Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Ah-so]

5 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

Or argue that whilst it was effective against small pox it destroyed our natural immune system by *insert nonsensical pseudoscience* leaving us vunerable to much worse things eg If it wasn’t for the smallpox vaccine we wouldn’t have cancer.

Perhaps he'll argue that it led to Spanish flu. 

[vadst43]

How timely, a smearing article on 'anti-vaxxers'

Depressingly there are enough fools to nod along with the media's relentless onslaught

[captainb]

5 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

The incentive for the 11.9% that haven't been vaccinated at all might that other countries will allow them to visit. 

That's the key.

And actually has the perfect get out cause that another government is enforcing it.

I'll never get why they have shifted to this uni lecture and nightclub nonsense aside from incompetence. It risks a backlash for no gain assuming your aim is max vaccination

[Riedquat]

21 minutes ago, vadst43 said:

How timely, a smearing article on 'anti-vaxxers'

Depressingly there are enough fools to nod along with the media's relentless onslaught

The media have latched on to something and treated it like a religious obsession. However when it comes to vaccination sensible reality happens to be closer to that point than it is to most of the ones who really object to it. In a way it drives people away from the sensible position due to the clear almost zealous, dogmatic approach. Happens with a lot of issues.

Plus no-one likes being lectured to or patronised.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Riedquat

[Arpeggio]

56 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

It's a newspaper article not a medical paper. And I don't see why byron would have any needed to provide you with "data, official statistics, or references". 

If you want information on the smallpox vaccine, there is a huge amount available and you're ever so good at looking up stuff on the internet. But if you didn't know, smallpox is the only disease in human history to have been entirely eradicated by vaccination and prior to that killed millions. 

However, I get the feeling from your pompous tone that you are hoping to dispute the claim that the smallpox vaccine was effective against smallpox 🤣

So that's all we have. A comment with an emoji, saying very little different than the original post, but now with the added "there is no need to provide data, official statistics, or references" while lazily suggesting I find data that proves your point.

52 minutes ago, Odysseus said:

Or argue that whilst it was effective against small pox it destroyed our natural immune system by *insert nonsensical pseudoscience* leaving us vunerable to much worse things eg If it wasn’t for the smallpox vaccine we wouldn’t have cancer.

and another one making assumptions about what I would say, simultaneously talking about pseudoscience while not offering any data, official statistics, or references either.

45 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Perhaps he'll argue that it led to Spanish flu. 

That could do with a "Teeheeheee!!!" after it.

Do you, or do you not have any Data, official statistics, or references? Oh yes of course, I know. You don't need to = you win, Brainiac.

 

 

41 minutes ago, vadst43 said:

How timely, a smearing article on 'anti-vaxxers'

Depressingly there are enough fools to nod along with the media's relentless onslaught

Yes.

Nobel Prize winner Ilya Mechnikov discovered phagocytosis / white blood cells. Most bacteriologists at the time believed that white blood cells spread pathogens further throughout the body.

Can you guess what the response will be if I provide data, official statistics and references?

Edited July 26, 2021 by Arpeggio

[nightowl]

15 minutes ago, captainb said:

That's the key.

And actually has the perfect get out cause that another government is enforcing it.

I'll never get why they have shifted to this uni lecture and nightclub nonsense aside from incompetence. It risks a backlash for no gain assuming your aim is max vaccination

Incompetence of letting indian/delta enter in the first place for example and diverting blame onto younger people.

but also aiming at young people and not letting people dwell on the fact the PM and co werent going to isolate on receiving a ping, as pings are only for the little people to observe.

[captainb]

11 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Incompetence of letting indian/delta enter in the first place for example and diverting blame onto younger people.

but also aiming at young people and not letting people dwell on the fact the PM and co werent going to isolate on receiving a ping, as pings are only for the little people to observe.

The Delta varient was always going to get in. As it was always going to get into France, USA, Thailand and even blooming Australia.

The only sensible debate over the last 18 months has been between facists keeping it out through incredibly strict lockdowns and others pretending to. The issue is even if you do a Wuhan lockdown you have to at some point answer the question.. so.. when are we opening up. It isn't going away.

[Arpeggio]

No saline in this one. Just another coincidence....

Minnesota medical worker has both of her legs AMPUTATED after contracting COVID-19 just days after receiving her second vaccine dose

 

• received the second dose of her COVID-19 vaccine on February 1
• Days later, she felt chest pains and was rushed to the hospital, where she tested positive for the virus
• Doctors diagnosed her with arterial blood clots multiple inflammatory syndrome (MIS), a condition where multiple organs in the body become inflamed.  

As I have already said; Any stress on the body provokes us to make more antibodies and have more degraded genetic material in our blood and other fluids ( = positive PCR ).

PCR tests are now being phased out: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

Edited July 26, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Riedquat]

5 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

No saline in this one. Just another coincidence....

Bigger coincidence than all the vaccinated people who have not died who might well have done with the current case numbers?

[Confusion of VIs]

23 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

You are confusing expert systems with DNNs, GANNs and various other bits of innovation. Do you understand the impact of different activation functions between layers?

Yes but you missed my point. It was the marketers, salesmen and dare I say it technical sales people that "confused" them when pushing their dodgy solutions based on legacy code dressed up as whatever the flavour of the month was.  

Of course neural net itself is a complete misnomer, the simplistic layered approach had little in common with the complexity of the brain even as we understood it back then; and nothing in common with our current still only partial understanding.

Google helps map one cubic millimeter of human brain tissue that comes in at 1.4 petabytes  

[Arpeggio]

6 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Coercing youngsters, who have a vanishingly small chance of suffering serious symptoms from Covid, is in the opinion of many, a political decision.

Young children next?

UK MHRA approved for 12 - 15 year olds n' ready to jab the kiddies.

I think they are going to start with vulnerable children first, gotta protect 'em. Maybe those with learning difficulties. You know,  the ones they put a Do Not Resuscitate Order on if they have COVID.

Over on VAERS....

A few 100 children dead now.

It's all a bit taboo for the dinner party. Best talk about the new curtains.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, vadst43 said:

I've had much worse flus.

Of course you have. 

NB If you want to be a good sockie, it would help if you at least tried to pretend you have an interest in HPC  and maybe didn't turn up at the same time as your sockie friends. 

[Arpeggio]

23 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Bigger coincidence than all the vaccinated people who have not died who might well have done with the current case numbers?

If you don't like things such as the 1,250,000 adverse reactions, half of which are serious, on UK Yellow Card, D dimer tests or dead children etc. then I'm probably not the best person for you to talk to on here.

[Riedquat]

7 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

If you don't like things such as the 1,250,000 adverse reactions, half of which are serious, on UK Yellow Card, D dimer tests or dead children etc. then I'm probably not the best person for you to talk to on here.

Prefer it to all the dead people. I must be very lucky not knowing anyone personally who's had a serious reaction (non-serious ones, so bloody what?) though. Maybe it's making me hallucinate  that they're fine.

Dead children? We're not vaccinating children.

[Arpeggio]

This will probably get deleted from YouTube.

Nervous system disorders are one of the more frequent types of ADR on UK Yellow Card, at about quarter of a million. Look it up.

 

19 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Prefer it to all the dead people. I must be very lucky not knowing anyone personally who's had a serious reaction (non-serious ones, so bloody what?) though. Maybe it's making me hallucinate  that they're fine.

Well lucky you.

How many people who have been vaccinated do you think would have died if not? and is this something you are prepared to get into a debate over with actual figures, official government figures?

 

19 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Dead children? We're not vaccinating children.

I said the MHRA have approved vaccines for children ages 12 - 15 (look it up), are looking to start with the vulnerable (some of whom conversely had DNR orders if they had C19) and that so far in the US a few 100 C19 jabbed children are dead on the VAERS system.

If you read my post you would notice that is exactly what I said. Usually if the MHRA approve vaccines for children ages 12 - 15 this is because at some point there might just be an intention to jab them, wouldn't you think?

Edited July 26, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Riedquat]

35 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

How many people who have been vaccinated do you think would have died if not? and is this something you are prepared to get into a debate over with actual figures, official government figures?

Quite a lot? Significant differences in age distribution this time around between over and under 60s just in cases, which will be largely down to vaccination. Of course they might've avoided deaths by going back to full-on house arrest forever had we not got a vaccine. So with overall fewer old people getting cases in the first place and a much better cases to deaths ratio, quite a lot. There are other factors at play of course but it's hard to make a plausible case that they could be responsible for a significant part of the difference.

How many do you think?

[byron78]

3 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

There appear to be, quite literally, no data, official statistics, or references in that article regarding the Small pox vaccine.

Please provide it.

The 1863 Vax Act?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Another one gone before his time: 😢

 

Self-confessed vaccine sceptic, 34, who said 'if he could turn back time he would' dies from Covid

• A self-confessed vaccine sceptic until he caught Covid has died aged 34
• Matthew Keenan 'wished he had his jab' after he was hospitalised at Bradford 
• Senior medic shared photo of him in oxygen mask and hooked up to a ventilator
• Tragically, it was confirmed today that Mr Keenan had died with the virus 

A self-confessed vaccine sceptic who said 'if he could turn back time he would' after he was admitted to hospital earlier this month with Covid has died with the virus at the age of 34. 
 

 

 

[robmatic]

6 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

 

PCR tests are now being phased out: https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

 

You will literally post any old nonsense. Did you even read the link? The link you have posted does not say 'PCR tests are now being phased out'. It says that the specific PCR test that is called CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel is being phased out. This is one of approximately 250 different molecular diagnostic tests authorised by the FDA and one of two made by the CDC. The CDC is formally withdrawing this one from use because it replaced it in July 2020 with a more comprehensive test called Influenza SARS-CoV-2 (Flu SC2) Multiplex Assay. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

6 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Another one gone before his time: 😢

 

Self-confessed vaccine sceptic, 34, who said 'if he could turn back time he would' dies from Covid

• A self-confessed vaccine sceptic until he caught Covid has died aged 34
• Matthew Keenan 'wished he had his jab' after he was hospitalised at Bradford 
• Senior medic shared photo of him in oxygen mask and hooked up to a ventilator
• Tragically, it was confirmed today that Mr Keenan had died with the virus 

A self-confessed vaccine sceptic who said 'if he could turn back time he would' after he was admitted to hospital earlier this month with Covid has died with the virus at the age of 34. 

 

Mr Keenan (from Bradford) may have eaten a few too many Keema Naan.

BTW, why did he die with the virus and not of the virus? 

I'm not actually a vaccine skeptic, but i don't like the coercion. I do feel these stories are placed to scare people into compliance. They really should bring back straight laced, plum English, Public Information films. Or perhaps those cartoon ones from the late 70s early 80s. 

"Charlie says get your jab, or that Mr Savile will come and jab you with something else."

Edited July 27, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[nightowl]

9 hours ago, captainb said:

The issue is even if you do a Wuhan lockdown you have to at some point answer the question.. so.. when are we opening up. It isn't going away.

Back to "and then what?" point.  Everyone eventually ends in the same place irrespective of severity of lockdown.

[Ah-so]

9 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

So that's all we have. A comment with an emoji, saying very little different than the original post, but now with the added "there is no need to provide data, official statistics, or references" while lazily suggesting I find data that proves your point.

and another one making assumptions about what I would say, simultaneously talking about pseudoscience while not offering any data, official statistics, or references either.

That could do with a "Teeheeheee!!!" after it.

Do you, or do you not have any Data, official statistics, or references? Oh yes of course, I know. You don't need to = you win, Brainiac.

I wasn't the original poster who linked an article about 19th century anti-vaxxers, which you bizarrely thought should contain all the data around the eradication of smallpox, and which you then self-importantly demanded that he should produce. And it was not his job to provide the evidence either - it is an accepted fact that it led to the eradication of smallpox - if you want to dispute that , be my guest, but you are now straying into an equivalent realm of "flat earth science". That isn't how science works - if you want to dispute the medical consensus about the successful eradication of smallpox, be my guest - and if successful, you will of course earn your Nobel prize.

For a man who spends half his life trawling the bowels of internet for links about vaccines, you are suddenly incapable yourself of looking up information about a vaccine that has been successfully administered for 200 years! But if you really are at a complete loss, and are suddenly confounded by the internet, the Wiki page on smallpox has over 200 links for you to work through. Enjoy.

[skinnylattej]

17 hours ago, Drat said:

Trouble is, restriction after restriction is just going to make people dig their heals in.  Might be more effective, rather than penalise the unvaccinated too much, to offer the vaccinated a bonus of some sort (on top of the intrinsic bonus of being less likely to die face down on a hospital bed with a tube up their ****)

If BJ wants the young to be vaccinated, why doesn't he offer to write off 30% of their student debt?

The GVMT will pick up the tab eventually.

[anonguest]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Mr Keenan (from Bradford) may have eaten a few too many Keema Naan.

BTW, why did he die with the virus and not of the virus? 

I'm not actually a vaccine skeptic, but i don't like the coercion. I do feel these stories are placed to scare people into compliance. They really should bring back straight laced, plum English, Public Information films. Or perhaps those cartoon ones from the late 70s early 80s. 

"Charlie says get your jab, or that Mr Savile will come and jab you with something else."

Indeed.  I have noticed a lot of these articles which, IF one takes the time to do a little bit of internet digging around, can often reveal little extra details that the newspaper reports curiously omit - such as huge weight or some serious existing medical condition.  Not saying that was the case with this unfortunate chap, but I have spotted this on a fair few occasions.

And IF he really was of nominally ordinary health then, sadly, he really was a rare case.  A 'statistical outlier' in the same sense that we occasionally see the odd report of 80+ year olds still smoking a box of fags and drinking a 1/2 bottle of scotch a day all their adult life.

As I wrote recently, and welcomed others to check my maths/methodology/etc, a check of ONS data reveals that up till around age 40 then, in the UK, one has comparable or greater risk of dying in an RTA than from Covid.

Up to around age 25 and risk of dying through murder is greater than from Covid!

Edited July 27, 2021 by anonguest

[Riedquat]

12 hours ago, Ah-so said:

If you want information on the smallpox vaccine, there is a huge amount available and you're ever so good at looking up stuff on the internet. But if you didn't know, smallpox is the only disease in human history to have been entirely eradicated by vaccination and prior to that killed millions.

Pedantic I know but it's the only human disease to have been eradicated. Rinderpest (a cattle disease) has been too.