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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
10 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

 

So we are in agreement that, for some, an extended nanny state with powers to make decisions on our medical treatment would be a fate worse than death?

If it makes you feel any better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mental_Capacity_Act_2005

https://www.lawcom.gov.uk/project/mental-incapacity/

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mental-capacity-act-code-of-practice

A huge amount of medical ethical and legal work goes into avoiding what you describe.

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HOLA442
2 minutes ago, Will! said:

I know that, but there's a lot of talk about it these days and authoritarians must be resisted at all cost.

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HOLA443
11 hours ago, yelims said:

If they have private healthcare then they can pay for it, but I don’t see why society should pay for those who put said society at risk and then expect free healthcare 

I would have no problem with forfeiting treatment for C19 except for the fact that Any stress on the body provokes us to make more antibodies and have more degraded genetic material in our blood and other fluids. This will give you a positive PCR test.

Fury over 'misleading' Covid hospital figures as it's revealed half of patients only test positive AFTER admission for another illness — but NHS bosses say they're 'as busy now as they were in January'

The package inserts for PCR (and antibody) tests for coronavirus says that you may have a false positive if a person has one of about 40 conditions, such as strep throat, “viral infections” (other), autoimmune disease, cancer, pregnancy, or nursing.

If you cycle higher at 45 you'll get positive even if your are healthy. This, and the above principals used are set for this to go on forever.

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA444
1 hour ago, Chunketh said:

We should introduce a “I don’t want it” tin foil hat brigade badge. Then refuse oxygen to them.

This dumb ass tinfoil hattery needs to **** off.

Yes, ithe vaccine has a risk. ALL do. Do you take aspirin? Same clot chance

Yes, your chances of dying of COVID are higher than taking the vaccine

Yes, you are stupid 

Bravo Sir. Bravo. 👏 

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HOLA445
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HOLA446
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HOLA447
7
HOLA448
4 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

But but but MRNA must alter DNA as they both have the scientific letter NA in them. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

I see you've done your research here.

Under ordinary circumstances, the body makes mRNA from the DNA in a cell’s nucleus. The mRNA then travels out of the nucleus into the cytoplasm, where it provides instructions about which proteins to make.

mRNA vaccines send synthesized mRNA with spike protein-manufacturing instructions directly into the cytoplasm, from the outside.

The CDC argument is

  • mRNA never enters the nucleus of the cell, which is where our DNA (genetic material) is kept.
  • The cell breaks down and gets rid of the mRNA soon after it is finished using the instructions.

It is well known that RNA can be reverse transcribed into DNA. Our cells have reverse transcriptase enzymes, which convert RNA into DNA.

https://www.aaas.org/reverse-transcriptase-paradigm-busting-enzyme

Either the CDC are in central dogma or are lacking further detail as to why reverse transcriptase wont happen.

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HOLA449
2 hours ago, Will! said:

I'm not sure.

I'm a big fan of transparency, but as you suggest data without context isn't worth much and the media have always loved hyperbole.  It used to sell papers and now it brings in hits, hence the @Riedquatian criticism of world views of everything as brilliant / terrible.

I'd like to think that "Riedquatian" is now an adjective, just wish I hadn't run out of inspiration and picked a planet from an old computer game as being handy for a username :)

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
15 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Time to make good on that statement and provide evidence I said such a thing.

 

images.jpeg

So easily done.

On 20/06/2021 at 20:08, nightowl said:

To understand covid policy right now you dont need to be a mathematician but a political psychologist anyway.

Better prepared maybe and not caught flat footed?  That said, there were plenty of media reports of over loaded hospitals in January 2021, although digging a little reveals these were artifacts of the usual media hype.

On 10/07/2021 at 12:22, nightowl said:

As opposed to the fear of predictions/scenarios made by SPIm/sage that never came true.  😏

Over 4,000 Covid patients in UK critical care units in January.  I posted about it at the time.

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HOLA4412
1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

I'd like to think that "Riedquatian" is now an adjective, just wish I hadn't run out of inspiration and picked a planet from an old computer game as being handy for a username :)

Congratulations, you're an HPC meme!  Let's see if it outlasts waiting for the HPC.

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HOLA4413
50 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

You have been predicting a “wave” of death from MRNA for as long as I can remember, let me be plain

STOP PEDDLING YOUR HORSESHIT HERE, YOU AND YOUR MISINFORMED ******WITTED ILK ARE COSTING LIVES

In short, ****** off

twit

There's no real substance to this rant, but despite your erratic capslock style as though you can be taken seriously, I will prevent you from misleading anyone.

First of all. If you actually bothered to read my posts you would know that I have said the main brunt of that would be winter 2021, as I have said on more than one occasion.

Right now, for the following ⬇️, we have virtually everything noticeably at its highest since July 2020 and most higher than the prior winter peak.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1006439/NASS_Bulletin_2021_29.pdf

Document is interesting. Everything above baseline, while as I noticed a few weeks ago the baselines have been "remodelled".

ambu29.thumb.jpg.3a815d2e5fa51a32befdc02081995f79.jpg

 

This one suddenly shot up even more.

Ambuw29CRArrest.thumb.jpg.5c924e1ce3d12da5706ed6d2047599b3.jpg

 

Previously, on Feb 5th 2021 I predicted that C19 deaths would go up on March. Here is that post, about halfway down it...

 

CambV.jpg.2e800df6264be33e703c272f50718bb8.jpg

 

CambD.jpg.28ae31b8898606bda77046bc01009ead.jpg

 

 

HunV.jpg.128a57ec9528d664a216e41365e82e22.jpg

 

HunD.jpg.57d6bef547c8342f07ce4327a17d4373.jpg

 

 

NMV.jpg.962c057890e5a69be442697102b0b473.jpg

 

NMD.jpg.aeef439945184c1e4fdd5e699a239d84.jpg

 

 

MalV.jpg.391e43d905aa231d32ba534691190daf.jpg

MalD.jpg.56fb829cdd920938c6f0d9b394bc8f94.jpg

 

NamibiaV.jpg.9face637a93f90ee041c41f7de462d74.jpg

 

NamibD.jpg.10c781fe710637a54fb323d78be1a60b.jpg

 

 

 

MalD.jpg.56fb829cdd920938c6f0d9b394bc8f94.jpg

 

 

India.png.1a6c2a1bb588d0accedf8ba7382fc209.png

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HOLA4414
3 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

I would have no problem with forfeiting treatment for C19 except for the fact that Any stress on the body provokes us to make more antibodies and have more degraded genetic material in our blood and other fluids. This will give you a positive PCR test.

Fury over 'misleading' Covid hospital figures as it's revealed half of patients only test positive AFTER admission for another illness — but NHS bosses say they're 'as busy now as they were in January'

The package inserts for PCR (and antibody) tests for coronavirus says that you may have a false positive if a person has one of about 40 conditions, such as strep throat, “viral infections” (other), autoimmune disease, cancer, pregnancy, or nursing.

If you cycle higher at 45 you'll get positive even if your are healthy. This, and the above principals used are set for this to go on forever.

Yes, positive for being a middle aged twit/man in Lycra (MAMIL).

Much prefer oarsmen to cyclists.

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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416
8 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

I see you've done your research here.

....

"Looking things up".

It is very nice of you to be so generous, but looking things up and doing research is very different.

You look things up, you have done no research.

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HOLA4417
7 hours ago, Will! said:

So easily done.

Over 4,000 Covid patients in UK critical care units in January.  I posted about it at the time.

How many people were loading the NHS in previous Januarys?  Don't you remember in previous year non urgent treatments being cancelled in winter due to overloading?

Jan 2021 had I higher than recent average mortality rate, but not historically high. 

Edited by nightowl
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HOLA4418
8 hours ago, Chunketh said:

You have been predicting a “wave” of death from MRNA for as long as I can remember, let me be plain

STOP PEDDLING YOUR HORSESHIT HERE, YOU AND YOUR MISINFORMED ******WITTED ILK ARE COSTING LIVES

In short, ****** off

twit

If he annoys that much just add to the ignore list. Classic pigeon chess player.

The only interesting element is what happens once that doesn't happen.. what new mad hat conspiracy nonsense will be jumped on as fact. Vaccines was dully predictable post trump next, might be more interesting... Charles being a lizard man? As a republican id find that vaugely amusing.

Edited by captainb
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HOLA4419
17 minutes ago, captainb said:

If he annoys that much just add to the ignore list. Classic pigeon chess player.

The only interesting element is what happens once that doesn't happen.. what new mad hat conspiracy nonsense will be jumped on as fact. Vaccines was dully predictable post trump next, might be more interesting... Charles being a lizard man? As a republican id find that vaugely amusing.

I made the mistake of taking him off ignore. Now he posts a series of screenies showing cumulative vaccine rollout and cumulative deaths and somehow implying that they are related.

correlation!=causality and in this case both rising is what you would expect. People don’t suddenly become not dead or not vaccinated.

He is back on ignore

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HOLA4420
6 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

I made the mistake of taking him off ignore. Now he posts a series of screenies showing cumulative vaccine rollout and cumulative deaths and somehow implying that they are related.

correlation!=causality and in this case both rising is what you would expect. People don’t suddenly become not dead or not vaccinated.

He is back on ignore

It's not just that.. it's the cutting of the timeframes.

Ever wonder why he cuts Hungary at April.. take a look yourself.

 

 

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HOLA4421
8 minutes ago, captainb said:

It's not just that.. it's the cutting of the timeframes.

Ever wonder why he cuts Hungary at April.. take a look yourself.

 

 

You have to wonder why, its almost looking like the vaccine….works?

image.thumb.png.40218eb26af38c765bc6c4a5df3a7eb4.png

Edited by Chunketh
Clarity
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HOLA4422
3 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

You have to wonder why, its almost looking like the vaccine….works?

image.thumb.png.40218eb26af38c765bc6c4a5df3a7eb4.png

Quite. You can't condemn people who get forward looking predictions wrong based on what's known, although you can challenge their assertions and track record.

The difference here is deliberate miss representation of prior data to make a point that doesn't exist.

Classic bad faith actor which given what's at stake is pretty odious. Unlike the trump claptrap which was just stupid.

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HOLA4423
Just now, captainb said:

Quite. You can't condemn people who get forward looking predictions wrong based on what's known, although you can challenge their assertions and track record.

The difference here is deliberate miss representation of prior data to make a point that doesn't exist.

Classic bad faith actor which given what's at stake is pretty odious. Unlike the trump claptrap which was just stupid.

I missed the obvious heatwave deaths in the UK as well

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HOLA4424
53 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

You have to wonder why, its almost looking like the vaccine….works?

image.thumb.png.40218eb26af38c765bc6c4a5df3a7eb4.png

EXCEPT THAT......he compared a graph of Covid DEATHS with vaccine rollout and you are showing graph of Covid CASES.

BUT your point and criticism (re: cut off dates selected, etc) is still correct/valid

Edited by anonguest
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HOLA4425
12 minutes ago, anonguest said:

EXCEPT THAT......he compared a graph of Covid DEATHS with vaccine rollout and you are showing graph of Covid CASES.

BUT your point and criticism (re: cut off dates selected, etc) is still correct/valid

image.thumb.png.0a55d61500682fb9e58bcebd278dd23d.pngOh yeah…..sorry about that, fixed here…same picture

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