Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Dr Doom]

13 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

I think the evil villain vaccine works based on tried and tested Human adenovirus method used since 1980s (i.e. no chimpanzee adenovirus or mRNA). In the absence of information you could hazard a guess from that I suppose based those type of vaccines in the past.

In Gibraltar prior to the roll out of injections, only 16 - 17 people in total died from COVID since the beginning of the pandemic almost a year ago.

On the 9th January 2021 the RAF flew in nearly 6000 Pfizer vaccines to liberate Gibralta.

17th January 2021: Gibraltar recorded another 13 Covid-related deaths over a “devastating” weekend

Since the 9th January “Covid deaths” per million have rocketed to Third Place on the Worldometer site.

Thankfully they got there just in time to get ~6000 people injected with their first of 2 doses dose, just before the deaths rocketed.

If only those poor people could've got the 2nd dose quicker.

That would make an interesting graph I think.

[captainb]

3 hours ago, anonguest said:

"EMA staff left its London premises in March 2019 to relocate to a temporary building in Amsterdam,"

But, you're saying that many/most of the EU regulator staff now work for the UK regulator?

Yes. 

Funnily enough if you have worked for 15 years for an organisation in London and have family here, husband slash wife works here, when given the opportunity to work for effectively the same organisation in London or move to Amsterdam a lot of people stay in London. 

 

When people say the European regulator is "better" rather than just slower etc take with a huge pinch of salt given its only existed is current form for 18 months.

Its also why the UK regulator is experienced despite only really existing for 18 months, its a roll over of the EU one. 

Edited January 26 by captainb

[anonguest]

4 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Sorry, did you understand my post and the articles it referenced?

The 16 - 17 deaths was COVID19 in Gibratlar for the ~10 months since the start. The 27+ "from the virus" deaths are within 10 days of the first of two injections.

Perhaps not. I'll go back to it.

[Dr Doom]

[anonguest]

1 minute ago, captainb said:

Yes. 

Funnily enough if you have worked for 15 years for an organisation in London and have family here, husband slash wife works here, when given the opportunity to work for effectively the same organisation in London or move to Amsterdam a lot of people stay in London. 

Sure.  I get that.  But you were implying, if not out right stating, that a lot of these staff were given jobs at the Uk regulatory body which already existed.  Each EU country has it's own medicines approval agency.  Here in the UK it is the MHRA ?

The EU body you referred to was the central body for all EU countries with the aim of harmonsing policies (see wiki article).

So it does not automatically follow that the UK offered many/all of the London based EU staff similar/same (or any!) jobs with the MHRA or such like.  IF any did stay here in UK then they presumably would surely have had to compete, for any suitable vacancies that may have been open, with everyone else.

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

That would make an interesting graph I think.

I think more time elapsed and we might be seeing graphs like that. Similar to those line charts people sometimes post on here with house prices and a point of interjection such as "BTL was brought in here" just before house prices go up, even though as everyone keeps saying on here, that correlation doesn't mean cause therefore BTL had nothing to do with house price rises whatsoever, obviously.

3 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

If only those poor people could've got the 2nd dose quicker.

[anonguest]

1 minute ago, Dr Doom said:

That's a fascinating/intriguing graph ('chart' for the Yanks).

IF I understand it thenm simply, Gibraltar was de facto coronavirus/covid free until just last autumn - even though it was raging next door in Spain and nearby Italy, etc.

Did they completely close their border?

[Dr Doom]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

I think more time elapsed and we might be seeing graphs like that. Similar to those line charts people sometimes post on here with house prices and a point of interjection such as "BTL was brought in here" just before house prices go up, even though as everyone keeps saying on here, that correlation doesn't mean cause therefore BTL had nothing to do with house price rises whatsoever, obviously.

I realise correlation doesn't equal causation, but surely someone should be asking the question if we plot no. of vaccinations administered vs deaths and deaths are going up with vaccinations, surely it would imply:

1. the vaccinations are not working
2. the vaccinations are killing people

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

[captainb]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Sure.  I get that.  But you were implying, if not out right stating, that a lot of these staff were given jobs at the Uk regulatory body which already existed.  Each EU country has it's own medicines approval agency.  Here in the UK it is the MHRA ?

The EU body you referred to was the central body for all EU countries with the aim of harmonsing policies (see wiki article).

So it does not automatically follow that the UK offered many/all of the London based EU staff similar/same (or any!) jobs with the MHRA or such like.  IF any did stay here in UK then they presumably would surely have had to compete, for any suitable vacancies that may have been open, with everyone else.

The UK regualtor did not perform this role till after brexit as the UK was part of the EU. The EU regulator used to perform the bulk of the verification work for it... 

Now its standalone hence the requirement for more staff recruited from a certain other organisation that left. 

[anonguest]

1 minute ago, captainb said:

The UK regualtor did not perform this role till after brexit as the UK was part of the EU. The EU regulator used to perform the bulk of the verification work for it... 

Now its standalone hence the requirement for more staff recruited from a certain other organisation that left. 

Ah. OK.

[Dr Doom]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

That's a fascinating/intriguing graph ('chart' for the Yanks).

IF I understand it thenm simply, Gibraltar was de facto coronavirus/covid free until just last autumn - even though it was raging next door in Spain and nearby Italy, etc.

Did they completely close their border?

You think it might be an outbreak which started at the exact same time they started vaccinations ?

Funnily enough the same thing has happened in care homes in Germany, and lots of other countries including UK (see previous article).

Some cynics might say it might be improbable that outbreaks could start at the exact same time as vaccinations, in all of these different places. But I say balls to the cynics.

[Social Justice League]

UK hits 100,000 COVID deaths.

If the plan was to save lives, then it's been rather poor.

[MancTom]

26 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

I realise correlation doesn't equal causation, but surely someone should be asking the question if we plot no. of vaccinations administered vs deaths and deaths are going up with vaccinations, surely it would imply:

1. the vaccinations are not working
2. the vaccinations are killing people

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

It also correlates with an outbreak of the new infectious virus n a large care home

[Dr Doom]

6 minutes ago, MancTom said:

It also correlates with an outbreak of the new infectious virus n a large care home

Yes perfect timing

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

27 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

UK hits 100,000 COVID deaths.

If the plan was to save lives, then it's been rather poor.

I think we have been a bit unlucky.

The more infectious strain started really taking hold before Christmas.

Lockdown should have happened before Christmas and continued through it, which I think is the major failing. But it didn't and we are now where we are.

After the first wave we fared OK, not brilliantly compared with everyone else but acceptable. But the second wave has hit hard.

Edited January 26 by Gigantic Purple Slug

[Freki]

39 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

I realise correlation doesn't equal causation, but surely someone should be asking the question if we plot no. of vaccinations administered vs deaths and deaths are going up with vaccinations, surely it would imply:

1. the vaccinations are not working
2. the vaccinations are killing people

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

You can't be vaccinated within 28 days of having been tested positive to COVID. So people dying did not get a chance to receive a vaccine. 

[Riedquat]

41 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

I realise correlation doesn't equal causation, but surely someone should be asking the question if we plot no. of vaccinations administered vs deaths and deaths are going up with vaccinations, surely it would imply:

1. the vaccinations are not working
2. the vaccinations are killing people

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

We've now got a very definite trend downwards on cases and hospital admissions, and it's looking like the peak in deaths has turned too, so that correlation does not appear to exist.

Successful vaccination won't immediately change the direction of the deaths curve, but I can see zero evidence that it's causing harm. Whether or not it's having any positive effect, it's still too early to tell.

[Arpeggio]

20 minutes ago, MancTom said:

It also correlates with an outbreak of the new infectious virus n a large care home

Then it is also important that you are able to determine who received injection from who hadn't among the dead. Neither of the Gibratar articles do this. Simply stating that ~6000 had been injected with their first of 2 doses.

47 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

I realise correlation doesn't equal causation, but surely someone should be asking the question if we plot no. of vaccinations administered vs deaths and deaths are going up with vaccinations, surely it would imply:

1. the vaccinations are not working
2. the vaccinations are killing people

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

Agree.

50 minutes ago, anonguest said:

IF I understand it thenm simply, Gibraltar was de facto coronavirus/covid free until just last autumn - even though it was raging next door in Spain and nearby Italy, etc.

Did they completely close their border?

Apparently not.

".....before the 9th January this year, with only seventeen deaths for the whole period. The death rate was well down the Deaths per Million League Table. This was not due to isolation, since Spanish workers have continued to pour into Gib every morning, and back out every evening."

Edited January 26 by Arpeggio

[zugzwang]

44 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

UK hits 100,000 COVID deaths.

If the plan was to save lives, then it's been rather poor.

Ton up!!

The plan was to save the economy. That didn't work either.

[Arpeggio]

24 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

After the first wave we fared OK, not brilliantly compared with everyone else but acceptable. But the second wave has hit hard.

Bill Gates, one of the main proponents of mRNA injection, knew back in July 2020 that a 2nd wave would be worse.

 

21 minutes ago, Freki said:

You can't be vaccinated within 28 days of having been tested positive to COVID. So people dying did not get a chance to receive a vaccine. 

Few articles make the distinction of how many that died had not received an injection.

Make sure you get your vaccine as soon as you can.

Edited January 26 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

59 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

UK hits 100,000 COVID deaths.

 

Autoimmune Dependent Enhanced has barely got warmed up yet. Infact it might be that opening up from lockdown could set that off.

Sterile lifestyle + ADE + opening up = ?

(e.g. experiments on young calves kept them in a sterile environment away from all pathogens and they all died).

Edited January 26 by Arpeggio

[captainb]

17 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

We've now got a very definite trend downwards on cases and hospital admissions, and it's looking like the peak in deaths has turned too, so that correlation does not appear to exist.

Successful vaccination won't immediately change the direction of the deaths curve, but I can see zero evidence that it's causing harm. Whether or not it's having any positive effect, it's still too early to tell.

Hospital admissions in vaccinated groups in isreal has really started to drop off a cliff. Unvaccinated groups under 50s remained constant. So not something else. That's incredibly good news. 

[zugzwang]

3 minutes ago, captainb said:

Hospital admissions in vaccinated groups in isreal has really started to drop off a cliff. Unvaccinated groups under 50s remained constant. So not something else. That's incredibly good news. 

The Israeli govt deserves the plaudits it's getting. A success that's doubly remarkable given the political influence that the haredi faction wields.

[Glenn]

1 hour ago, Dr Doom said:

It doesn't really help make things any clear if whenever someone dies after taking a vaccine it is called a covid death.

Whenever anyone dies of anything it seems to be called a covid death

[MARTINX9]

1 hour ago, Dr Doom said:

Seems to coincide with them closing the borders to non resident UK nationals and joining Schengen!