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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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33 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Sounds horrific ūüėį Quite a few hospitals in England have been close to not being able to provide enough oxygen.

Is this a bit like the ventilator shortage ? What happened with that ?

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58 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

 

domorebedshavepatientsin.png

 

1 hour ago, Dr Doom said:

 

domorebedshavepatientsin.png

You posted this before and I told you that any averagely intelligent person could think of multiple reasons why hospitals are not running at full capacity in a few seconds.

Days later and you have still not managed? 

 

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You posted this before and I told you that any averagely intelligent person could think of multiple reasons why hospitals are not running at full capacity in a few seconds.

Days later and you have still not managed? 

Can you explain it to me again ? I'm a bit slow.

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12 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Sounds horrific ūüėį Quite a few hospitals in England have been close to not being able to provide enough oxygen.

IF true then sounds like yet another f**k up by this government in not being able to forward prepare/plan for likely needed resources that, in principle, should not be difficult to get hold of.

I'm increasingly convinced that the PM's (and cabinets) approach to dealing with this pandemic has, from the outset, been to listen to what SAGE tells them and privately not want to believe what they are told is possible and adopt a 'let's hope for the best approach', which is reflected in half measures as far as any planning for the worst goes.

 

Edited by anonguest
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2 minutes ago, anonguest said:

IF true then sounds like yet another f**k up by this government in not being able to forward prepare/plan for likely needed resources that, in principle, should not be difficult to get hold of.

 

The hospital were not designed to have hundreds of patients requiring oxygen, upgrading the oxygen infrastructure and  pipework is not an easy task especially in the middle of a pandemic.

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1 hour ago, Dr Doom said:

People staying at home and dying of other untreated conditions is really helping to save the NHS

The other concern is what happens with all the other viruses when the great unlock happens? I believe that regular, low-level exposure, gives you a maintained level of resistance. What happens with influenza , norovirus and rhinoviruses etc after a whole bunch of new virus releases (including new variants) and people who have lost immunity?

 

(Think of coming out a of enduring lockdown as like turning up at a hacker conference running Windows 95 with no AV software. Daily exposure is your software update.)

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The other concern is what happens with all the other viruses when the great unlock happens? I believe that regular, low-level exposure, gives you a maintained level of resistance. What happens with influenza , norovirus and rhinoviruses etc after a whole bunch of new virus releases (including new variants) and people who have lost immunity?

I've reflected on that issue a few times given that, somehow or another, I haven't had any sort of viral infection (e.g. not even a simple cold) for at least a decade!  Indeed last proper infection/illness I had was almost certainly flu proper.  I am assuming that this has been achieved through regular practicsing of the sort of simple/basic hygeine that it seem the country has been learning only this year (e.g. quick washing my hands whenever getting home from having been anywhere outdoors/on public transport/etc).

So does kind of make me wonder/worry that as and when (not IF) I next pick up a simple bug, it could well end up being horrible!¬† ūüėě

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5 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

Are you serious?

One of those would last 12 seconds with high flow nasal oxygen,  40 seconds on a high flow mask and 5 minutes on a "trickle" setting.

What would you suggest then ?

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24 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Perhaos, BUT will anyone be surprised IF it transpires that, after the all the bureacracy is dealt with, the cost will be multiples of what you or I would pay as individuals?

Portable canisters last at most 2hrs each (al lot less for patients requiring a high O2 concentration), so minimum 12 a day and constant monitoring/regular changeovers required.

Not a great solution.  

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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18 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The other concern is what happens with all the other viruses when the great unlock happens? I believe that regular, low-level exposure, gives you a maintained level of resistance. What happens with influenza , norovirus and rhinoviruses etc after a whole bunch of new virus releases (including new variants) and people who have lost immunity?

This is why if we are let out of lockdown they will put us back in lockdown. The longer it goes on for the easier it becomes (for them). For example, Andrew Yang is calling for Universal Basic income in his New York mayoral run.

Edited by Arpeggio
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14 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I've reflected on that issue a few times given that, somehow or another, I haven't had any sort of viral infection (e.g. not even a simple cold) for at least a decade!

Same here. I have a healthy diet and exercise.

14 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Indeed last proper infection/illness I had was almost certainly flu proper.  I am assuming that this has been achieved through regular practicsing of the sort of simple/basic hygeine that it seem the country has been learning only this year (e.g. quick washing my hands whenever getting home from having been anywhere outdoors/on public transport/etc).

So does kind of make me wonder/worry that as and when (not IF) I next pick up a simple bug, it could well end up being horrible!¬† ūüėě

You are equating noticing having infection (symptomatic) with having infection!

Maybe you being healthy is part of the explanation for this.

Edited by Arpeggio
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Just now, Confusion of VIs said:

Those canisters would last at most 2hrs each (al lot less for patients requiring a high O2 concentration), so minimum 12 a day and constant monitoring/regular changeovers required.

Not a great solution.  

My point was not so much those particular products but that government trying to procure anything on the open market, in an emergency situation, a seemingly simple process - would for sure be made more complicated, costly and slower then it should.  Witness, for example, the reports/complaints a week back of the paperwork that experienced volunteers were having to go through just to qualify to administer the vaccine jabs - something many of those people had likely spent many years routinely doing.

Even so, the government has had plenty of warning about hospital and ICU capacity likely being at rsik of being overwhelmed.  You would think some civil servant somewhere would have the ability to think of/suggest that effortsd be made to ensure oxygen supply resources were tip top?

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Just now, Arpeggio said:

Same here. I have a healthy diet and exercise.

I wish I could say the same!¬† ūüėě

Just now, Arpeggio said:

You are equating noticing having infection (symptomatic) with having infection!

Maybe you being healthy is part of the explanation for this.

Highly unlikely IMHO

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2 minutes ago, anonguest said:

My point was not so much those particular products but that government trying to procure anything on the open market, in an emergency situation, a seemingly simple process - would for sure be made more complicated, costly and slower then it should.  Witness, for example, the reports/complaints a week back of the paperwork that experienced volunteers were having to go through just to qualify to administer the vaccine jabs - something many of those people had likely spent many years routinely doing.

Even so, the government has had plenty of warning about hospital and ICU capacity likely being at rsik of being overwhelmed.  You would think some civil servant somewhere would have the ability to think of/suggest that effortsd be made to ensure oxygen supply resources were tip top?

Oxygen supply was problematic back in April. That's some 8 months ago. It can hardly be a surprise that we are running very low.

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Just now, miguel said:

Oxygen supply was problematic back in April. That's some 8 months ago. It can hardly be a surprise that we are running very low.

Even worse then, if true.  They had 8 months to rectify the situation but presumably haven't?

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1 minute ago, Dr Doom said:

My point was the ventilator shortage was a lie, it's very easy to get lots of ventilators as it transpired

At the time they thought they would need them in a few weeks which was impossible over a longer period yes you can get lots and that is what happened. The oxygen thing is bad planning and not managing the number of people infected properly. 

Over a longer time frame you can upgrade pipe work and tanks to have everyone on oxygen but near term things are tight. 

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