Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
LetsBuild

Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Who is running the country?

If they are dead, they would do a better job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Health minister Nadine Dorries tests positive for Coronavirus - and she attended a Downing St reception in the last few days where Boris was present.

Does our PM and the Cabinet all have to self isolate for 2 weeks - plus possibly loads of MPs and the Royal family ?

Who is running the country?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infected-minster-nadine-dorries-had-been-in-no-10-c3sjs5kmp

 

Hoping there are are sufficient Parliamentary infections to drive a few hundreds by elections. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They will only plateau if we take equally effective action. Chinese doctor in Hubei was just on the news expressing worry at the lack of action and making the point every day without such action makes a huge difference to the numbers that will be infected.   

Yes agreed. Unless effective action is taken it will plateau only when a large enough proportion of the population have had the virus.  That will be many millions of cases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, slawek said:

It doesn't have to be perfect. 

They had China on TV a little earlier.  You need a 'green' rating on your phone to travel and to enter buildings. Scary level of control.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, slawek said:

She is quit blunt. What she said meant that 1mln German will die. 

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel told parliament Tuesday that "60 to 70%" of the German population will contract the coronavirus.
  • Dropping the figure at the outset of a parliamentary meeting, Merkel's proclamation left the room silent, according to a report from Bild, a German tabloid.

https://www.businessinsider.com/angela-merkel-estimates-coronavirus-will-hit-large-majority-german-population-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I don't see where she said a million will die.  What she said was what we know already, that without any opposing action by the target herd, a high percentage will get infected. It won't actually be that high with humans, because even with no action by government, we have the sense to take action ourselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Health Minister has COVID-19 ? Ok, so at least we've got another country to compare ourselves to in this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Hoping there are are sufficient Parliamentary infections to drive a few hundreds by elections. 

Imagine if this gets into the House of Lords.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said:

Imagine if this gets into the House of Lords.

Well if they all have to self isolate they won't be able to claim £500 a day expenses. So that will save the country a fair bit.

No doubt there will be have to be a bailout scheme to help members of the Lords make ends meet in the meantime - probably funded by special emergency tax on private renters?!..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, kzb said:

nteresting, I imagined the increased NHS capacity plan must come from re-purposing equipment and personnel.  This must mean that their previous activities will be much curtailed, as you indicate

Hope.

Preparation at my wife’s hospital consists of doing nothing. This is at one of the biggest hospitals in the Uk. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Well if they all have to self isolate they won't be able to claim £500 a day expenses. So that will save the country a fair bit.

No doubt there will be have to be a bailout scheme to help members of the Lords make ends meet in the meantime - probably funded by special emergency tax on private renters?!..

😂
 

No doubt they’ll be allowed to join by WebEx and will therefore invoice the public for top telepresence suites and still claim the £500.

Time to buy Cisco stock?

Members who haven’t been for 20 years will suddenly be joining from their care homes.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Orb said:

Would they unplug the 40 year old with good health for a 25 year old with impeccable health?

I would say yes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Seems Nadine’s 84 year old elderly mum has been staying with her and started coughing today.

Prayers for Nadine’s mum!

And as Nadine added to her tweet - keep washing those hands! Cos it worked for her....

https://mobile.twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1237517539883634688

It spreads a lot easier than being made out by the UK government. There was a peer reviewed journal article from China about spread on a bus released a few days ago, one infected man infected 13 other people, some who were sat 4.5 metres away and one who got on bus 30 mins after he got off, there was no contact between him and any of the people he infected, so they confirmed it has spread via air conditioning in bus. This was verified by CCTV on bus. They also confirmed the virus could live for days at 37C on plastic, metal, cloth etc. I'll try and find reference.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It all seems surreal, like something out of a film. I'm seeing news articles pop up on my phone and almost feel like I'm in some weird semi-dream and losing my grip on reality. You know how moments like 9/11 or other "happenings" induce that primal adrenaline, car crash feeling that's usually sustained over a few seconds or minutes initially, this could be like the same thing over several months.

It almost starts to seem a reasonable possibility I could lose one or both parents, last surviving grandparent who lives abroad. 

 Reality intrudes.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, petetong said:

It spreads a lot easier than being made out by the UK government. There was a peer reviewed journal article from China about spread on a bus released a few days ago, one infected man infected 13 other people, some who were sat 4.5 metres away and one who got on bus 30 mins after he got off, there was no contact between him and any of the people he infected, so they confirmed it has spread via air conditioning in bus. This was verified by CCTV on bus. They also confirmed the virus could live for days at 37C on plastic, metal, cloth etc. I'll try and find reference.

 

 

 Like what the feck is a London tube train going to be like? There's been images coming out of South Korea for days or even weeks of bio-suited operatives spraying down public spaces/transport. Shouldn't we be doing what the countries who've been the most successful at combating this virus have been doing? We've had ages to prepare and done jackshit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, smash said:

 Like what the feck is a London tube train going to be like? There's been images coming out of South Korea for days or even weeks of bio-suited operatives spraying down public spaces/transport. Shouldn't we be doing what the countries who've been the most successful at combating this virus have been doing? We've had ages to prepare and done jackshit.

I think we'll be in lockdown by the end of the month. Probably within a fortnight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, kzb said:

I don't see where she said a million will die.  What she said was what we know already, that without any opposing action by the target herd, a high percentage will get infected. It won't actually be that high with humans, because even with no action by government, we have the sense to take action ourselves.

Everyone knows that the death rate is 1-2%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, kzb said:

They had China on TV a little earlier.  You need a 'green' rating on your phone to travel and to enter buildings. Scary level of control.

Yeah, they had their app too. As far as I remember they used an existing payment app.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, slawek said:

Everyone knows that the death rate is 1-2%.

4,524 4,270 245 65,110

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Dead/recovered= 4524/65110 = 7% death rate. This is with massive medical intervention on the very small number of infected.

Where the ****** does 1% or 2% come from?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:
4,524 4,270 245 65,110

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Dead/recovered= 4524/65110 = 7% death rate. This is with massive medical intervention on the very small number of infected.

Where the ****** does 1% or 2% come from?

 

I think this focuses on the crux. We can't be sure. The uncertainty is the issue and why an overreaction like South Korea and Singapore is the correct reaction. The UK's underreaction is very dangerous because so much about CV is unknown. On the other hand it may just cull the elderly in the main.

Edited by Si1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 397 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.