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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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  • Bruce Banner

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4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

The science can only be fully appreciated with the benefit of hindsight, but unmasking the political shenanigans can be enjoyed now.

 

No the same can be said with both. You can make sound political judgements based on sound scientific knowledge and even if it goes tits up later, well you did your best

Curiously both government and certain posters are addicted to serially screwing up both politics and science. .
I wonder why that is ?  :)

 

 

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The Tory boys elect for veterinary herd immunity (again).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims

Quote

What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible, while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout.

A large wave of infections, coupled with mass vaccination, would push the UK closer to “herd immunity”, where enough people in the population are resistant to the virus that it no longer spreads. The threshold for herd immunity with the Delta variant is unclear, but scientists estimate that transmission would need to be blocked in about 85% of the population. Ministers have repeatedly denied that achieving herd immunity by letting cases rise is the government’s goal.

 

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19 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The WHO now control the FBI and the DEA?

Steady on Jason Bourne.

2 presidents that opposed the WHO are assassinated / attempted assassination by teams that consist of people from organizations that are not from within their country.

Now that the president has been killed, Haiti is getting vaccinations......which they really needed.

Edited by Arpeggio
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6 minutes ago, nightowl said:

So what's the logic for vaccine passports if everyone is immune by jab or by nature? 🤨

It's pretty obvious that the aim is increase the vaccination rate. Same approach as in France and from tomorrow Italy.

In France the vaccination  rate leapt from 130,000 to 1,350,000 a day in the space of two days. 

20210717_WOC850.png

If it works anything like as well here by September there will be no need to  actually introduce the passports. 

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13 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It's pretty obvious that the aim is increase the vaccination rate. Same approach as in France and from tomorrow Italy.

In France the vaccination  rate leapt from 130,000 to 1,350,000 a day in the space of two days. 

 

If it works anything like as well here by September there will be no need to  actually introduce the passports. 

I wonder if any of these governments implementing or threatening people with these things have considered the long term damage of the state and the people has been done? Or even the medium term damage?

Will older vulnerable generations ever consider being grateful to the youngers ones?

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2 minutes ago, nightowl said:

I wonder if any of these governments implementing or threatening people with these things have considered the long term damage of the state and the people has been done? Or even the medium term damage?

Will older vulnerable generations ever consider being grateful to the youngers ones?

What damage? this is pretty light touch and the state incentivises people to do things all the time. 

In this case, it will probably end up with the government saying the great British public has done enough to avoid the need for both vaccine passports and another lockdown. 

The people will be happy - at least until the Covid and Brexit bills need paying.

 

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I always knew face masks were dangerous:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9817747/Sarah-Lewis-dies-struck-truck-Weymouth-Dorset.html

Clinically vulnerable woman, 62, who shielded for eight months was killed on her first trip out was struck by a lorry as she untangled her facemask, inquest hears

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I always knew face masks were dangerous:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9817747/Sarah-Lewis-dies-struck-truck-Weymouth-Dorset.html

Clinically vulnerable woman, 62, who shielded for eight months was killed on her first trip out was struck by a lorry as she untangled her facemask, inquest hears

Sometimes one doesn't know whether to laugh or to cry.  This case is tragic for sure, but......

Assuming everything stated in the article is 100% factually correct (a dangerous assumption I know for a newspaper and today's declining journalism standards!) I am nosily curious as to precisely what her 'clinical' vulnerability was? That led her to stay at home/isolate/shut herself off from the world for several months?  Was she told to stay at home?  Or did she decide herself?  Was it a genuine, rare, clinical situation that would have put her in indisputably elevated risk from Covid?  OR, like too many people I have met, was it largely perceived and erroneously assumed from a lack of comprehension of the science, inability to put things into perspective, etc.

I have come across loads of people who have been de facto scared witless into confining themselves to a form of imprisonment - many younger and in far better shape than me!

IF this was the case with this poor lady then that makes this case doubly tragic.

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9 hours ago, nightowl said:

I wonder if any of these governments implementing or threatening people with these things have considered the long term damage of the state and the people has been done? Or even the medium term damage?

Will older vulnerable generations ever consider being grateful to the youngers ones?

Most won't be around long enough to be able to show their appreciation!

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13 hours ago, zugzwang said:

 

Telegraph saying school lockdowns and pings were for nothing: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/has-bubble-burst-covid-policies-dont-work/

 

I think the whole thing was for less than nothing. 

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57 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Sometimes one doesn't know whether to laugh or to cry.  This case is tragic for sure, but......

Assuming everything stated in the article is 100% factually correct (a dangerous assumption I know for a newspaper and today's declining journalism standards!) I am nosily curious as to precisely what her 'clinical' vulnerability was? That led her to stay at home/isolate/shut herself off from the world for several months?  Was she told to stay at home?  Or did she decide herself?  Was it a genuine, rare, clinical situation that would have put her in indisputably elevated risk from Covid?  OR, like too many people I have met, was it largely perceived and erroneously assumed from a lack of comprehension of the science, inability to put things into perspective, etc.

I have come across loads of people who have been de facto scared witless into confining themselves to a form of imprisonment - many younger and in far better shape than me!

IF this was the case with this poor lady then that makes this case doubly tragic.

 

This has been part if the issue with lockdown as a policy. People with low risk in some cases have restricted themselves for no reason, and the ones who were at risk are in many cases barely have the mental faculties of a cucumber or are so physically limited they were not really worth saving. 

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Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

This has been part if the issue with lockdown as a policy. People with low risk in some cases have restricted themselves for no reason, and the ones who were at risk are in many cases barely have the mental faculties of a cucumber or are so physically limited they were not really worth saving. 

My personal observation/experience is such that I would say 'in many cases'.

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On 21/07/2021 at 16:43, captainb said:

The problem with this long covid in 10% of cases or other huge number stat, is as cases hit the 10s of millions overall it becomes obviously clear that's garbage. Same as the whole vaccines cause X, which was big in Jan, was dismissed as 10s of millions got vaccinated in the UK and that didn't happen.

Which isn't the same as saying vaccine adverse reactions nor long covid don't exist. It's just the quantum that doesn't tally at all.

We may be able to obtain a more accurate number for Long Covid in the near(ish) future.

https://www.cuh.nhs.uk/news/blood-marker-identifies-covid-patients-with-no-symptoms/

Quote

Cambridge researchers have discovered a biomarker in blood that could help identify those who caught Covid-19 months ago – even if they had no symptoms.

Now the team, at Cambridge University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust the University of Cambridge, has received £370,000 from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) to develop a Covid-19 diagnostic test that will complement existing antibody tests, and a test that could diagnose and monitor long Covid.

 

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23 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Telegraph saying school lockdowns and pings were for nothing: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/has-bubble-burst-covid-policies-dont-work/

 

I think the whole thing was for less than nothing. 

 

This govt's serial failures over test and trace, social care, border quarantine etc. have continuously served to undermine the effectiveness of lockdown but no-one seriously disputes that lockdown interruptions work.

The Telegraph is a Trumper/Farageist comic not a serious or reliable source of information. And Trumper madness is still laying slaughter to entire communities.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/24/tennessee-coronavirus-covid-delta-variant-cases-vaccines

Quote

Speaking to the Guardian, Fiscus admitted the conservative backlash against the vaccine was something she had not expected. “I think I really underestimated the political divide,” she said, noting that like many states Tennessee’s initial vaccine outreach had been focused on Black and minority communities with historic distrust of medical systems.

We were all really surprised that [conservative rural white men] ended up being our most vaccine-hesitant population, and it’s not necessarily because of mistrust of government, it’s because of an ideology – that if I get this vaccine I am somehow placating the left wing of the political spectrum,” she said.

“To see people sacrificing their own health and wellbeing and that of their families and community to spite this perceived political benefit to the left is just really dumbfounding.”

Some doctors on the Covid-19 ward in Memphis said they now turned off the news any time the political handling of the pandemic came on.

“I just find it incomprehensible,” said Dr John Eick. “I have no understanding of the reasoning, why those ideas and decisions are being made. All I can say is that it certainly makes my work much harder.”

In the rural town of Munford, 40 minutes north of Memphis and in a county that voted 73% Trump last year, it was not hard to find a sense of overwhelming vaccine distrust, often rooted in conservative conspiracy theories. Only 25% of residents are fully vaccinated here.

 

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35 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

This has been part if the issue with lockdown as a policy. People with low risk in some cases have restricted themselves for no reason, and the ones who were at risk are in many cases barely have the mental faculties of a cucumber or are so physically limited they were not really worth saving. 

I'm sure there's public health reasoning in there somewhere but I have to admit it comes across as some sort of neo-fascist drivel. What is going on with you ? Did you once try to employ a physically limited cucumber to carry your sedan chair and fell off ? :)

 

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1 minute ago, pig said:

I'm sure there's public health reasoning in there somewhere but I have to admit it comes across as some sort of neo-fascist drivel. What is going on with you ? Did you once try to employ a physically limited cucumber to carry your sedan chair and fell off ? :)

 

It sounds more like extreme socialism to me.

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10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

This govt's serial failures over test and trace, social care, border quarantine etc. have continuously served to undermine the effectiveness of lockdown but no-one seriously disputes that lockdown interruptions work.

 

 

Yes they do. It has been empirically proven that lockdowns serve little to no benefit in locations that covid has already gained a foothold. 

I know it doesn't fit your agenda but it is a fact.

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16 minutes ago, Will! said:

We may be able to obtain a more accurate number for Long Covid in the near(ish) future.

https://www.cuh.nhs.uk/news/blood-marker-identifies-covid-patients-with-no-symptoms/

 

Which would be great for the people who sadly get it and let's hope it helps treatments.

As I've said Im not of the view long covid doesn't exist nor am I of the view adverse reactions to vaccine don't exist.

You can't however correct the anti vax brigade for claiming any event post vaccination is caused by the vaccine then do the same nonsense for long covid.

If I was skeptical, they allow the nonsense of 10% of infections etc to be spread as it makes covid seem dangerous for those under 40. Which was an aim from the start.

 

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11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What damage? this is pretty light touch and the state incentivises people to do things all the time. 

In this case, it will probably end up with the government saying the great British public has done enough to avoid the need for both vaccine passports and another lockdown. 

The people will be happy - at least until the Covid and Brexit bills need paying.

So coercing people to have semi tested medication they don't need in breach of the Nuremberg code is "incentivising"? 🤣🤣.  

All,

Q. Who pays the covid bill...young working folk families  or those that lockdown & vaxes were actually for? 

Q. If 43+ Tory MPs will rebel on Vax passes, will gov risk a HofC vote, back down, or something else?

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19 minutes ago, pig said:

I'm sure there's public health reasoning in there somewhere but I have to admit it comes across as some sort of neo-fascist drivel. What is going on with you ? Did you once try to employ a physically limited cucumber to carry your sedan chair and fell off ? :)

 


I just feel right now society is being distorted by the boomers and their health concerns. Let's face it, this virus was never serious for people under 60 with no health issues. And before anyone says, but Boris, the guy is a walking health issue.

We currently live in an obesogenic environment and people think it is normal or their right to shovel their faces full of food and then sit on the couch all day.

I've seen people  10-20 years younger than me unable to walk because they are so fat they have worn their joints out. We should take a zero tolerance line on this.

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