Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 38.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Peter Hun

    2505

  • Grayphil

    1925

  • Confusion of VIs

    1905

  • Arpeggio

    1629

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

4 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

Deaths in April were 1,000 a day, the level we're at now. Cases were lower because we weren't testing enough to find them. Which suggests that cases in April were at current levels or higher.

PRI_178988579.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&z

 

 

3 hours ago, nightowl said:

When comparing April to now, you have to factor in the death rate is normally higher in winter (ie now) than in spring and autumn and much more than summer anyway.  April still looks worse when this is factored in.

Nope. The medics are saving many more people now than back in April. I don't know what the real figure is but I've heard various, from 12% to 25%. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, miguel said:

Nope. The medics are saving many more people now than back in April. I don't know what the real figure is but I've heard various, from 12% to 25%. 

Im sure youre right about the medics saving more, but in summer our mortality rate dips down to something like 1200/day but peaks over at least 1700/day in winter, so thats a difference of 500+ a day to expect anyway about now.

Edited by nightowl
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Bloomberg have now updated Norway figures...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29

....Death count raised, age threshold lowered from initial report. (to 75)...Country suggests vaccines may be too risky for the elderly...

And in Germany....

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/german-specialists-probing-10-deaths-of-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-121011500088_1.html

Specialists from Germany's Paul Ehrlich Institute are looking into the deaths of 10 people who passed away soon after having been inoculated against the novel coronavirus disease...The institute also reported six anaphylaxis cases. So far, there have been 325 cases of side-effects allegedly related to the vaccine, including 51 severe ones.

And in the USA....

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/55-americans-have-died-following-covid-vaccination-norway-deaths-rise-29

55 Americans Have Died Following COVID Vaccination...In addition to the deaths, people have reported 96 life-threatening events following COVID-19 vaccinations, as well as 24 permanent disabilities, 225 hospitalizations, and 1,388 emergency room visits.

I was not an antivaxxer until this, (all 3 of my kids had theirs) but I now find this very concerning, especially, as apart from boasting about how many they have injected, this is all we get from the UK ......

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n149?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

Asked if any deaths had occurred in UK patients after vaccination, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said that details of all suspected reactions reported in association with approved covid-19 vaccines would be published along with its assessment of the data on a regular basis in the future.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Science paper using data from Manaus, Brazil.

Thanks for posting this interesting paper Zugzwang. A bit depressing, and certainly appears to put the last nail in the coffin for models involving protective T cell cross immunity from common cold coronavirus infections.  
 
it was optimistic assuming the individuals who get mild COVID-19 “cases” but are over the disease in just a few days, we’re going to have long lasting protective immunity from antibodies when it takes a week or more for the adaptive immune system to respond effectively to a novel viral threat. 

Perhaps the cross-immunity TCell response, while possibly a benefit to the individual, may actually be causing more harm than good to the population as a whole. We now have evidence of increasing frequency of  asymptomatic and repeat infections. And if these infections do not lead to long lasting immunity, then all they are doing is making this virus more difficult to eradicate. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, moonriver said:

I was not an antivaxxer until this, (all 3 of my kids had theirs) but I now find this very concerning, especially, as apart from boasting about how many they have injected, this is all we get from the UK

Thanks for showing those interesting developments moonriver. It is how I predicted a few weeks ago on here.

Based on this, their next move may be to inject everyone else, while digital vaccine ID is being worked on also.

Britain will be able to vaccinate nation against new Covid strains within months after new super-factory opens

All over 18s could have vaccine by 'end of June'

 
1 hour ago, moonriver said:

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n149?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

Asked if any deaths had occurred in UK patients after vaccination, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said that details of all suspected reactions reported in association with approved covid-19 vaccines would be published along with its assessment of the data on a regular basis in the future.

As of 2005 House of commons health 4th report, chapter 5 paragraph 98, the MHRA is 100% funded by the Pharmaceutical industry. I don't think much as changed since then.

Bill Gates Becomes America's Largest Farmland Owner While 'Great Reset" Says Future Is 'No Private Property'

Once upon a time the US economy was 90% agriculture now it's 2%. Sweden food chain is such that you would not need to invade to destroy. 40% of Russia's food supply is Dacha Gardens where people have land and grow their own. The UK was 51% self sufficient for food in 2017 but this is the part the people Bill Gates may own.

Edited by Arpeggio
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Perhaps the cross-immunity TCell response, while possibly a benefit to the individual, may actually be causing more harm than good to the population as a whole.

If this is how you feel and concerns you, you may feel safer once you have had a vaccine.

Edited by Arpeggio
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, nightowl said:

There's also the length of Sars cov1 and Mers 's immunity as a guide too.

One unintended silver lining in the cloud of high infection rates right now and Springtime is a good number of people have been organically rather than synthetically vaccinated. 

I doubt there is any information about either, Sars-cov-1 was eliminated within two years and Mers is so rare that getting infected a second time would be a rarer event than winning £100m on the Euromillions lottery twice.

Didn't help much in Brazil did it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, moonriver said:

Bloomberg have now updated Norway figures...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29

....Death count raised, age threshold lowered from initial report. (to 75)...Country suggests vaccines may be too risky for the elderly...

And in Germany....

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/german-specialists-probing-10-deaths-of-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-121011500088_1.html

Specialists from Germany's Paul Ehrlich Institute are looking into the deaths of 10 people who passed away soon after having been inoculated against the novel coronavirus disease...The institute also reported six anaphylaxis cases. So far, there have been 325 cases of side-effects allegedly related to the vaccine, including 51 severe ones.

And in the USA....

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/55-americans-have-died-following-covid-vaccination-norway-deaths-rise-29

55 Americans Have Died Following COVID Vaccination...In addition to the deaths, people have reported 96 life-threatening events following COVID-19 vaccinations, as well as 24 permanent disabilities, 225 hospitalizations, and 1,388 emergency room visits.

I was not an antivaxxer until this, (all 3 of my kids had theirs) but I now find this very concerning, especially, as apart from boasting about how many they have injected, this is all we get from the UK ......

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n149?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

Asked if any deaths had occurred in UK patients after vaccination, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said that details of all suspected reactions reported in association with approved covid-19 vaccines would be published along with its assessment of the data on a regular basis in the future.

So for the oldies at least massively safer than contracting Covid. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Dweller said:

Why?  All vaccines have side effects that can be severe including death. As wthl all medical interventions there is a risk but hopefully a much smaller risk than what you are trying to protect against.

About 20 years ago a work colleague suffered a known side effect and died from a Yellow Fever vaccination. As vaccinations go this is at the dangerous end of the spectrum but still massively less dangerous than catching Yellow Fever.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

We all know that the vaccines come with no liability, but it seems it could go further than that in this example, where a drug company sues someone for claiming the vaccine harmed them.

https://www.rt.com/news/508183-serum-vaccine-india-sue-coronavirus-trial/

That's nonsense. 

Vaccines come with as much liability as governments want to pay for. Most chose to self insure rather than pay the vaccine company to take on the risk, as it is cheaper. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I doubt there is any information about either, Sars-cov-1 was eliminated within two years and Mers is so rare that getting infected a second time would be a rarer event than winning £100m on the Euromillions lottery twice.

Didn't help much in Brazil did it. 

I doubt nobody studied the early corona viruses at all.  There was some study done here in the NW I think, among various healthworkers checking for re-infectionand of cov2 and found its not a concern.

I realise no one can claim immunity lasts more than 8 months as CV19 hasnt been around much longer to be 100% sure, but it is curious why so many people are seemingly 'keen' for there to be no future immunity though?

Edited by nightowl
Link to post
Share on other sites

lot of crap on here again tonight.  People should be ashamed of themselves, peddling nonsense about death from vaccines.  People die from natural causes and if they are on drugs the potential for a link is checked.  All these deaths are investigated and if connected to vaccine the vaccine is stopped.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Thanks for showing those interesting developments moonriver. It is how I predicted a few weeks ago on here.

You predicted   🤣🤭😁 Big new vaccine has side effects and doesn't stop already dying people dying.

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

🤣🤣🤣 Great article, below the headline says:

  In terms of individual land owners, Gates is still far behind media mogul John C. Malone, who is in top spot with 2.2 million acres of ranches and forests and CNN founder Ted Turner, who owns 2 million acres of ranch land.

In brief Bill gates has invested 0.5% of his wealth in farmland. Most likely done on his behalf by an investment manager and he doesn't even know what he has got or where it is. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why?  All vaccines have side effects that can be severe including death. As wthl all medical interventions there is a risk but hopefully a much smaller risk than what you are trying to protect against.

About 20 years ago a work colleague suffered a known side effect and died from a Yellow Fever vaccination. As vaccinations go this is at the dangerous end of the spectrum but still massively less dangerous than catching Yellow Fever.  

It was an eye opener for me (obviously not for you) because it presented to me all sorts of information I have never heard about before. Whilst of course I know that  vaccines have side effects I didn't realise to what extent neither did I realise that there are serious side effects to the flu vaccine. As you say, it is Q of weighing up the risk/deaths against the deaths averted and then  surely it is  a Q of being honest about the risks and honest about the deaths. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, nightowl said:

I doubt nobody studied the early corona viruses at all.  There was some study done here in the NW I think, among various healthworkers checking for re-infectionand of cov2 and found its not a concern.

I realise no one can claim immunity lasts more than 8 months as CV19 hasnt been around much longer to be 100% sure, but it is curious why so many people are seemingly 'keen' for there to be no future immunity though?

You are misreading them, people are tired of listening to idiots making stuff up about herd immunity.

Whether it exists or not, it is not sufficient to stop the epidemic. The spread in Brazil in the city that had the worlds highest infection rate with the earlier variant pretty much proves that. Hopefully the vaccine will fare better against the new variants but we don't yet know that. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, moonriver said:

Bloomberg have now updated Norway figures...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29

....Death count raised, age threshold lowered from initial report. (to 75)...Country suggests vaccines may be too risky for the elderly...

And in Germany....

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/german-specialists-probing-10-deaths-of-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-121011500088_1.html

Specialists from Germany's Paul Ehrlich Institute are looking into the deaths of 10 people who passed away soon after having been inoculated against the novel coronavirus disease...The institute also reported six anaphylaxis cases. So far, there have been 325 cases of side-effects allegedly related to the vaccine, including 51 severe ones.

And in the USA....

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/55-americans-have-died-following-covid-vaccination-norway-deaths-rise-29

55 Americans Have Died Following COVID Vaccination...In addition to the deaths, people have reported 96 life-threatening events following COVID-19 vaccinations, as well as 24 permanent disabilities, 225 hospitalizations, and 1,388 emergency room visits.

I was not an antivaxxer until this, (all 3 of my kids had theirs) but I now find this very concerning, especially, as apart from boasting about how many they have injected, this is all we get from the UK ......

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n149?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage

Asked if any deaths had occurred in UK patients after vaccination, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said that details of all suspected reactions reported in association with approved covid-19 vaccines would be published along with its assessment of the data on a regular basis in the future.

Any information on the regimes in Norway, Germany and the US. Is this double or single doses? Full or partial etc?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's nonsense. 

Vaccines come with as much liability as governments want to pay for. Most chose to self insure rather than pay the vaccine company to take on the risk, as it is cheaper. 

That is logical but I've got to say I'm really struggling to trust anything this specific government does, they are like an encyclopaedia of TFH hypothesis.

Any trust in the vaccine I've got comes directly from scientists.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Thanks for posting this interesting paper Zugzwang. A bit depressing, and certainly appears to put the last nail in the coffin for models involving protective T cell cross immunity from common cold coronavirus infections.  
 
it was optimistic assuming the individuals who get mild COVID-19 “cases” but are over the disease in just a few days, we’re going to have long lasting protective immunity from antibodies when it takes a week or more for the adaptive immune system to respond effectively to a novel viral threat. 

Perhaps the cross-immunity TCell response, while possibly a benefit to the individual, may actually be causing more harm than good to the population as a whole. We now have evidence of increasing frequency of  asymptomatic and repeat infections. And if these infections do not lead to long lasting immunity, then all they are doing is making this virus more difficult to eradicate. 

Nothing personal, but i do have to totally disagree with the form of words.

Societies interest is best served by having large numbers of individuals with fully functioning immune systems, not some hope that everyone needs to develop antibodies because that may in some way benefit the older members of the herd. In general I'd rather my immune system and those of others duked it out and won at the first line of defence.

In WWII they shot down German planes and sunk their boats, we didn't wait for them to arrive en masse in Dover.

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, satsuma said:

lot of crap on here again tonight.  People should be ashamed of themselves, peddling nonsense about death from vaccines.  People die from natural causes and if they are on drugs the potential for a link is checked.  All these deaths are investigated and if connected to vaccine the vaccine is stopped.  

Yes there is a certain type paranoid about government & media, & aggressively pro 'freedom' - anti-mask, anti-vaccine.  Fact checked responses such as quoting peer reviewed medical papers is "fake news" in their peculiar minds.  They also don't understand that the ending of, or pause in, responses in an exchange with a sane person is because, unlike them, the other person has, you know, a life😄

If we see a further uplift in infections & deaths in the spring because unvaccinated morons prance around maskless, those who are now blaming the numbers on 'normal' winter will just change the terms of reference or find another 'cause' to argue about.

There are also some who downplay the virus because it frightens them or they are phobic about anything that can't be controlled or has an unpredictable outcome.  Life is inherently unpredictable for the individual, so having these outlooks must be very stressful, but more sympathy here as the effect is subconscious.

429699ed8c9c9393770025e262f0d232.jpg

Edited by hotblack42
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Odysseus said:

Exactly

people saved by vaccine>people killed by vaccine

Yes agree, but I'd place more value on the lives of young people and would not think 10 deaths say in the under 50s worth it to marginally extended the lives of say 100,000x 80 year olds. 

The point being that the old shouldn't be able to force the young to take a vaccine to protect the old. It should be personal choice. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.