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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
4 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I thought you were a pro masker.

My brain can't keep up with all the crap on here. There are some people that are pro vax and anti mask and others that are pro lockdown and pro vax and others and that are pro lockdown and anti vax and others that think that 5G has something to do with it ...

The only constant seems to be that people want to moan about the government no matter what it does.

If there ever was a good example of not being able to please all of the people all of the time.

Why does everyone need to be pigeonholed.

Pro mask? Depends where and when. Same for All the other labels that people insisting on pinning on others.

As for this government.... incompetent and led by a proven liar.

 

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HOLA442
1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Why does everyone need to be pigeonholed.

Pro mask? Depends where and when. Same for All the other labels that people insisting on pinning on others.

As for this government.... incompetent and led by a proven liar.

 

Because it's pretty hard to have a debate with someone if you don't know what they stand for.

Or pointless having a debate with people on some issues because they clearly aren't rational or aren't capable of seeing things from another persons perspective.

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HOLA443
1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Air pollution is back to what it was pre-Covid which suggests that the economy is operating at pretty much full capacity.

Err that's industrial output, and has nothing to do with Chinese flu positivity rate, since that disease is so mild that you can just ignore it and keep going.

by the way

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/nih-admits-funding-gain-function-covid-experiments-gives-ecohealth-five-days-report

 

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HOLA444
16 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Because it's pretty hard to have a debate with someone if you don't know what they stand for.

Or pointless having a debate with people on some issues because they clearly aren't rational or aren't capable of seeing things from another persons perspective.

Me....

Pro Mask? If asked to, no problem.

Pro vaccine? Certainly, it should be made available to anyone who wants it.

Pro lockdown? Not really, but open to suggestion if someone can come up with something workable and not involving the police.

Pro vaccine passports? Only if there are alternatives for those who choose not to be vaccinated.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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HOLA445

A quick scan of worldometers makes it look like covid is really starting to take off in Eastern Europe.

Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Czechia, Slovakia and a number of smaller countries have high numbers of cases relative to population. Germany looks to be on the increase, the number of cases in France and Spain are still quite small.

Poland looks to be in the start of a new outbreak :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-daily-covid-cases-exceed-5000-first-time-since-may-2021-10-20/

I wonder whether this is due to the onset of cold weather.

Edit : Ukraine is kind of interesting. They have a relatively low vaccination rate (36%). Interesting their current daily death rate is almost as high as it was pre-vaccination.

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug
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HOLA446
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HOLA447
56 minutes ago, anonguest said:

You compromise if you want to.

I'm not compromising my freedom and quality of life to placate your irrational fears.

Of course I will continue on doing the right thing for my fellow man, while you continue with your selfish endeavours. My Brexit senses are tingling that you're a Tory party faithful. 

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

A quick scan of worldometers makes it look like covid is really starting to take off in Eastern Europe.

Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Czechia, Slovakia and a number of smaller countries have high numbers of cases relative to population. Germany looks to be on the increase, the number of cases in France and Spain are still quite small.

Poland looks to be in the start of a new outbreak :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-daily-covid-cases-exceed-5000-first-time-since-may-2021-10-20/

I wonder whether this is due to the onset of cold weather.

The interesting bit would be to make different group of countries by vaccination rate. Russia and Poland are low IIRC, but Austria must be high. 

In the UK, the cases are concentrated in the 0-19 group, and the 40-59 are catching up (the age group that predominantly have kids in the 0-19 group) so we can suspect the contagion is spreading from the low vaccination group to their parents. And then the parents may contaminate the 20-39 through work.

image.png.b56cb99d7c1357d67dd41ed1c0b1d54f.png

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HOLA4410
5 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

A quick scan of worldometers makes it look like covid is really starting to take off in Eastern Europe.

Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Czechia, Slovakia and a number of smaller countries have high numbers of cases relative to population. Germany looks to be on the increase, the number of cases in France and Spain are still quite small.

Poland looks to be in the start of a new outbreak :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-daily-covid-cases-exceed-5000-first-time-since-may-2021-10-20/

I wonder whether this is due to the onset of cold weather.

The cold weather doesn't help because people are indoors most of the time and viruses thrive a lot better in the cold months.......but the figures in hot Mediterranean countries were high over the summer.......now has fallen because of vaccination and mask wearing.;)

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HOLA4411
3 minutes ago, Freki said:

The interesting bit would be to make different group of countries by vaccination rate. Russia and Poland are low IIRC, but Austria must be high. 

In the UK, the cases are concentrated in the 0-19 group, and the 40-59 are catching up (the age group that predominantly have kids in the 0-19 group) so we can suspect the contagion is spreading from the low vaccination group to their parents. And then the parents may contaminate the 20-39 through work.

image.png.b56cb99d7c1357d67dd41ed1c0b1d54f.png

Yes interesting.

This is the graph for the UK and Ukraine :

image.thumb.png.e3fb1215e646ad5d123b965e9403cd84.png 

Ukraine 35% of the population vaccinated. The summer and current peaks seem to be derived from similar numbers of cases in Ukraine (15000 per day).

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HOLA4412
23 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Of course I will continue on doing the right thing for my fellow man, while you continue with your selfish endeavours. My Brexit senses are tingling that you're a Tory party faithful. 

Well, that figures since your senses are off on most other things.  IF you had even read a fraction of my past posts you would see that I wouldn't stop to urinate on any of the current government members if they burst into flames.

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HOLA4413
15 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

A quick scan of worldometers makes it look like covid is really starting to take off in Eastern Europe.

Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Czechia, Slovakia and a number of smaller countries have high numbers of cases relative to population. Germany looks to be on the increase, the number of cases in France and Spain are still quite small.

Poland looks to be in the start of a new outbreak :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-daily-covid-cases-exceed-5000-first-time-since-may-2021-10-20/

I wonder whether this is due to the onset of cold weather.

Edit : Ukraine is kind of interesting. They have a relatively low vaccination rate (36%). Interesting their current daily death rate is almost as high as it was pre-vaccination.

Romania is basically repeating Italy March 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-reports-record-number-deaths-covid-19-infections-2021-10-19/

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HOLA4414
1 hour ago, Drat said:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-three-quarters-of-under-50s-in-hospital-with-coronavirus-are-unvaccinated-figures-reveal-12398321

If you want to ignore age, the figures in that article add up to 53% of hospital admissions being non vaccinated.  So a small percentage of the country (the non vaccinated) are taking over half of the hospital places.  

It also gives figures for deaths too, and as has been repeatably pointed out, the vaccine has a very good reduction in death rate from COVID infections (somewhere near 90% the last figures I saw).

Anyway, please feel free to ignore facts, or cast aspersions on the integrity of these data so as not to infringe your own personal beliefs

I didn't cast aspersions, I made an assumption and you have provided a link. Thank you for doing so.

That link though is to a story from over a month ago and covers cases from 1st February to 29th August. The under 50s were not even offered their first vaccine until mid-April, so with all due respect I am not sure it reflects the current position.

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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416
47 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Why does everyone need to be pigeonholed.

Pro mask? Depends where and when. Same for All the other labels that people insisting on pinning on others.

As for this government.... incompetent and led by a proven liar.

 

I disagree with your vax stance, but then acknowledge you taking responsibility for yourself, but then yesterdays briefing severely tested my general pro-vaccine stance.

There pigeonhole that lol

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HOLA4417
6 minutes ago, pig said:

I disagree with your vax stance, but then acknowledge you taking responsibility for yourself, but then yesterdays briefing severely tested my general pro-vaccine stance.

There pigeonhole that lol

My personal vaccination status is private, but I gave more details in a later post.

Quote

Me....

Pro Mask? If asked to, no problem.

Pro vaccine? Certainly, it should be made available to anyone who wants it.

Pro lockdown? Not really, but open to suggestion if someone can come up with something workable and not involving the police.

Pro vaccine passports? Only if there are alternatives for those who choose not to be vaccinated.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419
3 hours ago, anonguest said:

The ends do not always justify the means. I think you have lost sight of that old nugget of wisdom.

I don't think he's lost sight of it. Based on his posts, I think he embraces it. Boots may be stomped on people's faces as much as necessary, to achieve ZeroCovid(tm).

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HOLA4420
14 minutes ago, Glenn said:

Does anyone know where to find the latest data showing Cases, hospital admissions and deaths split by age and vaccination status? It used to be in the fortnightly technical briefings but has been removed.

https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/vaccines

At the bottom right they have cases per age group if that helps any.

It's kind of unclear on how to read it, but it appears to show that the # of cases in the <20 age group is high atm relative to the others. Note the log scale.

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HOLA4421
Just now, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/vaccines

At the bottom right they have cases per age group if that helps any.

It's kind of unclear on how to read it, but it appears to show that the # of cases in the <20 age group is high atm relative to the others. Note the log scale.

And I have just now myself gone to that link - and what is the first thing I see......

wow.jpg

 

That's an awful lot of NHS staff not yet even had a first vax jab.  Now, you gotta ask yourself why are they declining to take the vaxx?  What do they know that we don't? And.....I wonder what sort of NHS staff these people are? Mostly admin/clerical? Nurses? Doctors?

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4422
28 minutes ago, Glenn said:

Does anyone know where to find the latest data showing Cases, hospital admissions and deaths split by age and vaccination status? It used to be in the fortnightly technical briefings but has been removed.

Wonder why they removed it?

The conspiracy theorist inside of me would say, the data is increasingly showing it's a pandemic of the vaccinated.

However, I wouldn't be so cynical as to actually type that idea out, because I know governments wouldn't lie, manipulate or cover up data that doesn't suit their argument.

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HOLA4423
3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

And I have just now myself gone to that link - and what is the first thing I see......

wow.jpg

 

That's an awful lot.  Now, you gotta ask yourself why are they declining to take the vaxx?  What do they know that we don't? And.....I wonder what sort of NHS staff these people are? Mostly admin/clerical? Nurses? Doctors?

What it actually shows you is that NHS staff are marginally smarter at figuring out whether the vaccine is good for them or not than the general population.

I'd also make the point that the NHS employees huge numbers of people, many of which are in relatively mundane (although still important) jobs. Just because they happen to work for the NHS doesn't make them a medical expert, or immediately boost their common sense levels.

I would also say that the average age of people working in the NHS is probably quite young. The reason is is because a lot of it is hard physical work. Young people clearly have less to benefit from taking the vaccine than older people, so their decision not to take it has more merit.

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HOLA4424
Just now, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

What it actually shows you is that NHS staff are marginally smarter at figuring out whether the vaccine is good for them or not than the general population.

I'd also make the point that the NHS employees huge numbers of people, many of which are in relatively mundane (although still important) jobs. Just because they happen to work for the NHS doesn't make them a medical expert, or immediately boost their common sense levels.

I would also say that the average age of people working in the NHS is probably quite young. The reason is is because a lot of it is hard physical work. Young people clearly have less to benefit from taking the vaccine than older people, so their decision not to take it has more merit.

Indeed. BUT they would be working around/with others who are medically qualified/knowledgeable and would be seeing/hearing the thoughts of those people.....

Not so sure about the age thesis though.....

"Currently 47 per cent of the NHS workforce is aged 45 and above, with the average age being 43 and predicted to increase."

https://healthbusinessuk.net/features/ageing-workforce-and-nhs

EDIT UPDATE:  the number vax decliners quoted would appear to be a percentage of the NHS total staff that is comparable with the vax decliner % in the wider general population.

I never realised the NHS employs over 1.3 MILLION people!  Out of a population of only 65 odd million!!!

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/nhs-workforce-statistics/july-2020

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4425
Just now, anonguest said:

Indeed. BUT they would be working around/with others who are medically qualified/knowledgeable and would be seeing/hearing the thoughts of those people.....

Well there are people on here that are medically qualified and knowledgeable and people know who they are.

I doubt very much that a single anti vax poster on here has had their viewpoint changed following posts by them.

I only know one (not on here) who got the vaccination, and that was pretty much because he had no choice in the matter, not because he actually had his mind changed.

If believe that just because someone works in the NHS they are immunised against stupidity, then I can promise you that at some point in your interaction with them you are going to be disappointed.

The NHS is big enough to be pretty much a reflection of the whole population, warts and all.

 

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