Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Longtermrenter]

13 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The hospitals have jerry rigged additional oxygen supply lines, running on dozens of large commercial cannisters per day. This has let then carry on adding patients as fast as they can find staff to support them.

Because Covid patients are seriously ill with high dependency/critical care requirements two or three general wards have to be closed to open each extra Covid ward.   staff are the limiting factor.

The stories about recruitment paperwork/bureaucracy limiting the vaccine was a piece of orchestrated BS pushed out via the Tory friendly press to cover up the fact that the promised 100m pre purchased vaccine doses did not exist. One of my daughters has signed up to administer the vaccine, I asked her about the recruitment process and she said "just the normal stuff". 

The additional training required was the NHS e-learning mandatory training. I recently completed it in about 5 or 6 hours over a few days as I thought it would help with a low level NHS job I was going for: it is free for anyone to do. If you are a returning professional I would imagine it would be even quicker. It is pretty simple and easy for anyone to complete with a modicum of intelligence. I did laugh when I heard the news reports as it was at the same time I was doing it.

[Longtermrenter]

13 hours ago, Dr Doom said:

Are they any stats or graphs comparing no. of people on a ventilator vs this time last year ? I've been searching but can't seem to find anything.

It is mor ethan the 1st peak: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[anonguest]

Another slight policy change?

https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-government-scraps-antibody-tests-at-nhs-sites/?utm_content=buffer490a7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[The Spaniard]

More clarity on the PCR test from Dr Sam Bailey:

 

[moonriver]

40 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Another slight policy change?

https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-government-scraps-antibody-tests-at-nhs-sites/?utm_content=buffer490a7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Quote

from the link.....Scientists yesterday suggested increased antibody testing could prevent vaccines being wasted on those with a substantial level of natural immunity. 

“We now know that most of those who have had the virus and developed antibodies are protected from reinfection. Immunity gives you a similar effect to the Pfizer vaccine, and much better effect than the Astrazeneca,” said Professor Susan Hopkins, senior medical advisor at PHE.

So another case of the government not listening to the scientists?

Why inject on a mass level when not necessary, with this high natural immunity from previous infections now being shown for the whole period studied so far? (currently up to 8 months)

And it looks like, as usual, lots of money has been wasted.

 

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, moonriver said:

Why inject on a mass level when not necessary, with this high natural immunity from previous infections now being shown for the whole period studied so far? (currently up to 8 months)

If they get the vaccine pass rolled out and immunity passport for everyone else. For the next pandemic which they are already talking about as "the big one" they will lockdown instantly, less people will catch it and they will aim to get more people vaccinated before they are allowed back to new normal. By then most if not all people will be on Universal Basic Income. Censorship will be further implemented by then too. Here's an example of Jack Dorsey talk about censoring multiple accounts into the year: https://rumble.com/vctqwj-bombshell-twitter-ceo-caught-detailing-further-political-censorship.html

Eventually vaccination and vaccination passports will be compulsory for everyone, it doesn't happen over night. There won't be any cash eventually, it will all be digital fiat currency. Lockdowns will also be used as the pretext for getting rid of cash due to transactions going down as a result of.

Next week is going to be deaths galore by the way as part of the current push towards the long term Davos Great Reset.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Arpeggio

[NobodyInParticular]

3 hours ago, moonriver said:

Why inject on a mass level when not necessary, with this high natural immunity from previous infections now being shown for the whole period studied so far? (currently up to 8 months)

Testing isn't perfect, so a false positive means you end up not vaccinating someone who needs it, and maybe give them a false sense of security. If only one in twenty have had it then testing twenty to not give the vaccine to one (neglecting false positives for the moment) might not actually be cost effective unless the test can be done while you wait. If you excluded two in twenty, maybe then it makes sense. It might just be acceptance that the tests have improved, and level of infection increased that eiyh more information on how long immunity lasts it has now become worth testing first. 

Quote

And it looks like, as usual, lots of money has been wasted.

Not clear at all in this case. Plenty of other money wasted, for sure. 

[Arpeggio]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484

[nightowl]

5 hours ago, The Spaniard said:

More clarity on the PCR test from Dr Sam Bailey:

 

A couple of purely anecdotal but recent PCR experiences from my circle:

One couple feeling bit ill at the same time, although not obvious CV19 symptoms both have a test. One positive and one negative...so one test must be a wrong result.

Another their child is sent home from school (with non-covid symptoms) but parents still have tests all the same despite a complete lack of symptoms. Both parents have message they are positive...but then a few days later another message saying both are negative.

They certainly arent accurate by any measure.

Another wheez Mrs Nightowl has spotted is where some of her colleages all put their phones in the lockers at work with the bluetooth and serco app left running all day.  All it takes is one person to get a CV19+ result, and they all get 10 days off work because their phones didnt social distance!

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

9 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Boris said "F**k Business".................

......And he has!

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 hours ago, moonriver said:

So another case of the government not listening to the scientists?

Why inject on a mass level when not necessary, with this high natural immunity from previous infections now being shown for the whole period studied so far? (currently up to 8 months)

And it looks like, as usual, lots of money has been wasted.

 

This is why lockdown is flawed.

If immunity last for 5 months, the population benefits from frequent minor re-infection as it maintains immunity, including newer strains.

Right now we have the homes/hospitals creating new strains due to their residents/patients not completely killing off the virus in their bodies allowing mutations adapted to the human immune system to evolve. The same type of process as antibiotic resistance.

The lockdown thus becomes self perpetuating.

 

[Will!]

The good news:

Hospital admissions are starting to slow.

The bad news:

Snow!

 

[satsuma]

10 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This is why lockdown is flawed.

If immunity last for 5 months, the population benefits from frequent minor re-infection as it maintains immunity, including newer strains.

Right now we have the homes/hospitals creating new strains due to their residents/patients not completely killing off the virus in their bodies allowing mutations adapted to the human immune system to evolve. The same type of process as antibiotic resistance.

The lockdown thus becomes self perpetuating.

 

It’s good to have an epidemiologist in house to clear things things up

[zugzwang]

14 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This is why lockdown is flawed.

If immunity last for 5 months, the population benefits from frequent minor re-infection as it maintains immunity, including newer strains.

Right now we have the homes/hospitals creating new strains due to their residents/patients not completely killing off the virus in their bodies allowing mutations adapted to the human immune system to evolve. The same type of process as antibiotic resistance.

The lockdown thus becomes self perpetuating.

 

There are no population benefits without herd immunity You can't reach herd immunity without a vaccination program. You can't vaccinate safely w/o lockdown.

Zero Covid is the empirically correct approach to SARS-CoV-2 - a 4-6 week hard lockdown with quarantine at the borders and locally supervised tti - both from a healthcare perspective and an economic perspective.

Even in an intellectual backwater like the UK people are beginning to take notice!

 

https://zerocovid.uk/2020/12/19/conference-16-jan-2021/

16 January 2021 – Online conference: Organising for Zero Covid

19 December 2020 by zerocovid

2021 must be the year of #ZeroCovid

England’s four-tier system is a failure. Test and Trace is not doing its job. The Westminster government battled to keep schools open against educators and medical experts’ advice, and only the opposition of teaching unions was able to stop it. There is no plan to get us out of this cycle of restrictions. In Scotland too, despite Holyrood steering a different course at times, infection rates are rising rapidly.

 

What’s the alternative?

Zero Covid is the alternative. It’s a strategy to eliminate the virus, which means a working Test and Trace system, financial and material support for people to enable them to isolate, and ensuring all workplaces which are open are certified Covid-Safe. Restrictions on our lives can be lifted once these elements are in place and as new cases drop off to a level which can be managed by public health teams.

 

 

[nightowl]

24 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

There are no population benefits without herd immunity You can't reach herd immunity without a vaccination program. You can't vaccinate safely w/o lockdown.

Zero Covid is the empirically correct approach to SARS-CoV-2 - a 4-6 week hard lockdown with quarantine at the borders and locally supervised tti - both from a healthcare perspective and an economic perspective.

Even in an intellectual backwater like the UK people are beginning to take notice!

 

https://zerocovid.uk/2020/12/19/conference-16-jan-2021/

16 January 2021 – Online conference: Organising for Zero Covid

19 December 2020 by zerocovid

2021 must be the year of #ZeroCovid

England’s four-tier system is a failure. Test and Trace is not doing its job. The Westminster government battled to keep schools open against educators and medical experts’ advice, and only the opposition of teaching unions was able to stop it. There is no plan to get us out of this cycle of restrictions. In Scotland too, despite Holyrood steering a different course at times, infection rates are rising rapidly.

 

What’s the alternative?

Zero Covid is the alternative. It’s a strategy to eliminate the virus, which means a working Test and Trace system, financial and material support for people to enable them to isolate, and ensuring all workplaces which are open are certified Covid-Safe. Restrictions on our lives can be lifted once these elements are in place and as new cases drop off to a level which can be managed by public health teams.

 

 

 Attending the conference:

NEU Union. Black Activist Rising against cuts. Independent Sage (not even the real one) etc etc and Diane Abbot.

Its nothing to do with with CV19 but a political group think session 😆 😆 😆  

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

2021 must be the year of #ZeroCovid

England’s four-tier system is a failure. Test and Trace is not doing its job. The Westminster government battled to keep schools open against educators and medical experts’ advice, and only the opposition of teaching unions was able to stop it. 

 

What’s the alternative?

Zero Covid is the alternative. It’s a strategy to eliminate the virus, which means a working Test and Trace system, financial and material support for people to enable them to isolate, and ensuring all workplaces which are open are certified Covid-Safe. Restrictions on our lives can be lifted once these elements are in place and as new cases drop off to a level which can be managed by public health teams.

 

I think we need to follow the RHS's advice on dealing with Honey Fungus:

https://www.rhs.org.uk/advice/profile?pid=1015

 

[Arpeggio]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80

Also Germany to build a camp for COVID-dissidents apparently.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

18 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80

Also Germany to build a camp for COVID-dissidents apparently.

Good job we are not vaccinating vulnerable over 80s first!

[anonguest]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

 

Also Germany to build a camp for COVID-dissidents apparently.

What?  Link please

[MARTINX9]

Apparently today marked a key milestone as 2 million people have now died globally from Covid - well subject to the different definitions each country uses to determine this death toll.

Newsnight on BBC2 just did a piece saying how hard this number was to visualise and showed us all a picture of what was supposed to be 2 million stars so all those people could be remembered.

Even harder of course to visualise the 70 million people who have died globally from other causes in the last year including over half a million people in the UK - none of whom clearly deserve remembering with a star or will even merit a mention by the media. 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by MARTINX9

[Arpeggio]

9 minutes ago, anonguest said:

What?  Link please

Don't know if true https://t.me/rtintl/714

At a glance the source's stories reflect external sources from it https://t.me/s/rtintl

Edited January 15, 2021 by Arpeggio

[anonguest]

Just now, MARTINX9 said:

Apparently today marked a key milestone as 2 million people have now died globally from Covid - well subject to the different definitions each country uses to determine this death toll.

Newsnight on BBC2 just did a piece saying how hard this number was to visualise and showed us all a picture of what was supposed to be 2 million stars so all those people could be remembered.

Even harder of course to visualise the 70 million people who have died globally from other causes in the last year including over half a million people in the UK - none of whom clearly deserve remembering with a star or will even merit a mention by the media. 

 

So... only a little bit more than the number of people who die from communicable diarrhoeal diseases globally each year, and stilll less than the number of people who die from lower respiratory diseases in an average year

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

And finally, speaks volumes for either (or both!) what a condescending view media/establishment types have as to the numeracy skills of the average citizen and their presumed inability to understand what 2 million is and/or just how awful the education system has become IF that really is true.

Edited January 16, 2021 by anonguest

[Arpeggio]

40 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Apparently today marked a key milestone as 2 million people have now died globally from Covid - well subject to the different definitions each country uses to determine this death toll.

With a positive PCR test.

40 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Even harder of course to visualise the 70 million people who have died globally from other causes in the last year including over half a million people in the UK - none of whom clearly deserve remembering with a star or will even merit a mention by the media.

If we keep going at this trajectory it will be many more from things like hunger and worse, just as the people who are behind it (UN/WHO) mentioned months ago.

[ticket2ride]

Nice video that shows what nonsense some people have been posting on this forum for months.

 

 

 

[captainb]

4 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This is why lockdown is flawed.

If immunity last for 5 months, the population benefits from frequent minor re-infection as it maintains immunity, including newer strains.

Right now we have the homes/hospitals creating new strains due to their residents/patients not completely killing off the virus in their bodies allowing mutations adapted to the human immune system to evolve. The same type of process as antibiotic resistance.

The lockdown thus becomes self perpetuating.

 

They ran the test for 5 months to allow comparison of number reinfected against infected first time over that period. Immunity doesn't end at five months. 

Yes lockdown as a cure doesn't work unless you are part of Diane Abbot conference, in which case roll the Tombola and pick any old bull.. No need to see what has happened in the real world. New Zealand is the UK at 8% of the population yadda Yadda 

Edited January 16, 2021 by captainb