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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
38 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

If you think 

this is important

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https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/new-york-hospitals-treating-coronavirus-patients-with-vitamin-c/

“The patients who received vitamin C did significantly better than those who did not get vitamin C............vitamin C levels in coronavirus patients drop dramatically when they suffer sepsis, an inflammatory response that occurs when their bodies overreact to the infection."

I previously mentioned this study for Sepsis:

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)62564-3/fulltext

"The hospital mortality was 8.5% (4 of 47) in the treatment group compared with 40.4% (19 of 47) in the control group (P < .001)"

Sepsis is one of the leading complication of influenza deaths. 11 million death a year. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sepsis-deadlier-than-cancer-as-study-shows-11m-deaths-a-year-vnjqdmpts

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149191/New-York-hospitals-treating-corona-patients-6000-milligrams-VITAMIN-C.html

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HOLA449
2 hours ago, Pop321 said:

Just scanned through this thread and interesting how many on here (no judgement because myself included) have gone from certainty that it is an over reaction to a normal flu....to where were are today. 

24th Jan...that is a great spot by OP.  To think it is one thing...to think it enough to post a thread in Jan certainly beat my radar. And in answer to your question....yes.

What I am now not sure about is for how long the economy will remain 'tipped'. Months, years, many years?

Yes I wish I was wrong, but it was the severity of the Chinese lockdown that made me think ‘this is big’. I did my panic buying that day, so at least I didn’t add to the recent panic!

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HOLA4410
16 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Cummings' new three word slogan "Protect our NHS" is rolling off the tongues of every official from BJ down.

When I first started noticing the Three Word Slogans on the lecterns in the daily briefings I thought they could have at least made the effort to make ALL of them three words otherwise it just looks sloppy when you see

Stay at Home

Protect the NHS

Save Lives

"Save Lives" could have been Save More Lives" or something like that.  Didn't try hard enough ?

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HOLA4411
2 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

When I first started noticing the Three Word Slogans on the lecterns in the daily briefings I thought they could have at least made the effort to make ALL of them three words otherwise it just looks sloppy when you see

Stay at Home

Protect the NHS

Save Lives

"Save Lives" could have been Save More Lives" or something like that.  Didn't try hard enough ?

I expect he’s prepping for Don’t Blame Me.

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HOLA4412
5 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

When I first started noticing the Three Word Slogans on the lecterns in the daily briefings I thought they could have at least made the effort to make ALL of them three words otherwise it just looks sloppy when you see

Stay at Home

Protect the NHS

Save Lives

"Save Lives" could have been Save More Lives" or something like that.  Didn't try hard enough ?

Is it just me or are the slogans in the wrong order? Surely:

Stay at Home

Save Lives

Protect the NHS

All of these are important ... but if you want me to do something give me the best reason you can for asking.

Saving lives is - to me - even more important than protecting the NHS. Protecting the NHS is a means to an end - not (as implied by their order of precendence) the end in itself ... surely?

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36 minutes ago, rollover said:

If true this could mean ..., Prince William become King sooner than he thought.

William would make a better king than Charles, who's mildly nuts. On the other hand maybe he can cure himself with homeopathy?

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HOLA4416
5 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Is it just me or are the slogans in the wrong order? Surely:

Stay at Home

Save Lives

Protect the NHS

All of these are important ... but if you want me to do something give me the best reason you can for asking.

Saving lives is - to me - even more important than protecting the NHS. Protecting the NHS is a means to an end - not (as implied by their order of precendence) the end in itself ... surely?

"Protect Our NHS" is a clever and emotive slogan, on a par with "Take Back Control" .

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HOLA4417
1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

This is clearly an interesting area. It is worthwhile looking at "years of life would be lost" as well as lives lost.

But it seems like spurious accuracy about the level of GDP necessary to make "beating the virus" net negative, considering the uncertainty around how many lives will be lost, how many years of life will be lost and how many will have serious health issues and how serious those health issues will be.

“Years of life” is an interesting measure, because it means the death of a 40 year old is equivalent to the death of probably twenty 90 year olds.  Would you sacrifice twenty 90 year olds in poor health to save one 40 year old in good health?  Quite a complex moral question. 
 

The 6.4% I’m sure is just a model output and not an attempt to say that particular figure is exact - I’d prefer it if they said “ around 6 to 7 per cent” but I guess the public prefer exact numbers from inexact modelling - just look at how the weather forecast quite exact millimetres of rain to fall etc

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HOLA4418
1 hour ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Is it just me or are the slogans in the wrong order? Surely:

Stay at Home

Save Lives

Protect the NHS

All of these are important ... but if you want me to do something give me the best reason you can for asking.

Saving lives is - to me - even more important than protecting the NHS. Protecting the NHS is a means to an end - not (as implied by their order of precendence) the end in itself ... surely?

What do you think about another slogan "build herd immunity"?

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HOLA4419
32 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

“Years of life” is an interesting measure, because it means the death of a 40 year old is equivalent to the death of probably twenty 90 year olds.  Would you sacrifice twenty 90 year olds in poor health to save one 40 year old in good health?  Quite a complex moral question.

Indeed and not there's not just the question of "years of life" or even quality of life years. We would also have to consider that a dead 30-50 year old is often one with young children or who may have had children, so the impact on children and spouse is much worse than the death of elderly people.

35 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The 6.4% I’m sure is just a model output and not an attempt to say that particular figure is exact - I’d prefer it if they said “ around 6 to 7 per cent” but I guess the public prefer exact numbers from inexact modelling

Quoting 6.4% wasn't the only problem I was referring to. If they are saying GDP goes down by 6-7% and the corresponding number of years of life lost is not many ("beating the virus"), but if GDP remains roughly the same and the corresponding number of years of life lost is a lot, this is meaningless unless they tell us what is "not many" and what is "not a lot."

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HOLA4420
1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Cummings' new three word slogan "Protect our NHS" is rolling off the tongues of every official from BJ down.

Anything, anything is better than 'Turn the tide'

30 minutes ago, rollover said:

What do you think about another slogan "build herd immunity"?

Yes but the thicko's won't understand it.

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HOLA4421
1 hour ago, stop_the_craziness said:

When I first started noticing the Three Word Slogans on the lecterns in the daily briefings I thought they could have at least made the effort to make ALL of them three words otherwise it just looks sloppy when you see

Protect the NHS

This is five words really!

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HOLA4422

Visited a large Asda store today - made to queue outside to get in. Seemed to be a one in, one out policy, although daft member of staff blocking the doorway was not allowing for 2 metre separation.. Got in after about 15 minutes wait - store almost dead, must of been 10-15 shoppers in there at the most.

stock starting to re-appear, some pasta / bog roll / painkillers.

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15 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Indeed and not there's not just the question of "years of life" or even quality of life years. We would also have to consider that a dead 30-50 year old is often one with young children or who may have had children, so the impact on children and spouse is much worse than the death of elderly people.

Quoting 6.4% wasn't the only problem I was referring to. If they are saying GDP goes down by 6-7% and the corresponding number of years of life lost is not many ("beating the virus"), but if GDP remains roughly the same and the corresponding number of years of life lost is a lot, this is meaningless unless they tell us what is "not many" and what is "not a lot."

It is up to you to look and find out the detail if you are interested.

The mainstream media is not going to bother publishing the no doubt many pages of detailed information. assumptions and confidence bands behind the number simply because almost no one will click on/read it.   

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HOLA4425
5 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Visited a large Asda store today - made to queue outside to get in. Seemed to be a one in, one out policy, although daft member of staff blocking the doorway was not allowing for 2 metre separation.. Got in after about 15 minutes wait - store almost dead, must of been 10-15 shoppers in there at the most.

stock starting to re-appear, some pasta / bog roll / painkillers.

Shopping is now becoming an improved experience, yesterday almost fully stocked (no bog rolls but everything else available) and no queues.

Only irritation was the twentysomething waived me in as a priority customer, cheeky b*stard I thought. Later found out the priority age was 60 not 70 so a bit less outraged but still not happy.  

 

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