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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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1 minute ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Because Eu states, with their leaders and health services responsible to their local electorates will prioritise their local electorates first.

The only thing the EU would be good for is coming up with regulation EU 3463/316.B which would advise not catching the thing in the first place, and also devising 100s of commitees staffed by well paid buracrats to discuss the situation. And by the time they came to any conclusion then the disease would be over.

And actually having enough slack/capacity in their health services to treat significant numbers of people. 

My wife who works in the NHS in an area that tracks available resources beds/doctors/nurses told me that yesterday nationally there were less than 10 beds available suitable for supporting people with severe respiratory issues.   

Best to get it ASAP if you want to have any chance of receiving effective care, in the event that you are one of the unfortunates whose lungs are affected.  

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12 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Because Eu states, with their leaders and health services responsible to their local electorates will prioritise their local electorates first.

The only thing the EU would be good for is coming up with regulation EU 3463/316.B which would advise not catching the thing in the first place, and also devising 100s of commitees staffed by well paid buracrats to discuss the situation. And by the time they came to any conclusion then the disease would be over.

I think a lot of the pharma in Europe is actually based in Switzerland who also have the good sense not to be in the EU

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And actually having enough slack/capacity in their health services to treat significant numbers of people. 

My wife who works in the NHS in an area that tracks available resources beds/doctors/nurses told me that yesterday nationally there were less than 10 beds available suitable for supporting people with severe respiratory issues.   

Best to get it ASAP if you want to have any chance of receiving effective care, in the event that you are one of the unfortunates whose lungs are affected.  

The "if you're going to catch it catch it early" is a significant point IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And actually having enough slack/capacity in their health services to treat significant numbers of people. 

My wife who works in the NHS in an area that tracks available resources beds/doctors/nurses told me that yesterday nationally there were less than 10 beds available suitable for supporting people with severe respiratory issues.   

Best to get it ASAP if you want to have any chance of receiving effective care, in the event that you are one of the unfortunates whose lungs are affected.  

Given how infectious this is looking, I was actually thinking the same. Get it now and if you are unlucky enough to get a serious case you at least stand a good chance of getting proper treatment. You don't want to wait until the hospital system is overwhelmed a la Wuhan as the result will be the same for UK patients as it was for those in China.

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2 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

Thank the lord that the cruise ship has been allowed to dock... in Cambodia 😆

Cambodia is a country flagged as massively under reporting COVID-19 cases.

Into the fire..

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53 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Given how infectious this is looking, I was actually thinking the same. Get it now and if you are unlucky enough to get a serious case you at least stand a good chance of getting proper treatment. You don't want to wait until the hospital system is overwhelmed a la Wuhan as the result will be the same for UK patients as it was for those in China.

From what I've read getting it doesn't necessarily give you immunity. Ie you could have it, recover, then get it again a few weeks later. Bit like a cold.

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8 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

From what I've read getting it doesn't necessarily give you immunity. Ie you could have it, recover, then get it again a few weeks later. Bit like a cold.

You can't re-catch the same cold.

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7 hours ago, rollover said:

Why not to ask EU friends for help?

There’s no provision for this sort of mutual aid in the EU, although it would be a good idea.

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6 minutes ago, Will! said:

There’s no provision for this sort of mutual aid in the EU, although it would be a good idea.

It depends on the type of problem. You could envisage it like insurance. If you pay into being the member of a large group that you can draw on the resources of the group if you have an emergency. That works in the event the emergency is localised, so for example an earthquake, and only a small number are drawing on the resources of the greater number.

It fails completely of course if the emergency is EU wide, when everyone fights to get hold of the resource simultaneously. If anything it would be the end of the EU, as it would emphasis splits on a country basis, and the EU would have to prioritise who gets the resource.

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7 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

It depends on the type of problem. You could envisage it like insurance. If you pay into being the member of a large group that you can draw on the resources of the group if you have an emergency. That works in the event the emergency is localised, so for example an earthquake, and only a small number are drawing on the resources of the greater number.

It fails completely of course if the emergency is EU wide, when everyone fights to get hold of the resource simultaneously. If anything it would be the end of the EU, as it would emphasis splits on a country basis, and the EU would have to prioritise who gets the resource.

Think about it.  A pandemic will be EU-wide.

Any mass imports of infectious patients into a country will cause riots.

Likewise any transfers of health resources from one country to another will cause bother.

  It ain't going to happen.

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And actually having enough slack/capacity in their health services to treat significant numbers of people. 

My wife who works in the NHS in an area that tracks available resources beds/doctors/nurses told me that yesterday nationally there were less than 10 beds available suitable for supporting people with severe respiratory issues.   

Best to get it ASAP if you want to have any chance of receiving effective care, in the event that you are one of the unfortunates whose lungs are affected.  

And yet ministers appear on TV and radio telling us that the NHS is very well prepared for an epidemic. 

I knew it wasn't the truth, because the NHS can't cope with what it is meant to be doing now, never mind a Covid-19 epidemic on top.

 

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

This thread needs to move on to the real issue:

Anyone who gets it, you know where to hang out to ensure maximum boomer exposure? Joking of course 😇

 

Take a cruise?

You'd probably take out 5% of the UKs buy to letters! 

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1 hour ago, Chrippie said:

From what I've read getting it doesn't necessarily give you immunity. Ie you could have it, recover, then get it again a few weeks later. Bit like a cold.

Where did you read this?

The outbreak is only around 7 weeks old and there are still little information about the virus.

But I'm not saying you are wrong.

 

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2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Because Eu states, with their leaders and health services responsible to their local electorates will prioritise their local electorates first.

The only thing the EU would be good for is coming up with regulation EU 3463/316.B which would advise not catching the thing in the first place, and also devising 100s of commitees staffed by well paid buracrats to discuss the situation. And by the time they came to any conclusion then the disease would be over.

Now you're just sounding silly, aren't you?

Don't get deluded, many EU countries provide better healthcare service and cheaper than UK.

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3 minutes ago, rollover said:

Where did you read this?

The outbreak is only around 7 weeks old and there are still little information about the virus.

But I'm not saying you are wrong.

 

When you get a disease you build up antibodies and these get rid of it. The question is more how fast it is mutating, and whether or not the types of mutation mean new antibodies have to be generated by the body to fight it, or whether the old ones are still effective. This is why flu.cold is seasonal. It mutates and the old antibodies that were generated for the previous flu are not effective.

My guess is that only the Chinese have enough data to figure out whether it is mutating quickly or not. I don't know whether or not they have released that information.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-researchers-warned-alert-mutations-could-speed-disease/

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Common sense tells you, keep away from unknown others, do not travel on public transport, do not touch eyes and mouth with hands until washed if pushing public toilet doors or touching anything others touch outside home...going for a walk with a dog is low risk.😉

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4 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

This thread needs to move on to the real issue:

Anyone who gets it, you know where to hang out to ensure maximum boomer exposure? Joking of course 😇

 

I was thinking the ideal home exhibition 😂

Though I see events are actually now being cancelled. Mobile World Congress and the Chinese Grand Prix all gone!

There must be some massive insurance claims!

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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6 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Because Eu states, with their leaders and health services responsible to their local electorates will prioritise their local electorates first.

The only thing the EU would be good for is coming up with regulation EU 3463/316.B which would advise not catching the thing in the first place, and also devising 100s of commitees staffed by well paid buracrats to discuss the situation. And by the time they came to any conclusion then the disease would be over.

I realise this isn't the thread for it but I do want to point out that the UK's bureaucrats outnumber the EU's. Pretty sure we're worse at this sort of stuff.

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I was thinking the ideal home exhibition 😂

Though I see events are actually now being cancelled. Mobile World Congress and the Chinese Grand Prix all gone!

There must be some massive insurance claims!

Also I'm sure there are a few property auctions coming up! 

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4 hours ago, winkie said:

Common sense tells you, keep away from unknown others, do not travel on public transport, do not touch eyes and mouth with hands until washed if pushing public toilet doors or touching anything others touch outside home...going for a walk with a dog is low risk.😉

That's all when and good but what if you work in an office where people travel widely?  I work alongside a man who has just gone to India somewhere not far from the Kerala region to get married.  The wedding is likely to involve him meeting several hundred guests. He is having about 3 weeks there before coming back.  I wonder if he should self isolate as a matter of course when he comes back in case he does bring the virus back.

Edited by Shamus

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8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And actually having enough slack/capacity in their health services to treat significant numbers of people. 

My wife who works in the NHS in an area that tracks available resources beds/doctors/nurses told me that yesterday nationally there were less than 10 beds available suitable for supporting people with severe respiratory issues.   

Best to get it ASAP if you want to have any chance of receiving effective care, in the event that you are one of the unfortunates whose lungs are affected.  

They have emergency plans to turn entire hospitals into dedicated treatment centre for this disease. The danger is not they won't treat you for coronavirus, but that some other serious condition won't be treated because you will become a low priority.

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  • 314 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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