Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, slawek said:

That is not true. That is what she said

“When the virus is out there, and the population has no immunity and no vaccination or therapy exists, then a high percentage – experts say 60 to 70% of the population – will be infected, so long as this remains the case,” she said.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/two-thirds-of-germans-may-get-coronavirus-merkel-says/

She made a correct prediction that 60-70% will get infected unless there is either vaccination or therapy. That is not a statement of the strategy. 

They are closing schools, banning public gatherings, closing borders. They fight to buy time.

So are we, and given that there is already community transmission, closing borders is not really about fighting the virus.

[GregBowman]

11 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

France isn't shut down.  They had another Yellow Vest protest over the weekend through the middle of Paris.

Its about to be - I am actually on a call to a colleague in France now. Word on the street is everyone has to pick an address and stay there for 45 days - Troops being mobilised apparently. Happening tomorrow.

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, Simhadri said:

Expected corona cases exceed 1 million:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/15/hospitals-could-run-short-oxygen-within-hours-pandemic-escalates/

Specialists predict 'overwhelmed' service will run out of oxygen, medication and beds as expected coronavirus cases exceed a million

Throwing £134 billion at a service every year for the gold plated pensions of pen pushers and so called managers while saying they have no resources to save people.

NHS will be in better shape with more doctors/surgeons/nurses than too many 'managers.'

My wife's ward has already run out of some PPE. One patient with suspected Corona virus, nobody was wearing PPE while treating him.

[regprentice]

Just had an email to say you cannot give blood if you have been to Spain, Germany, Italy, France or 10 other far Eastern countries in the last 4 weeks!. 

I wonder what screening they do for UK cases prior to taking blood, and what they will do when we hit the apparently desired 60-70% 'herd immunity' stage

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

30 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

France is shut down. Yesterday we had a St Patrick day parade through Manchester. You can still go to a rave. 

There were 2 mini marathons yesterday. Madness utter madness. 

[markyh]

9 hours ago, slawek said:

I think they decided that they were not needed for the time being. 

Let them pray, they will still drown in their own lung fluid, in greater numbers as they have no 1st world healthcare. Some good news from all this. 

[slawek]

54 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

So are we, and given that there is already community transmission, closing borders is not really about fighting the virus.

Not really, in the UK schools are still open, no ban of the gatherings, bar/clubs/cinemas/theaters/churches open, borders open too. Germany are definitely ahead of us.

Germany closed borders only with France/Switzerland/Austria but not Poland/Czech Republic, which have much less cases. They don't want to import cases from abroad to add to the problem.  

[kzb]

Two positive thoughts:

Herd Immunity:  if it is thought there are about 10 -20 sub-clinical  infections for every reported case, this is actually good news.  It means herd immunity is building much faster than would otherwise be the case.

Social Isolation:  not only covid-19 but every other common virus infection (colds and flu) will go extinct along with covid-19.  Something worth aiming for.

 

[Kosmin]

2 hours ago, slawek said:

In term of the vote share that is around 1-2% lost for Tories from deaths. So it is not so bad.

It could be more  difficult to manage the political fall out but I think is doable for them. Brexita and the GE show that they have an efficient PR machine.  They have even convinced many that the herd immunity is the best solution though it mean 0.5m or more of them will die.  

So much can happen in the next four years, but I think the next election could be a real struggle for the Tories.

If there hadn't been a pandemic, the Tories would have had a great opportunity and great risk in their post-Brexit negotiations. If the world is still shut down or in a big recession maybe that hides or minimises the impact of a cliff edge exit. In any case I don't see how it persuades a lot of sceptics that Brexit is going well.

Labour were likely to struggle to unite the left and centre of their party and come up with a coherent strategy to re-take the red wall. But now maybe all they have to do is point to the disaster of the pandemic response*, observe the Tories policies in 2010-19 hampered the response and the only difference after Johnson took over was a cavalier attitude taking by "weirdo and misfit advisers" like Cummings. Enter safe, competent, centrist Keir Starmer. 

 

* Pandemics and natural disasters lead people to vote for the opposition even if they don't think it had anything to do with the government. So even if most people think the government handle it well, this is likely to be bad for incumbents.

[MancTom]

3 hours ago, Simhadri said:

Expected corona cases exceed 1 million:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/15/hospitals-could-run-short-oxygen-within-hours-pandemic-escalates/

Specialists predict 'overwhelmed' service will run out of oxygen, medication and beds as expected coronavirus cases exceed a million

Throwing £134 billion at a service every year for the gold plated pensions of pen pushers and so called managers while saying they have no resources to save people.

NHS will be in better shape with more doctors/surgeons/nurses than too many 'managers.'

Lets hope china donates supplies to us then. I think they have in Italys case.

[thecrashingisles]

22 minutes ago, slawek said:

Not really, in the UK schools are still open, no ban of the gatherings, bar/clubs/cinemas/theaters/churches open, borders open too. Germany are definitely ahead of us.

Germany closed borders only with France/Switzerland/Austria but not Poland/Czech Republic, which have much less cases. They don't want to import cases from abroad to add to the problem.  

You're forgetting that Britain is an island, so with most flights grounded, there isn't a border to close.

[bear.getting.old]

On 15/03/2020 at 08:54, regprentice said:

?

There isn't a hope govt could turn around that kind of effort in under a year. I've Dominic Cummings will be sitting there saying 'it's worth holding the ventilators back 2 weeks to give us time to work on the branding so we can increase the user engagement from 93% to 95%.

I think you need to stop confusing Channel 4 anti brexit fictional movies with what actually happened and is happening now in reality

[kzb]

11 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Why do you repeatedly ignore reinfection? What if the virus mutates? There are too many unknowns just to gamble 66 millions lives as a sick experiment. 

I've not seen any evidence of commonplace "reinfection".  There is no reason to think this would happen in the short term (and I mean years not weeks).   This is because to recover you actually need to produce antibodies.  All recovered persons will have antibodies which will persist for a long time and quite likely give some immunity for the rest of their lives.

 

If it "mutates" people will almost certainly still have a degree of immunity to it and it won't be as serious.

[bear.getting.old]

8 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You're forgetting that Britain is an island, so with most flights grounded, there isn't a border to close.

Did you forget the ferry ports, and the channel tunnel. I've not heard about any control happening on who is coming in via train, car, lorrry etc. That's always been the problem regarding migration, absolutely no checks or border control. Piss up, brewery when it comes to stuff like that in the UK, I have absolutely no confidence in any government since the 90s regarding this sort of stuff.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

My wife's ward has already run out of some PPE. One patient with suspected Corona virus, nobody was wearing PPE while treating him.

Just In Time deliveries.

It costs money to store stuff.  This is what managers are for, to hone things down to core purpose.  It's far better to re-purpose the PPE store to something productive and output 0.01% cost saving.  Probably got a bonus for driving that through as well.

[Riedquat]

28 minutes ago, kzb said:

Two positive thoughts:

Herd Immunity:  if it is thought there are about 10 -20 sub-clinical  infections for every reported case, this is actually good news.  It means herd immunity is building much faster than would otherwise be the case.

Social Isolation:  not only covid-19 but every other common virus infection (colds and flu) will go extinct along with covid-19.  Something worth aiming for.

I did hear a claim that cases of people getting the sh1ts have reduced significantly thanks to all the handwashing (no more evidence than "some bloke in the pub" though).

[Riedquat]

8 minutes ago, kzb said:

I've not seen any evidence of commonplace "reinfection".  There is no reason to think this would happen in the short term (and I mean years not weeks).   This is because to recover you actually need to produce antibodies.  All recovered persons will have antibodies which will persist for a long time and quite likely give some immunity for the rest of their lives.

 

If it "mutates" people will almost certainly still have a degree of immunity to it and it won't be as serious.

With plenty of diseases immunity decreases over time, which is why some have booster vaccinations. But on this sort of timescale?

[regprentice]

10 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

I think you need to stop confusing Channel 4 anti brexit fictional movies with what actually happened and is happening now in reality

That's my experience of working in Central Government. I'm there right now. 

[bear.getting.old]

15 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

 But now maybe all they have to do is point to the disaster of the pandemic response*, observe the Tories policies in 2010-19 hampered the response and the only difference after Johnson took over was a cavalier attitude taking by "weirdo and misfit advisers" like Cummings. Enter safe, competent, centrist Keir Starmer. 

* Pandemics and natural disasters lead people to vote for the opposition even if they don't think it had anything to do with the government. So even if most people think the government handle it well, this is likely to be bad for incumbents.

I think you are in another world. Most of the electorate don't think like you, thank goodness. Another person moved across from the brexit thread who can't see beyond their anti brexit tunnel vision and obession with people like Cummings. Its quite dangerous really -

1. that they still have accepted and moved on

and 2. they are letting it cloud their vision at a time like this, regarding things that have zero to do with brexit

* On the other hand in times of crisis some leaders can boost their popularity, eg Falkands War - Thatcher.

[Confusion of VIs]

30 minutes ago, kzb said:

Two positive thoughts:

Herd Immunity:  if it is thought there are about 10 -20 sub-clinical  infections for every reported case, this is actually good news.  It means herd immunity is building much faster than would otherwise be the case.

Social Isolation:  not only covid-19 but every other common virus infection (colds and flu) will go extinct along with covid-19.  Something worth aiming for.

 

It not news, it is someone thinking. Where is the evidence?

 

[Andy T]

11 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Sign the petition

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403

 

 

why?  because of 'growing worry?  there's no sound argument in the text, seems to be just a reaction to other countries doing it, therefore we must follow, because it must be good.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

6 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

I did hear a claim that cases of people getting the sh1ts have reduced significantly thanks to all the handwashing (no more evidence than "some bloke in the pub" though).

It's more logical conclusion than most on here. 

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, Andy T said:

why?  because of 'growing worry?  there's no sound argument in the text, seems to be just a reaction to other countries doing it, therefore we must follow, because it must be good.

Yes, there does seem to be an awful lot of "something must be done, this is something, therefore we must do it!" about.

[bear.getting.old]

Just now, regprentice said:

That's my experience of working in Central Government. I'm there right now. 

I agree with your comments abut government red tape. And how difficult it is to get production of ventilators. I have been a civil servant. I don't agree with the rest of what you said about the government. A lot of the remainer MPs have gone. It has been said that 40% of the civil service need clearing out to finish the job because their attitudes make it it difficult for us to finish the job of being out.

[kzb]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

With plenty of diseases immunity decreases over time, which is why some have booster vaccinations. But on this sort of timescale?

True but it takes several years for immunity to decrease to the point booster injections are a good idea.

Take tetanus as  an example.  You are recommended to have boosters every x years.  But on the other hand, if you have had just one tetanus jab in your life you are statistically unlikely to get serious tetanus for the rest of your life.

There are exceptions to what I said before about re-infections.  Those with compromised immune systems (usually due to medical treatments for other conditions) could get re-infected I guess.    But there are not enough of those people in the population to sustain an epidemic.