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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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To add to the debate about masks:

In Austria it is going to be compulsory to wear them to go into a grocery store. I wonder if Austria have got their own experts advising the Government? As I've said, they will be common place if not outright mandatory soon enough and with very good reason.

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1 hour ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

Bizarre isn't it? The wearing of masks should go hand-in-hand with social-distancing. Anything strapped to your face is better than nothing. They'll soon become the norm though without a doubt.

A hankerchief only attains 28% reduction in particles though.  For all we know that might correspond to almost zero reduction in infection risk.

Suspect paper towel is even worse because hardly any of the air will go through the paper itself, it will simply find channels.

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22 minutes ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

To add to the debate about masks:

In Austria it is going to be compulsory to wear them to go into a grocery store. I wonder if Austria have got their own experts advising the Government? As I've said, they will be common place if not outright mandatory soon enough and with very good reason.

I am pretty sure all the scientists have access to much the same data and draw similar conclusions. The different approaches will be down to what politicians decide to do based on that advice. Some will put country first, others party first and a few themselves first.

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43 minutes ago, winkie said:

It was dry when I soaked in in baby bottle steralising fluid......good enough for baby good enough for me.....must be completely dry before reusing.....😉

According to the article washing them makes the filter much less effective, better to leave in a warn place to dry and all the virus will be gone/inactive by the morning.

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52 minutes ago, winkie said:

It was dry when I soaked in in baby bottle steralising fluid......good enough for baby good enough for me.....must be completely dry before reusing.....😉

Unfortunately it seems washing masks in anything, even isopropanol, decreases their filtration efficiency...

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3 hours ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

I think the U.S. will fare far worse than most of the countries in Europe.

Yeah, this will be a near death experience or final destruction for their privatised health "care" racket.

And the Federal/State response to disasters in recent decades seems mixed as best, being especially damning with Hurricane Katrina (due to the horrifying amount of corruption, gross mismanagement, and dogged outdated ideology).

Trump fired the best and brightest in the CDC, allegedly.

Edited by Big Orange

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

It has all the hallmarks of quack science. Underpowered studies, no controls, selective release of aggregated data, sloppy errors in data handling, stories from students and postdocs about an authoritarian research leader who is not open to data which disagrees with his hypothesis.

I think your wish for chloroquine to work is blinding you to the weakness of the clinical data.

When the Gilead remdesivir data comes out next month it will likely show everybody how clinical trials of this sort should be done: properly powered studies, pre-defined endpoints which are either met or not met, measurement of multiple biomarkers and data reporting at the level of individual patients etc. Gilead have successfully developed some amazing antivirals like Harvoni and they did it through good science.

Wait, so when Chinese/S.Korea/Dutch/US drug authorities recommend chloroquine for off label use, its quack science, but when the very same authorities  recommend off-label remdesivir , for the very same reason its amazing/properly done/successful.

The Chinese use chloroquine first because its safe to use and other treatments have horrendous side effects.

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1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

Wait, so when Chinese/S.Korea/Dutch/US drug authorities recommend chloroquine for off label use, its quack science, but when the very same authorities  recommend off-label remdesivir , for the very same reason its amazing/properly done/successful.

The Chinese use chloroquine first because its safe to use and other treatments have horrendous side effects.

Medicines regulators don't run clinical trials, clinicians and trial sponsors (usually either companies or academics) do.

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7 minutes ago, prozac said:

Lol. and will this information shoot up the share price.

Its a generic drug that cost peanuts to make. GSK make it in the for instance. It won't even flicker on drug company profits

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1 hour ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

 

Because they're badly advised? Because the people in charge are lying because they're trying not to spread panic? After 9/11 people were advised the air in Manhattan was safe to breathe when it was extremely dangerous and has killed many thousands more than killed in the actual attack. Who knows.

They'll soon be seen as an absolutely essential protective item, though without doubt:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/28/us/nypd-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

 

 

BE4D5D51-3F8B-4BF3-988D-3788DC91CB9E.jpeg

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d

14 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Yeah, this will be a near death experience or final destruction for their privatised health "care" racket.

And the Federal/State response to disasters in recent decades seems mixed as best, being especially damning with Hurricane Katrina (due to the horrifying amount of corruption, gross mismanagement, and dogged outdated ideology).

Trump fired the best and brightest in the CDC, allegedly.

He shut down the Pandemic Planning unit, denied any knowledge of it at a recent press conference and then a video emerged of him crowing about shutting it down. Just another normal day for Trump. 

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Wearing a mask means you are thinking about wanting to protect others not necessarily yourself.....if put it on and remove it correctly without touching face it will help protect the wearer also....in the next few months will see more people wearing them.😉

I've just ordered one of these:

 

B381AE25-2678-4FE5-BCCA-B49714900A9D.jpeg

Probably useless against infectious diseases, but great for a post COVID Party.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Wearing a mask means you are thinking about wanting to protect others not necessarily yourself.....if put it on and remove it correctly without touching face it will help protect the wearer also....in the next few months will see more people wearing them.😉

Absolutely.

I'd say usage has shot up in London to 50%

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

It has all the hallmarks of quack science. Underpowered studies, no controls, selective release of aggregated data, sloppy errors in data handling, stories from students and postdocs about an authoritarian research leader who is not open to data which disagrees with his hypothesis.

I think your wish for chloroquine to work is blinding you to the weakness of the clinical data.

When the Gilead remdesivir data comes out next month it will likely show everybody how clinical trials of this sort should be done: properly powered studies, pre-defined endpoints which are either met or not met, measurement of multiple biomarkers and data reporting at the level of individual patients etc. Gilead have successfully developed some amazing antivirals like Harvoni and they did it through good science.

I worked for Gilead for 5 years in HIV so know how good they are. I agree Raoult is extremely unconventional, and if it was just his data, I wouldn’t be interested, but it made me look much more closely at the Chinese announcement back in February. They had data in 100 patients from 10 different Centers, and on the basis of that a committee of infectious disease experts recommended that China add chloroquine to the COVID-19 treatment guidelines due to its significant effect of getting rid of the virus and improving symptoms vs controls. They have never shared their data which caused everyone to dismiss it, but with Raoult and the Australian studies, it became much more significant. Then there is the in vitro data that shows it is highly selective. there is a huge smear campaign against Raoult. He is probably a *****. I have worked with dozens of academics, and half f them egos that make Trump look modest.

The FDA are saying that the potential benefits outweigh the risks so have released it for use to treat COVID-19 in the US. The WHO have added it to SOLIDARITY where it will go head to head with Remdesivir (and by the way, I worked in the group that developed some of the technology that makes both Remdesivir and Sofosbuvir active). In my many years of experience in pharmaceuticals when you see a number of different studies pointing to the same thing, it doesn’t matter how crap they were, they become evidence. It may be that chrloroquine doesn’t work, but I will be surprised if it doesn’t have some effect...it may need help from other drugs. 

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28 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Medicines regulators don't run clinical trials, clinicians and trial sponsors (usually either companies or academics) do.

Quote

 Remdesivir seems promising in vitro (and in some case reports) but availability will remain a key issue for the coming weeks (very restricted use, to the most severe patients, but with also numerous exclusion criteria [see Table 2], which is unfortunately not the best scenario to test this drug). Several clinical trials are ongoing.   

Treatment cost is going to be what - $25k per patient?

https://www.medchemexpress.com/Remdesivir.html

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

To clean mask.....add seterilising fluid to water in jug, soak mask ten mins and dry completely before reusing.😉

Above link says just take the mask off leave it out to dry for a few days. Wetting the mask will reduce the effectiveness. 

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6 hours ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

More obseity, more diabetes, more high blood pressure, crap diets. A population full of people who are scared to quit their job because they will lose their health insurance hence rapid spread of the virus, plus the increased viral overload because of this. It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers spoken about by Fauci yesterday are closer to those in NY alone when it's all over.

When large numbers of the USA "insured" have no beds, are left to die, and those that do live through treatment are presented with bills so big their insurance wont cover they will be Bankrupt or have to sell their homes, they wont bang on about the NHS being "socialist" and making choices about people dieing based on cost anymore, they will realise that when the chips are down and everyone is in they same boat unless you are rich enough to have personal private facilities and staff just to keep your family alive, irrespective of cost, then having the best care money can buy "for the few" is worthless in a Pandemic.

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I've been watching "Peak Prosperity" who have been following Covid-19 feom very early on...... Well worth watching.... This is yesterdays episode...

 

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So almost 10% of the population of Italy and 3% of the population of the UK are thought to have been infected with coronavirus already. Total deaths 10k and 1k respectively. It's easy maths to do, multiply that up to 60% of the population to get to herd immunity levels and you get 60k total deaths in Italy and 20k in the UK. Those predictions of a few hundred thousand deaths in the UK look very wrong.

Edited by Dorkins

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Projected infection & death rates have been grossly under estimated... I'm a nurse & the national response has been both slow & inadequate & mainly the fault of the politicians 'cherry picking' reports, research & data that suited their position.

The NHS  hasb been massively underfunded for the last decade..... Place the blame exactly where it should be....

Edited by headmelter

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7 minutes ago, headmelter said:

Projected infection & death rates have been grossly under estimated

But these aren't projections, the 3% infected and 1k deaths is the best understanding we have of what has already happened.

Edited by Dorkins

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17 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

So almost 10% of the population of Italy and 3% of the population of the UK are thought to have been infected with coronavirus already. Total deaths 10k and 1k respectively. It's easy maths to do, multiply that up to 60% of the population to get to herd immunity levels and you get 60k total deaths in Italy and 20k in the UK. Those predictions of a few hundred thousand deaths in the UK look very wrong.

Is that right? Don't some react more severely to infection so as you increase 3% to 60% these will become more represented in the final figures? 3% isn't the same as 60%.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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