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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Apparently today marked a key milestone as 2 million people have now died globally from Covid - well subject to the different definitions each country uses to determine this death toll.

Newsnight on BBC2 just did a piece saying how hard this number was to visualise and showed us all a picture of what was supposed to be 2 million stars so all those people could be remembered.

Even harder of course to visualise the 70 million people who have died globally from other causes in the last year including over half a million people in the UK - none of whom clearly deserve remembering with a star or will even merit a mention by the media. 

 

What we are not immortal??! This is news. 

If what you say is true and our time is limited then how we spend our time is relevant as well as if it ends... Hmmm. 

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2 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Apparently today marked a key milestone as 2 million people have now died globally from Covid - well subject to the different definitions each country uses to determine this death toll.

Newsnight on BBC2 just did a piece saying how hard this number was to visualise and showed us all a picture of what was supposed to be 2 million stars so all those people could be remembered.

Even harder of course to visualise the 70 million people who have died globally from other causes in the last year including over half a million people in the UK - none of whom clearly deserve remembering with a star or will even merit a mention by the media. 

 

How utterly pathetic and devoid of humility you are. 

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

They ran the test for 5 months to allow comparison of number reinfected against infected first time over that period. Immunity doesn't end at five months. 

Yes lockdown as a cure doesn't work unless you are part of Diane Abbot conference, in which case roll the Tombola and pick any old bull.. No need to see what has happened in the real world. New Zealand is the UK at 8% of the population yadda Yadda 

Jesus wept. You still believe that the UK had a lockdown?!? How many months into this are we 10, and this is all you can produce? 

Little wonder the alt-right are regarded as clueless with spinless comments like yours. Do you and your family wear a mask when around others?

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6 hours ago, nightowl said:

A couple of purely anecdotal but recent PCR experiences from my circle:

One couple feeling bit ill at the same time, although not obvious CV19 symptoms both have a test. One positive and one negative...so one test must be a wrong result.

Another their child is sent home from school (with non-covid symptoms) but parents still have tests all the same despite a complete lack of symptoms. Both parents have message they are positive...but then a few days later another message saying both are negative.

They certainly arent accurate by any measure.

Another wheez Mrs Nightowl has spotted is where some of her colleages all put their phones in the lockers at work with the bluetooth and serco app left running all day.  All it takes is one person to get a CV19+ result, and they all get 10 days off work because their phones didnt social distance!

 

Purely anecdotal? Really, from you? No, purely fabricated bovine feces. 

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I think I mentioned Ice-cubes a long while back, looks like you can now have a chocolate flake with your SAR-CoV-2

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9153403/More-4-800-boxes-ice-cream-contaminated-Covid-China.html
 

Again, this stuff is everywhere and healthy people should be building up their immunity against everyday pathogens through regular low level exposure. The lockdown is dangerous as people may start losing resistance to other viruses.

 

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51 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

 

Again, this stuff is everywhere and healthy people should be building up their immunity against everyday pathogens through regular low level exposure. The lockdown is dangerous as people may start losing resistance to other viruses.

 

Young people and children perhaps, not so much elderly people though.......thousands are still catching or carrying CoVid daily so must still be exposed to other viruses, people still catching colds, runny noses and sore throats coughs etc......food poisoning still about so is bacteria.;)

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1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I think I mentioned Ice-cubes a long while back, looks like you can now have a chocolate flake with your SAR-CoV-2

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9153403/More-4-800-boxes-ice-cream-contaminated-Covid-China.html
 

Again, this stuff is everywhere and healthy people should be building up their immunity against everyday pathogens through regular low level exposure. The lockdown is dangerous as people may start losing resistance to other viruses.

 

The hospitals are overwhelmed as it is.

What do you do about the hospitals?

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7 hours ago, captainb said:

What we are not immortal??!

No, but I don't think many actively volunteer for death. People would have been shocked had two million died in a war of famine in the last twelve months. The only difference is the typical age at death, although famines kill lots of old people too. 

7 hours ago, captainb said:

 

 

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7 hours ago, captainb said:

What we are not immortal??! This is news. 

If what you say is true and our time is limited then how we spend our time is relevant as well as if it ends... Hmmm. 

You'd made an excellent Islamic suicide bomber, they don't believe that life in this realm is important when there is an eternity in Heaven to look forward to. Better get it over and done with as soon as possible, eh?

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10 hours ago, anonguest said:

So... only a little bit more than the number of people who die from communicable diarrhoeal diseases globally each year, and stilll less than the number of people who die from lower respiratory diseases in an average year

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

And finally, speaks volumes for either (or both!) what a condescending view media/establishment types have as to the numeracy skills of the average citizen and their presumed inability to understand what 2 million is and/or just how awful the education system has become IF that really is true.

BBC news isn't interested in informing or education but rather media moment drama like many of others declining news media.

I presume they didn't compare it to anything else to get perspective?  🙄

BBC news is best described like their highest paid EastEnders actor....Dyer.

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12 hours ago, captainb said:

They ran the test for 5 months to allow comparison of number reinfected against infected first time over that period. Immunity doesn't end at five months.

Exactly, so far they have found no end date to this natural immunity from previous covid sufferers, because they can only report on the study time they have been able to do.

This article I have previously linked to mentions a study of 8 months, so this study shows immunity of 8 months. Therefore perhaps natural immunity could be indefinite? It looks like only continued studies, as time goes on, can prove that.

https://www.biospace.com/article/new-study-shows-covid-19-immunity-can-last-at-least-eight-months-after-infection/

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1 hour ago, moonriver said:

Exactly, so far they have found no end date to this natural immunity from previous covid sufferers, because they can only report on the study time they have been able to do.

This article I have previously linked to mentions a study of 8 months, so this study shows immunity of 8 months. Therefore perhaps natural immunity could be indefinite? It looks like only continued studies, as time goes on, can prove that.

https://www.biospace.com/article/new-study-shows-covid-19-immunity-can-last-at-least-eight-months-after-infection/

There's also the length of Sars cov1 and Mers 's immunity as a guide too.

One unintended silver lining in the cloud of high infection rates right now and Springtime is a good number of people have been organically rather than synthetically vaccinated. 

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15 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

Nice video that shows what nonsense some people have been posting on this forum for months.

 

 

 

 

It's strange. The video shows a huge spike of deaths in March, 'back when the virus was really out of control'. I don't remember it that way at all. My recollection was that, at least in early March, the number of infections numbered in the hundreds. It was bad in China, Italy and Iran.

In UK number of new cases peaked at about 5000 per day in April. Nothing like the numbers we are seeing now. Anyone else remember a big spike in deaths in March? I suppose I could always read back in the thread and check.

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2 minutes ago, Biggus said:

 

It's strange. The video shows a huge spike of deaths in March, 'back when the virus was really out of control'. I don't remember it that way at all. My recollection was that, at least in early March, the number of infections numbered in the hundreds. It was bad in China, Italy and Iran.

In UK number of new cases peaked at about 5000 per day in April. Nothing like the numbers we are seeing now. Anyone else remember a big spike in deaths in March? I suppose I could always read back in the thread and check.

Yes, the virus was out of control in March - the cases date is because we just weren't really testing for it (selected hospital admissions only).

If you look at admissions data they peak at the start of April in the first wave. Deaths increase rapidly through last week of March and peak around end of 1st week in April - so these would be infections acquired from the start to mid March.

 

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1 minute ago, Clarky Cat said:

Yes, the virus was out of control in March - the cases date is because we just weren't really testing for it (selected hospital admissions only).

If you look at admissions data they peak at the start of April in the first wave. Deaths increase rapidly through last week of March and peak around end of 1st week in April - so these would be infections acquired from the start to mid March.

 

 

I'll take your word for it. My memory is a bit flaky at the best of times.

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15 minutes ago, Biggus said:

 

It's strange. The video shows a huge spike of deaths in March, 'back when the virus was really out of control'. I don't remember it that way at all. My recollection was that, at least in early March, the number of infections numbered in the hundreds. It was bad in China, Italy and Iran.

In UK number of new cases peaked at about 5000 per day in April. Nothing like the numbers we are seeing now. Anyone else remember a big spike in deaths in March? I suppose I could always read back in the thread and check.

Deaths in April were 1,000 a day, the level we're at now. Cases were lower because we weren't testing enough to find them. Which suggests that cases in April were at current levels or higher.

PRI_178988579.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&z

 

Edited by ticket2ride
April not March
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3 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Deaths in April were 1,000 a day, the level we're at now. Cases were lower because we weren't testing enough to find them. Which suggests that cases in April were at current levels or higher.

PRI_178988579.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&z

 

 

2 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

 

Wow, in hindsight it took off really quickly. I guess testing must have been really poor back then. Clearly 20% fatality rate does not look correct! I guess we're catching most cases now, though?

Yeah, my memory is not the most accurate. Especially at the moment.

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Herd immunity by infection is not an option.

Science paper using data from Manaus, Brazil.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/230.full

Herd immunity is expected to arise when a virus cannot spread readily, because it encounters a population that has a level of immunity that reduces the number of individuals susceptible to infection. On page 288 of this issue, Buss et al. (1) describe the extent of the largely uncontrolled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in Brazil. Their data show the impact on mortality rates of a largely unmitigated outbreak where even with an estimated 76% of the population being infected, herd immunity was not achieved. Manaus provides a cautionary example of unmitigated spread across a population, showing that herd immunity is likely not achieved even at high levels of infection and that it comes with unacceptably high costs.

Buss et al. used data on the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2–specific antibodies (seroprevalence) in blood donors, adjusted for waning antibody responses over time, to calculate an estimated attack rate for COVID-19 of 66% in June, rising to 76% in October, in Manaus. The attack rate is the proportion of at-risk people who develop infection after exposure in a period of time. This attack rate resulted in a factor of 4.5 excess mortality in 2020 relative to previous years. The infection fatality rate was estimated to be between 0.17% and 0.28%, consistent with the population being predominantly young and at reduced risk of death from COVID-19. Manaus recorded 2642 [1193/million inhabitants (mil)] confirmed deaths from COVID-19 and 3789 (1710/mil) deaths from severe acute respiratory syndrome likely to have been caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. These figures are starkly different from the fatality rates during the same period (until 1 October) in the United Kingdom (620/mil), France (490/mil), and the United States (625/mil), and orders of magnitude higher than in Australia (36/mil), Taiwan (0.3/mil), and New Zealand (5/mil). Despite such a high proportion of the population being infected, transmission in Manaus has continued, even in the presence of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), with the effective reproduction rate (R) near 1.

These data have numerous implications. In particular, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to reduce the number of susceptible individuals sufficiently to reverse epidemic growth, is likely to be high for SARS-CoV-2. If the basic reproduction number (R0)—that is, the average number of secondary infections resulting from an index case in a fully susceptible population—is 2.5 to 3, as estimated within Manaus, the expected attack rate would be 89 to 94% and the HIT is expected to be 60 to 70% for a homogeneous population (2). Although the epidemic was largely unmitigated in Manaus at the outset, the subsequent introduction of behavioral change (such as social distancing) and NPIs (such as masks), together with nonhomogeneous population mixing, may explain the lower than expected attack rate. However, even with an estimated 76% of the population being infected, it appears the HIT was not reached. It is unclear whether this is due to waning immunity after infection, to a higher HIT than previously anticipated, or possibly a lower attack rate than estimated. Accruing data on reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 suggests that primary infection may not consistently confer long-term immunity to all infected, although the frequency of reinfection and the correlates of an effective immune response remain poorly understood. If immunity wanes over time, exposed individuals may revert to becoming susceptible, providing a new susceptible population that may then contribute to transmission.

These findings also suggest that the majority of people who are unexposed are susceptible to this virus. Although some have suggested that there may be a degree of preexisting cross-reactive T cell and humoral (antibody-related) immunity against SARS-CoV-2 (3, 4) and that a lower proportion of infection of only 10 to 40% of the population could achieve herd immunity (5), the study of Buss et al. shows that there is no meaningful level of any such immunity.

Additionally, given that seroprevalence is under 20% in most countries (6), these data suggest that without strict control measures, the epidemic would continue to accelerate for many months ahead, with an unacceptably high cost. The deaths that would accrue in pursuit of naturally acquired herd immunity would be catastrophic. Manaus has a particularly young population. In populations with a higher proportion of older people, the overall infection fatality rates would be higher, between 0.46% and 0.72% as seen in São Paulo (1). Applying age-specific infection fatality rates estimated from the Manaus data, a 76% attack rate would mean 350,000, 386,000, and 1.58 million deaths in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, respectively.

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28 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Deaths in April were 1,000 a day, the level we're at now. Cases were lower because we weren't testing enough to find them. Which suggests that cases in April were at current levels or higher.

PRI_178988579.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&z

 

You can probably add 200 or so to the new deaths cf. april because of the new treatment availability.

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On 10/01/2021 at 12:24, Will! said:

Just to put a few numbers on that, from 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/urgent-and-emergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/

On 2nd November 2020 there were 4,212 adult critical care beds available.  This includes all adult critical care (ITU, HDU or other) beds that are funded and available for critical care patients (levels 2 and 3). The figures provided relate to the latest position on the day of reporting. This is the actual number of beds at that time and not the planned number of beds. Beds funded but not available due to staff vacancies are not counted.  2,960 were occupied including 1,075 by Covid patients.

This gives a total bed occupancy of 2960/4212 * 100% = 70%, including Covid occupancy of 26%.

On 3rd January 2021 there were 4,951 adult critical care beds available.  3,981 were occupied including 2,420 Covid patients.

This gives a total bed occupancy of 3981/4951 * 100% = 80%, including Covid occupancy of 49%.

On the subject of projections and predictions, critically care bed occupancy is increasing exponentially with a current doubling time of 17 days.  This is similar to the situation in France in October and November 2020.  France introduced a lockdown on 30th October and their critical care bed occupancy peaked on 16th November.

To project from the current situation, UK base adult critical care capacity of 5,500 beds will be occupied by Covid patients by 23rd January.  However, the peak in France in November was very sharp, when the rate of increase began to fall it did so rapidly.

 

My apologies, I made a mistake with the above numbers and quoted UK Covid patients instead of England Covid patients.  I'd like to restate and update the numbers.  For simplicity I'll just use the England numbers.

On 2nd November 2020 there were 4,212 adult critical care beds available. This includes all adult critical care (ITU, HDU or other) beds that are funded and available for critical care patients (levels 2 and 3). The figures provided relate to the latest position on the day of reporting. This is the actual number of beds at that time and not the planned number of beds. Beds funded but not available due to staff vacancies are not counted. 2,960 were occupied including 883 by Covid patients.

This gives a total bed occupancy of 2960/4212 * 100% = 70%, including Covid occupancy of 21%.

On 3rd January 2021 there were 4,951 adult critical care beds available.  3,981 were occupied including 2,181 Covid patients.

This gives a total bed occupancy of 3981/4951 * 100% = 80%, including Covid occupancy of 44%.

On 10th January 2021 there were 5,503 adult critical care beds available.  4,632 were occupied including 2,963 Covid patients.

This gives a total bed occupancy of 4632/5503 * 100% = 84%, including Covid occupancy of 54%.

England surge adult critical care capacity is difficult to quantify and not entirely fungible, but it is probably about 6,000 beds.

In England critical care bed occupancy is still increasing exponentially with a current doubling time of 17 days.

To project from the current situation, England surge adult critical care capacity of 6,000 beds would be occupied by Covid patients by Thursday 28th January.

Edited by Will!
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52 minutes ago, Biggus said:

 

 

Wow, in hindsight it took off really quickly. I guess testing must have been really poor back then. Clearly 20% fatality rate does not look correct! I guess we're catching most cases now, though?

Yeah, my memory is not the most accurate. Especially at the moment.

Hard to say. Many who can't afford to isolate if you get a positive test aren't getting tested. Who knows what numbers these are?

 

30 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

You can probably add 200 or so to the new deaths cf. april because of the new treatment availability.

Seems plausible.

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