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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

This lockdown must be the most expensive public health measure in history. Say £300bn to save 100,000 quality-adjusted life years, that's about £3m per QALY. Usually NICE won't fund anything costing more than £25k per QALY I believe so we're about a factor of 100 past that. It's a theoretical argument though, given the emotional state of the nation the government has no choice but lockdown.

Is this including the people who recover, but have shortened life expectancies and ongoing health problems?

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7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Ok, sorry.

Makes for some sobering reading

"Received advanced respiratory support" are the key words. 

Most people on ICU don't have any severe underlying medical conditions. 50% die anyway and 66% who are invasively ventilated die.

Edited by Clarky Cat

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2 minutes ago, slawek said:

This doesn't have much impact on the average death age. London is around 50% of cases,  to have overall average age 65y and  80y outside of London,  London average death age would have to be 50y,  which is very unlikely. 

The death rate dependence on age is quite steep,  younger London population will have less people in ICU but the distribution will be only slightly shifted to left.  

I gave the exact calculation above, yours is naive, it depends on the distributions, but to put a counter example suppose everyone who died in london is 60 and 1/2 of deaths are there and outside is a gaussian distribution centred on 78 but with a wide spread from 53-103, then what that would give an average of 65 but not represent reality.

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7 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Is this including the people who recover, but have shortened life expectancies and ongoing health problems?

How many of those are there? Not many people who get coronavirus will develop pneumonia.

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On 18/03/2020 at 09:03, ticket2ride said:

Lots of threads on mumsnet about this. Londerers being advised less than politely that they won't be welcome in places like southwest and Norfolk, where they have holiday homes.

  

On 18/03/2020 at 09:50, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Link or it didn’t happen. 

 

Coronavirus: Devon 'vigilantes' target family with second home

A car owned by a family with a second home was daubed with "Go Home" amid a series of "vigilante" attacks.

The attack at Bigbury-on-Sea, in Devon, was one of a range of similar incidents across the region, said police.

Victim Tony Willis, who arrived with his family before the coronavirus travel ban, said he was sick of being targeted.

Devon and Cornwall Chief Constable Shaun Sawyer said the behaviour was "unacceptable".....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52067211

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

How many of those are there? Not many people who get coronavirus will develop pneumonia.

Given that one of the features of Covid-19 is a viral pneumonia, the vast majority of people being admitted to hospital will have pneumonia. It's one of the diagnostic features on a chest x-ray!

Edited by Clarky Cat

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Second home owners down the road turned up a few days ago, car with the vanity plate car but no sign of their dedicated holiday VW Transporter.  Thought they were down here to lay low but only seemed to hang around a day or two, perhaps they came for their bog roll.

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

How many of those are there? Not many people who get coronavirus will develop pneumonia.

I think this is one of several questions on which there is uncertainty. The response may be extreme when compared to expected deaths (more so in terms of QALYs), but reasonable when considering various bad case scenarios.

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15 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

I gave the exact calculation above, yours is naive, it depends on the distributions, but to put a counter example suppose everyone who died in london is 60 and 1/2 of deaths are there and outside is a gaussian distribution centred on 78 but with a wide spread from 53-103, then what that would give an average of 65 but not represent reality.

The overall average in your example would be (60+78)/2 = 69  not 65 observed.

Mathematically 

E(X) = E(X|A) *P(A) + E(X| not A) * P(not A)

In your example

A - death in London. P(A) =  P(not A) = 0.5

X - death age, E(X|A) = 60, E(X| not A) = 78

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23 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

Makes for some sobering reading

"Received advanced respiratory support" are the key words. 

Most people on ICU don't have any severe underlying medical conditions. 50% die anyway and 66% who are invasively ventilated die.

And 25% of the 15-49 age group die if ventilated.

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43 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

So with China not publishing their real figures, surely something truly horrific went down there?  I remember them showing a digital board, which had shocking figures on it, then magically updates with 10 times less

i guess the original figures were actually true. 

It could have been hacked or even fat-fingered, then corrected. Worldometers was reporting almost a million cases in the Vatican City briefly (I saw a suggestion that this was an attempt to trick naïve trading algorithms). 

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4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

And 25% of the 15-49 age group die if ventilated.

Indeed. try selling the "we'll only ventilate you if you're under 50" line to the GBP!

Although the 25% is actually ICU care, so it doesn't say how many were invasively ventilated.

Edited by Clarky Cat

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44 minutes ago, smash said:

Despite agreeing with people that the western response has been poor I think that the world now has to have an interest in what goes on in those Chinese "food" markets. You want to eat cats and dogs and pangolins and bats, fine but we want to know whats going on.

We have known what goes on for many years. This pandemic was the most widely expected and predictable event on  government planning. In a few more years there will be another one.

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Now this is the weirdest story so far:

German state finance minister 'kills himself' as officials claim he was in despair over the coronavirus crisis 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164881/Death-German-finance-official-linked-virus-crisis.html

Makes it sound like an accountant who couldn't handle the profligacy.  Is this the German fear of hyperinflation? 

 

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5 minutes ago, slawek said:

The overall average in your example would be (60+78)/2 = 69  not 65 observed.

Mathematically 

E(X) = E(X|A) *P(A) + E(X| not A) * P(not A)

In your example

A - death in London. P(A) =  P(not A) = 0.5

X - death age, E(X|A) = 60, E(X| not A) = 78

But it would not be a Gaussian in realty and the age distributions are skewed differently

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9 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I think this is one of several questions on which there is uncertainty. The response may be extreme when compared to expected deaths (more so in terms of QALYs), but reasonable when considering various bad case scenarios.

It seems you can recover from ARDS, it's not a lifelong condition but it can take up to 15 years:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-survivors-lung-damage-ards-fcim-intensive-care-research-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

It's also responsible for 10% of ICU admissions in the UK so is not unique to coronavirus.

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7 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

It could have been hacked or even fat-fingered, then corrected. Worldometers was reporting almost a million cases in the Vatican City briefly (I saw a suggestion that this was an attempt to trick naïve trading algorithms). 

Worldometers was hacked.

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1 minute ago, debtlessmanc said:

But it would not be a Gaussian in realty and the age distributions are skewed differently

It doesn't matter. The means will follow maths whatever the distributions are.

 

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47 minutes ago, prozac said:

Lets see what happens  in the US, they have been eating lots of unhealthy E numbers, this must have some effect on there immune system.

I think the US will do better than people expect.

It has many times more more critical care beds than the UK and, despite having a Moron for a president, the fact that the states have a lot of devolved authority/resources will mean that at the local level the correct decisions can be taken  

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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8 minutes ago, slawek said:

It doesn't matter. The means will follow maths whatever the distributions are.

 

No they will not! I cannot be bothered now, but tomorrow I will get hold of the its

italian and uk age distributions and do it properly.

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7 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

I think the US will do better than people expect.

It has many times more more critical care beds than the UK and, despite having a Moron for a president, the fact that the states have a lot of devolved authority/resources will mean that at the local level the correct decisions can be taken  

They had a plan

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

And stockpiles

Quote

Strategic National Stockpile is the nation’s largest supply of life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical supplies for use in a public health emergency severe enough to cause local supplies to run out.

When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance to support their response efforts, the stockpile ensures that the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most during an emergency. Organized for scalable response to a variety of public health threats, this repository contains enough supplies to respond to multiple large-scale emergencies simultaneously

https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2727308/

 

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2 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

No they will not! I cannot be bothered now, but tomorrow I will get hold of the its

italian and uk age distributions and do it properly.

The proof is trivial. Basic A-level maths. 

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • up 5%



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