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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
18 minutes ago, rollover said:

UK government resists calls from NHS boss to bring in 'plan b'

The UK government has refused to bring back coronavirus restrictions, known as “plan b”, after cases rose to their highest level since March - despite calls from a prominent health boss to take immediate action.

Matthew Taylor called for ministers to immediately bring in plan b - and create a “plan c” of even tougher restrictions in case b does not prove to be enough.

Guardian

Good, we need to learn to live with this thing without lockdowns and face nappies. I would like to see stats of the recent demographics of who is being hospitalised, age ,race , jabbed , unjabbed, co-morbidities etc, and the same for deaths, i want to know who is getting sick and dying.

Every person i hear about dying recently on the radio sounds like they were so unwell generally a cut on the knee would finish them off. 

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HOLA442
37 minutes ago, rollover said:

UK government resists calls from NHS boss to bring in 'plan b'

The UK government has refused to bring back coronavirus restrictions, known as “plan b”, after cases rose to their highest level since March - despite calls from a prominent health boss to take immediate action.

Matthew Taylor called for ministers to immediately bring in plan b - and create a “plan c” of even tougher restrictions in case b does not prove to be enough.

Guardian

Basically if they are too late on 'plan b', which I suppose everybody is now assuming they will be, then they will need 'plan c' whatever that is.

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HOLA443
13 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Agreeing a liability waiver is pretty standard practice for vaccines.

Governments have a choice of accepting the risk or leaving it with the manufacturer. If they choose the latter the manufacturer just increases the price to cover the cost of passing the risk onto an insurer plus a mark up. 

As in many other areas the government chooses to self insure to save money.   

Great point.

People read into it that basically the vaccines must be dangerous or the firms would take responsibility, but that's totally not the case.

The reputational damage alone from a catastophically dangerous vaccine would put Pfizer or AZ out of business, even if they never actually had to compensate the victims.  If a billion people suddenly dropped dead from the Pfizer COVID vaccine would the remaining 6 billion ever buy a Pfizer product again?!

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HOLA444
7 minutes ago, pig said:

Basically if they are too late on 'plan b', which I suppose everybody is now assuming they will be, then they will need 'plan c' whatever that is.

I don't buy this at all.

Ease restrictions in the summer and early Autumn when everyone is outside in the fresh air...bring some back for the winter when everyone is cramped in office Christmas parties or in the pub.  That isn't being "too late" it's just reacting to the seasons.

I wait until it's raining before I put up my umbrella.

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HOLA445
Just now, scottbeard said:

I don't buy this at all.

Ease restrictions in the summer and early Autumn when everyone is outside in the fresh air...bring some back for the winter when everyone is cramped in office Christmas parties or in the pub.  That isn't being "too late" it's just reacting to the seasons.

I wait until it's raining before I put up my umbrella.

Lmao no you wait until the rainfall has been measured and verified across the country before you squelch your way to your dusty umbrella. Which probably got thrown out last year. :)

I remember the (last briefing?) CMO's urging to go in harder and earlier than may feel comfortable - I wondered at the time who that was directed at as its not us that take the decision....

Seems to me like the *RG have taken over - but look on the bright side as guinea pigs for the ROTW we'll be the first to find out if this works.

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HOLA446
1 hour ago, markyh said:

Good, we need to learn to live with this thing without lockdowns and face nappies. I would like to see stats of the recent demographics of who is being hospitalised, age ,race , jabbed , unjabbed, co-morbidities etc, and the same for deaths, i want to know who is getting sick and dying.

Every person i hear about dying recently on the radio sounds like they were so unwell generally a cut on the knee would finish them off. 

That's been my view all along. 

Seems to be the sort who need to carry around oxygen tanks mostly dropping dead. May be we should also ban walking upstairs. 

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HOLA449

Yep, we need statistics.

I assume that everyone who is considered to be at high risk from COVID (and we've known who they are from the start) is double or even triple-jabbed.

So, are the ones dying from that group? (I strongly suspect they are). Is the case then that the vaccines are helping to reduce hospitalisations and deaths pretty much only among that group?

Or... are the people now being hospitalised and dying those who have not been vaccinated, but do not (or didn't) consider themselves at risk? (That would be odd, the fairly young and healthy weren't dying in their droves before there was a vaccine).

Maybe it's a bit of both, I doubt it. I think it is merely the case now that COVID is going to be a disease that kills old people, just like quite a few other diseases do. Are we now going to live our lives at the mercy of various restrictions to lower the chances of old people catching COVID and dying? 

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HOLA4411
47 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

Are we now going to live our lives at the mercy of various restrictions to lower the chances of old people catching COVID and dying? 

Again, largely what I've said all along.

The problem has been massive overreaction based on TikTok videos from China and speculation of a lab leak.

The fact is it is just a Coronavirus, may be the novelty counted for a while when it was the α variant, though a death rate of 0.4% is hardly catastrophic. 

My view is that this is down to demographics and a global boomer glut.

Rather than risk death from what is actually a cold; and given they'd like to spend their HPI/final salary pension on cruises etc, plus the fact  many don't have to work to get money - they were are happy for everyone to be locked down , not realising their HPI and pensions are all backed /propped up by the real economy.

In summary whole thing is an overreaction and even the worried boomers in their mid 50s to mid 60 probably didn't  need to worry much.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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HOLA4412
29 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

Yep, we need statistics.

I assume that everyone who is considered to be at high risk from COVID (and we've known who they are from the start) is double or even triple-jabbed.

So, are the ones dying from that group? (I strongly suspect they are). Is the case then that the vaccines are helping to reduce hospitalisations and deaths pretty much only among that group?

Or... are the people now being hospitalised and dying those who have not been vaccinated, but do not (or didn't) consider themselves at risk? (That would be odd, the fairly young and healthy weren't dying in their droves before there was a vaccine).

Maybe it's a bit of both, I doubt it. I think it is merely the case now that COVID is going to be a disease that kills old people, just like quite a few other diseases do. Are we now going to live our lives at the mercy of various restrictions to lower the chances of old people catching COVID and dying? 

Have a look at the national stats - we are currently accelerating away as the 'Sick Man of Europe, and still a global disgrace. Is there something inherently different about our old/fat/undesirable/die anyway demographic ?

In terms  of health infrastructure, my understanding is that the NHS is under intense pressure again, including a backlog of patients who weren't seen during the last lockdowns. GP's are overwhelmed while being attacked by a cowardly Government, Nurses can have their lower than inflation pay rise to celebrate the new Brexit high wage economy or head back to their respective countries :)

As this all seems to be driven by the *RG could it be that defunding and sending the NHS into  meltdown is just their idiotic way of breaking it up ?

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HOLA4414
Just now, pig said:

Have a look at the national stats - we are currently accelerating away as the 'Sick Man of Europe, and still a global disgrace. Is there something inherently different about our old/fat/undesirable/die anyway demographic ?

In terms  of health infrastructure, my understanding is that the NHS is under intense pressure again, including a backlog of patients who weren't seen during the last lockdowns. GP's are overwhelmed while being attacked by a cowardly Government, Nurses can have their lower than inflation pay rise to celebrate the new Brexit high wage economy or head back to their respective countries :)

As this all seems to be driven by the *RG could it be that defunding and sending the NHS into  meltdown is just their idiotic way of breaking it up ?

I think you're making the same mistake as many - equating case numbers with actual serious sickness.  Just because there are, say, 40,000 new 'cases' on a given day doesn't mean that 40,000 people are seriously sick. I'd bet the majority are testing only because they have been told/taught that they have to because they have been in contact with someone else who has tested positive - even if that someone themsleves doesn't feel particularly bad.

Cases may be rocketing up but hospital bed numbers (and more importantly, deaths) are hardly moving by comparison.  So exercising the same sort of panic that that was justified pre-vaccine period isn't really justified.

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HOLA4415

We're in the middle of the Corona Wars, so case numbers are important to continue rallying the troops. This Invisible Enemy must be defeated by Any Means Necessary (especially if it involves giving your continual whereabouts to the government through digital ID), and even though it might mean more Boots Stomping On Your Face... it's for your own good, I hope you understand, and for your 84 year old gran, even though she's been triple vaccinated with the "Safe and Effective" stinger. Jabs away, chaps!

24F2cSy9gnsgCXG4kysA8cBxQ2T.jpg

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HOLA4416
3 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

We're in the middle of the Corona Wars, so case numbers are important to continue rallying the troops. This Invisible Enemy must be defeated by Any Means Necessary (especially if it involves giving your continual whereabouts to the government through digital ID), and even though it might mean more Boots Stomping On Your Face... it's for your own good, I hope you understand, and for your 84 year old gran, even though she's been triple vaccinated with the "Safe and Effective" stinger. Jabs away, chaps!

24F2cSy9gnsgCXG4kysA8cBxQ2T.jpg

 

“Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictatorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

Hermann Göring

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HOLA4417
2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

 

“Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictatorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

Hermann Göring

Sad, but true. History rarely repeats, but it definitely rhymes.

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HOLA4420
2 hours ago, pig said:

Have a look at the national stats - we are currently accelerating away as the 'Sick Man of Europe, and still a global disgrace. Is there something inherently different about our old/fat/undesirable/die anyway demographic ?

In terms  of health infrastructure, my understanding is that the NHS is under intense pressure again, including a backlog of patients who weren't seen during the last lockdowns. GP's are overwhelmed while being attacked by a cowardly Government, Nurses can have their lower than inflation pay rise to celebrate the new Brexit high wage economy or head back to their respective countries :)

As this all seems to be driven by the *RG could it be that defunding and sending the NHS into  meltdown is just their idiotic way of breaking it up ?

I have.

In deaths per million population which to me is the most reasonable measure, there are 15 european countries ahead of us (although mostly smaller ones). Italy and Belgium are still ahead of us, but we will probably pass them.

Another 4 countries are pretty close to us in the stats, some of which will overtake us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We haven't done great, but we are by no means the worst. We will never catch up with the likes of Hungary unless the virus mutates in some dramatic way.

Romania is currently in a much worse state than we are :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-reports-record-number-deaths-covid-19-infections-2021-10-19/

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HOLA4421
6 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I have.

In deaths per million population which to me is the most reasonable measure, there are 15 european countries ahead of us (although mostly smaller ones). Italy and Belgium are still ahead of us, but we will probably pass them.

Another 4 countries are pretty close to us in the stats, some of which will overtake us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We haven't done great, but we are by no means the worst. We will never catch up with the likes of Hungary unless the virus mutates in some dramatic way.

Romania is currently in a much worse state than we are :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-reports-record-number-deaths-covid-19-infections-2021-10-19/

Except that, as members of the EU, they enjoy greater freedom of travel than we do.

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HOLA4422
31 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I have.

In deaths per million population which to me is the most reasonable measure, there are 15 european countries ahead of us (although mostly smaller ones). Italy and Belgium are still ahead of us, but we will probably pass them.

Another 4 countries are pretty close to us in the stats, some of which will overtake us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We haven't done great, but we are by no means the worst. We will never catch up with the likes of Hungary unless the virus mutates in some dramatic way.

Romania is currently in a much worse state than we are :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-reports-record-number-deaths-covid-19-infections-2021-10-19/

 

Victor Orban's Hungary?

Orban, Bolso, Trumpy, Putin, Bozo... Oh, Superman!

How about Zero Covid China, New Zealand and Taiwan? How do they compare?

 

Take your time. I've got a minute.

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HOLA4423
1 hour ago, Will! said:

A former Register editor writes:

Whitehall is woefully unprepared for the next big crisis

Quote

Dominic Cummings was right about one thing: there are too many arts graduates running the country

Well, Arts and Humanities.  It's been like since long before CP Snow wrote about the 'The Two Cultures'.  Little has changed since then.

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4424
8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

Victor Orban's Hungary?

Orban, Bolso, Trumpy, Putin, Bozo... Oh, Superman!

How about Zero Covid China, New Zealand and Taiwan? How do they compare?

 

Take your time. I've got a minute.

I won't bother answering that because I don't see that anything I said had to do with that in the first place.

The point I was refuting was that Britain was "accelerating away as the Sick Man of Europe". It clearly isn't - although I wouldn't claim it is doing great either.

 

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HOLA4425
23 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

Victor Orban's Hungary?

Orban, Bolso, Trumpy, Putin, Bozo... Oh, Superman!

How about Zero Covid China, New Zealand and Taiwan? How do they compare?

 

Take your time. I've got a minute.

I see you're still quoting and unquestioningly believing China, their official stats and anything they say, to support your various stances/arguments.  You're a gullible fool to do so.

Edited by anonguest
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