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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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We know the virus is spread from person to person via the air they breath particles projected from mouth and nose whilst in close proximity ..... or from touching a surface with the virus then touching eyes, nose or mouth.

So a person is tested positive and is infectious, and told to isolate away from others for fourteen days, also if the system works via track and trace others may well be told to isolate away from others for 14 days.

I do not know how that will work for all infectious people, not that they won't but they can't isolate.......no or little support, living in shared accommodation with shared bathrooms and kitchens, they say only 11% of those told to isolate or quarantine stick completely to the rules......and we are dissing people for stocking up on two weeks provisions as if they are selfish and hoarding, that is if they can buy and store it, perhaps they are planning and preparing for the worst.....forewarned is forearmed....dammed if you do dammed if you don't.;)

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Yeah maybe prepping isn't going to cut it after all and I should be looking for an exit strategy. 🤔

You were right, the UK gov is again doing too little too late.

The virus spread speed has gone up last 2 weeks. The deaths are doubling every a week, confirmed cases every around 2 weeks. At this speed we will have a few hundreds deaths per day in around 1-2 months. It is not as bad as it was in March when the virus was spreading roughly twice faster, doubling every 4-5 days. 

My guess is we will have a lockdown or an almost lockdown in a few weeks.

I am out of the UK at the moment so I am just an external observer.   

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Well of course you haven’t. Your extreme bed-wetting over being politely asked to do anything decent for your fellow human means you’ve done nothing to help contain the virus and everything to spread it. Pathetic really. Utterly pathetic in fact. 

Monsieur, most posters on this thread discuss and argue about news articles, graphs, research papers etc and not all agree but at least there's often something relevant said. All your posts involve just insulting people and accusing them of something they clearly aren't.

You're not complete unique in insults but that's all your posts involve is bowel issues, (Sigmund Freud would might find you an fascinating case study), so clearly you're very spooked by events but so are others out there, and they don't drop to this.

 

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I've probably had it, little effect. Thats the point, I care about the 5% who maybe injured and 0.5% who dies regardless of who they are or how old. Because its a lot of lost and wasted life.

 

Anyway, for laughs..

A woman watching her son's eighth-grade football game was tased and arrested for not wearing a mask while sitting in the stands with family.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mask-mother-tased-ohio-coronavirus-police-brutality-covid-b577735.html

Your stats aren't right as per normal!  

Its death rate increases with age, going form vritually nil under 65 

0.2 from 65 to 75

1 %from 75 

5% for over 80s.. 

Still pretty good odds 

 

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Agree there is differences in age structure. My point is that if lockdown was so successful (as claimed) and if we did not do lockdown 10x as many would die (as claimed), would we not expect a country that didn't do lockdown at all in any real sense, to have 10x as many deaths as a base case?

We could then look at the population pyramids and say.. well the % are different lets make an adjustment and get it down to say 7x, the policy and model are still valid. 

And yet... the deaths are comparable, if anything slightly lower in Mexico than the UK - which almost certainly is to do with the age distribution and other factor.

The lockdown works great - doesnt hold up to much scrutiny outside of small islands. Isle of Man and Jersey are absolutely fine but UK less so as a whole..

The but.. without lockdown it would have been a total disaster also doesnt hold up when you look at places that never bothered. Yes worse. But materially?

Its possible history will remember many lockdowns as ineffective, and my suspicion comes from comparisons of countries who tried different degrees of lockdown with ultimately much the same result (even allowing for demographics and geography), and our death peak was 8th April, only two weeks after official lockdown which suggests out peak infections had already passed and were already in decline.  Of course we were voluntarily locking down well before the law came in, as no doubt Mexicans were too.

Although no one uses the phrase, an early 'lockOUT' is where many countries or areas have kept CV19 at bay, but once its in its in.

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Genetic or immune defects may impair ability to fight Covid-19

Exclusive: significant proportion of severely ill people have inborn errors, study finds

A significant proportion of patients who develop life-threatening forms of Covid-19 have genetic or immunological defects that impair their ability to fight the virus, research has found.

In papers published in the journal Science, the Covid Human Genetic Effort international consortium describes two glitches in severely ill Covid-19 patients that prevent them from making a frontline immune molecule called type 1 interferon.

The patients would have carried these glitches for years before the pandemic, or in the case of the genetic errors, all their lives. The discovery may help to explain a mystery surrounding the coronavirus: why it leaves some sufferers sick or dying in intensive care, while others remain barely affected or asymptomatic.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/genetic-immune-defects-may-impair-ability-fight-covid-19?__twitter_impression=true

 

Approval of inhaled Interferon B is eagerly awaited..

Now that's Interesting..

Still don't understand why the wait.?

If its all approved, helps long covid... Will be a shame for alll the middle aged white women, who are pinnijf their next few years attention centering around long Covid. 

They can go back to being gluten free now. 

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That is only YTD, total for this year is likely to be 50-100% higher (15-20% deficit). Debt to GDP stands 102% as of now. 

With the Brexit hit next year and after, it is likely that the deficit will be 5-10% per year for 5-10 years at least. That means the debt to gdp ratio reaching 150%, if not more, in a few years. On top of that will have increased pension payouts due to an aging population.  

What wait... You mean Covid didn't kill all the pensioners then? 

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Monsieur, most posters on this thread discuss and argue about news articles, graphs, research papers etc and not all agree but at least there's often something relevant said. All your posts involve just insulting people and accusing them of something they clearly aren't.

You're not complete unique in insults but that's all your posts involve is bowel issues, (Sigmund Freud would might find you an fascinating case study), so clearly you're very spooked by events but so are others out there, and they don't drop to this.

 

There's a common trend amongst the lockdown lovers of just being flat out insulting towards those who disagree with them.

I put it down to them genuinely being afraid of catching the disease and dying, and lashing out at anyone who seems to be presenting a real threat to their wellbeing.

There is after all, only a 99.7% chance of survival if you catch it and even then most of the deaths are biased towards the very old, to the extent that the average age of COVID death is older than the average age of death.

Although, if you are clearly susceptible to mass media manipulation then perhaps you are also more susceptible to viruses?

 

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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