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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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3 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

So if he chooses not to stay in as you told him, he will run a risk of catching it.......but you won’t allow him around for Father’s Day dinner anyway.

So the only place he won’t be going to in the outside world, is yours for Father’s Day dinner.

 

 

Unless we have all had it and recovered by then, then he can come for Father’s Day!! Herd immunity and all. 

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Otherwise healthy 47 year old paramedic dies of coronavirus at home:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-paramedic-47-becomes-one-21696010

No underlying health condition, no overwhelmed intensive care unit which couldn't treat him because the peak in the number of cases was too sharp. He just went home with a fever and died during the night.

Personally I am still not convinced that just letting this thing rip through the working age population to create herd immunity is such a good idea.

Edited by Dorkins

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This doesn't look good for the govt strategy to infected younger people only. Under 50y/60y will need as many an ICU bed as over 50/60. That is 2mln beds in total spread over the period of the outbreak. At the peak that can easily be 100-200k beds needed a day with only  4k available at the moment.

I think I need to double or even triple my estimation of the best case to around 500k dead. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Otherwise healthy 47 year old paramedic dies of coronavirus at home:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-paramedic-47-becomes-one-21696010

No underlying health condition, no overwhelmed intensive care unit which couldn't treat him because the peak in the number of cases was too sharp. He just went home with a fever and died during the night.

Personally I am still not convinced that just letting this thing rip through the working age population to create herd immunity is such a good idea.

That is apparently is not the government policy. ;)

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At this stage, is the UK taking much more action than Iran? Or maybe more than Iraq?

 

Really?

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9 minutes ago, slawek said:

That is apparently is not the government policy. ;)

They dont know what their policy is other than to try and keep the wheels on the economy as best they can. Hancock looked like a Rabbit in the headlights this morning.

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There's a world of difference between stating the observation that herd immunity will provide benefits and pursuing herd immunity by encouraging infections through inaction.

Health Secretary has said ""That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.""

So where has this "UK against the world" strategy actually come from?  Is it just not closing schools as quickly as others?

Edited by Jolly Roger

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2 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

They dont know what their policy is other than to try and keep the wheels on the economy as best they can. Hancock looked like a Rabbit in the headlights this morning.

Hancock always looks like a rabbit in the headlights.

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8 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

At this stage, is the UK taking much more action than Iran? Or maybe more than Iraq?

 

Really?

I was speaking to an iranian student last werk- iran has sent all workers home. He claimed his family had gone straight to the beach where everyone else was enjoying the unexpected holiday

11 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

 

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There's a lot of criticism of the government on here, but very little in the way of viable alternatives as far as I can make out (its hard to keep up with the posts coming on so fast).

Total lockdown ufn will just kick the can down the road.  A policy of deliberate spread with periodic temporary lockdowns when ICU capacity is overwhelmed looks ugly, but workable.  A lot of people will die or acquire chronic health disorders, but more than 90% won't.  There will be a growing army of recovered people who will be able to prevent essential services and the economy stalling, while other people succumb.

What is the alternative?  If we allow the virus to spread so slowly that the NHS always stays on top of it, we will have to endure an economic depression.

I am 56 and work in the City of London 3 days a week, so have skin in the game.

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2 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

There's a lot of criticism of the government on here, but very little in the way of viable alternatives as far as I can make out (its hard to keep up with the posts coming on so fast).

Total lockdown ufn will just kick the can down the road.  A policy of deliberate spread with periodic temporary lockdowns when ICU capacity is overwhelmed looks ugly, but workable.  A lot of people will die or acquire chronic health disorders, but more than 90% won't.  There will be a growing army of recovered people who will be able to prevent essential services and the economy stalling, while other people succumb.

What is the alternative?  If we allow the virus to spread so slowly that the NHS always stays on top of it, we will have to endure an economic depression.

I am 56 and work in the City of London 3 days a week, so have skin in the game.


https://www.thespoof.com/spoof-news/us/147166/bomb-bomb-china-trump-to-use-neutron-bomb-to-get-rid-of-coronavirus

 

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2 hours ago, slawek said:

I don't think there was a lot resources allocated to find a vaccine for MERS.  Covid-19 vaccine will be a different game. 

There are some in trials, one of them below

https://www.vaccitech.co.uk/new-mers-vaccine-clinical-trial-starts-in-saudi-arabia/

There has been no money and little effort producing SARS or MERS vaccines, there is no profit in it.

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5 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

If we allow the virus to spread so slowly that the NHS always stays on top of it, we will have to endure an economic depression.

18 months of economic depression until a vaccine becomes available seems pretty doable.

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10 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

They dont know what their policy is other than to try and keep the wheels on the economy as best they can. Hancock looked like a Rabbit in the headlights this morning.

That's because he is, any Health Secretary would be.

With a huge effort we may be able to double the number of available critical care beds, that will get us to where Italy was at the outset. 

A couple of weeks ago and before the reality of what was coming had really sunk in I saw an interview with Jeremy Hunt where he looked genuinely terrified. 

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15 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:
28 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

At this stage, is the UK taking much more action than Iran? Or maybe more than Iraq?

 

Really?

I was speaking to an iranian student last week- iran has sent all workers home. He claimed his family had gone straight to the beach where everyone else was enjoying the unexpected holiday

Worryingly, that's confirming a no.

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40 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Otherwise healthy 47 year old paramedic dies of coronavirus at home:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-paramedic-47-becomes-one-21696010

No underlying health condition,

That he (or they) knew of, but it is still very worrying that the Coronavirus can still badly affect or kill small number of young adults in their 20s to 40s. 

Who was the youngest serious victim?

Edited by Big Orange

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15 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

There's a lot of criticism of the government on here, but very little in the way of viable alternatives as far as I can make out (its hard to keep up with the posts coming on so fast).

Total lockdown ufn will just kick the can down the road.  A policy of deliberate spread with periodic temporary lockdowns when ICU capacity is overwhelmed looks ugly, but workable.  A lot of people will die or acquire chronic health disorders, but more than 90% won't.  There will be a growing army of recovered people who will be able to prevent essential services and the economy stalling, while other people succumb.

What is the alternative?  If we allow the virus to spread so slowly that the NHS always stays on top of it, we will have to endure an economic depression.

I am 56 and work in the City of London 3 days a week, so have skin in the game.

The truth is we don't know yet if lockdown can work in the long term but, as it appears to be working in the short term, we should at least keep the option open while we see if China and the other lockdown states manage to return to some sort of normality without losing control again.  

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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4 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

There's a lot of criticism of the government on here, but very little in the way of viable alternatives as far as I can make out (its hard to keep up with the posts coming on so fast).

Total lockdown ufn will just kick the can down the road.  A policy of deliberate spread with periodic temporary lockdowns when ICU capacity is overwhelmed looks ugly, but workable.  A lot of people will die or acquire chronic health disorders, but more than 90% won't.  There will be a growing army of recovered people who will be able to prevent essential services and the economy stalling, while other people succumb.

What is the alternative?  If we allow the virus to spread so slowly that the NHS always stays on top of it, we will have to endure an economic depression.

I am 56 and work in the City of London 3 days a week, so have skin in the game.

There is going to be a depression anyway. 30% of the UK GDP are exports. If other countries lock down their economies it will have a big impact on the UK. 

Those who can work from home should do this. The government should have a plan to maintain critical services. Schools should be online. Events should be banned. Public spaces closed. This worked in China outside Hubei.  

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8 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Worryingly, that's confirming a no.

They are not listening to the govt is the message. He was hoping the virus would kill tbem all off.

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6 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

That he (or they) knew of, but it is still very worrying that the Coronavirus can still badly affect or kill small number of young adults in their 20s to 40s. 

Who was the youngest serious victim?

It will kill hundreds of thousands if they try to achieve the herd immunity. I wouldn't call this a small number.

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2 hours ago, slawek said:

He also makes an assumption that getting the herd immunity through infections is inevitable.  He is not aware of or discard without giving reasons an option of suppressing the virus until a vaccine/med is available. 

He does point out that it depends on several assumption. As a plan, its shite.

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1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

He does point out that it depends on several assumption. As a plan, its shite.

Worth pointing out that the people making the decisions are probably over 50...

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