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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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The Black Death supposedly erased 60% of the European population - though I suppose the relatively primitive, very decentralised High Medieval society could withstand and adapt to such alarming mass death better than today's civilisation (with peasants in less affected villages/farmsteads and feudal lords isolated in their fortresses/castles being very self-sufficient, and being able to expand).

The Spanish Flu arguably killed more than WW1 deaths, but it looked like a lower proportion of the overall world population at the time - what would happen to the USA if it population crashed to around 130 million after a super plague? It would be like The Walking Dead crossed with Mad Max.

Edited by Big Orange
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9 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Flu in the winter isn't really a surprise though?  And this one isn't a really nasty one like SARS, or Bird Flu or even Swine Flu.

26 people have died so far, but with China having a population of 1.4 billion the pro-rata equivalent in the UK would be 1 death.

There will be some economic disruption from it, of course, as there is from all natural disasters/events.

But basically "no" I'd say.

Totally no - a blip nothing more. Everyone has such short memories far worse was that volcanic ash cloud - we had people stranded in the states for weeks and even as a small business didn't feel that serious - inconvenient maybe.

Its similar to the Brexit economic forecasts none show a GDP drop greater than 2007 -2010 - we are still here aren't we ? 

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Totally no - a blip nothing more. Everyone has such short memories far worse was that volcanic ash cloud - we had people stranded in the states for weeks and even as a small business didn't feel that serious - inconvenient maybe.

Its similar to the Brexit economic forecasts none show a GDP drop greater than 2007 -2010 - we are still here aren't we ? 

At this moment it is hard to say if this turns out to be a major event. My guess would be that it is going to be bigger than SARS but not a global pandemic.

Wuhan is the most important battleground,  in other places the number of cases is manageable to contain.  I think there is a fair chance we will have a big epidemic outburst in Wuhan.  We will know this in 1-2 weeks.

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

 

Its similar to the Brexit economic forecasts none show a GDP drop greater than 2007 -2010 - we are still here aren't we ? 

Thanks to a £127bn helicopter drop from the Bank of England in September 2016 aka the Term Funding Scheme.

Your Tory friends never mention it, of course. As I speculated at the time of its introduction.

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13 hours ago, Chunketh said:

I don't know why its a surprise to anyone. The next lethal pandemic is only ever a few mutations away. Its going to happen at some point and its going to be horrifying.

In any pandemic, aside from the loss in productivity through death you have to account for the fear factor. With the advent of mass air travel and 24x7 news in your pocket the effects of the next one are going to be massive. So yeah, if not this latest coronavirus then something else.

We are overdue a pandemic, the last one was over 100 years ago. 

Apparently this new virus mainly kills landlords and property speculators. Sorry that was me dreaming! 

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I saw Doomsday the other day, mildly amusing post apocalyptic madmaxesque film largely based on a quarantined Scotland. 

 

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0483607/

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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Let's face it, all of humanity and the animal world is highly vulnerable to disease, viruses that can quickly spread around the globe......like nature, drought, famine,earthquakes and other adverse weather conditions can wipe out large numbers of living things, as and when.....other forces are far stronger, more powerful than man will ever be...... sometimes it can become out of our control.....?

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It looks like the numbers of deaths and confirmed cases are doubling every two days at the moment. All cases are probably 10-20 times of the confirmed cases, so we are talking around 10-20k infected in Wahun. China have sent 400 doctors to the region. 

This makes more like for a full blown epidemic to happen in Wahun, which means probably tens of thousands hospitalized and a few thousands dead.  At the current speed we could reach this point in around two weeks. 

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2 hours ago, slawek said:

It looks like the numbers of deaths and confirmed cases are doubling every two days at the moment. All cases are probably 10-20 times of the confirmed cases, so we are talking around 10-20k infected in Wahun. China have sent 400 doctors to the region. 

This makes more like for a full blown epidemic to happen in Wahun, which means probably tens of thousands hospitalized and a few thousands dead.  At the current speed we could reach this point in around two weeks. 

Sod the hazmat suits, I'm going full NBC at the Bejing Fashion Show.

Capture2.PNG

Capture.PNG

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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If it is true that it is fatal in two weeks with mortality 15% then it is quite bad.  All those 41 deaths so far were for people who were infected two weeks ago when the epidemic was much smaller.   

For us the first line of defense is the virus containment, not letting it to have a sustained transmission in the UK. If that fails our next hope is a vaccine/med. The virus is similar to SARS; it uses the same receptor as an entry point to a cell. They should have something already. Not sure how quickly they can ramp up the production.   

 

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On 24/01/2020 at 11:42, regprentice said:

Prediction on the radio this morning it will drop Chinese gdp by 1% this year. 

 

I don't think it's really a big deal, people are dying of influenza all the time.

 

But yes, it could have a noticeable effect of Chinese GDP, which is interesting because Chinese GDP is already getting closer to traditional western levels.

 

Looks like China will be getting old before it gets rich, which could have consequences.

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On 24/01/2020 at 09:29, LetsBuild said:

A Black Swan event is supposed to catch everyone by surprise. This seems to have exploded in the last week. At the rate China is locking itself down do you think it could be the event to tip the already fragile world economy over the edge?

If this Chinese speed of building spread around the world, it would be a gigantic Black Swan event.

 

Quote

 

How can China build a hospital so quickly, in six days?

The Chinese city of Wuhan is set to build a hospital in six days. According to state media, the new hospital will contain about 1,000 beds. It is based on a similar hospital set up in Beijing to help tackle the Sars virus in 2003.

"China has a record of getting things done fast even for monumental projects like this," says Yanzhong Huang. He points out that the hospital in Beijing in 2003 was built in seven days so the construction team is probably attempting to beat that record.

The engineering work is what China is good at. They have records of building skyscrapers at speed. This is very hard for westerners to imagine.

BBC

 

 

 

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i think with the world watching they are keen to put on a good show. Total totalitarian control of the situation, build a hospital in 7 days.
its times like these when regimes like china come into their own 'for the greater good'

imagine if london was put on total lock down? the first thing everyone would do would be to leave, just walk out. protests etc.  

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I thought this was quite an interesting read.

The Atlantic: A Historic Quarantine

Coronaviruses are fragile lipid-envelope viruses and I think the economic impact of deaths from this coronavirus will be negligible.  Any significant economic impact will be due to attempts at containment.  Containment will fail and so the size of the impact will depend on how long it takes the authorities to realise this and abandon it.

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31 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

i think with the world watching they are keen to put on a good show. Total totalitarian control of the situation, build a hospital in 7 days.
its times like these when regimes like china come into their own 'for the greater good'

imagine if london was put on total lock down? the first thing everyone would do would be to leave, just walk out. protests etc.  

The way we're going, It's only a matter of time before we have a government like that.

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Looks like it's pretty bad. Videos showing people dropping down dead in the streets and such like.

 

 

I must admit to a morbid fascination. Wondering how bad it could get and how quickly.  I'm sure that would pass quickly if things get bad over here.

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18 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

We are overdue a pandemic, the last one was over 100 years ago. 

Apparently this new virus mainly kills landlords and property speculators. Sorry that was me dreaming! 

Are there any statistics about the impact the bubonic plague had on the housing market in 14th century England?

Seriously though no one knows how deadly this strain is and people can take several days apparently to come down with symptoms while being infectious. So it may not be the person coughing and sneezing you need to worry about avoiding as they probably just have a cold!

And you wouldn’t really expect the Chinese government by nature to be totally honest about what is going on at all. They can shut down internet traffic and communications there very easily.

Edited by MARTINX9
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1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

i think with the world watching they are keen to put on a good show. Total totalitarian control of the situation, build a hospital in 7 days.
its times like these when regimes like china come into their own 'for the greater good'

imagine if london was put on total lock down? the first thing everyone would do would be to leave, just walk out. protests etc.  

Incredible, isn't it?

Hospital in Beijing in 2003 was built in 7 days, this time it will be 6 days only.

As Yanzhong Huang said " This is very hard for westerners to imagine."

 

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32 minutes ago, Biggus said:

Looks like it's pretty bad. Videos showing people dropping down dead in the streets and such like.

 

 

I must admit to a morbid fascination. Wondering how bad it could get and how quickly.  I'm sure that would pass quickly if things get bad over here.

Plenty of conspiracy sites out there which can project even more gloom and doom than HPC if you really want to revel in hysteria.

Apparently elderberries, turmeric and oregano oil capsules may help if you want to stock up. At least your innards will get a good clear out!

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1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

imagine if london was put on total lock down? the first thing everyone would do would be to leave, just walk out. protests etc.  

I think it's impossible to be sure what would happen...I suspect if a pandemic arrives here, just as with the Blitz, some people would react by volunteering as nurses, whilst others would go round stealing wallets from the dead bodies.  A city of 8 million people will have 8 million different reactions.

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36 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Are there any statistics about the impact the bubonic plague had on the housing market in 14th century England?

I believe the bubonic plague was fantastic for poor people that survived.

 

Their labour became much more valuable.  This is a great thing.

 

Allowing poor people's relative labour value  to increase is the last think both Labour and Tories want.  Hence open door immigration.

 

 

Edited by reddog
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3 hours ago, reddog said:

I believe the bubonic plague was fantastic for poor people that survived.

Their labour became much more valuable.  This is a great thing.

Yes, it was.

3 hours ago, reddog said:

Allowing poor people's relative labour value  to increase is the last think both Labour and Tories want.  Hence open door immigration.

We should have a points based immigration earlier in the year.

@Chunketh like the T Rex picture. I hate the Spanish Inquisition sketch. The "fanatical devotion to the Pope" stuff is one of those historical inaccuracies that bothers me the way that, for example, anything showing humans and dinosaurs together.

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