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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

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I see liberal darling and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has had to self isolate as his wife started to show COVID-19 symptoms.

She had just returned from a speaking engagement in London - that being London, England not London Ontario!

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/justin-trudeau-wife-sophie-self-isolation-coronavirus-a4385956.html

Edited by MARTINX9

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4 hours ago, doomed said:

The UK has literally decided to have a mass cull of the old and infirm.

Every country has a mass cull of the old and infirm every year; around 1% of the population will die from being old. If 1% of the population die from this virus, odds are that most of them would have died from something else instead, so the total death rate won't change much.

The problem with Wuhan Flu is not that it may kill 1% of the population, mostly already old and sick. The problem is that it will rapidly overload the healthcare system everywhere it spreads, and that may result in far more than 1% dying.

(And, of course, that the world is so tied into China that we didn't close our borders to keep the disease there when we could have done.)

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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

I see liberal darling and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has had to self isolate as his wife started to show COVID-19 symptoms.

And apparently the test was positive.

He pretty much seems to have isolated himself since the election anyway, so it won't make much difference. Hopefully it'll stop him doing anything stupid for a while.

It does rather tend to imply that it's all over the place in London. With claims coming from Italy that the disease has been there since November, I'm starting to wonder if it's all over the world already and most people just feel crappy for a couple of days and forget about it.

Edited by MarkG

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36 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Every country has a mass cull of the old and infirm every year; around 1% of the population will die from being old. If 1% of the population die from this virus, odds are that most of them would have died from something else instead, so the total death rate won't change much.

The problem with Wuhan Flu is not that it may kill 1% of the population, mostly already old and sick. The problem is that it will rapidly overload the healthcare system everywhere it spreads, and that may result in far more than 1% dying.

(And, of course, that the world is so tied into China that we didn't close our borders to keep the disease there when we could have done.)

Doctor said on the radio to understand the distinction between died with Covid-19 and died of Covid -19 

Most elderly people die with a whole cocktail of ills - it’s not generally the cause of their death 

re: been around for a while, totally agree. In our family Many had some serious hacking coughs over the winter and what feels like perpetual low level colds 

Talking to people we aren’t the only ones 

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19 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

The head of the infectious unit in a Milan hospital claims that they are two weeks away from peak...

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-lockdown-italy-weeks-virus-peak-expert/story?id=69557068

If we're we're four weeks away from Italy (I think we're about two), then we'll be hitting peak in 4-6 weeks.. 

Our peak might be further out, if the government's plans of 'delay' work. We will only know if we have the right strategy in a couple of years time when everything can be added up and compared across countries. At least we have a group of experts in place, doesn't mean they get it right of course but that is better than doing things just to be seen doing things. It is not just virology, it is also considerations of psychology, medical assets, food supply chain, public disorder. We are living through an epic time, let's hope it is a one in a lifetime event

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Quote

 

No one will be tested for coronavirus unless they're HOSPITALISED

Britons who feel ill are told NOT to call NHS 111 unless they deteriorate

The NHS is set to alter its approach to the rapidly-spreading pandemic after the UK Government announced it was moving into the second phase of its action plan earlier today.

And now those in quarantine have been urged not to call NHS 111 unless their condition severely deteriorates. 

Daily Mail

 

Don't panic, don't panic the number of confirmed cases will not be huge.

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4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Neither are likely.

t will not be over until herd immunity is in place. The level at which this occurs varies depending on how infectious the agent is WTO and others say that this will be when at least 60% and more likely 80% have been infected and retain their immunity. Retain is important because there are, so far unconfirmed, reports that immunity may fade quite quickly. Based on previous epidemics this will take at least two years of major flare ups followed by many years of periodic smaller outbreaks.

The only thing that will end the epidemic and allow the economy to bounce back in 2021 is deployment of an effective vaccine. Even best case assumption are that the earliest will be is by the end of 2021. 

This would likely be the worst case scenario.

This would mean a multi year pandemic and returning to normal would not be the normal of 6 month ago.

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4 hours ago, MarkG said:

And apparently the test was positive.

He pretty much seems to have isolated himself since the election anyway, so it won't make much difference. Hopefully it'll stop him doing anything stupid for a while.

It does rather tend to imply that it's all over the place in London. With claims coming from Italy that the disease has been there since November, I'm starting to wonder if it's all over the world already and most people just feel crappy for a couple of days and forget about it.

We are still planning to hold the St Patrick’s Day parade in London on Sunday - 50,000 plus people congregating on the streets together.

All the equivalent SPD events in Ireland and the US have been cancelled yet we are still going ahead with the London event as of now.

As you say what is going on here - why is our approach so different?

 

Edited by MARTINX9

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10 hours ago, spacepidgeon said:

What is happening here??!!

I really believed that some of the posters here had some common sense and insight into the bullsh!t we are fed through the media

Please put your panic on hold people and take a minute to breathe...

Then educate yourself about what is really happening with this season's flu - start by asking yourself where are the actual dead people - do they even exist, I havent seen them or anyone almost dying on the telly, have you?

if they are real then what have they actually died of? are they all old or with underlying conditions? have they all had their flu jabs this year? Usually theyd be all over the news, but no soign of real victims here

This is a media-controlled exercise in social engineering and your all falling for it.

Get out in your community and get on with your NORMAL life before it becomes self-fulfilling

Give me strength please!

 

Spot the sucker.

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2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

The head of the infectious unit in a Milan hospital claims that they are two weeks away from peak...

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-lockdown-italy-weeks-virus-peak-expert/story?id=69557068

If we're we're four weeks away from Italy (I think we're about two), then we'll be hitting peak in 4-6 weeks.. 

Peak based on an assumption that like China the control measures will stop the disease from spreading, or on the epidemic running it's course and tailing off after +60% are infected?

The latter would imply things are going to get a thousand times worse.

 

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4 hours ago, MarkG said:

Every country has a mass cull of the old and infirm every year; around 1% of the population will die from being old. If 1% of the population die from this virus, odds are that most of them would have died from something else instead, so the total death rate won't change much.

The problem with Wuhan Flu is not that it may kill 1% of the population, mostly already old and sick. The problem is that it will rapidly overload the healthcare system everywhere it spreads, and that may result in far more than 1% dying.

(And, of course, that the world is so tied into China that we didn't close our borders to keep the disease there when we could have done.)

According to ONS

"In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2017 (533,253). This is the highest annual number of deaths since 1999 (553,532)."

So if 2020 had been again worse year for deaths, but less than 1999 (what happened in 1999?). You could have 540K deaths this year without coronavirus and nobody would really bat an eyelid. So the question becomes, if those deaths are essentially baked in due to serious disease, road accidents, old age, slipping in the bath, how much net change is due to the virus? If many fatalities of the virus are already seriously old, immunocompromised etc. Then might it bring forward the next couple of years numbers?

I know it is a morbid subject but will suicides increase? Seems reasonable to expect so if things get bleak, jobs lost etc. Road accidents could be down due to reduced journeys, lockdown.

If you add half a million more deaths of people who weren't due to die, effectively the death rate for year has been doubled.

 

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This would likely be the worst case scenario.

This would mean a multi year pandemic and returning to normal would not be the normal of 6 month ago.

There is a possibility of immunity fading, as with quite a lot of things, but there'll still be residual immunity in exposed populations. If it does continue to circulate then it'll probably be as a flu-like illness,  more prevalent in children. The older coronaviruses that cause colds do occasionally cause viral pneumonia in adults so I wonder whether it'll be something like that.

I don't think we're ever going to return to the previous normal. The world isn't going to be the same again after this.

 

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4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Doctor said on the radio to understand the distinction between died with Covid-19 and died of Covid -19 

Most elderly people die with a whole cocktail of ills - it’s not generally the cause of their death 

re: been around for a while, totally agree. In our family Many had some serious hacking coughs over the winter and what feels like perpetual low level colds 

Talking to people we aren’t the only ones 

We both had a dreadful thing before Christmas which my wife now thinks was Coronavirus, but I disagree as the symptoms were different. We suffered violent coughing fits (but not dry), difficulty in breathing (but only during the coughing fits), sore throats, headaches, snotty noses, general aches and pains, and temperatures peaking at 103 F. It lasted 5-6 weeks in various phases. 

At the time I thought it was flu and my wife thought it was a heavy cold. I still think it was flu, although my wife has managed to convince herself that it was Coronavirus.

 

 

Edited by Bruce Banner

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7 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

We both had a dreadful thing before Christmas which my wife now thinks was Coronavirus, but I disagree as the symptoms were different. We suffered violent coughing fits (but not dry), difficulty in breathing (but only during the coughing fits), sore throats, aches and pains, and temperatures peaking at 103 F. It lasted 5-6 weeks in various phases. 

At the time I thought it was flu and my wife thought it was a heavy cold. I still think it was flu, although my wife has managed to convince herself that it was Coronavirus.

Coronavirus is a variety of cold, isn't it? (Not an expert)

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23 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Apparently school kids are calling cv19 'Boomer Doomer'

;)

Nice thought put in their heads about their grandparents by their grasping parents ...🤔

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Just now, GregBowman said:

Nice thought put in their heads about their grandparents by their grasping parents ...🤔

Kids don't self filter very well. I don't think any generation of children would have been different. I remember the sick jokes I passed on in school about the challenger disaster, for example.

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55 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

As you say what is going on here - why is our approach so different?

We seem to have accepted that this thing is unstoppable and that we need to get it out of the way quickly, but not too quickly, and it looks like the plan is to somewhat aggressively protect the old and the vulnerable whilst getting as many young and fit infected as possible in order to build herd immunity before the winter. It seems as if the govt have decided that any draconian measures now to stop it, which could/would work in the short term, will just put this thing off until such time as the measures are lifted.

It is a somewhat bold plan, especially since we seem to be the only ones approaching it in this way so if it doesn't come off, that is going to leave the government open to a lot of criticism - to put it mildly. I'm still on the fence but I can't help thinking that the longer we can put it off with draconian measures, the more chance of a decent therapy/vaccine being created.

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9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's not what the epidemiologists are saying. They say expect multiple peaks over several years and after that to have a new endemic disease.

Not much competitive advantage when the rest of the world keeps the UK isolated. 5-6 weeks ago I started worrying about our planned holiday to Thailand as it had lots of cases, now they seem to be getting on top of it and it seems like holidaying there would be much safer than staying at home. Big worry now is that by May they won't be letting UK visitors in.    

The spanish influenza had one main wave. The theory is the virus muted after the fist wave and become more deadly. From what I read Covid-19 doesn't mute so quickly like the influenza virus.  There is no support for your claim that we will have many waves if the epidemic is not controlled. 

 

image.jpeg.9112d12ff8aad79ad73e73697300b46b.jpeg

Image result for spanish flu london deaths wave

 

https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/pandemic-waves/

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Kids don't self filter very well. I don't think any generation of children would have been different. I remember the sick jokes I passed on in school about the challenger disaster, for example.

Good grief, you were at school then, I thought you were a grown-up :D.

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11 hours ago, rollover said:

 

Something is going from bad to worse in the US.

 

The fewer tests undertaken, the fewer people that will be diagnosed as positive for having the virus......told that there are around 10,000 living here with the disease at the moment can only increase, most have not been tested.......how many will there be in the US?😉

Edited by winkie

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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