Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

The last few people I know of getting Covid, some ill for weeks, were double jabbed, stop talking sh*ite please people have a right to question the absolute nonsense that is going on just now.

If they were that Ill even double jabbed it’s just as well that they had a bit of immunity built up beforehand from the vaccine - if they hadn’t they would likely have ended up in hospital, in ICU or worse. 

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Total fantasy thinking IMO, events like these should not be going ahead at the moment.

Why not? Good level of all-round protection, either from vaccination or youth (not perfect, but if you aim for zero risk you'll just create a thoroughly miserable world without achieving that goal - a path we're already too far down), it's hard to justify stopping anything much now.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Total fantasy thinking IMO, events like these should not be going ahead at the moment.

I don't think it's fantasy and I have no problem these types of events going ahead as long as proof of vaccination or two recent negative tests are show on entry.

[captainb]

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Total fantasy thinking IMO, events like these should not be going ahead at the moment.

So when is the moment then...?

Saying X shouldn't happen but when should it? And if your answer is never then don't be surprised that people who want to attend X go ahead and do it ASAP without your support.

Edited August 2, 2021 by captainb

[Arpeggio]

11 hours ago, Ah-so said:

To get this clear, are you asserting that the c.5000 who died within 28 days of getting a vaccination are excess deaths? If so, is there evidence to back that up? Otherwise, I really don't understand what you are getting at.

I was simply going on the basis that the underlying mortality rate in Scotland is entirely consistent with what we have seen.

Let me explain for others.

You are saying that the 5522 deaths within 28 days after injection in Scotland are normal. You haven't attempted to look any further into this, basing on your own assumptions that most of these were going to die anyway and were old people with underlying health conditions.

Over a 16 - 17 month period since March 2020 there have been 10,324 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is mentioned on the death certificate. From March 2020 this overall time period is just over twice as long as for the above 5522 death period, with March to Dec 9 months, then vaccine from Dec to July 2021 at 7 months.

Near enough prior to vaccination to within a few days, at 13th Dec there were 6092 deaths which mentioned C19, in Scotland.

The assumptions you make for the former 5522 post vaccine deaths over 7 months are known for the 6092 deaths over 9 months, in that ~95% had on average 2.6 underlying health conditions. The amount of deaths over that time period also fall within your category of being entirely consistent to what you would expect.

If you are to class deaths as almost entirely due to underlying health conditions based on assumption, this means you are acknowledging underlying health conditions.

Another example of something that could actually be referred to as part of a bigger picture, as opposed to making assumptions could be the 6 month follow-up of Pfizer vaccine:

15 deaths in vaccine group 14 in placebo group. Table S4

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.supplementary-material

1 death from "covid" in vaccine group 2 in the placebo group.

7 die of heart problems in vaccine group 2 in the placebo group.

.....from a company that have a history of fraud.

https://www.dmlawfirm.com/crimes-of-covid-vaccine-maker-pfizer-well-documented/

 

6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I've never advocated eugenics, though I do get accused of it. I am just saying we need to be more relaxed and take a more laissez-faire approach- a lot of what we do is counterproductive.

You do get accused at face value, but the devil is in the details, and nobody seems to want to touch the following with a barge pole.

Even attributing C19 as only 10% the reason for lowering life expectancy in 2020 does not make sense because an otherwise average age of death at 83.3 without C19, is higher than life expectancy (81.85) was.

A 19 year old committing suicide, for example, among other things, will play a larger part in lowering of life expectancy. I think the NHS waiting list is 5 million?

Today: Demand for ‘self-funded heart operations has SOARED’ after Covid-hit NHS waiting lists cause 5m to wait for treatment

As I once mentioned before, some school districts have had to re-open due to too many child suicides.

https://news.yahoo.com/student-suicides-drive-las-vegas-153100318.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/26/us/clark-county-school-district-covid-suicide-trnd/index.html

 

Back to the subject of the vulnerable. Acknowledgement of the vulnerable as part of normal factor in deaths is quite acceptable to Ah-So too (as above). Acknowledging underlying health problems is a start to doing something about them. How have we, but most importantly the authorities who have taken control over us, tried to address them? What has been done?

Practically Nothing

Instead it seems everyone has to be vaccinated and the vulnerable not be any less vulnerable to future "strains" or "viruses".

and add this is on top of the cake and you get quite a Cake.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Arpeggio

[pig]

2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Why not? Good level of all-round protection, either from vaccination or youth (not perfect, but if you aim for zero risk you'll just create a thoroughly miserable world without achieving that goal - a path we're already too far down), it's hard to justify stopping anything much now.

If you're going to take a risk now is the (diminishing) time to take it. Not going however, because of the risk, isn't an 'aim for zero risk' but a reasonable decision under the circumstances. Judgement needs to be looked at alongside judgement of risk.

For example we have the what must be the most widely researched vaccine in history up against one of the most studied diseases in history.

The vaccines are pretty safe - the 'missing' risks are highly likely to be only the rare effects that happen to the 1 in high 0's.  Relative to that the virus has been found to be pretty damaging.

But the perception of relative risk has been wildly distorted. Thats not just down to trolls - they are simply trying to exploit a situation where if you decided the virus was harmless from the outset then perversely theres chance you'll insist the 'most researched vaccine in history' poses a danger the entire world is either keeping secret or posting truth about on bitsh1t lol

[Arpeggio]

3 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

I don't think it's fantasy and I have no problem these types of events going ahead as long as proof of vaccination or two recent negative tests are show on entry.

Not sure about that. Shouldn't they be wearing masks too? I suppose another thing you could do is put people into camps like it says on this CDC document from a time when "vaccine passport" were just words too.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/global-covid-19/shielding-approach-humanitarian.html

"This document presents considerations from the perspective of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) for implementing the shielding approach in humanitarian settings as outlined in guidance documents focused on camps, displaced populations and low-resource settings.^1,2  .....

......High-risk individuals would be temporarily relocated to safe or “green zones” established at the household, neighborhood, camp/sector or community level depending on the context and setting.^1,2 They would have minimal contact with family members and other low-risk residents."

Edited August 2, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

Back to the subject of the vulnerable. Acknowledgement of the vulnerable as part of normal factor in deaths is quite acceptable to Ah-So too (as above). Acknowledging underlying health problems is a start to doing something about them. How have we, but most importantly the authorities who have taken control over us, tried to address them? What has been done?

Practically Nothing

Instead it seems everyone has to be vaccinated and the vulnerable not be any less vulnerable to future "strains" or "viruses".

and add this is on top of the cake and you get quite a Cake.

Lambda Covid-19 variant may be more transmissible and more resistant to vaccines

Edited August 2, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, pig said:

If you're going to take a risk now is the (diminishing) time to take it. Not going however, because of the risk, isn't an 'aim for zero risk' but a reasonable decision under the circumstances. Judgement needs to be looked at alongside judgement of risk.

For example we have the what must be the most widely researched vaccine in history up against one of the most studied diseases in history.

The vaccines are pretty safe - the 'missing' risks are highly likely to be only the rare effects that happen to the 1 in high 0's.  Relative to that the virus has been found to be pretty damaging.

But the perception of relative risk has been wildly distorted. Thats not just down to trolls - they are simply trying to exploit a situation where if you decided the virus was harmless from the outset then perversely theres chance you'll insist the 'most researched vaccine in history' poses a danger the entire world is either keeping secret or posting truth about on bitsh1t lol

I agree, but I really do think that it's been easy for people to get worked up about the vaccine risks thanks to years of over-reacting to risk - there's a massive fear of "but it might happen, and then I'll be responsible so I won't take the risk." For some reason this trumps risks due to inaction, although many are liable to over-react to both.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 hours ago, pig said:

.... if you decided the virus was harmless from the outset then perversely theres chance you'll insist the 'most researched vaccine in history' poses a danger the entire world is either keeping secret or posting truth about on bitsh1t lol

 

Well I'm pretty certain the virus is harmless to myself and my family. No one has been ill, and we've mixed and travelled as much as possible in the circumstances. It didn't stop us having the jab, even though I think it made zero difference. We even had a few known exposures, but no one got ill.

I personally think SARS-CoV-2 for me is just another coronavirus. We did travel a lot, so may be just had more exposure previously to the virus family. They are just out there, as part of nature.

My concern with all this locking up is that people are not getting exposure to other things that may suddenly turn nasty. I always look at the ancient people of South America who got wiped out by Spanish sailors bringing in diseases they hadn't seen before. 

The weird thing with SARS-CoV-2 is that it might look a bit different to the immune system, but a normal functioning immune system can deal with it easily. The issue is we seem to have developed a huge overhang of immunity weaklings - something else is causing that!!!!

[Bruce Banner]

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

[scottbeard]

27 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

I'm sure you're not alone - but equally an awful lot of people DON'T think like that.

I saw a discussion on Facebook the other day between several 30-something friends who all hope that COVID is the catalyst for people wearing masks on UK public transport forever, like a lot of people do in Asia. 

That certainly isn't what I hope.

[Bruce Banner]

11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I'm sure you're not alone - but equally an awful lot of people DON'T think like that.

I saw a discussion on Facebook the other day between several 30-something friends who all hope that COVID is the catalyst for people wearing masks on UK public transport forever, like a lot of people do in Asia. 

That certainly isn't what I hope.

Quality or quantity? In this case, I prefer quality.

[Drat]

13 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

I don't think it's fantasy and I have no problem these types of events going ahead as long as proof of vaccination or two recent negative tests are show on entry.

Yep, for entry for anyone 12+ you either had to show proof of double vaccine or proof of lateral flow test conducted on the morning of entry.  And being outside is a lot safer than being inside, especially with the high winds we had on Thursday and Friday, any aerosol would be rapidly dispersed.

It is all about risk management. Cases seem to be dropping, hospital admissions and deaths look like they have plateaued. Outside festival?  Low risk.

[Bob8]

11 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Let me explain for others.

...

Let me take a mad stab in the dark, people do not ask you to help them understand things IRL do they?

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

Yes, but I am fed up with the lack of leadership.

THe Danish Government have been more cautious that I think prudent in someways, but they did things early which minimised what was required. The Government have done similar things, more so, but later so it is less effective.

[Drat]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

What part of your life haven't you got back? If it is foreign travel that is more about other countries restrictions to UK travellers.

Plus, if you are willing to take a 10% chance of covid death to get your life back, why don't you take a 0.0002% risk of death from the vaccine to get more travel freedom to other countries?

Final point, show me which countries are now back to 100% normal by letting covid rip through them?

[pig]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

Beyond fed up  - but my worry is what happens if something even more deadly comes along ? With this set up I think we'd be in serious trouble.

I very much doubt there would be any going back to 'normal' if the virus were allowed to run its course and car crash the country. There would be years of picking bits of car off the road   Where did you get the single year figure from ?

 

[Chunketh]

15 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

The last few people I know of getting Covid, some ill for weeks, were double jabbed, stop talking sh*ite please people have a right to question the absolute nonsense that is going on just now.

You do understand why the doubled jabbed are getting it in greater numbers?

[Bruce Banner]

3 minutes ago, Drat said:

What part of your life haven't you got back? If it is foreign travel that is more about other countries restrictions to UK travellers.

Plus, if you are willing to take a 10% chance of covid death to get your life back, why don't you take a 0.0002% risk of death from the vaccine to get more travel freedom to other countries?

Final point, show me which countries are now back to 100% normal by letting covid rip through them?

Jabbed or unjabbed, it makes little difference, there are numerous restrictions and I've had enough of it. All we get is an ineffective cabinet minister telling us what to do on a daily basis, and as for BJ, I have to mute the sound every time he appears, lest I throw something through my new 85" TV screen. Hell, I'd go to 15% to make it stop!

[Bruce Banner]

21 minutes ago, pig said:

Beyond fed up  - but my worry is what happens if something even more deadly comes along ? With this set up I think we'd be in serious trouble.

I very much doubt there would be any going back to 'normal' if the virus were allowed to run its course and car crash the country. There would be years of picking bits of car off the road   Where did you get the single year figure from ?

 

Just a guess. If two years we'd be almost out of the woods.

Something more deadly? Flu with no immunity due to lockdowns?

Edit: It's too late to let it run it's course now, the damage has been done, and the country is already well and truly car crashed. 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[pig]

32 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Just a guess. If two years we'd be almost out of the woods.

Something more deadly? Flu with no immunity due to lockdowns?

Edit: It's too late to let it run it's course now, the damage has been done, and the country is already well and truly car crashed. 

I'd guess letting it rip 2-6 years + whatever the virus is doing ? Some sort of healthcare and economic collapse, social mess and slow recovery of confidence. 

Lots of scope for deadlier diseases. How about something marginally different but where mortality is is as bad in the young as the old and the vaccine turns up 5 years later ?

[Ah-so]

3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is anyone else fed-up to the back teeth with the way this government, and others, are handling Covid?

I would happily risk a 10% chance of death or serious illness in exchange for getting my life back. If Covid had happened twenty years ago it would probably have run it's course in a year.

I suppose that makes sense when you get to your age

[captainb]

5 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

I suppose that makes sense when you get to your age

Hang on.. that's the age group of this nonsense was being briefed for.

It's even been policy for over 18 months now to scare those under 40 that it is a dangerous disease for them even though all the evidence suggests it really isn't out of the ordinary compared to other risks they ordinarily face.

 

At some point a reality check needs to be in place that "saving" someone in care home aged 88 by stopping all access to the people they love for years, until they pass from something else, isn't saving them at all.

Shockingly we will all die. Some more likely in the next few years. Any risk needs to be understood and managed in that context.

Edited August 3, 2021 by captainb

[Ah-so]

2 hours ago, Drat said:

What part of your life haven't you got back? If it is foreign travel that is more about other countries restrictions to UK travellers.

Plus, if you are willing to take a 10% chance of covid death to get your life back, why don't you take a 0.0002% risk of death from the vaccine to get more travel freedom to other countries?

Final point, show me which countries are now back to 100% normal by letting covid rip through them?

He's a regular at Ministry of Sound - the closure of nightclubs was a massive change in lifestyle for him.

And you ask two excellent questions. The first in particular.