Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Bruce Banner]

54 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Age is one issue, but it is influenced heavily by co-morbiities and of course the age distribution is heavily influenced by the fact that older people have more things wrong with them like diabetes or high blood pressure.

If you can evaluate both age and co-morbities you should be able to come up with a very well informed stat.

My guess is that a healthy 70 year old with no co-morbities isn't at huge risk of dying and would probably sit at about the 1% level.

I had thought that my risk was about 5%, a risk that I am entirely comfortable with, but reading those articles it looks that 5% would be at the top end.

[pig]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Yes - by vaccinating the vulnerable and then getting back to normal life.

As the U.K. is doing.

The Australia/NZ approach is that of a modern day King Canute: the tide can’t be held back and nor does it need to be once the population is vaccinated. 

No their approach as been to keep their citizens healthy and alive, and also to keepthe economy and public health infrastructure going.

However it does get interesting once they are vaccinated. What will they do then ?

[FallingAwake]

30 minutes ago, pig said:

No their approach as been to keep their citizens healthy and alive, and also to keepthe economy and public health infrastructure going.

However it does get interesting once they are vaccinated. What will they do then ?

I thought the answer was obvious. Endless whack-a-mole.
 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

57 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I had thought that my risk was about 5%, a risk that I am entirely comfortable with, but reading those articles it looks that 5% would be at the top end.

I forgot sex as well, which is probably as easy to factor as age (for most people anyway).

So remember that the figure for 70-79 is "approximately" for an average age of that group (75), average sex (1/2 male and 1/2 female) and average number of co-morbities, which I guess for that age group would probably be around 0.5.

Men have roughly 2x the probability of dying as women at the same age. So the women are bringing the age only risk down.

So bad news there for you. Unless you are a girl.

 

[FallingAwake]

12 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Men have roughly 2x the probability of dying as women at the same age.

Do we know why yet?

Since the world is injecting itself with a new technology, I'd like to think they've nailed exactly what coronavirus itself does to the body, and why.

[FallingAwake]

2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Eating a courgette alters your body.

Courgettes are also natural. Injecting an mRNA into your body to induce your cells to produce a spike protein... not so much.

[Riedquat]

7 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

Courgettes are also natural. Injecting an mRNA into your body to induce your cells to produce a spike protein... not so much.

Courgettes are the result of many, many years of deliberating breeding of different plant to produce varieties that don't exist naturally. Whilst I'd draw a very distinct difference between that and more direct genetic manipulation "it's natural" isn't much of an argument. Besides, they change quite significantly when you cook them.

[FallingAwake]

4 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Courgettes are the result of many, many years of deliberating breeding of different plant to produce varieties that don't exist naturally. Whilst I'd draw a very distinct difference between that and more direct genetic manipulation "it's natural" isn't much of an argument. Besides, they change quite significantly when you cook them.

So you don't think there's much of a distinction between eating a courgette, and injecting the mRNA for a spike protein into your body?

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, FallingAwake said:

So you don't think there's much of a distinction between eating a courgette, and injecting the mRNA for a spike protein into your body?

Injecting anything in to your body is quite different from eating it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if injecting liquidised courgette in to you did significantly more harm than injecting a Covid-19 vaccine.

[Confusion of VIs]

11 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

Thanks.

Yes, you've got my sort pegged. I'm impressed.

Well you ticked so many boxes, antivax, climate denier  trump supporter often couched in terms of just asking questions.

 

11 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

Well yes, except mRNA is what is used to build proteins, and proteins make up pretty much everything in our body... so mRNA is altering our bodies.

The problem is, many proteins turn out to have multiple functions, so when you mess with one (i.e. by knocking it out) it may have unintended consequences, because the protein is also being used by the body in another context. However, some of this is mitigated because many proteins have built-in redundancy, i.e. knock it out and another system or set of proteins can take over. It's like having an emergency backup system.

My simple point is, injecting mRNA into the body is a new technology, so under normal circumstances, we would be a lot more cautious about it.

Of course, I appreciate we're not living in "normal circumstances", so governments have taken a gamble in pushing the drug companies to produce a quick vaccine.

I sincerely hope the gamble pays off. For now, I'm happy to be part of the control group. That's all, really.

I see, despite appearances you are not an antivaxxer just worried about a new technology you don't understand, so you took the AZ? 

[Confusion of VIs]

8 hours ago, anonguest said:

Err. How so?  The OP showed a graph reporting 33,900 daily cases/infections.  UK population is approx. 65 million (being generously conservative).  Simple use of a calculator shows that 33,900 cases means 1 in approx. 1900 people getting an infection - which is what I wrote. So, please explain how what I wrote is mathematically inaccurate? or misleading?

OR perhaps you prefer the public to be 'scared' with larger 'THIRTY THREE THOUSAND NINE HUNDRED cases' type numbers rather than have those numbers put into any sort of perspective, such as 'only 1 in 1900 people' ?

Two what have should been very obvious errors:

•  only a minority of people actually take and report their test results
• a Covid infection lasts much longer than 1 day 

The real figure, based on random sampling is produced and made available by the ONS, why not leave the counting to them.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Confusion of VIs

[coypondboy]

3 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Delta can be dealt with. You just need to go in hard and fast against anyone not complying with the restrictions or mask wearing. It's not too late for NZ to go 'boots on the streets' zero Covid.

New Zealand had 16 new cases yesterday so 26 in 2 days certainly looks like they have the delta version in australia no wonder the new zealanders stopped travelling between the 2 pretty quick when you look at the last 7 days numbers.

[pig]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

I thought the answer was obvious. Endless whack-a-mole.
 

Once they are vaccinated, presumably that means the end of the lockdowns ? Will they consider themselves protected and  'fully' open up by getting rid of quarantine for travellers ?

[Will!]

13 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

The problem is, many proteins turn out to have multiple functions, so when you mess with one (i.e. by knocking it out) it may have unintended consequences, because the protein is also being used by the body in another context. However, some of this is mitigated because many proteins have built-in redundancy, i.e. knock it out and another system or set of proteins can take over. It's like having an emergency backup system.

mRNA doesn't 'mess with' the functions of proteins and your description of cellular biology reads like you copying something you don't understand.

If you are worried about an external agent 'messing with' protein synthesis though, then wait until you find out how viruses work!

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

So you don't think there's much of a distinction between eating a courgette, and injecting the mRNA for a spike protein into your body?

How about this,

You are completely ill informed and too lazy and arrogant to find out.

I am not giving your opinino any respect as there is no reason any sensible person should.

[pig]

2 hours ago, FallingAwake said:

So you don't think there's much of a distinction between eating a courgette, and injecting the mRNA for a spike protein into your body?

😂

Why don’t you give them both a go ?

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Courgettes are the result of many, many years of deliberating breeding of different plant to produce varieties that don't exist naturally. Whilst I'd draw a very distinct difference between that and more direct genetic manipulation "it's natural" isn't much of an argument. Besides, they change quite significantly when you cook them.

The results of which can be for trivial reasons such as pleasing the eye * (carrots used to be purple), or geared toward commercial interests for a larger yield within a shorter cropping time while you sit at home not learning your vegetables, rather than an equal but more steady harvest spread over a longer period.

Calabrase, broccoli, cabbage, kale will cross pollinate with each other.

For Courgettes you're looking at Cucumber, Marrow, Melon, Pumpkin, Squash.

Kale and Marrow wont cross breed any more than you could have children with your dog.

The nearest thing to cross pollination you are talking about in humans would be arranged marriages (between humans), like if you put broccoli and kale near each other they will cross pollinate.

Courgettes can kill you if they cross pollinate with ornamental gourds *.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[FallingAwake]

48 minutes ago, Will! said:

mRNA doesn't 'mess with' the functions of proteins and your description of cellular biology reads like you copying something you don't understand.

I didn't say it did. mRNA codes for proteins. I was just making the simple point that proteins often have multiple functions... and therefore, could the proteins coded for by the injected mRNA affect the body in unexpected ways?

It's hard to tell, since we've only been doing this for a period of months. 

But anyway, it doesn't really matter. Most people seem happy to find out for themselves.

48 minutes ago, Will! said:

If you are worried about an external agent 'messing with' protein synthesis though, then wait until you find out how viruses work!

That's not what I was worried about. Sorry if I didn't make myself clear.

Anyway, you make a good point in that... what the virus does is arguably worse.

In the end, the choice is between the chance of the virus damaging you, versus the chance of the vaccine damaging you. Most people have chosen the latter. Fair enough.

[FallingAwake]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Well you ticked so many boxes, antivax, climate denier  trump supporter often couched in terms of just asking questions.

You couldn't have written a more misrepresentative statement if you tried. Congratulations. But labels (and false ones at that) make life so much easier for you, I guess.

FYI... you missed off Brextard. That one's actually true.

Edited August 19, 2021 by FallingAwake

[Arpeggio]

23 year old dies of massive brain bleed after injecting Courgette.

 

This article basically just says "He died". Nothing about what he died of, like the brain bleed, or whether he was vaccinated for Courgette19.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/soccer/soccer-news/tributes-pour-after-former-waterford-24787825

I think once upon a time they used to say what a person died of, now it's just "they died of dying, from being dead, as dying does, because he died". Cause of death: Dying.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[FallingAwake]

Watch her Twitter account disappear in 3..2...

[Arpeggio]

22 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

You couldn't have written a more misrepresentative statement if you tried. Congratulations. But labels (and false ones at that) makes life so much easier for you, I guess.

FYI... you missed off Brextard. That one's actually true.

Courgette denier.

I found footage of the AU MP Bells Palsy

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-19/nsw-minister-victor-dominello-bells-palsy-press-conference/100389606

Similar with AU deputy health minister some months ago when they coincidently happened to get Courgette19 just after being injected with Courgette.

https://uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/australia-health-minister-hospital-vaccination-085635107.html

 

Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis Post COVID-19 Vaccination - First Reported Case

"This instance highlights an extremely rare vaccine consequence. But the benefits greatly outweigh the risks in the present circumstances, therefore there should be no hesitation among the community to seek vaccination."

I've been aware of Stevens-Johnson syndrome in the "vaccinated" since months ago. The Blood clots were non-existent > 1 in a million > 1 in 200k > 1 in 100k > 1 in 50k.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Bruce Banner]

3 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I forgot sex as well, which is probably as easy to factor as age (for most people anyway).

So remember that the figure for 70-79 is "approximately" for an average age of that group (75), average sex (1/2 male and 1/2 female) and average number of co-morbities, which I guess for that age group would probably be around 0.5.

Men have roughly 2x the probability of dying as women at the same age. So the women are bringing the age only risk down.

So bad news there for you. Unless you are a girl.

 

I'm at the bottom end of that age range so if I exercise my right to identify as a girl I'll be fine.

Seriously though, those sort of odds hardly register on my risk scale and let's face it, it I die of Covid I won't die of something worse, like cancer or dementia or locked-in syndrome, and before someone chirps up with Long Covid, I don't want to know .

[FallingAwake]

Can someone explain Table 5 (Attendance to emergency care and deaths of confirmed and provisional Delta cases in England by vaccination status (1 February 2021 to 2 August 2021)) to me?...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf

It reports on 300,000 delta cases, and under "Deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date", of the under 50's there are 71 total deaths, of which 48 were unvaccinated; for the 50's and over it reports 670 total deaths, of which 205 were unvaccinated.

Can anyone help me to understand...

(1) Why only 300,000 cases? This seems low, considering there are tens of thousands of cases per day? (The only other variant with high numbers was alpha, at 150,000 cases.) I guess the answer is, this is the number of "emergency care" cases. Still seems low.

(2) Assuming an 80% vaccination rate for the 50+ cohort, why are there so many deaths in the vaccinated? If the vaccine was good, surely this figure would be a lot lower? I mean, if we take the 670 total deaths and do an 80/20 split we'd get 536/134... so the data is definitely skewed in favour of the vaccinated, but not by a massive amount.

It seems your odds of dying are lowered, but I suspect by not as much as most people are led to believe.

(3) 670 deaths in the table. Where are the tens of thousands of other deaths? The only other variant with a significant number of cases is alpha (150,000 cases), but they're not tracking that in this table.

So why is this figure so low, compared with the 50-150 death statistics reported on by the media daily? What am I missing?

[FallingAwake]

I'm also putting this link here for reference, so we can keep track of the Technical Briefings...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201