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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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Doctor! Will I be able to play the trumpet after my surgery?

Yes, definitely you will.

Oh that's great, I always wanted to be able to play but I'm tone deaf and could never get a note out of the thing!

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1 hour ago, 14stFlyer said:

My view:  we are already doing things that would have led to exponential rise in cases without vaccination, and have been for weeks. So I think the vaccines are having an effect. 
 

But for a virus with Ro 3-4, then a combination of about 1/4 of us having had the disease and 1/2 of us having had a vaccine that is about 80% effective will still probably not be enough to stop R >1 if we unlock completely and remove all social distancing. 
 

We are going to get pockets of disease. So we will still need a working track and trace. 

All depends on the variant(s) I guess. As you say there are a combination of known factors keeping the case  and death curve manageable. 
My understanding is  that - excluding  the unknown - the epidemiologists are expecting 30-100k more deaths but on a much gentler curve

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2 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

We are going to get pockets of disease. So we will still need a working track and trace. 

They've blundered too much with track and trace, what with dodgy app nonsense and banging on about it when the numbers were too high for it to be of much use anyway, even though we're currently at the level where it would benefit.

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2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

So, we wake up to the news (Sky News) that infections are rising throughout the country and Barnsley council leader is asking for lockdown continuation.

Perhaps the vaccinations aren't all they're cracked up to be?

Mostly odd hotspots it seems rather than "rising throughout the country", and no sign of any increase in deaths or hospital admissions (although of course they lag).

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3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

So, we wake up to the news (Sky News) that infections are rising throughout the country and Barnsley council leader is asking for lockdown continuation.

Perhaps the vaccinations aren't all they're cracked up to be?

The infection rate was predicted to rise as we come out of lockdown.

That was the price of opening up before we achieve herd immunity and accepted by the government.

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5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

Interesting, Vietnam heading back on to the naughty step too: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-says-new-covid-outbreak-threatens-stability-2021-05-09/

Obviously both Taiwan and Vietnam have been Zero-covid poster boys throughout, fingers crossed that approach will help them get back on top of it quickly, NZ have been able to quickly get back on top when they've had cases detected ... that said, look at Japan and South Korea who were poster boys early on and have had wave after wave, lockdown after lockdown.

Fingers crossed for them both for now, but hopefully they'll quickly come up to speed on vaccinations.

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5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

From that link:

"while B.1.617.2 numbers are not currently that big, they are doubling every week"

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The infection rate was predicted to rise as we come out of lockdown.

That was the price of opening up before we achieve herd immunity and accepted by the government.

I thought we don't open up until Monday, at least that's what BJ just said in the Commons.

Edit: He also said that the inquiry into the government's handling of Covid will not start for a year.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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11 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I thought we don't open up until Monday, at least that's what BJ just said in the Commons.

Edit: He also said that the inquiry into the government's handling of Covid will not start for a year.

 

Opening up is an ongoing process and well underway

Traffic is already back to near normal and outside bars have been packed for a over two weeks.

At my work office occupancy is now over 30%, this despite advice still being to do as much work as possible from home.

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14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I thought we don't open up until Monday, at least that's what BJ just said in the Commons.

Edit: He also said that the inquiry into the government's handling of Covid will not start for a year.

A year? When will it report though if ever?   What's the betting it will also be limited in its range to avoid too many damning verdicts or conflicting with too many present narratives? 

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The infection rate was predicted to rise as we come out of lockdown.

That was the price of opening up before we achieve herd immunity and accepted by the government.

The 'price' of avoiding the rise in cases have to be balanced in too, and we surely must be at herd immunity point by now or close whether by nature or vaccines? Certainly by autumn if not?

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14 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

A supposedly 'overwhelmed' cremation ground in India - Nigambodha Ghat, the largest in Delhi.

Is this typical?

https://www.bitchute.com/video/wTOSGb2LJgvG/

 

Many sleep on the streets in India too.

th?id=OIP.uRQvI9LT68fDouKajXbjnQHaEL%26p

An interesting article on Bloomberg about the way C19 is defined in the injected, and scientists concerns over this. Well worth a read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/cdc-limits-reviews-of-vaccinated-but-infected-spurring-concerns

If C19 cases among those who are injected is now only those who die or are hospitalized (as per the CDC guidelines), what if you go to A&E / need ambulance / need to see doctor / bedridden? well, that's not C19 because now you can only have it if you are hospitalized or die.

The article also gives some experiences of people who would not fit the post jab C19 criteria, such as Melissa Muldoon, who ended up in ER over a month after being fully vaccinated.

I feel sorry for these people. I see people that I know who are really nice pleasant people, but they have had the jab and it saddens me, I see a sort of Guinea Pig head on them in my mind. Those are my eyes, not those who see them as the useless eaters.

Between the lines this article actually being in Bloomberg implies that people who work at Bloomberg are also seen as useless eaters. As are people who work at FaceBook, Google, Twitter etc.

Similar to the "yardstick" of when scientists, consultants, surgeons, doctors, anaesthetists and nurses etc. die or become severely ill after the vaccine. They cannot be "in on it" for the coming depopulation.

Edited by Arpeggio
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8 hours ago, nightowl said:

A year? When will it report though if ever?   What's the betting it will also be limited in its range to avoid too many damning verdicts or conflicting with too many present narratives? 

The 'price' of avoiding the rise in cases have to be balanced in too, and we surely must be at herd immunity point by now or close whether by nature or vaccines? Certainly by autumn if not?

Winter 2021 is going to be hell. In another year's time the idea of an inquiry might be a memory.

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10 hours ago, CityLAD88888 said:

Interesting, Vietnam heading back on to the naughty step too: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-says-new-covid-outbreak-threatens-stability-2021-05-09/

Obviously both Taiwan and Vietnam have been Zero-covid poster boys throughout, fingers crossed that approach will help them get back on top of it quickly, NZ have been able to quickly get back on top when they've had cases detected ... that said, look at Japan and South Korea who were poster boys early on and have had wave after wave, lockdown after lockdown.

Fingers crossed for them both for now, but hopefully they'll quickly come up to speed on vaccinations.

Japan - 10K odd deaths ? They would need 20x the amount to catch up with us.

And as for Vietnam lol 30-40 deaths  ? 

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38 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Winter 2021 is going to be hell. In another year's time the idea of an inquiry might be a memory.

Looks like someone in charge needs a third wave from India presumably, to ensure that delay on starting the enquiry is justified - or better still, put back further.

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56 minutes ago, pig said:

Japan - 10K odd deaths ? They would need 20x the amount to catch up with us.

And as for Vietnam lol 30-40 deaths  ? 

Yeah for sure, no doubt they've done great so far, it's undeniable, agreed. But "zero-covid" nirvana? Just playing devil's advocate really: could it be that Zero-covid is the best stop-gap available ... but a stop-gap none the less (until vaccines come in to do the heavy-lifting)? Still think we should have followed/given that policy a try right at the start before it became endemic don't get me wrong, but at some point you have to open borders right? (as much as some right wing nuts would love to keep immigrants etc. out forever).

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1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Winter 2021 is going to be hell. In another year's time the idea of an inquiry might be a memory.

Why? Who will be left for the virus to kill apart from older anti vaxxers? 

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1 hour ago, pig said:

Japan - 10K odd deaths ? They would need 20x the amount to catch up with us.

And as for Vietnam lol 30-40 deaths  ? 

It is because almost 1/4 of our population is considered vulnerable. How pathetic is that? People really do need to take responsibility for themselves, 10% might be acceptable due to natural causes.

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13 minutes ago, markyh said:

Why? Who will be left for the virus to kill apart from older anti vaxxers? 

In the version of the world you follow it will be another strain.

If by "anti-vaxxers" you mean people who have not had a jab, for the jab happy there is already documented evidence of Increased Risk of Non-influenza (e.g. coronavirus) Respiratory Virus Infections Associated With Receipt of Inactivated Influenza Vaccine: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/54/12/1778/455098

As for coronavirus, there has not yet been any successful vaccine (that didn't actually make it worse). Pathogenic Priming / Autoimmune Dependant Enhancement / Paradoxical Immune Response / Enhanced Immune Response, different names same thing.

Normally the body transcribes mRNA from the DNA in the cell nucleus. The mRNA goes from the central nucleus into the outer cytoplasm, where it provides instructions about which proteins to make. mRNA "vaccines" send their synthesized mRNA directly into the cytoplasm.

There is still uncertainty as to whether it integrates into the genome: https://sciencewithdrdoug.com/2021/02/15/breaking-study-sheds-more-light-on-whether-an-rna-vaccine-can-permanently-alter-dna/

As I have already said, this mRNA technique could not get approved under normal circumstances through the FDA. You are part of an experiment.

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41 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

It is because almost 1/4 of our population is considered vulnerable. How pathetic is that? People really do need to take responsibility for themselves, 10% might be acceptable due to natural causes.

I assume what you're saying/alluding here is that our (and many Western) population is, by way of lifestyle (e.g. diet, lack of physical exercise, etc), generally intriniscally physically unhealthier than in places such as Vietnam?

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1 hour ago, CityLAD88888 said:

Yeah for sure, no doubt they've done great so far, it's undeniable, agreed. But "zero-covid" nirvana? Just playing devil's advocate really: could it be that Zero-covid is the best stop-gap available ... but a stop-gap none the less (until vaccines come in to do the heavy-lifting)? Still think we should have followed/given that policy a try right at the start before it became endemic don't get me wrong, but at some point you have to open borders right? (as much as some right wing nuts would love to keep immigrants etc. out forever).

Well - pretty much a resounding success.

Didn't really follow Vietnam so not sure how they did it, but Japan seems to have had the right approach despite their blips. Whether 'socially' it would have worked here, plus bear in mind they didn't have full on lockdowns are up for interesting discussion.

Compare their strategies and efforts to the suggestions of the Max-Covid crew on here. 

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8 minutes ago, pig said:

Well - pretty much a resounding success.

Didn't really follow Vietnam so not sure how they did it, but Japan seems to have had the right approach despite their blips. Whether 'socially' it would have worked here, plus bear in mind they didn't have full on lockdowns are up for interesting discussion.

Compare their strategies and efforts to the suggestions of the Max-Covid crew on here. 

Yeah I watched a pretty good review of all the factors as to why the UK/US did so poorly, general health and obesity was one thing that came up, so not sure if that plays a significant part too? (I had an awesome time travelling there in 2019 before 'the world ended' and they're generally super healthy even if ageing generally as a society like us). But Japan has been in and out of lockdowns so "zero-covid" was a bit of a mirage though none the less?

haha yeah but ultimately agreed, everything's relative and it's, for sure, a far cry from Max-Covid :) more of an esoteric point about "zero-covid" I guess.

 

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19 hours ago, nightowl said:

A year? When will it report though if ever?   What's the betting it will also be limited in its range to avoid too many damning verdicts or conflicting with too many present narratives? 

 

The inquiry will be a complete and utter waste of time and money, a vast amount of money. 

BJ will structure the terms of reference so that the inquiry will not be able to ask any questions unless approved by CPCO, and it will have to obtain permission to call witnesses.

The inquiry will praise BJs skill and expertise in developing the vaccine, and provide an excellent boost for the makers of whitewash.

I believe that brevity is a virtue, so will give you now, free of charge, the true conclusion of the inquiry:

The government f$$$$$ up.

No-one will take any notice of the findings, like no-one took any notice of the findings of the NHS wargame think it was called Cygnet?

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3 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

The inquiry will be a complete and utter waste of time and money, a vast amount of money. 

BJ will structure the terms of reference so that the inquiry will not be able to ask any questions unless approved by CPCO, and it will have to obtain permission to call witnesses.

The inquiry will praise BJs skill and expertise in developing the vaccine, and provide an excellent boost for the makers of whitewash.

I believe that brevity is a virtue, so will give you now, free of charge, the true conclusion of the inquiry:

The government f$$$$$ up.

No-one will take any notice of the findings, like no-one took any notice of the findings of the NHS wargame think it was called Cygnet?

Indeed. There will no doubt be a lot a gnashing of teeth about should national lockdowns been introduced just a week earlier, rather than ask why were infection number falling before these lockdowns applied anyway🙄

Will anyone be allowed to mention S******, clue: the country of Abba and Volvo's?  

Will it be raised that Italy has found evidence on cv19 circulating 6 months earlier than expected and so what ever we did would be too late anyway?

Will China or the WHO get any critisism?

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On 12/05/2021 at 07:42, Bruce Banner said:

So, we wake up to the news (Sky News) that infections are rising throughout the country and Barnsley council leader is asking for lockdown continuation.

Perhaps the vaccinations aren't all they're cracked up to be?

It’s the UNVACCINATED, largely younger people who are getting it if you look at the detail of the data.  Cases have fallen in every age group except 18-34

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16 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

It’s the UNVACCINATED, largely younger people who are getting it if you look at the detail of the data.  Cases have fallen in every age group except 18-34

Is there a big resurgence of older vulnerable people in ICUs and dying though? Thats the key metric, not infections anymore.

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