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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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Your assuming that test, track and trace will work. It won't as the public health text books say test and trace can't work if 

(1) disease is widely spread,

(2) there are many mild or asymptomatic cases,

(3) there is pre-symptomatic transmission,

(4) we cannot identify the first index case in a given population, or how that person got infected.

The public health textbooks are out of date and need to be re-written.

China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Sudan, Ghana, Rwanda, New Zealand, Australia are all covid-free.

Each of them employed some variant of test, trace and isolate to suppress and eradicate the virus domestically. It's specious nonsense to suggest that tti doesn't work.

 

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Posted by a consultant pediatrician on a Facebook doctors group. 

I can no longer remain silent at the madness of this response to coronavirus. First do no harm is a mantra in medicine, yet the restrictions and rules regarding coronavirus are causing huge harm and suffering to millions. This is grossly out of proportion to the challenge posed by Covid. I understand how they have developed, and at the start, when we knew less about the virus, they were justified. Now, as it becomes clear they are not a brief, few week phenomenon, rather to be longer lasting I can no longer support many of the measures. 

 I am not minimising that Covid is a nasty virus that causes significant mortality and morbidity, however, it does not justify what is being done to the population in the name of medicine. For me, not even closely. As a hospital based paediatrician I see day in day out the harm, suffering and distress caused by the coronavirus restrictions. The effects of these restrictions is becoming increasingly immoral. Outside work I hear of the loneliness, the isolation, the reduction in exercise, the increases in cardiovascular risk, the mental strain, the delayed seeking of medical attention for other diseases and conditions. 

 At the start of the initial lockdown the concept was to flatten the curve to prevent overwhelming the NHS. At that time no one was saying it was reduce the area under the curve. Acute services did not fail, however the consequences of lockdown has been unprecedented harm to much of the rest of the NHS. The narrow view of COVID and Acute care being the dominant health challenge has distracted from the challenges in other sectors, look at waiting lists, delayed cancer diagnosis scans, delays to surgery, delays to vaccination, screening, reduced cancer referrals. These are in much scarier numbers than Covid, affecting many millions and will have much longer lasting impact on mortality of health of the nation. At a public health level, imagine if we spent the kinds of money we are spending on the response to COVID on tackling obesity, diabetes, smoking….. That would surely save more lives than attempts to “suppress” COVID. 

 The restrictions to society, the locking up of students, the banning of seeing loved ones/families, the systematic damage to almost all aspects of society, from hospitality venues, theatre, music, criminal justice systems, sport is unprecedented, and yet being done in the name of medicine. This is madness. Individuals rights are being severely eroded, people not allowed to exercise their judgement for fear of the law. 

 And for whom are we trying to protect. For many of us the risk of Covid is small. For all my patients the risk of COVID is less than many many other infectious diseases. I understand, for others less so, yet we are presuming their needs. If a “vulnerable” person would rather risk enjoying their life, rather than being locked away, who are we to deny them that opportunity? For patients with limited life spans, who are we to say we should shut down society for 6 months, to prevent them catching COVID, many will not be there after COVID restrictions ease. These restrictions may have been justified for a short period in spring, but for many months? Around 1000 people die a day from non covid causes, yet they are all condemned to reduced contact with others in their final months and their families without the support usually provided by wider families and local communities. 

 I know some will agree and many will disagree with these sentiments. I understand that. I understand why those who served on the front line in adult hospitals may have a different opinion to mine. However, it is that ability to have different opinions, and live with that, and to be able to make our own judgments as to risks that is part of the greatness of life and of living in the UK.

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Yeah, let's get rid of them in hospitals - doctors wearing masks is such a stupid idea, particularly surgeons - daft twits.

Or health workers. We've 66 million+ people here - why not see a few off with banning masks.

Ridiculous argument.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-wearing-surgical-masks-can-reduce-covid-19-spread-by-75-study-claims-11990381

+1

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The public health textbooks are out of date and need to be re-written.

China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Sudan, Ghana, Rwanda, New Zealand, Australia are all covid-free.

Each of them employed some variant of test, trace and isolate to suppress and eradicate the virus domestically. It's specious nonsense to suggest that tti doesn't work.

 

Not much previous exposure to SARS type viruses of this nature in NZ or Rwanda I would imagine.

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Coronavirus in South Africa: Scientists explore surprise theory for low death rate

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53998374

The theory is other coronaviruses have helped to reduce the impact of covid-19 in South Africa. 

Interesting. But does it also apply to Rwanda which is a long way from South Africa in terms of exposure? And NZ? At best this would be multi-factorial.

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Interesting. But does it also apply to Rwanda which is a long way from South Africa in terms of exposure? And NZ? At best this would be multi-factorial.

There is a huge amount we don't know and this is one of the reasons why the modelling is so infective. In this interview with neuroscientist Karl Friston he postulates this as being 'dark matter' something out there that fills in gaps as to why some countries have done better than others. 

(Note this does not let our useless government off the hook they should be tried for genecide) 

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

We’ve been comparing the UK and Germany to try to explain the comparatively low fatality rates in Germany. The answers are sometimes counterintuitive. For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter” – people who are impervious to infection, perhaps because they are geographically isolated or have some kind of natural resistance. This is like dark matter in the universe: we can’t see it, but we know it must be there to account for what we can see. Knowing it exists is useful for our preparations for any second wave, because it suggests that targeted testing of those at high risk of exposure to Covid-19 might be a better approach than non-selective testing of the whole population

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

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Concerns persist that COVID-19 vaccines could cause antibody-dependent enhancement, which can potentiate viral entry into host cells and worsen disease.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00016-w

 

Lets leave it as unproven for now, but clearly something everyone is watching for.

Also known as "enhanced immune response" or "paradoxical immune response". I mentioned this months ago (infact that link is from June).

Anyway, I'm glad it's on your radar.

 

Better off without a vaccine, allowing nature and natural immunity to take its course.

I agree.

As for vaccines, I would like to look into viral loads tailor made for patients, just the virus and via the natural route. Enough to provoke reaction > recognition of pathogen > immunity, with minimal detrimental effects (e.g. myelitis in that trial).

Vaccines and their various contents are generally one size fits all, regardless of a persons size, age, health issues or immune system status.

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As for vaccines, I would like to look into viral loads tailor made for patients, just the virus and via the natural route. Enough to provoke reaction > recognition of pathogen > immunity, with minimal detrimental effects (e.g. myelitis in that trial).

Calling for the return of variolation?

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Interesting. But does it also apply to Rwanda which is a long way from South Africa in terms of exposure? And NZ? At best this would be multi-factorial.

And why did Italy suddenly go wild ?

It looks like under the right circumstances it goes off like a mini-nuke. Maybe it’s not infected individuals but infection events that need to be managed.

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Patients die after coronavirus outbreak in Edinburgh cancer ward

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-die-coronavirus-outbreak-edinburgh-cancer-ward-a4567836.html
 

Any bed-wetter who refuses to wear a mask or follow the guidelines or advocates to let the virus rip; this is at your door. Well done you covidiots. 

 

Edited by MonsieurCopperCrutch
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There is a huge amount we don't know and this is one of the reasons why the modelling is so infective. In this interview with neuroscientist Karl Friston he postulates this as being 'dark matter' something out there that fills in gaps as to why some countries have done better than others. 

(Note this does not let our useless government off the hook they should be tried for genecide) 

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

We’ve been comparing the UK and Germany to try to explain the comparatively low fatality rates in Germany. The answers are sometimes counterintuitive. For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter” – people who are impervious to infection, perhaps because they are geographically isolated or have some kind of natural resistance. This is like dark matter in the universe: we can’t see it, but we know it must be there to account for what we can see. Knowing it exists is useful for our preparations for any second wave, because it suggests that targeted testing of those at high risk of exposure to Covid-19 might be a better approach than non-selective testing of the whole population

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Well he can be forgiven as it’s dated May and this is not his specialism anyway but FFS somebody give him a map of Europe :)

 

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And why did Italy suddenly go wild ?

It looks like under the right circumstances it goes off like a mini-nuke. Maybe it’s not infected individuals but infection events that need to be managed.

Both Lombardy and Veneto were hard hit with infections in February and March, however Lombardy suffered more deaths. 

A contributory factor to the greater deaths in Lombardy was health care reforms to encourage private hospital treatment. That left the region poorly equipped to cope with the surge in infections which overwhelmed the hospitals. 

Did a fractured health system let Lombardy down?

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Great Barrington Declaration signed by fake experts

Is "Dr Johnny Bananas" anyone on here? 🍌

That's always a risk with any online petition. However you can't ignore the attention the Great Barrington Declaration is receiving for stating there is another way rather than trashing the economy, society and non-covid healthcare through lockdowns. 

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Also known as "enhanced immune response" or "paradoxical immune response". I mentioned this months ago (infact that link is from June).

Anyway, I'm glad it's on your radar.

I agree.

As for vaccines, I would like to look into viral loads tailor made for patients, just the virus and via the natural route. Enough to provoke reaction > recognition of pathogen > immunity, with minimal detrimental effects (e.g. myelitis in that trial).

Vaccines and their various contents are generally one size fits all, regardless of a persons size, age, health issues or immune system status.

Peter's eyes seem to have been opened that the promised vaccine quick fix is highly unlikely to happen. But sensible virologists have been saying this along only to be drowned out by the big pharma shills. 

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