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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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44 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Anecdotal: in laws just got back from all inclusive holiday abroad after having had flight brought forward. Went straight to supermarket. "Annoyed" they couldn't get pasta. ūüėĶ

Did they come straight out of German big brother?

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3 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

The question that needs answering is why the UK didn't hault all air travel once the super spreader was identified?
Could have bailed out the airlines and travel industry and all gone about our daily business. Cheaper and less dead.

That would have been "impossible", apparently.

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2 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Did they come straight out of German big brother?

Pretty much confined to their room. And too tight to pay the $25 daily wifi charge. Still mind boggling. Family told them not to go.

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Quote

'Coronavirus coughing' at emergency workers could lead to two years in jail, says CPS

The¬†Crown Prosecution Service¬†has put out¬†a statement today¬†saying that anyone using ‚Äúcoronavirus coughs‚ÄĚ to threaten emergency worker could face serious criminal charges. It follows reports that police officers, shop workers and others have been coughed at by people claiming to have the disease.

The CPS says that using coughing in this way as a threat could lead to someone being charged with common assault. And it says that assaults specifically against emergency workers are punishable by up to two years in prison.

Better to be tasered that 2 years in jail

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11 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Pretty much confined to their room. And too tight to pay the $25 daily wifi charge. Still mind boggling. Family told them not to go.

Chat in the office is currently  'When this is over, everyone will be booking foreign holidays for September, everyone will want holidays at the same time. Prices not coming down yet"  etc. etc.

Dream on morons.

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18 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Chat in the office is currently  'When this is over, everyone will be booking foreign holidays for September, everyone will want holidays at the same time. Prices not coming down yet"  etc. etc.

Dream on morons.

I nearly booked August flights at 25% off. Luckily Mrs ticket2ride vetoed it.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I had never heard of it before but it's as big as London and even now looking at November Skyscanner shows 2 direct flights a day from London, with another 8 one stopping tickets.

Apparently well over 5,000 people a week traveled between London and Wuhan.

   

I hadn't heard of it either. China has over 100 cities with a population of over one million people, including 19 with a population over 5m - many of which I still haven't heard of. It is crazy how big that country is.

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The tremendous level of research supporting both ambient temperature and humidity in its role in transmission and infection motivated this study to examine the influence of environmental factors on COVID-19. We sought to determine whether climate could be a factor in the spread of this disease.
 

Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=249000000081124030125086125084093065040082022002039016066109024100116091109010119095122031018004012045098003017105114125109114051027045019081116110117082101005094126040046041081085069093117085113069064098085075021018008094021069091109024107094071067001&EXT=pdf

This is interesting.  Does not look good for UK and New York in April.  But if we get a heatwave this summer that gives us hope.

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USA getting create with the figures too, 247 deaths yesterday, today 10. Edit: realised this is current total.

image.png.d4d48dc538224181496bd9c296919be4.png

Edited by ticket2ride

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Quote

 

We poor people, we are immune.

A Mexican official has today controversially claimed poor people are immune to the coronavirus that has rapidly swept the world.

Miguel Barbosa, governor of the city of Puebla, argued the majority of the country's near-500 COVID-19 cases are wealthy people.

Mr Barbosa - who has no known medical qualifications - added: 'If you are rich, you are at risk. If you are poor, no... We poor people, we are immune.' 

Daily Mail

 

He must be coronavirus experts.

 

Edited by rollover

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Just now, ticket2ride said:

USA getting create with the figures too, 247 deaths yesterday, today 10. Edit: realised this is current total.

image.png.d4d48dc538224181496bd9c296919be4.png

They are at least 5 hours behind.. The UK, that's only East coast

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1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

USA getting create with the figures too, 247 deaths yesterday, today 10. Edit: realised this is current total.

image.png.d4d48dc538224181496bd9c296919be4.png

You can try worldometers, numbers are coming in all day.

500,000 - Coronavirus Cases

US is going to overtake Italy soon and possibly China later on today or early tomorrow.

Total Cases now:

  1. China - 81,285
  2. Italy - 74,386
  3. USA - 73,813

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2 hours ago, kzb said:

The tremendous level of research supporting both ambient temperature and humidity in its role in transmission and infection motivated this study to examine the influence of environmental factors on COVID-19. We sought to determine whether climate could be a factor in the spread of this disease.
 

Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=249000000081124030125086125084093065040082022002039016066109024100116091109010119095122031018004012045098003017105114125109114051027045019081116110117082101005094126040046041081085069093117085113069064098085075021018008094021069091109024107094071067001&EXT=pdf

This is interesting.  Does not look good for UK and New York in April.  But if we get a heatwave this summer that gives us hope.

Wouldn't this methodology be flawed from the get go?  If they're relying on published figures not everyone is tested and methods of collecting information in some hot countries may not be very robust.

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21 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

Wouldn't this methodology be flawed from the get go?  If they're relying on published figures not everyone is tested and methods of collecting information in some hot countries may not be very robust.

On the other hand it uses what is known from influenza epidemics, how efficiently our noses get infected at different temperatures and humidities and how well the virus survives under different conditions.

For example, did you realise that LOW relative humidity favours transmission from cough/sneeze droplets?  That is because the droplet loses weight rapidly and stays airborne for longer.

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14 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Looking more interesting by the day:

Chloroquine is working

According to Dr John Campbell's blog (yesterday) the WHO says they looked at the data and couldn't see any positive effect.

They are now formally trialing a number of drugs and drug combinations but say that at the moment there is no good evidence that any of the previously claimed breakthrough drugs work.  

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1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Or perhaps not.

 

Did you actually read the article? It is an extremely misleading headline. The study was actually chloroquine vs SOC which included Kaletra in China, which has shown to be effective against the virus in other small scale studies. If anything, this data supports the idea that chrloroquine works:

 

"The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus."

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https://rentry.co/covid19-japan-mr

"The governmental and media consensus is that Japan is weathering covid-19 well. This consensus is wrong. Japan’s true count of covid-19 cases is understated. It may be understated by a factor of 5X or more. Japan is likely seeing transmission rates similar to that experienced in peer nations, not the rates implied by the published infection counts. The cluster containment strategy has already failed. Japan is not presently materially intervening at a social level. Accordingly, Japan will face a national-scale public health crisis within a month, absent immediate and aggressive policy interventions."

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This is the sort of imbecility that has brought us to this point.

BBC News: 'Mix-up' over EU ventilator scheme

Quote

A UK government spokesperson said: "Owing to an initial communication problem, the UK did not receive an invitation in time to join in four joint procurements in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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