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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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17 minutes ago, kzb said:

Also can give you tinnitus and hearing loss. I wouldn't play with it.

Take it for malaria, virtually buy it over the counter. Entire countries took it weekly to prevent malaria.

Take it to save your life.... dodgy.

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10 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Did they have to do the drugs tests? you should be banned from driving on the basis of that? 

 

I dunno, they just did it anyway, you know what these do-gooder doctor types are like, thinking they're doing society a favour and all that. I've never had a driving licence anyway, so they can't really ban me either. 

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1 minute ago, Orb said:

I dunno, they just did it anyway, you know what these do-gooder doctor types are like, thinking they're doing society a favour and all that. I've never had a driving licence anyway, so they can't really ban me either. 

okay- weird but i buy it.

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6 minutes ago, Crashley Banjo said:

I have noticed lots of people seem to pass away towards the end of the year.

is it down to cold weather/ flu lack of excerise etc ? 

Yes. Natural sunlight causes ones skin to produce vitamin D. Also virus cannot survive as well in higher temperatures.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3897598/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080330203401.htm

In very hot weather use a legionnaire style head wear with cloth over rear neck and shoulders (those parts are more prone to sun burn first) similar to a Sultan hat sort of thing.

Lack of exercise is all year round. I tend to think if Winter causes a lack of exercise, as much as one can understand why that might be (limited ways of exercising) I find this more in the category of excusing oneself too easily.

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1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

both my parents died 2nd week in January, it has always been the peak week to die in northern europe

I am sorry to hear that. Yes it is a bad time of year. It is good that from those stats, the winter death peaks are going down year on year.

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10 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Why would they fiddle the numbers? People will blow the whistle.

Not if the new Covid law prevents it. Fiddling would prevent panic, allow the lockdown to be lifted and protect the Prime Minister.

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Is the Dyson Ventilator like the Dyson EV - a marketing ploy to shift vacuums, air blades and "air multipliers" ?

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Nadhim Zahawi hanging himself on Newsnight now with BS talk of Dyson ventilators. I hope these feckers get crucified post events.

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56 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Not if the new Covid law prevents it. Fiddling would prevent panic, allow the lockdown to be lifted and protect the Prime Minister.

If the numbers start dropping straight away they are fiddling. People were still in the pubs on Friday. Don't see how it's possible to hide the number of cases if conference centres are filling up with critical patients though.

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

UK fatalities not showing alarming growth seen in Wuhan,  North Italy and Spain.

Give it a week, possibly two. 

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But there are some hints as to why Germany seems to be handling the coronavirus outbreak better than the rest of Europe. One of the most convincing is Germany’s demographics. Though Italy and Germany have similar median population ages – on average they are the oldest and second-oldest nations in the EU, respectively – this similarity is not reflected in the median age of the infected. In Italy it is 63; in Germany it is just 46. (Worryingly, Britain’s is thought to be 64).
 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/germany-coronavirus-death-rate

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52 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:


But there are some hints as to why Germany seems to be handling the coronavirus outbreak better than the rest of Europe. One of the most convincing is Germany’s demographics. Though Italy and Germany have similar median population ages – on average they are the oldest and second-oldest nations in the EU, respectively – this similarity is not reflected in the median age of the infected. In Italy it is 63; in Germany it is just 46. (Worryingly, Britain’s is thought to be 64).
 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/germany-coronavirus-death-rate

Could it again go back to social issues with grandparents in Italy often living in the family, i dont know about Germany but it is now rare in the UK

Edited by debtlessmanc

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8 hours ago, smash said:

Nadhim Zahawi hanging himself on Newsnight now with BS talk of Dyson ventilators. I hope these feckers get crucified post events.

Yes, this has been the biggest load of baloney ever. Just BS to make Daily Mail Brexiters who believe in the exceptionalism myth feel good. No realisation of the complexities involved. Whilst the basic engineering is not that complex, things like reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance take longer to sort out.


When Boris first mentioned Rolls Royce I thought what are they going to, put pipes into the thrust from a Trent engine? They’d be a lot of literal human blimps if they tried that.

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"things like reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance take longer to sort out. "

how important are those things when you have 10,000 people dying a day? i wonder about some people, rules and standards are man made- just like religions.

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3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

"things like reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance take longer to sort out. "

how important are those things when you have 10,000 people dying a day? i wonder about some people, rules and standards are man made- just like religions.

You have no idea. 

I've been trying to get our company involved in some of the ppe and ventilator schemes going on, to scale up production via 3d printing and cnc supplier networks we use. But so far it is a disaster

- no one in government or healthcare (UK and EU) so far has a clue about manufacturing.  They don't know what is possible, they don't know what they need, and they don't know how to organise.  For ventilators they may have taken the strategy of just focusing on the big boys (which would be absolutely fine and maybe smart) but they've missed a trick on ppe and companies and individual hospitals are left trying to figure it out themselves

-Many companies want to be Seen to be helping more than actually helping, so we now have something like 30 new ventilator designs around the world, 60 new face shield designs etc. All because they want to see their design being used, rather than just choosing an existing design and getting started.  We're also seeing the same with groups being set up to manage the volunteer projects, none of them are considering merging together which is infueiating

-there is then a final class of people who rather than wanting to help, just enjoy feeling important/smarter by trying to shoot down everything - 'that's against regulations, that will never work' etc. And they are absolutely morons - if I need a ventilator I really don't care whether it uses plastic in it that is very mildly carcinogenic! And also easy enough to just 'red label' all this emergency equipment so easy to remove from supply chain after the crisis.  Sweden even tried to sue a volunteer group for supplying face masks for goodness sake! https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/vill-skanka-tusen-skyddsmasker-stoppas (Swedish use Google translate) 

 

I really hate engineers and doctors sometimes (for loving regs, obviously lots of brilliant work being under terrible conditions at the moment) 

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15 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

"things like reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance take longer to sort out. "

how important are those things when you have 10,000 people dying a day? i wonder about some people, rules and standards are man made- just like religions.

Newcomers are being asked to QUICKLY design, manufacture and install machines that convert a highly compressed and explosive gas into a breathable personal life support system for very sick people located in a building full of very sick people and carers.

Therefore I would say that issues such as reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance need close attention...although I take the point that they shouldn't stop the whole show in this case.

Imagine and Oxygen fueled fire in Excel in a couple of weeks time.

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14 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

"things like reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance take longer to sort out. "

how important are those things when you have 10,000 people dying a day? i wonder about some people, rules and standards are man made- just like religions.

Yesterday on newsnight  an existing  manufacturer who had applied to help and bought new machinery off his own back was asking why the government hadn’t contacted him and why they weren’t simply focussing on increasing the supply of existing designs/machines.

On the face of it does seem pretty mad to me that in an emergency that you can see coming you sit down and design a new machine. You need new spitfires  next month ? Ok we don’t normally make spitfires so we’ve designed a new plane that should be ready for your pilots to fly into battle by then....

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Just now, Roman Roady said:

Newcomers are being asked to QUICKLY design, manufacture and install machines that convert a highly compressed and explosive gas into a breathable personal life support system for very sick people located in a building full of very sick people and carers.

Therefore I would say that issues such as reliability, safety, training, support and maintenance need close attention...although I take the point that they shouldn't stop the whole show in this case.

Imagine and Oxygen fueled fire in Excel in a couple of weeks time.

I suspect the issue comes down to the fact that 90% of people are largely incompetent and resort to imitation and repetition to get their job done. This would apply to safety standards middle management too who would use the right words such as reliability, training etc but without really thinking below the surface, and just protecting their own jobs instead.

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1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:


But there are some hints as to why Germany seems to be handling the coronavirus outbreak better than the rest of Europe. One of the most convincing is Germany’s demographics. Though Italy and Germany have similar median population ages – on average they are the oldest and second-oldest nations in the EU, respectively – this similarity is not reflected in the median age of the infected. In Italy it is 63; in Germany it is just 46. (Worryingly, Britain’s is thought to be 64).
 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/germany-coronavirus-death-rate

I thought it had been established that there was no consistency between countries in attributing deaths, and that in Germany deaths of elderly and sick were more likely to be attributed to other pre-existing causes. 

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


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      • up 5%



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