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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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1 hour ago, Brave New World said:

My wife had the vaccine today, due to her work as a nurse. Pfizer one.

Ditto, nurse wife getting Pfizer today.

Nearly had to cancel as my daughter had symptoms, a lateral flow test at home and PCR at testing center both came back negative. 

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Just now, NobodyInParticular said:

Covid - 19 deaths so far in the last 10 months have been at around 60% of cancer deaths, so the margin isn't as large as you might with to believe. 

Research spending on cancer in the UK is about £500m a year. CRUK cut it by £45m in 2020, due to a drop in income due to the economic effects of COVID 19. I don't know what COVID-19 research funding was. Presumably the cancer funding will go back up as the economy improves (I would expect and hope so). £45m compared to the PPE and track and trace fiascos is peanuts and the government should have filled the gap after not having spaffed the cash up the nearest wall.

 

Except that cancer is continuous year in year out.  Whereas this pandemic is a transient event that will end.

 

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7 minutes ago, nightowl said:

With the March budget and the two furloughs, the Treasury seemed on the ball of what was within their remit.  Sage will always want more anti covid measures in place for as longer than needed if left unchecked and the treasury is the only counter balance while MPs are sitting

The reason why so many people have died, got infected and caused so much economic damage is because SAGE advice was not followed when it mattered - February 2020.

If Treasury was a 'counter balance' to stopping the virus, then they are responsible for this mess. No sure if the blame rests with them, more likely Bojo. 

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Just now, Peter Hun said:

The reason why so many people have died, got infected and caused so much economic damage is because SAGE advice was not followed when it mattered - February 2020.

If Treasury was a 'counter balance' to stopping the virus, then they are responsible for this mess. No sure if the blame rests with them, more likely Bojo. 

Let me guess you didn't like Bojo or his party before though?  Presumably BJ are co are running all the other countries in the same situation this last 10 months? 

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23 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Except that cancer is continuous year in year out.  Whereas this pandemic is a transient event that will end.

Afraid not. They have said it will be seasonal and Chris Witty has already floated the idea of lockdown for Winter 2021 as you might know. Then there's the new strain from Brazil they are talking about now.

Never get the Mayan with dyslexia to write the records. 2021 not 2012.

Edited by Arpeggio
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16 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Let me guess you didn't like Bojo or his party before though?  Presumably BJ are co are running all the other countries in the same situation this last 10 months? 

I am not going to be critical of him for a cycle ride, and he did better than the Swedish PM, but worse than most (I write from Denmark where it was handled far, far better).

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Just now, Arpeggio said:

Afraid not. They have said it will be seasonal and Chris Witty has already floated the idea of lockdown for Winter 2021 as you might know.

Never get the Mayan with dyslexia to write the records. 2021 not 2012.

Very possibly. BUT, unless you are assuming that there there is no such thing and that there will be no herd immunity effect at work by that time, then subsequent seasons should presumably be much lesser in magnitude than this initial epidemic - assuming the intrinsic lethality fo the virus does not change significanly for the worse.

Edited by anonguest
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Just now, anonguest said:

Very possibly. BUT, unless you are assuming that there there is no such thing and that there will be no herd immunity effect at work by then, subsequent seasons should presumably be much lesser in magnitude than this initial epidemic - assuming the intrinsic lethality fo the virus does not change significanly for the worse.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. What I meant was they have no intention of exiting this in any way that resembles pre-2020.

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2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

That is his immune system reacting. The first dose will prime the immune system, the second dose makes it a recurrent threat. It is a good sign.

Pity that I am the one to ask, so on the behalf of anyone interested, please describe what is a recurrent threat after the 2nd dose.

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2 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Pity that I am the one to ask, so on the behalf of anyone interested, please describe what is a recurrent threat after the 2nd dose.

There is a disease called Covid-19 that is going around. The vaccine is to prevent that disease and prime the immune system for it.

I am surprised you are unaware of the issue.

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48 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I am not going to be critical of him for a cycle ride, and he did better than the Swedish PM, but worse than most (I write from Denmark where it was handled far, far better).

Nothing wrong with his cycle ride, but dealing the first lockdown 3 weeks after was catastrophic, end result is we are here.

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Guys - Can you help me understand the figures in this story please. Everyday this newspaper publishes a set of figures and they always follow the same pattern. In particular I am trying to get my head around the number in bold. For today's figures (for England, not national) they have said:

"A further 1,012 people who tested positive for corona virus have died in hospital in England, bringing the total number of confirmed deaths reported in hospitals to 57,828, NHS England said on Wednesday. The corona virus deaths were between May 8 and January 12, with the majority being on or after January 6. Patients were aged between 39 and 102. All except 46, aged between 39 and 98, had known underlying health conditions. There were 54 other deaths reported with no positive Covid-19 test result."

Same every day, Corona virus deaths around a thousand and non covid, in the tens.

I emailed the paper to ask for clarification and for the source of where they got the numbers from but all they did was repeat what was said in the article - 

"The 1,012 figure is the number of recorded people who died in hospitals only (so not at home or in a care home) and the 54 is the number of recorded deaths in hospitals not related to Covid at all. 

Am I barking up the wrong tree here or is this saying out of every hospital death recorded yesterday, only 54 were unrelated to Covid? Does that sound right? Is practically everyone who dies in hospital now dying of covid?

Original article https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-19619704 

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37 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I am not going to be critical of him for a cycle ride, and he did better than the Swedish PM, but worse than most (I write from Denmark where it was handled far, far better).

Yes that bike ride thing was a storm in a teacup but only came about because some police force's were assuming they decide the law in harassing people behaving harmlessly, so got picked up on. 

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Afraid not. They have said it will be seasonal and Chris Witty has already floated the idea of lockdown for Winter 2021 as you might know.

Floated the idea.... yep seems like they are very wedded to the idea. I wonder if there are few potential covid victims left by then he will adopt good old Flu as the reason this time 🤔

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4 hours ago, winkie said:

So another 1500 + died in last 24 hours evermore have been tested positive.......the question is how did they catch it? where did they catch it?........ if know the answer to that, can find out how to recover from it, know what to do to prevent ever more infection......it is pretty plain, clear and obvious there is a leak in the lockdown.;)

This is why we need an effective track and trace system that looks forward and backward.  Functions well enough in South Korea, who offered to help (according to Sky news) and also in Japan.  BoJo and the Clowns declined the offer of help from SK.  The bitter part is that if you plot numbers of infected and add 28 days, as time from infection to death, then today's death figures do not represent the peak.  So we have worse news to come.

Think it was Uncle Joe who said "one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

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1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

There is a disease called Covid-19 that is going around. The vaccine is to prevent that disease and prime the immune system for it.

I am surprised you are unaware of the issue.

This is your answer to asking what you meant by saying "the second dose makes it a recurrent threat".

I assume, in other words, this means you don't know.

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8 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

This is why we need an effective track and trace system that looks forward and backward.  Functions well enough in South Korea, who offered to help (according to Sky news) and also in Japan.  BoJo and the Clowns declined the offer of help from SK.  The bitter part is that if you plot numbers of infected and add 28 days, as time from infection to death, then today's death figures do not represent the peak.  So we have worse news to come.

Think it was Uncle Joe who said "one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

The 'World beating track and trace' was planned as another river of tax payer money into cronies pockets. If it worked that would be a lucky bonus but like every single covid outsourcing project, it has been a case of profits for the right people first and 'can they do the job properly and good value' a very poor second.  Cant let a good war  virus go to waste can we.  I'm still trying to figure out how the inner circle of Tories and their cronies are going to milk brexit (beyond running the UK as the worlds biggest money laundering machine)

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3 hours ago, nightowl said:

With the March budget and the two furloughs, the Treasury seemed on the ball of what was within their remit.  Sage will always want more anti covid measures in place for as longer than needed if left unchecked and the treasury is the only counter balance while MPs are sitting

Whatever it seemed to you at the time, not enough weight was given to the scientific advice resulting in us doing too little too late.

The Treasury where no were near the ball and their refusal to guarantee to pay people who needed to self isolate (resulting in only 30% following the rules) has undermined all attempts to control the epidemic.

According to the CDC report we left it later and did less to tackle the initial outbreak than any of the other 36 European countries covered in their report, resulting in over 20,000 unnecessary first wave deaths. 

Despite it being clear that early and hard lockdowns had achieved the best outcomes, for both health and the economy, we carry on repeating the same misguided policy of too little to late with the predictable outcome that we have now regained the unwanted title of having the most deaths in Europe.

In the end all the Treasuries involvement will have achieved is more deaths and a bigger bill.  

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6 hours ago, Bob8 said:

That is his immune system reacting. The first dose will prime the immune system, the second dose makes it a recurrent threat. It is a good sign.

Thank you, that is interesting.

Do you have a link to back that up?

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3 hours ago, Glenn said:

(...)

Am I barking up the wrong tree here or is this saying out of every hospital death recorded yesterday, only 54 were unrelated to Covid? Does that sound right? Is practically everyone who dies in hospital now dying of covid?

Original article https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-19619704 

Yes, sort of.

Practically everyone who died in hospital recently had got a positive Covid test.

But how many died of a car crash or cancer / heart attack / flu etc and / or caught it there?

I literally have no idea.

 

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1 hour ago, Timm said:

Yes, sort of.

Practically everyone who died in hospital recently had got a positive Covid test.

But how many died of a car crash or cancer / heart attack / flu etc and / or caught it there?

I literally have no idea.

 

Why should you, you are not a actuary/statistician (i presume) and it is not your job.

Those who are paid to have an idea have picked death within 28 days as the correct statistical proxy for Covid deaths. They calculate that non Covid deaths within 28 days are balanced by Covid deaths post 28 days. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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8 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

This is your answer to asking what you meant by saying "the second dose makes it a recurrent threat".

I assume, in other words, this means you don't know.

:smh:

The immune system see strange foreign antigens all the time. It fights parasites, tumors, viruses and pathogenic bacteria all the time. The initial immune response will fade away quickly, but a second exposure gears the immune system up that the antigen is likely to be a regular threat.

This is the absolute basics to the introduction to immunology at A level, before you get to the technical stuff. I learnt this at about sixteen.

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11 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Ditto, nurse wife getting Pfizer today.

Nearly had to cancel as my daughter had symptoms, a lateral flow test at home and PCR at testing center both came back negative. 

Again, I am not anti-vaccine, but it looks like the efficacy of the vaccines has been overstated:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9142659/Previous-coronavirus-infection-gives-protection-against-reinfection-Oxford-vaccine.html?login#article-9142659

Essentially the scientists saying 95% and so on, failed to take into account asymptomatic exposures that gave natural immunity..  

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13 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

Vaccine topic is now locked. Has anyone here had it?

I'd take it and even turn up on standby and have any left over to avoid wastage.

 

My mum has had it. She's 75 and wasn't due to have it yet, but there is apparently an issue with people in the high risk groups not turning up to their appointments, so she got one of the unused doses before they had to throw it out.

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