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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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22 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Great video. It was completely obvious from day one of this COVID-19 nightmare that he was in the pockets of his Chinese pay masters. You are right in pointing out that Dr. John, just like many of the MSM...BBC etc, slavishly repeated what Tedros or the CCP said about the numbers in Wuhan etc. that is one of the reasons why I stopped going to John Campbell's daily feed, and stuck with Chris Martenson instead. John Campbell is naive, and his specialty is nursing, which from my experience tends to lead to a bit more deference towards authority. I think his videos have been great in terms of advice, but a bit light on critical anlysis. My Ph.D. was in medicinal chemistry, creating treatments for HIV and HCV...no deference here!

The WHO operates in the real world and has to suck up to unpleasant regimes of all shades. Tedros came from one of those regimes and probably has done or been involved in things in the past that wouldn't be acceptable in a western democracy.

That said, I got to the end and thought so what.  Even if true, which for all I know it may be, it only means the WHO reflects the very imperfect world we live in. The whole war crimes thing is pointless, if leaders actually had to take responsibility for their actions most would end up in court.  If the West wanted a more western looking/focussed WHO they should have funded it rather than relying on corporations and Chinese money.

     

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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Gove said yesterday that we had purchased and were recieving ventilators from EU states.

Not implausible as it will trained staff not the number of ventilators that will put a hard limit on the number of patients that can be supported on them. 

I am sure we will see wards full of patients hooked up to repurposed Dysons but without the 1 to 1 care normally provided to keep ventilated patients alive it will be little more than a PR exercise. 

I heard from someone yesterday that their medic (not an ER related specialist) wife has been called in to train to operate ventilators. She's receiving 2 days training within a week. Normally the training takes roughly a year. Scary stuff.

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Three cheers for Lord Sumption, the end does not justify the means...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/covid-19-ex-supreme-court-judge-lambasts-disgraceful-policing

A former supreme court justice has heavily criticised Derbyshire police for stopping people exercising in the Peak District saying that such behaviour risks plunging Britain into a “police state”.

Lord Sumption warned that police had no legal power to enforce “ministers’ wishes” and that the public should not be “resigning their liberty” to over-zealous citizens in uniform.

“The behaviour of the Derbyshire police in trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells so people don’t want to go there is frankly disgraceful,” he said.

 

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24 minutes ago, kzb said:

Absolutely, but for those with no choice, mask wearing, even of non-P-rated masks, would likely cut R0 to below 1.  If everyone does it that is.

So you still have a significant individual risk, but it is worth doing to cut the population risk.

I am wearing a mask to reduce my own risk as well.

Wearing a mask can apparently reduce the intial viral load being breathed in due to a Covid 19 infected person coughing on you nearby.

A reduced initial viral load is supposed to reduce the severity of the subsequent Covid 19 illness if you get infected.

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

People don't believe me yet, but I reckon many of us will be working in fields for food within 2 years.

The economy is already half dead with fewer than 0.1% of the population infected.

There are no easy choices here. A lockdown destroys the economy and will probably lead to civil unrest. People in Italy have run out of food and money already and rate of growth is only just beginning to slow. The economic impact could be worse than the virus. There's a good chance the virus will return when the lockdown ends anyway.

If everyone does not stay at home there will be a huge wave of mortality this summer. The NHS will be completely overwhelmed and the death rate will increase. The economy will come to a stop due to sickness.

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46 minutes ago, kzb said:

Absolutely, but for those with no choice, mask wearing, even of non-P-rated masks, would likely cut R0 to below 1.  If everyone does it that is.

So you still have a significant individual risk, but it is worth doing to cut the population risk.

anything is better than nothing probably even a bit of kitchen towel wrapped round your face, it will dispearse the virus and partially block some particles.  

luckily i see absolutely no one around at night, but not stepped outside in 9 days so maybe everyone else has the same idea. only seen 3 people walk past the house all day and maybe 5 cars. 

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2 hours ago, anonguest said:

Joe PUblic DOES NOT have to adhere to the far more (ncessarily) stringent infection prevention protocols that NHS staff have to be able to help achieve meaningful reduction in spread of the virus in the community.

Just putting something, ANYTHING, over their mouth/nose will inhibit the spread of exhaled virus.

IF you cannot fathom/grasp that then I pity you.

Bizarre isn't it? The wearing of masks should go hand-in-hand with social-distancing. Anything strapped to your face is better than nothing. They'll soon become the norm though without a doubt.

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2 minutes ago, Billy Ray Valentine said:

Bizarre isn't it? The wearing of masks should go hand-in-hand with social-distancing. Anything strapped to your face is better than nothing. They'll soon become the norm though without a doubt.

So why don't the police wear them when they're getting up close and personal?

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1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

More data has been released on deaths in treated vs untreated from Marseilles over the weekend which look very promising too.

I agree that this study is absolute dog 5h1te from a GxP perspective. This guy is also a bit of a "character" to put it nicely. However, his is not the only data. If it was just his data, I would be as suspicious and probably dismissive as anyone else. I've seen stuff like this in the past in therapy areas I've worked in like HIV. Just like if it was only the Chinese statement (no data provided but they added to guidelines on the basis of it). I didn't take any notice of that originally. Then there is the in vitro data, and the small Australian cohort study (link to early data in Oz). At some point when there are a number of different signals from different sources all pointing in the same direction, and you have to take notice. 

I am not completely convinced chrloroquine works, on its own, or in combination, but I believe the weight of evidence means that it should be offered to patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19 in the absence of an alternative. I also believe we have reason to be optimistic. Proof will only come from SOLIDARITY or an overwhelming weight of small cohort studies with controls...which may happen soon given how many are doing exactly that.

It has all the hallmarks of quack science. Underpowered studies, no controls, selective release of aggregated data, sloppy errors in data handling, stories from students and postdocs about an authoritarian research leader who is not open to data which disagrees with his hypothesis.

I think your wish for chloroquine to work is blinding you to the weakness of the clinical data.

When the Gilead remdesivir data comes out next month it will likely show everybody how clinical trials of this sort should be done: properly powered studies, pre-defined endpoints which are either met or not met, measurement of multiple biomarkers and data reporting at the level of individual patients etc. Gilead have successfully developed some amazing antivirals like Harvoni and they did it through good science.

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Quote

 

UK ministers accused of overstating scale of coronavirus testing

Ministers have been accused of overstating the scale of coronavirus testing in the UK.

Government still falling far short of meeting claimed target of 10,000 daily tests promised by the government on 11 March and cast doubt on whether it would hit the next target of 25,000 daily tests within a fortnight.

It shows the UK is lagging behind other countries such as Germany, which is testing 70,000 people daily.

Boris Johnson’s official spokesman asked why the UK had a target of 25,000 daily tests while Germany was working on about 70,000 a day, the spokesman said there were difficulties in “getting all the equipment they need to conduct these tests at a time when everybody in the world wants them”.

Guardian

 

It looks like the government tried to save on tests as well.

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28 minutes ago, longgone said:

anything is better than nothing probably even a bit of kitchen towel wrapped round your face, it will dispearse the virus and partially block some particles.  

luckily i see absolutely no one around at night, but not stepped outside in 9 days so maybe everyone else has the same idea. only seen 3 people walk past the house all day and maybe 5 cars. 

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

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24 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

So why don't the police wear them when they're getting up close and personal?

 

Because they're badly advised? Because the people in charge are lying because they're trying not to spread panic? After 9/11 people were advised the air in Manhattan was safe to breathe when it was extremely dangerous and has killed many thousands more than killed in the actual attack. Who knows.

They'll soon be seen as an absolutely essential protective item, though without doubt:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/28/us/nypd-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

 

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I just did my shopping in my full face gasmask. Local coop in the northern parts of Newcastle. 

I had to work up the courage and overcome the sense of embarrassment I was about to dive into. People avoided looking at me , probably something similar to people avoiding Corona beer (repulsion ?). The only other mask (surgical ) I saw was on one of the older staff members (60+ year old male ).

 

So many people are going to get it around here and everywhere else. People came in buying small items like beer or food for a day. I'm avoiding risk by shipping less. I know I'm on the risk avoidance spectrum.....

Edited by Snafu

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6 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

About 50% from what I have read, for the first question. 2-3 weeks on average for the second, sometimes longer with ever decreasing chance of survival. China still has some people on ventilators now.

Only half survive is not that many, two to three weeks on a ventilator without surviving......if a ventilator was not available would they remove someone with less chance of survival to give to another with a better chance of surviving?......not enough ventilators means hard decisions have to be made.....have I heard that before somewhere.😉

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3 hours ago, pig said:

...and for completeness what percentage are not put onto an ICU ventilator in the first place because of low prospects ?

A number.....not because of low prospects but because of low numbers of ventilators available?.😉

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Wearing a mask means you are thinking about wanting to protect others not necessarily yourself.....if put it on and remove it correctly without touching face it will help protect the wearer also....in the next few months will see more people wearing them.😉

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To clean mask.....add seterilising fluid to water in jug, soak mask ten mins and dry completely before reusing.😉

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59 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

It has all the hallmarks of quack science. Underpowered studies, no controls, selective release of aggregated data, sloppy errors in data handling, stories from students and postdocs about an authoritarian research leader who is not open to data which disagrees with his hypothesis.

I think your wish for chloroquine to work is blinding you to the weakness of the clinical data.

When the Gilead remdesivir data comes out next month it will likely show everybody how clinical trials of this sort should be done: properly powered studies, pre-defined endpoints which are either met or not met, measurement of multiple biomarkers and data reporting at the level of individual patients etc. Gilead have successfully developed some amazing antivirals like Harvoni and they did it through good science.

‘Anti-malaria drug can kill coronavirus’: Novartis chief

If it really does have a significant effect, it should soon become apparent.

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1 minute ago, winkie said:

To clean mask.....add seterilising fluid to water in jug, soak mask ten mins and dry completely before reusing.😉

No just leave it to dry and according to the article above it will be sterile. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No just leave it to dry and according to the article above it will be sterile. 

 

It was dry when I soaked in in baby bottle steralising fluid......good enough for baby good enough for me.....must be completely dry before reusing.....😉

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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The NHS instructions for using facemasks are:

  • Wash hands
  • Put on mask
  • Take off and dispose of mask without touching the front of it
  • Wash hands

If this is too complex for the average member of the public we really are in trouble.

The reality is we still do not have enough masks for healthcare workers and the government does not want to exacerbate the problem by recommending their use.

Instead of lying to the public the government should be honest and say that the issue is a shortage and need to prioritise giving them to healthcare workers. It would have avoided losing credibility and may have the added benefit of making people a bit more wary about keeping a safe distance from others. 

People don’t even wash their hands after being to the toilet. So yes it will be too complex for them. 

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