleaned on a day by day basis. The mandatory wearing of masks can eventually be lifted when there have been no more 'mini outbreaks' for a certain period, which may be a matter of months.

These are only my thoughts, and only some of the things I can see happening is it all plays out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

If the stats are 'accurate' then Vietnam have only 218 confirmed cases. They are in a position where heavy testing can still be vitally important in tracking where the virus is spreading and putting smaller parts of the country into lockdown to contain it. Widespread testing for the U.K isn't a priority anymore, the virus has spread and full lockdowns are the only way to deal with it, it's the same with most countries. If it was done 6-8 weeks ago widespread testing and contract tracing would have made a massive difference.

True but for the governments strategy to work we have to get back to that position otherwise we will either be in lockdown for years or we come out and overwhelm the NHS, in which case all the economic damage done to date will have been done for nothing.  

We still have a holiday to Thailand and Vietnam booked for May (waiting for airline to cancel) back in early February we were concerned about going to what was a virus hotspot but both countries have since made a far better job of containment than the UK. 

It is good to see the Tory supporting papers starting to hold them to account. The Telegraph seems to have reached the same conclusion as me about the complete failure of the government to manage or even explain the situation: 

Government unable to explain its coronavirus testing failures and lockdown strategy  

 

Edited by Confusion of VIs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, reddog said:

No, I didn't say that.

 

I said, plan a strategy, that means and in point and and end point, they would have a plan in place that lasts a few months.

 

The government got bounced into doing a lock down by the media, that is not planned.

Lets see how Sweden turns out, if they stick with herd immunity ethos. My view, 2 weeks max, maybe very slim chance the end of the Month. Then Panic.  Will be interesting to see how their deaths per capita end up when this is over and when they do buckle and go into lockdown, or if they manage to be the only one in Europe who go full herd immunity. 

No idea of the average age in Sweden and % of population in retirement age.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, reddog said:

I.T. for large complex financial companies, that's  kind of my point,

 

How would it be if I wanted do a change on a production banking system, and gave no indication as to when the work would finish, and gave no backout plan.

 

The change would never be approved!  

 

Even when you have to do an emergency change there has to be a plan and a backout plan.

 

 

Even if you told them if they didn't do it 3% of all Banks staff including the Managers, Directors and even the CEO will die? And 20% of all Staff will be off with terrible flu like sickness, could need 3-4 weeks hospitalisation, and have permenant lung and organ damage. 

And the whole thing could be hushed up and would be in all the press and on social media. Still think the wouldn't approve it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, markyh said:

Lets see how Sweden turns out, if they stick with herd immunity ethos. My view, 2 weeks max, maybe very slim chance the end of the Month. Then Panic.  Will be interesting to see how their deaths per capita end up when this is over and when they do buckle and go into lockdown, or if they manage to be the only one in Europe who go full herd immunity. 

No idea of the average age in Sweden and % of population in retirement age.

Newsnight had an interview with the Swedish health official responsible for their strategy. Even if you didn't agree with the approach he came across as open and honest, hugely refreshing after having to listen to day after day of dissembling from our politicians/experts.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Newsnight had an interview with the Swedish health official responsible for their strategy. Even if you didn't agree with the approach he came across as open and honest, hugely refreshing after having to listen to day after day of dissembling from our politicians/experts.  

Yep I saw that, he basically shrugged and said "nobody knows who strategy will work out best".  

Not heard much about North Korea much with this except they have shot people who presented as infected with CV19. I assume there thought process is carry on as normal, if you die, you die, if we think your important we may try to save you in hospital, any rioting / funny shit, we shoot you anyway.

5-10% mostly oldies dead, Economy basically intact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 397 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.