Confusion of VIs Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 hours ago, nightowl said: Don't forget is 1% of tests performed not those who report a positive result. As testing levels go up and the prevelance goes down (ie like right now) this FP 'error' becomes increasingly significant. In a bizzare twist, even if covid suddenly totally vanished there would still be +cases reported due to FP....hence your zero covid utopia would never be achieved😲 Don't forget that just because you don't know how to handle false positives doesn't mean that other people don't. In this case anyone with a maths GCSE would, or at least should, know how to discern the true positive rate. I think we can safely assume that the PhD statisticians employed by the ONS will be part of this group. This contains all you need to know Maths is Fun: False Positives and Negatives Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnylattej Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 4 hours ago, captainb said: Shhh don't tell them there's more to life than surviving as long as possible protected from "risk". Ye old.. Ultimate lack of risk chamber buisness will suffer. Safetyism will be the death of the West. So much of pleasure involves taking risk, and much of growing up requires the development of skills to assess the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: Unless you have evidence that the ONS has got it wrong it is not flawed. 28 days has been selected as the date that for statistical purposes best tracks the overall number of deaths from covid. It is not intended to say whether an individual died from covid. It is regularly reviewed and so far has been confirmed as accurate enough to continue to be used as a national statistic. Yea but no. It does not whatsoever track the deaths from Covid. It tracks the deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It’s a flawed statistic. It would be simple to report deaths attributable to Covid per the death certificate or doctor’s judgement. As with everything these days they go with the dummies guide version. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 COVID-19: Shared and overcrowded housing - reducing the risk of infection This guidance explains the additional steps you should consider to reduce the risk of catching or passing on COVID-19 in the home. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-shared-and-overcrowded-housing-reducing-the-risk-of-infection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, satsuma said: Yea but no. It does not whatsoever track the deaths from Covid. It tracks the deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It’s a flawed statistic. It would be simple to report deaths attributable to Covid per the death certificate or doctor’s judgement. As with everything these days they go with the dummies guide version. It's only flawed if there's good reason to believe that it's inaccurate, which there isn't. It's not 100% accurate of course, but neither will be what a doctor writes down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Just now, Riedquat said: It's only flawed if there's good reason to believe that it's inaccurate, which there isn't. It's not 100% accurate of course, but neither will be what a doctor writes down. It’s a load of old codswallop, and they wonder why the stats show older people die from Covid, it’s because they are at the end of their life. They might as well report the number of people that died within 28 days of asking if they had baked beans for tea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robmatic Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 minute ago, satsuma said: It’s a load of old codswallop, and they wonder why the stats show older people die from Covid, it’s because they are at the end of their life. They might as well report the number of people that died within 28 days of asking if they had baked beans for tea. Quite an interesting coincidence that excess mortality shoots up when covid cases are rampant then goes down when covid cases reduce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Don't forget that just because you don't know how to handle false positives doesn't mean that other people don't. In this case anyone with a maths GCSE would, or at least should, know how to discern the true positive rate. I think we can safely assume that the PhD statisticians employed by the ONS will be part of this group. This contains all you need to know Maths is Fun: False Positives and Negatives You would think so.. But the same PhD carrying brigade managed to come up with a system that never allowed you to recover from Covid. Which was remarkable in its nonsensical nature. They didn't change of their own accord remember last summer, was only when brought up by others and then the press then finally MPs when they accepted that including anyone who had ever tested positive from Covid then died as a covid death was nonsense. Not saying they are not adjusting for false positives, but after that debacle I wouldn't be surprised if they were not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, satsuma said: Yea but no. It does not whatsoever track the deaths from Covid. It tracks the deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It’s a flawed statistic. It would be simple to report deaths attributable to Covid per the death certificate or doctor’s judgement. As with everything these days they go with the dummies guide version. It is a statistic derived from all of the available information, including death certificate information. What you are suggesting would actually be a less accurate dummies version. As long as you realise it doesn't say anything about an individual case there isn't really a problem; in any case there never will be a 100% accurate count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: Don't forget that just because you don't know how to handle false positives doesn't mean that other people don't. In this case anyone with a maths GCSE would, or at least should, know how to discern the true positive rate. I think we can safely assume that the PhD statisticians employed by the ONS will be part of this group. This contains all you need to know Maths is Fun: False Positives and Negatives I'm sure the ONS have people understand it as well as many others of us, but people here claim the FP is to be ignored not realising how the % applies and it's affects. Perhaps you can explain it to everyone with your superiority? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, satsuma said: It’s a load of old codswallop, and they wonder why the stats show older people die from Covid, it’s because they are at the end of their life. They might as well report the number of people that died within 28 days of asking if they had baked beans for tea. Or it could be that there's a link between a test for a potentially fatal disease and actually dying from it. What do you think the death rate is for people within 28 days of a negative test? If your hypothesis that it's codswallop is correct then the numbers should be very similar. Whilst older people are more likely to die in the vast majority of cases the life expectancy will still be more than 28 days, even for those with pretty severe conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 minute ago, nightowl said: I'm sure the ONS have people understand it as well as many others of us, but people here claim the FP is to be ignored not realising how the % applies and it's affects. Perhaps you can explain it to everyone with your superiority? You sound a bit sulky. Read the link and maybe you to can join the superior people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, satsuma said: Yea but no. It does not whatsoever track the deaths from Covid. It tracks the deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It’s a flawed statistic. It would be simple to report deaths attributable to Covid per the death certificate or doctor’s judgement. As with everything these days they go with the dummies guide version. No counting methodology is 100% accurate. Death certificates and coroners' reports often take days to appear. A rolling count based on that method would significantly underestimate the true count. PHE's 28 day count is statistically robust. Most people who die in hospital from Covid do so within 14 days of admission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Or it could be that there's a link between a test for a potentially fatal disease and actually dying from it. What do you think the death rate is for people within 28 days of a negative test? If your hypothesis that it's codswallop is correct then the numbers should be very similar. Whilst older people are more likely to die in the vast majority of cases the life expectancy will still be more than 28 days, even for those with pretty severe conditions. Perhaps they should report the deaths within 28 days of a negative test. That would be more interesting than deaths within 28 days of the vaccine as some suggested. All I am saying is the numbers need to be considered carefully. Especially as many of us are sat at home with no income and/or dwindling mental health. Edited March 11, 2021 by satsuma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, captainb said: You would think so.. But the same PhD carrying brigade managed to come up with a system that never allowed you to recover from Covid. Which was remarkable in its nonsensical nature. They didn't change of their own accord remember last summer, was only when brought up by others and then the press then finally MPs when they accepted that including anyone who had ever tested positive from Covid then died as a covid death was nonsense. Not saying they are not adjusting for false positives, but after that debacle I wouldn't be surprised if they were not. I suspect people did know about the anomaly even if a only a few, but managing the beaurocracy to change it from the bottom rather than the top, might be something else! FPs are politically sensitive as it partly says the test aren't 'accurate' and people might then ignore the all results en masse when prevelance is high when FP is a small issue. The flow test used in schools has its critics, and gov (I think) said a PCR can't overule a questionable positive flow result which is a political issue as the superior PCR should overule it by rights. This may have changed this week but there is a sense the accuracy of any test cannot be questioned for reason above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, robmatic said: Quite an interesting coincidence that excess mortality shoots up when covid cases are rampant then goes down when covid cases reduce. Alternatively, the NHS is murdering old people to make it look like a deadly pandemic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: You sound a bit sulky. Read the link and maybe you to can join the superior people. Youre certainly the superior ivy League of HPCer's for personal insults in lieu of actual reasoned arguments. You repeatably behave like this. You can't be surprised if someone does it back to you after you keep doing it. Poor show. D minus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, nightowl said: Youre certainly the superior ivy League of HPCer's for personal insults in lieu of actual reasoned arguments. You repeatably behave like this. You can't be surprised if someone does it back to you after you keep doing it. Poor show. D minus. 😁😁😁 You are certainly the most superior snowflake on HPC, definitely an A+ in that department. Unfortunately you can only dream of being able to achieve a D minus in recognising a reasoned argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 It looks like we may be able to go to France earlier than I thought, albeit with a negative Covid test, if the UK government lets us out that is. Covid-19 pandemic: France eases travel for UK and six other countries - BBC News Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buzzardo2 Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: It looks like we may be able to go to France earlier than I thought, albeit with a negative Covid test, if the UK government lets us out that is. Covid-19 pandemic: France eases travel for UK and six other countries - BBC News Excellent news @Bruce Banner and thanks for sharing a ray of light. See you over there soon - I'll be sailing as soon as restrictions are lifted; how will you be getting there?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Buzzardo2 said: Excellent news @Bruce Banner and thanks for sharing a ray of light. See you over there soon - I'll be sailing as soon as restrictions are lifted; how will you be getting there?! Car ferry, or possibly Eurotunnel if ferries not running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: 😁😁😁 You are certainly the most superior snowflake on HPC, definitely an A+ in that department. Unfortunately you can only dream of being able to achieve a D minus in recognising a reasoned argument. Remember that I merely posted an observation about FPs varying relevance and you just went in with a personal insult based on GCSEs. You made no effort to discuss or counter that observation. 😆😆 Edited March 11, 2021 by nightowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 6 hours ago, captainb said: Good news. Whats happened with synaregian? Have they gone to full scale trials etc? Any results? Synairgen are in a P3 trial, no idea if it will be successful. given up on them. Results in a few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Now 6 EU countries have suspended Astra Zenica due to blood clot fears... https://www.gazetteseries.co.uk/news/national/uk-today/19152736.six-european-countries-suspend-use-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-blood-clot-fears/ Does this look like what these professionals in the field, are trying to warn about in this letter? As this letter has now been made public I assume no reply was received from the EMA within the 7 days? https://doctors4covidethics.medium.com/urgent-open-letter-from-doctors-and-scientists-to-the-european-medicines-agency-regarding-covid-19-f6e17c311595 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 (edited) 10 hours ago, zugzwang said: Tiffany Dover's friends, family, work colleagues, local police all say she's alive and well. 10 hours ago, zugzwang said: Elvis' friends, family, work colleagues, local police all say he's alive and well. It's OK we know, we know. Edited March 11, 2021 by Arpeggio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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