Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[NobodyInParticular]

1 hour ago, This time said:

The only way they'll tell you is if you donate blood.

If you have a rare one, they'll let you know... 

[anonguest]

16 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

I do. Sadly my wife is of the type that if surgery is planned they would want her to bank her own blood beforehand 😕

Not wanting to take this thread off at a tangent but, very briefly.....

What's the limit on how much blood can be safely donated/given in a year? and how long can it be stored for?

In other words how long beforehand would a person like your wife need to start giving blood?

[Will!]

36 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Not wanting to take this thread off at a tangent but, very briefly.....

What's the limit on how much blood can be safely donated/given in a year? and how long can it be stored for?

In other words how long beforehand would a person like your wife need to start giving blood?

NHS says 12 weeks, but you'd probably be OK with 8 weeks if you're otherwise fit and healthy.  For frozen (unusual) at -80 C Packed Red Cells, 10 years.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Will!

[CityLAD88888]

2 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

 We can only hope we're at least close to being past the Christmas/New Year rule breaking peak (deaths about 13 days avg from infection isn't it?).

Plus silver lining 2.4M vulnerable & healthcare workers vaccinated now 🤞 keeping everything crossed.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

4 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

 We can only hope we're at least close to being past the Christmas/New Year rule breaking peak (deaths about 13 days avg from infection isn't it?).

Plus silver lining 2.4M vulnerable & healthcare workers vaccinated now 🤞 keeping everything crossed.

Doctors interviewed on TV say we are only seeing the infected from between Christmas to New Year being presented in hospital. About January 20th we will know how bad things have got. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[NobodyInParticular]

25 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

 We can only hope we're at least close to being past the Christmas/New Year rule breaking peak (deaths about 13 days avg from infection isn't it?).

Plus silver lining 2.4M vulnerable & healthcare workers vaccinated now 🤞 keeping everything crossed.

As of Monday 2 million in total have had one dose, 400k both doses. So that's 2 million, not 2.4 million. 2.4 million vaccination injections. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by NobodyInParticular

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, anonguest said:

Here come those 'passports'......

https://www.cityam.com/uk-to-trial-covid-19-vaccine-passports-with-new-app/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 Popping off to get some milk from Tesco in 2030.....

Forgot Vaccine pass

watch the whole thing......

Edited January 12, 2021 by Arpeggio

[NobodyInParticular]

27 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

 We can only hope we're at least close to being past the Christmas/New Year rule breaking peak (deaths about 13 days avg from infection isn't it?).

The concern is that the current measures may not reduce R0 below 1. We may see a change in the doubling time in a week or so, but not necessarily a reduction in cases. Sadly, it remains to be seen. We may be lucky. However R0 during late April was estimated to have been 0.6 to 0.9, and the increase from the new strain, 0.4 to 0.8. So that might mean the optimistic R0 is 1.0. Maybe it will be 0.95. But it might be 1.05.

[nightowl]

We are now over 3 weeks on from the pre-xmas lockdown (Dec 19th) so many infections prior to the restriction would be in hospital by now if they are ever likely to be, and may already have died very recently too.

Although Worldometer's graphs are 'noisy' - it appear the rate of change is rapidly slowing indicating the R number is dropping and may soon be 1.0 (if it isnt already) although this may not be sustained.  If the graph is level its 1.0, if the sloping down its <1.0.

Although the R rate of the new variant is talked about a lot, it IFR or fatality is not and this is very important to know especially if its different to the earlier 12000 or so variants the world has seen so far.  Anyone like to guess why its not talked about much?

Edited January 12, 2021 by nightowl

[CityLAD88888]

1 hour ago, NobodyInParticular said:

The concern is that the current measures may not reduce R0 below 1. We may see a change in the doubling time in a week or so, but not necessarily a reduction in cases. Sadly, it remains to be seen. We may be lucky. However R0 during late April was estimated to have been 0.6 to 0.9, and the increase from the new strain, 0.4 to 0.8. So that might mean the optimistic R0 is 1.0. Maybe it will be 0.95. But it might be 1.05.

Race against time with the vaccine isn't it 🤞, The new strain has clearly shot the R number up for sure but the R number may become less important in this respect over time as we reduce pressure on the NHS and reduce deaths as we get through the elderly and vulnerable rapidly with the vaccine rollout.

[nightowl]

50 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

Race against time with the vaccine isn't it 🤞, The new strain has clearly shot the R number up for sure but the R number may become less important in this respect over time as we reduce pressure on the NHS and reduce deaths as we get through the elderly and vulnerable rapidly with the vaccine rollout.

The light at the end of the tunnel as they say 🙂 , and the arrival of better weather may help too.

Once the vulnerable deaths all but disappear the R should become unimportant, but I do wonder if Sage and the Media will forget it so easy 🤔

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

 

UK could have prevented 22,000 COVID-19 deaths by issuing stay-at-home orders in mid-March - and countries with the strictest measures like Serbia and Croatia saved THOUSANDS of lives, CDC study finds

• Researchers looked at how well coronavirus mitigation measures were implemented in 37 European countries
• On a score from one to 100, based on measures and the date each country hit 0.02 new COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people, Serbia had the best score of 100
• The UK had the worst score of 16.7, having implemented only two measures when the mortality threshold was hit on March 16 
• When the CDC ran a scenario in which each of the 37 countries had a score of 80, they found that at 74,000 deaths could have been averted 
• The majority of those averted fatalities would have been in the UK with 22,776 fewer deaths, France at 13,365 and Spain at 9,346

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

25 minutes ago, nightowl said:

The light at the end of the tunnel as they say 🙂 , and the arrival of better weather may help too.

Once the vulnerable deaths all but disappear the R should become unimportant, but I do wonder if Sage and the Media will forget it so easy 🤔

Oh yeah the better weather. Who can forget the Vitamin D? That total saviour of this pandemic. 🙄

At least @Grayphil had the decency to crawl off as his bovine excrement became even more obvious.

You however hang on like a tagnut...

[skinnylattej]

1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

• Researchers looked at how well coronavirus mitigation measures were implemented in 37 European countries

And conveniently ignoring the success of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan!

[NobodyInParticular]

9 hours ago, nightowl said:

Although Worldometer's graphs are 'noisy' - it appear the rate of change is rapidly slowing indicating the R number is dropping and may soon be 1.0 (if it isnt already) although this may not be sustained.  If the graph is level its 1.0, if the sloping down its <1.0.

It's all to play for. 

9 hours ago, nightowl said:

Although the R rate of the new variant is talked about a lot, it IFR or fatality is not and this is very important to know especially if its different to the earlier 12000 or so variants the world has seen so far.  Anyone like to guess why its not talked about much?

It HAS been talked about. Mostly, the information was it wasn't yet fully clear, but looked to be the same. Or that's the latest I've seen. 

[NobodyInParticular]

9 hours ago, CityLAD88888 said:

Race against time with the vaccine isn't it 🤞, The new strain has clearly shot the R number up for sure but the R number may become less important in this respect over time as we reduce pressure on the NHS and reduce deaths as we get through the elderly and vulnerable rapidly with the vaccine rollout.

All true. It'll be a couple of months before significant numbers have been vaccinated and developed immunity. Hopefully people don't rush out to do stuff immediately after vaccination. 

[NobodyInParticular]

6 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

And conveniently ignoring the success of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan!

No, they are looking in Europe for what works in European cultures as it's more applicable to the USA. The relatively authoritarian control of Singapore isn't an option, and you aren't going to be turning USA into an island. 

Edited January 13, 2021 by NobodyInParticular

[Gbob]

R rate isn't too through the roof right now, and should continue to drop as the effect of the new lockdown kicks in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Erh9NqhXAAAgq3o?format=jpg&name=small

[NobodyInParticular]

2 minutes ago, Glenn said:

R rate isn't too through the roof right now, and should continue to drop as the effect of the new lockdown kicks in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Erh9NqhXAAAgq3o?format=jpg&name=small

That's encouraging, although > 1 is still possible, so not out of the woods yet. 

[NobodyInParticular]

1 minute ago, NobodyInParticular said:

That's encouraging, although > 1 is still possible, so not out of the woods yet. 

Looks like NI is in for a tough time. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

53 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

Looks like NI is in for a tough time. 

Apparently there are some food shortages there already too. Not great really - Brexit + COVID measures.

Though perhaps Arlene might turn into a svelte heroin chic beauty.

Edited January 13, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[nightowl]

1 hour ago, Glenn said:

R rate isn't too through the roof right now, and should continue to drop as the effect of the new lockdown kicks in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Erh9NqhXAAAgq3o?format=jpg&name=small

Do you know how old that graph is? Its a shame ONS originated data is compiled late but is at least timestamped properly versus the data that's release daily which isn't.

8 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Oh yeah the better weather. Who can forget the Vitamin D? That total saviour of this pandemic. 🙄

At least @Grayphil had the decency to crawl off as his bovine excrement became even more obvious.

You however hang on like a tagnut...

You really shouldn't come here in your fragile state.  You're risk making physically I'll too and no-one wants an HPCer in an ICU.

Edited January 13, 2021 by nightowl

[This time]

55 minutes ago, Glenn said:

R rate isn't too through the roof right now, and should continue to drop as the effect of the new lockdown kicks in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Erh9NqhXAAAgq3o?format=jpg&name=small

Those will be calculated from data that predates schools opening (they're closed in name only). Hopefully removing some children will have an effect on school transmission but I doubt it will be enough.

[satsuma]

4 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Apparently there are some food shortages there already too. Not great really - Brexit + COVID measures.

Though perhaps Arlene might turn into a svelte heroin chic beauty.

People are far too fat anyway, but of hardship is what the doctor ordered.  

[Social Justice League]

We should be spending £500+ billion on Cancer Research, Alzheimer's Research and other worthwhile causes like the NHS for example, rather than fighting a 'deadly' virus that affects a few fat people and a few old people. (a few in relation to 65 million individuals)

It's a nonsense.