Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
LetsBuild

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, longgone said:

£2k a week i will happily provide my services. 

That's my Boy!! I will do it for 0.5 BTC a week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Several of my wife's immediate colleagues are currently self isolating after developing symptoms, they don't know for sure they have it because none have yet been tested (ridiculous as these are consultants, some of whom probably have colds etc and could be back at work if tested)     

Clucking omnishambles. And now the goons responsible are isolating themselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does now seem to be a steady stream of deaths popping up with perhaps some relationship to the lockdown. 

Won't comment on the details of this one, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8170897/Police-launch-murder-probe-family-four-dead.html but will remark that in true Daily Mail Style they managed to get the house price in the headline. 

Even the Daily Mail comments section getting comments attacking its reporting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Does now seem to be a steady stream of deaths popping up with perhaps some relationship to the lockdown. 

Won't comment on the details of this one, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8170897/Police-launch-murder-probe-family-four-dead.html but will remark that in true Daily Mail Style they managed to get the house price in the headline. 

Even the Daily Mail comments section getting comments attacking its reporting. 

I reckon the dad did it when his discovered his wife and mother / mother in law and the rest of the family had spent all his money on 40,000 toilet rolls filling yo his double garage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Does now seem to be a steady stream of deaths popping up with perhaps some relationship to the lockdown. 

Won't comment on the details of this one, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8170897/Police-launch-murder-probe-family-four-dead.html but will remark that in true Daily Mail Style they managed to get the house price in the headline. 

Even the Daily Mail comments section getting comments attacking its reporting. 

500k mansion LOL 

is is too early yo make an offer on the house ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, reddog said:

Belgium's numbers seem to be growing rapidly, is there something unusual about their control model, or could it be some of their people won't socially distance? 

Nothing special, just the expected exponential growth in cases.

UK numbers are an outlier, probably due to state censorship.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I guess COVID19 is the disease, it is possible to have the virus and not the disease. 

Yes, I guess this is because the virus is new and if your body hasn't seen it before, ingesting/breathing in large quantities will result in large numbers of cells being invaded and damaged. If you body recognises it, then probably you mount a better defence and secondly your body won't produce loads of virus itself to virally load yourself and other people. 

I do slightly wonder if in the end we may realise hospitals are contributing to the spread and death count.  With the Spanish Flu they set up medical camps which probably concentrated the viral load, I suspect hospitals may be the modern equivalent. 

May be the secret is to safe immunity is regular small exposures to the virus. 

I haven't seen any explanation of how this could be the case. Once you become infected the virus will replicate rapidly to billions of times more than the initial "load".    

Until there is an explanation of the mechanism that supports this theory I think it is best to disregard it.   Certainly I wouldn't try to gain immunity by having a small exposure, it might be the equivalent to trying to gain immunity from machine gun bullets by letting yourself be hit by just a few. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, markyh said:

I reckon the dad did it when his discovered his wife and mother / mother in law and the rest of the family had spent all his money on 40,000 toilet rolls filling yo his double garage.

The savvy would of installed a bidet at a one off cost. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I guess COVID19 is the disease, it is possible to have the virus and not the disease. 

Yes, I guess this is because the virus is new and if your body hasn't seen it before, ingesting/breathing in large quantities will result in large numbers of cells being invaded and damaged. If you body recognises it, then probably you mount a better defence and secondly your body won't produce loads of virus itself to virally load yourself and other people. 

I do slightly wonder if in the end we may realise hospitals are contributing to the spread and death count.  With the Spanish Flu they set up medical camps which probably concentrated the viral load, I suspect hospitals may be the modern equivalent. 

May be the secret is to safe immunity is regular small exposures to the virus. 

 

 

They're testing for COVID-19:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Detection_of_virus

If the numbers given in the table here are reliable it would pour water on the theory that there are thousands let alone millions, of asymptomatic cases.

For example, 10 days ago Spain had tested 355'000 people of which 25'000 tested positive. As of yesterday, Italy had tested 437'000 people of which 101'000 had tested positive.

You can see why Governments all over the world are taking such drastic measures judging by these stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, longgone said:

£2k a week i will happily provide my services. 

:)

Doesn't it slightly trouble you that times of need have found you out to be less than worthless ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, pig said:

:)

Doesn't it slightly trouble you that times of need have found you out to be less than worthless ?

unless you are a doctor or nurse or work for tesco delivering food everyone is now useless even those in their overpaid traditional  non jobs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, longgone said:

unless you are a doctor or nurse or work for tesco delivering food everyone is now useless even those in their overpaid traditional  non jobs. 

Lol that £2000/hr went up in smoke quick ! 

I though you responding to the idea of volunteering ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pig said:

Lol that £2000/hr went up in smoke quick ! 

I though you responding to the idea of volunteering ?

define volunteering  ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, longgone said:

unless you are a doctor or nurse or work for tesco delivering food everyone is now useless even those in their overpaid traditional  non jobs. 

I've just taken a £400k order and have another for  over £1m that I can drag out until June... 

Guess it gives me a safe job until at least the end of August... 

Not everything needs to be done face to face. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I've just taken a £400k order and have another for  over £1m that I can drag out until June... 

Guess it gives me a safe job until at least the end of August... 

Not everything needs to be done face to face. 

 

pablo escobar is alive 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, longgone said:

£2k a week i will happily provide my services. 

Volunteering is the act of providing your skills and services for free. Your country needs you now more than ever so it’s time you stepped up to the plate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Latest study from china,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-coronavirus-study-reveals-increased-risks-from-middle-age
 

people under 20 have a 0.02% probability of being hopitalised and a higher survival rate. There are 20m people in this range in the uk, this corresponds to 1-2k people. Around 4k in this range die from suicide and accidents every year. There has already been an increase in murder suicide Due to isolation reported, is it worth it?

Un f**kin’ believable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, longgone said:

500k mansion LOL 

is is too early yo make an offer on the house ?

They are about 3 miles from where I live. Lovely part of Sussex. We are sick here, as that was my first thought when I saw the headlines. I would buy there!

Seriously, how could anyone live there after such an horrendous tragedy. I don’t think I could. Must have been up to his eyes in debt and realised it was all over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, longgone said:

unless you are a doctor or nurse or work for tesco delivering food everyone is now useless even those in their overpaid traditional  non jobs. 

I normally work from home, but since all our head office have taken to working from home, I am doing more hours than before because of all the useless webex meetings (I am in one now as I write this!). Nothing productive, just lots of people trying to look like they are doing something. Driving me nuts. At least I am getting paid, and keeping my job. Pharma always survives recessions in pretty good shape. Been through 3 now and not seen any lay offs.

Edited by HovelinHove

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I haven't seen any explanation of how this could be the case. Once you become infected the virus will replicate rapidly to billions of times more than the initial "load".    

Until there is an explanation of the mechanism that supports this theory I think it is best to disregard it.   Certainly I wouldn't try to gain immunity by having a small exposure, it might be the equivalent to trying to gain immunity from machine gun bullets by letting yourself be hit by just a few. 

Well my view is that if you get say 10 virus fragments in one initial dose and it infects 10 cells the body can handle that an learn from it. If you get 400 million virus fragments in one exposure that has to be worse. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I normally work from home, but since all our head office have taken to working from home, I am doing more hours than before because of all the useless webex meetings (I am in one now as I write this!). Nothing productive, just lots of people trying to look like they are doing something. Driving me nuts. At least I am getting paid, and keeping my job. Pharma always survives recessions in pretty good shape. Been through 3 now and not seen any lay offs.

I've noticed that too, been dragged into more useless calls, often by new people who I guess are quite nervous. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.