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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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Vaccines won't be the end of it according to the "experts" so the last year or so of these people's lives may be behind glass.

...As opposed to their last year meaningfully spent playing sports, music festivals, motorcycle racing, wingsuit flying, pubs, nightclubs and travel.  

 Close contact visits and deathbed goodbyes curtailed is big I know, but their lives are very restricted already -that's why they are there. 

 Care homes known to be covid killing feilds -unless we all accept a joint risk of a  'no gandpa for Christmas, as Doris went out for sunday dinner with family last week'

 These are are the really difficult choices any alternative policy leads to, any discussion of which seems a taboo. This is isolating the vulnerables, advocates of which identified this as a solution now see it as the problem.

 Are we Beasts?

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...As opposed to their last year meaningfully spent playing sports, music festivals, motorcycle racing, wingsuit flying, pubs, nightclubs and travel.  

 Close contact visits and deathbed goodbyes curtailed is big I know, but their lives are very restricted already -that's why they are there. 

 Care homes known to be covid killing feilds -unless we all accept a joint risk of a  'no gandpa for Christmas, as Doris went out for sunday dinner with family last week'

 These are are the really difficult choices any alternative policy leads to, any discussion of which seems a taboo. This is isolating the vulnerables, advocates of which identified this as a solution now see it as the problem.

 Are we Beasts?

You seem to be against letting old people speak for themselves or make their own decisions as to how they want to spend the remainder of their life.

Maybe you are enjoying it, possibly it's even sexual for you?

What were you in prison for by the way?

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No one wants to put vulnerable folk at risk of catching covid. However we're now at the point where extending the lockdown will put so many businesses under the bus, that suicides and criminal acts will rocket.

The only reasonable action is to shield the high-risk groups (until vaccines do their stuff) and allow the rest of us to judge for ourselves what is risky. I can't see that a supermarket open for 1000s of customers each day is riskier than a local pub or restaurant where people can at least seek out empty corners (or drink outside)

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Hopefully so, don't you think they should be using the latest information to inform decision making. By the time models have been tidied up for wider circulation with contextual notes appendixes added and published they are out of date. 

I sign off on the models produced by my company, it is not unusual for them to have +50 pages of explanatory notes and reasoning behind the assumptions being made.  The sign off process takes at best several weeks

They still haven't been published. Nadda. What with a 300 to 400 hundred billion spend on this.. Is Jeff on holiday? Can't nobody finalise and publish? Why not? 

If a bypass gets canned due to newts the full survey report is published along with all the underlying data. 

This isn't a bizarre there is no case for a lockdown nor some form of conspiracy that a risk doesn't exist. However there are plenty that can and do question the cost benefit of a lockdown(s). Potentially this is marginal gain at immense secondary costs in the medium to long term - health and other. 

To not make public the data they are using to justify the decision is astonishing. 

 

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Good to see only a pathetic dribble of thickos attended todays 'Freedom' march. With a good handful thankfully arrrested. These covidiot bed-wetters will not define the narrative of this pandemic.

 

At least 22 are arrested after anti-lockdown protesters chanting 'freedom' clash with police as hundreds march against Covid restrictions through streets of Bournemouth, Liverpool, Basildon and Hyde Park

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You seem to be against letting old people speak for themselves or make their own decisions as to how they want to spend the remainder of their life.

Maybe you are enjoying it, possibly it's even sexual for you?

What were you in prison for by the way?

 If you comprehended what I said, most EMI residents in care are already lock-in. Through choice or by legal constraint. Sad but true; their lives are already constrianed, both physically,logistically and legally. Anything more than an afternoon out needs prior approval. 

 For EMI, they actually don't have the ablity to speak for themselves or make decisons -this is the very essence of my point you missed -hence the legal references.

 Your odd sexual references seem a little irrelevant here. The gimp mask in my youtube clip was actually slipknot, but would suffice for a dildo in the absence of a more considered response from you here to very real ethical dilemas and paradoxes inherent in all and any alternative strategies.

 We accepted low risk/high cost, thats what we are apparently getting. 

 Personally I would do the opposite but a minorty view I accept.  

 Difference is, there was never a  low cost/low risk solution, ever. This is the big lie.

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 If you comprehended what I said, most EMI residents in care are already lock-in. Through choice or by legal constraint. Sad but true; their lives are already constrianed, both physically,logistically and legally. Anything more than an afternoon out needs prior approval. 

 For EMI, they actually don't have the ablity to speak for themselves or make decisons -this is the very essence of my point you missed -hence the legal references.

 Your odd sexual references seem a little irrelevant here. The gimp mask in my youtube clip was actually slipknot, but would suffice for a dildo in the absence of a more considered response from you here to very real ethical dilemas and paradoxes inherent in all and any alternative strategies.

 We accepted low risk/high cost, thats what we are apparently getting. 

 Personally I would do the opposite but a minorty view I accept.  

 Difference is, there was never a  low cost/low risk solution, ever. This is the big lie.

Either you are in on it or too stupid to realize that we will be in the same situation in a years time and you will be using the same arguments. There is something very wrong with you.

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Good to see only a pathetic dribble of thickos attended todays 'Freedom' march. With a good handful thankfully arrrested. These covidiot bed-wetters will not define the narrative of this pandemic.

At least 22 are arrested after anti-lockdown protesters chanting 'freedom' clash with police as hundreds march against Covid restrictions through streets of Bournemouth, Liverpool, Basildon and Hyde Park

Police are in a contract with the government and are high on the priority list for the series of vaccines for which there is no liability. If any have an adverse reaction to whatever extent they will have no recourse and be ignored.

This is generally true for many who work in the public sector and will be receiving a series of liability free vaccines lest face consequences or lose their job.

Couldn't catch "jewishness" in the 1930s. Problem with a virus (for which there is still no evidence exists according to PHE) is that even though it's a good "catch all" excuse to f*ck over a whole population into the "Great Reset", by that same merit you can't exclude the useful idiots.

Even PeterHun wants to give it a year before taking the vaccine. I have to say I am impressed by what seems to be a lesser idiot.

The majority of comments on that article don't resonate with your views.

Have fun behind your sofa and try not to use up too much oxygen with the candle in the cupboard under your stair case.

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The next phase begins. Food.

New Mexico Closures of Grocery Stores Over Coronavirus Prompts Half-Mile Long Lines

You're not going to want to be a p*ssy whinging about lock down deniers from behind your computer if / when things get desperate.

Almost forgot to mention: Trucks might stop delivering to some major US cities in late Nov. Prior to this, at times violence meant that truckers were not confident of going into certain areas without getting attacked. This is mostly Democrat areas where the violence is. I have been foreseeing potential food chain problems since months back. Albeit the above applies to the US, it's worth bearing in mind.

Edited by Arpeggio
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The next phase begins. Food.

New Mexico Closures of Grocery Stores Over Coronavirus Prompts Half-Mile Long Lines

You're not going to want to be a p*ssy whinging about lock down deniers from behind your computer if / when things get desperate.

Do you ever consider if anything is nonsense before posting? 

New Mexico has not closed grocery stores, there is no mass starvation going on, some lines due to people bulk buying and limits in place on store capacity. 

I had to que for waitrose today. Pretty dull - if I take a picture can you get a story going on one of these wacko sites? Come on they would love an international angle.

 

"Mass starvation in Londonistan as GROCERYs LIMITED in Cv19 new world reset" 

Look even written the headline for you. 2 pictures one of the line outside waitrose and another of a sad skinny person holding only 2 packets of pasta next to the 2 per customer sign. 

If we set this up close to closing can probably also sort an empty shelf picture as well... Maybe the bread section... Game changer. 

Edited by captainb
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Do you ever consider if anything is nonsense before posting? 

New Mexico has not closed grocery stores, there is no mass starvation going on, some lines due to people bulk buying and limits in place on store capacity. 

I had to que for waitrose today. Pretty dull - if I take a picture can you get a story going on one of these wacko sites? Come on they would love an international angle.

Half mile long lines for food.

It doesn't happen over night. By the time food is rationed you'll be thinking the same. By the time mandates are enforced with people having little choice, having been dismantled more, you will be saying the same.

The slower you push things and get people to accept them the further you can go. This isn't just half mile long lines for food, it's Sainsburies half mile (only joking) it's half mile lines for food of people, many of which have lost their job / are poorer and are now more so paying for the food with money they got from the same government they are therefore more dependent on, that is imposing all of this. It's a multifaceted approach.

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Half mile long lines for food.

It doesn't happen over night. By the time food is rationed you'll be thinking the same. By the time mandates are enforced with people having little choice, having been dismantled more, you will be saying the same.

The slower you push things and get people to accept them the further you can go. This isn't just half mile long lines for food, it's Sainsburies half mile (only joking) it's half mile lines for food of people, many of which have lost their job / are poorer and are now more so paying for the food with money they got from the same government they are therefore more dependent on, that is imposing all of this. It's a multifaceted approach.

There are not habitually half mile long ques for food in arizona. That is just nonsense. 

There are half mile lines for food in londonistan. As per my waitrose visit today. See? Reality and just writing some thread of "truth" nonsense on the Internet can be very different. Need to step back and consider source and context. Both of which are very much lacking in what you posted. 

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The predictions were wrong. 

They are not predictions, they are forecasts made based upon a set of assumptions.

As after months of effort you have been unable to get your head around this simple fact i think it is probably time to give up and move on to something you have more natural affinity with. 

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They still haven't been published. Nadda. What with a 300 to 400 hundred billion spend on this.. Is Jeff on holiday? Can't nobody finalise and publish? Why not? 

If a bypass gets canned due to newts the full survey report is published along with all the underlying data. 

This isn't a bizarre there is no case for a lockdown nor some form of conspiracy that a risk doesn't exist. However there are plenty that can and do question the cost benefit of a lockdown(s). Potentially this is marginal gain at immense secondary costs in the medium to long term - health and other. 

To not make public the data they are using to justify the decision is astonishing. 

 

Cannot be true, Boris said they would be. You must have missed them. 

More sensibly what do you mean by published, it could mean anything from a graph with a dotted line on it to hundreds of GB of code, assumptions data and calculations that underpin the dotted line, some of which will have data protection issues.   

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Adults who like to have secs with children are more likely to vote left / globalist / liberal.

https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/gov-newsom-signs-bill-to-protect-sex-offenders-who-have-homosexual-sex-with-minors/

The thing is we haven't made the name "pedo" a go-to standard name for Remainers.

Are you sure? I think plenty of right wingers, including Tories like small children too.

It’s the centrists who are the normal ones.

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Do you ever consider if anything is nonsense before posting? 

New Mexico has not closed grocery stores, there is no mass starvation going on, some lines due to people bulk buying and limits in place on store capacity. 

I had to que for waitrose today. Pretty dull - if I take a picture can you get a story going on one of these wacko sites? Come on they would love an international angle.

 

"Mass starvation in Londonistan as GROCERYs LIMITED in Cv19 new world reset" 

Look even written the headline for you. 2 pictures one of the line outside waitrose and another of a sad skinny person holding only 2 packets of pasta next to the 2 per customer sign. 

If we set this up close to closing can probably also sort an empty shelf picture as well... Maybe the bread section... Game changer. 

LOL 😂

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Are you sure? I think plenty of right wingers, including Tories like small children too.

It’s the centrists who are the normal ones.

You really ought to check out the history of the Liberals/Lib Dems when it comes to that subject!

 

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Of course. But from a very low baseline.

The Japanese govt has suspended its national travel campaign as a result. That suspension might be made permanent if the new case numbers fail to roll over in the next two weeks.

Respectfully, it's kind of irrelevant though isn't it. For me at least, the point about Japan and South Korea being back on the covid naughty step is that the eradication brigade were telling us their responses were so good (and they did do bloody well tbf) that they'd eradicated it and we in Europe etc. through shyness to the zero covid mantra were doomed to endless cycles of "pick 'n choose" style lockdowns. Clearly this is not the case, black and white, happening right now, no models, no conjecture, no bs.

Now, nobody or certainly no government is perfect but your beloved endcoronavirus.org site preaches (briefly summarised) hard aggressive lockdown, close borders then test test test. Maybe Japan and South Korea slipped up on testing? But they were lauded with praise as having achieved covid nirvana, not so simple it seems. I'm open minded and not against the eradication idea but it's important if you want to get people on board to understand what went wrong with your darling luvvies in the Far East, it's important to take intellectual responsibility and not let it slip into that old Marxist trope of "ah well that wasn't REAL communism", is anything? Where's the delta between utopia and reality?

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They are not predictions, they are forecasts made based upon a set of assumptions.

As after months of effort you have been unable to get your head around this simple fact i think it is probably time to give up and move on to something you have more natural affinity with. 

fore·cast

  (fôr′kăst′)

tr.v. fore·cast or fore·cast·ed, fore·cast·ing, fore·casts

1. To estimate or predict in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data. See Synonyms at predict.

2. To serve as an advance indication of; foreshadow: price increases that forecast inflation.

n.

Please explain the difference between forecast and prediction.

?

 

Edited by swankyman
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Respectfully, it's kind of irrelevant though isn't it. For me at least, the point about Japan and South Korea being back on the covid naughty step is that the eradication brigade were telling us their responses were so good (and they did do bloody well tbf) that they'd eradicated it and we in Europe etc. through shyness to the zero covid mantra were doomed to endless cycles of "pick 'n choose" style lockdowns. Clearly this is not the case, black and white, happening right now, no models, no conjecture, no bs.

Now, nobody or certainly no government is perfect but your beloved endcoronavirus.org site preaches (briefly summarised) hard aggressive lockdown, close borders then test test test. Maybe Japan and South Korea slipped up on testing? But they were lauded with praise as having achieved covid nirvana, not so simple it seems. I'm open minded and not against the eradication idea but it's important if you want to get people on board to understand what went wrong with your darling luvvies in the Far East, it's important to take intellectual responsibility and not let it slip into that old Marxist trope of "ah well that wasn't REAL communism", is anything? Where's the delta between utopia and reality?

Wow Japan and Korea have really unhinged you.

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