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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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1 minute ago, gp_ said:

Yes, it was.

We should have a points based immigration earlier in the year.

@Chunketh like the T Rex picture. I hate the Spanish Inquisition sketch. The "fanatical devotion to the Pope" stuff is one of those historical inaccuracies that bothers me the way that, for example, anything showing humans and dinosaurs together.

It just popped into my head, I didn't really get it as humour myself even though I love Python in general.

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On 24/01/2020 at 02:29, LetsBuild said:

At the rate China is locking itself down do you think it could be the event to tip the already fragile world economy over the edge?

Yes. Combine the need to quarantine many of their cities for weeks to months with the food supply problems they're having, and the Chinese economy could crash this year.

The question is whether that would be good or bad for the rest of the world. Obviously anyone reliant on trade with China would be in trouble, but the Chinese would be trying to send all their money abroad before they escaped from the quarantine. So it might result in increasing house prices at the same time people are being laid off from failing companies.

It's worth noting that pandemics seem to be more common in solar minimums, probably because of the increase in radiation reaching the surface resulting in a higher rate of mutation in viruses. And the current minimum is the lowest in a couple of hundred years.

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48 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

up from 1400 yesterday to 2000 today, mortality rate holding at around 2.5%

Pretty sure that this is going to be declared as out of control in the next few days

On Wednesday it seemed like there was a bit of a bad cold in a distant Chinese province. By Sunday a population the size of England's is in quarantine and hospitals in the region look like they're overwhelmed. This is the very essence of exponential growth. For a while it looks like nothing is happening, then everything explodes all at once.

If the infection spreads we should see a similar pattern around the world. You wont notice anything particularly untoward at first. Then, seemingly overnight, the whole country goes crazy.

My feeling is that, if it is going to spread, it's probably already here. If you thought you had a cold would you rush off to get tested? No, it's not until the fireworks start that we'll know for sure.

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Interesting to observe that almost all the recommended N99 face masks are sold out on Amazon UK.

Either someone is bulk buying them to make a potential profit later or there are more than the usual numbers taking precautions.

We shall see if they are needed.

Does make you think theoretically how a lockdown and public transport closure would work in a big city like London - we don’t have the structured society or trust in government the Chinese do. It could get quite bad quite quickly as criminal elements take over - summer 2011 isn’t that long ago!

 

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13 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

Of course the communist party will try to put a gloss on the situation, it's core to their dna. The reality of the situation is much worse than what we are hearing. The real death toll at the moment moment is likely more like 560+ than 56.

The fact they are rush building 1,000 bed hospitals tells you everything you need to know.

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Lockdown in London...haha.  I'm sure the acid sprayers, tooled up gang members and non-English speaking Deliveroo drivers will pay a lot of attention to some public health expert in a suit on the TV news that they don't watch. Will one of the ten tenants in some HMO slum dwelling disseminate the contents of an "Important Notice for the Occupier" leaflet to the other residents?   A gravely infectious disease is quite a lot different to aerial bombing by European neighbours but I do wonder how the "Blitz Spirit" would play out in the London of today vs then.

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2 hours ago, Chunketh said:

up from 1400 yesterday to 2000 today, mortality rate holding at around 2.5%

Pretty sure that this is going to be declared as out of control in the next few days

Other official data: 324 in a critical state, 56 dead. The actual numbers are probably higher. They are also a reflection of the state of the infection from 1-2 weeks ago as it takes time for the symptoms to develop. 

China fights now to stop the virus from establishing outbreaks in other regions of China. Inter region bus services have been shut down. 

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1 minute ago, slawek said:

Other official data: 324 in a critical state, 56 dead. The actual numbers are probably higher. They are also a reflection of the state of the infection from 1-2 weeks ago as it takes time for the symptoms to develop. 

China fights now to stop the virus from establishing outbreaks in other regions of China. Inter region bus services have been shut down. 

Yeah they just announced that it can spread before patients have any symptoms and that it can be in incubation for up to 2 weeks. The genie is most definitely out of the bottle. Expect other cases to pop up and rapidly spread in other countries over the next 7 days.

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1 hour ago, Biggus said:

On Wednesday it seemed like there was a bit of a bad cold in a distant Chinese province. By Sunday a population the size of England's is in quarantine and hospitals in the region look like they're overwhelmed. This is the very essence of exponential growth. For a while it looks like nothing is happening, then everything explodes all at once.

If the infection spreads we should see a similar pattern around the world. You wont notice anything particularly untoward at first. Then, seemingly overnight, the whole country goes crazy.

My feeling is that, if it is going to spread, it's probably already here. If you thought you had a cold would you rush off to get tested? No, it's not until the fireworks start that we'll know for sure.

The bad thing about this virus is that it is infectious during the incubation period, which may last up to 14 days. That means that screenings at borders are not effective. 

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-transmission-idUKKBN1ZP093

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2 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Yeah they just announced that it can spread before patients have any symptoms and that it can be in incubation for up to 2 weeks. The genie is most definitely out of the bottle. Expect other cases to pop up and rapidly spread in other countries over the next 7 days.

I've just posted it in another reply. I agree that is quite bad.  The best option is just closing borders but that is a big decision.

There is no data how log the virus can survive in the environment. SARS was estimated to last up to 28 days at 4°C,  in a room temp less.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

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52 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Interesting to observe that almost all the recommended N99 face masks are sold out on Amazon UK.

Either someone is bulk buying them to make a potential profit later or there are more than the usual numbers taking precautions.

We shall see if they are needed.

Does make you think theoretically how a lockdown and public transport closure would work in a big city like London - we don’t have the structured society or trust in government the Chinese do. It could get quite bad quite quickly as criminal elements take over - summer 2011 isn’t that long ago!

 

Could the N99 face masks already be infected by someone like packers or delivery people?

And I was wondering about all the cheap stuff you can buy online coming from China with delivery around 3 - 4 weeks, is it still OK to buy it?

 

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16 minutes ago, slawek said:

I've just posted it in another reply. I agree that is quite bad.  The best option is just closing borders but that is a big decision.

There is no data how log the virus can survive in the environment. SARS was estimated to last up to 28 days at 4°C,  in a room temp less.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Probably too late for that, I think China needs to answer some serious questions about food safety. The wet market practice is disgusting, dangerous and immoral in equal measure.

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10 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Probably too late for that, I think China needs to answer some serious questions about food safety. The wet market practice is disgusting, dangerous and immoral in equal measure.

They have been doing this thousands of years. It is more dangerous now because of the population density and improved interconnectivity.

I think we will soon have a cluster of cases in the UK. If it takes 1-2 weeks for symptoms to appear than one person can infect tens of people before he/she is identified. At this point all will depend how quickly and efficiently another infected people can be isolated. It is going to be tough to do this in places like London, easier in small villages.    

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51 minutes ago, slawek said:

They have been doing this thousands of years. It is more dangerous now because of the population density and improved interconnectivity.

I think we will soon have a cluster of cases in the UK. If it takes 1-2 weeks for symptoms to appear than one person can infect tens of people before he/she is identified. At this point all will depend how quickly and efficiently another infected people can be isolated. It is going to be tough to do this in places like London, easier in small villages.    

It is difficult almost impossible isolate people effectively, because it is difficult to know who was infected, where he moved during the time, how many other people he/ she come to contact with and passed the infection on. And so it goes on and on.

Some people may get infected but never really develop full symptoms of the disease, but only spread it around.

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22 minutes ago, rollover said:

It is difficult almost impossible isolate people effectively, because it is difficult to know who was infected, where he moved during the time, how many other people he/ she come to contact with and passed the infection on. And so it goes on and on.

Some people may get infected but never really develop full symptoms of the disease, but only spread it around.

There is no information that the virus is airborne, to infect other person body fluids need to be passed around. I think it is more difficult to do this when there are no symptoms (coughing, sneezing). 

I agree it could be difficult to contain the infection but it all depends. It is easier for a person living in a smaller village or one who barely goes outside. For a young guy/girl with active lifestyle meeting hundred random people in a big city it is practically impossible,  

 

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3 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

A gravely infectious disease is quite a lot different to aerial bombing by European neighbours but I do wonder how the "Blitz Spirit" would play out in the London of today vs then.

As per my post above we won’t know the country’s resolve for sure until it’s tested.

But don’t fall into the trap of thinking everyone in 1940 was brave and community spirited. Many were. Others crept out after the air raids and took the wedding rings off dead bodies. My suspicion is the same would happen today, ie a mixture of reactions. 

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1 hour ago, rollover said:

It is difficult almost impossible isolate people effectively, because it is difficult to know who was infected, where he moved during the time, how many other people he/ she come to contact with and passed the infection on. And so it goes on and on.

Some people may get infected but never really develop full symptoms of the disease, but only spread it around.

Also no one yet knows what the differential impacts of this and recovery rates are by age or gender or other characteristics such as immunity levels. The Spanish flu post WWI actually reportedly proportionally killed more healthy young people with strong immune systems as their immune systems just went into overdrive and destroyed their lungs.

Talking of the wet markets in China we are also pretty lax and unpleasant in the UK - I was at St Paul’s station yesterday and got off a bus with two young  Chinese girls both wearing masks. Three young guys - lowlife - were just urinating in the street front of the Coop store next to the station in full view - and then they came into the store to shop and bought stuff from the booze fridge and other fridges obviously not having had the chance to wash their hands.

It isn’t necessarily the Chinese in London just arrived backed from home who we need to be most concerned about!

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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22 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Are there any statistics about the impact the bubonic plague had on the housing market in 14th century England?

Seriously though no one knows how deadly this strain is and people can take several days apparently to come down with symptoms while being infectious. So it may not be the person coughing and sneezing you need to worry about avoiding as they probably just have a cold!

And you wouldn’t really expect the Chinese government by nature to be totally honest about what is going on at all. They can shut down internet traffic and communications there very easily.

I'm not sure that type of data was collected back then. But there are recounts of wages surging, so I assuming the workers had more bargaining power as there were less of them available. 

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15 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I'm not sure that type of data was collected back then. But there are recounts of wages surging, so I assuming the workers had more bargaining power as there were less of them available. 

Reportedly half those who died in the Spanish flu were aged 20-40. Normal flu generally kills the elderly and children.

It may have been due to higher levels of migration post war, less immunity from previous flu outbreaks or a cytokine storm arising from their stronger immune systems going into overdrive to fight it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

It killed twice as many people as soldiers who died on the battlefield in WWI. Were it not for Downton Abbey - it killed Matthew’s fiance so he could get back with Mary - I doubt most Brits would have heard much about it at all.

Edited by MARTINX9
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