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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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25 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

UK can currently test 1000 per day

Noted.

OK then "What would YOU do when faced with the situation that you have capacity to test *1,000* people (say) in a city where 230,000 people might have come into contact with the infection?"

The point is you can't test everyone so it's not "covering up" to only ask a fraction of them in for testing.

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14 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Some footage from Wuhan streets...

 

Weirdly like a British Post apocalyptic Scifi film

 

Very peaceful. No jazz in a built up area.

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8 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Noted.

OK then "What would YOU do when faced with the situation that you have capacity to test *1,000* people (say) in a city where 230,000 people might have come into contact with the infection?"

The point is you can't test everyone so it's not "covering up" to only ask a fraction of them in for testing.

Why not to ask EU friends for help?

Something like hello friends, we left you two weeks ago I know it's still fresh, but could you help us with coronavirus testing?

We have somehow mishandled and underestimated the likelihood of this happening here.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, rollover said:

Why not to ask EU friends for help?

Something like hello friends, we left you two weeks ago I know it's still fresh, but could you help us with coronavirus testing?

We have somehow mishandled and underestimated the likelihood of this happening here.

Have we?  What do you think we should have done differently?  How much contingency planning do you think happens behind the scenes in the government and NHS that the public doesn't even see (yet)?

Other EU countries are, presumably, too busy testing their own populations to help us - France and Germany (for example) already have more cases than the UK...

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18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Have we?  What do you think we should have done differently?  How much contingency planning do you think happens behind the scenes in the government and NHS that the public doesn't even see (yet)?

Other EU countries are, presumably, too busy testing their own populations to help us - France and Germany (for example) already have more cases than the UK...

It could be only your best guess right now, but how can you be so sure about that?

If you said confirmed cases, you will be correct.

 

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18 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

You obviously missed my poor attempt at Gallows humour!

Hopefully after 3 weeks the virus will have lost its impact - or perhaps mutated into an even more dangerous Royal Mail strain when it infects other parcels superspreader style?

What annoys me is that all the people with commercial interests at stake are blatantly pretending that there is zero risk from posted items.  If you read the report below (which covered SARS and Corona Viruses generally), you'll realise it isn't zero risk at all, but highly temperature dependent. If your package from China has travelled in a low temperature environment (likely this time of year) and someone with COVID-19 has sneezed on it, then there is a good chance you could pick something up if you then wipe your eyes/nose or mouth. 

As stated by many, hand washing is important. I will confess, I have also sanitised a couple of parcels recently received from China with some of those specialist anti-viral/bacterial kitchen sanitiser wipes.

The problem should reduce fairly soon as the weather will start to warm up come spring, but if I was cautious I'd say don't buy from Amazon or Ebay if you don't know where the seller is located.

 

Report Link >>>>>>>>

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%). There was also evidence of an interaction between AT and RH. 

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41 minutes ago, rollover said:

It could be only your best guess right now, but how can you be so sure about that?

If you said confirmed cases, you will be correct.

Confirmed cases is (obviously) what I meant.

Rather than pick holes in what I wrote, why not answer the actual question: What do you think the UK  should have done differently? 

It's easy to criticise - not so easy to do better.

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8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Confirmed cases is (obviously) what I meant.

Rather than pick holes in what I wrote, why not answer the actual question: What do you think the UK  should have done differently? 

It's easy to criticise - not so easy to do better.

Closely cooperate with China, they went through this early stages in December and beginning of January.

 

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Oppos. Sky news says 18 confirmed cases  in the Uk now. It as 2 12 days ago. We are ******ed unless it’s mainly Eastern Asian Uk people who start dieing, and Caucasian, black and Indian Asian people seem much more hardy.

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Have we?  What do you think we should have done differently? 

Without doubt, the UK should have closed its borders via a 14 day isolation policy, beginning at the start of January. 

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23 minutes ago, markyh said:

Oppos. Sky news says 18 confirmed cases  in the Uk now. It as 2 12 days ago. We are ******ed unless it’s mainly Eastern Asian Uk people who start dieing, and Caucasian, black and Indian Asian people seem much more hardy.

Death rate in China is apparently reducing, even though the number of severe cases is increasing. Several observers have questioned the accuracy of Chinese statistics.

Funnily enough, China is allowing people back to work..no connection surely.

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Quote

 

British inmate 'showed no sign' of coronavirus before extradition

A British prison showed no sign of fever before he was transferred from Thailand to the United Kingdom, a senior Corrections Department officials said on Wednesday. A medical check prior to the extradition of Mark Rumble, 31, to the UK on Jan 27 did not reveal any illness. His body temperature was 36.6C and the lung x-ray was normal, the official said.

bangkokpost

 

SKY news had already reported it, but still can't find any better link to it.

I think this  clarification is open to questions.

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2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Without doubt, the UK should have closed its borders via a 14 day isolation policy, beginning at the start of January. 

You're literally saying that no people should have been allowed into the UK from 1 January 2020, no matter where they came from?

I guess it would help keep Coronavirus out.  I would also leave thousands of UK nationals on holidays and business trips stranded abroad for months, including those nowhere near China.  Is that really sensible or workable?

I'm playing devil's advocate because I honestly don't think it's as simple as people seem to make out.

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15 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

You're literally saying that no people should have been allowed into the UK from 1 January 2020, no matter where they came from?

I guess it would help keep Coronavirus out.  I would also leave thousands of UK nationals on holidays and business trips stranded abroad for months, including those nowhere near China.  Is that really sensible or workable?

I think you are smart enough to work out that I didn't mean that. Obviously only from affected countries.

 

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18 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I think you are smart enough to work out that I didn't mean that. Obviously only from affected countries.

 

Oh sorry I honestly didn’t realise you meant that. Yes makes more sense!!

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3 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

The answer to the question in the thread title is "no"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/12/european-us-stock-markets-record-highs-coronavirus-fears-stock-markets-business-live

We'll just have to consider other ways of eliminating the asset hoarders

CB`s are pumping like mad behind the scenes, they can`t control the real economy in the same way though. Bloomberg etc. would talk up anything that says Greed is Good, it will change in a day or two and there will be red on the board, I had planned to allocate some money to the Dax as a sort of liquid bridge to falling emerging markets but it is going up not down, might have to invest in more direct EM funds?

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27 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

And also economically inconvenient as well for many businesses?

Will not be good for the local business and tourism. Surely many people who visit the grand prix also engage in tourism and spend money locally in restaurants etc. There are also a lot of peripheral activities like fashion shows held alongside. wouldn't surprise me if activity generated over 100 million locally and possibly much more.

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6 hours ago, rollover said:

Why not to ask EU friends for help?

Something like hello friends, we left you two weeks ago I know it's still fresh, but could you help us with coronavirus testing?

We have somehow mishandled and underestimated the likelihood of this happening here.

 

 

Because Eu states, with their leaders and health services responsible to their local electorates will prioritise their local electorates first.

The only thing the EU would be good for is coming up with regulation EU 3463/316.B which would advise not catching the thing in the first place, and also devising 100s of commitees staffed by well paid buracrats to discuss the situation. And by the time they came to any conclusion then the disease would be over.

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5 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

What annoys me is that all the people with commercial interests at stake are blatantly pretending that there is zero risk from posted items.  If you read the report below (which covered SARS and Corona Viruses generally), you'll realise it isn't zero risk at all, but highly temperature dependent. If your package from China has travelled in a low temperature environment (likely this time of year) and someone with COVID-19 has sneezed on it, then there is a good chance you could pick something up if you then wipe your eyes/nose or mouth. 

As stated by many, hand washing is important. I will confess, I have also sanitised a couple of parcels recently received from China with some of those specialist anti-viral/bacterial kitchen sanitiser wipes.

The problem should reduce fairly soon as the weather will start to warm up come spring, but if I was cautious I'd say don't buy from Amazon or Ebay if you don't know where the seller is located.

 

Report Link >>>>>>>>

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%). There was also evidence of an interaction between AT and RH. 

There is zero risk, which is impossible, and very low risk. The timescales make it almost impossible on edit ship cargo. Air freight their is more of an issue, both because of the hold temperature and timescale. You've got far more chance of catching norovirus, which is really quite hardy.

If I see someone in an NBC suit outside their house burning cardboard and polythene I'll know who it is.

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug

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  • 314 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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