Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[swankyman]

 

I heard on some podcast that mutations usually lead to the virus becoming weaker and then eventually dying out.  

I wouldn't say weaker, more like milder.

We are putting the virus under specific selective pressure to push it to produce milder symptoms. If a mutation occurs that allows the virus to still transmit but produce less obvious symptoms then people will be out and about passing it on. 

 

If the rumours about increased affinity with ACE2 are correct then what is probably happening is you need a lower viral load to get infected. This will increase transmission by all modes but will probably give a big boost to airborne transmission - airborne transmission is the really weak spot in our pandemic strategy anyway and this mutation probably magnifies

Not necessarily. Your making so many assumptions.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by swankyman

[Social Justice League]

Again, how do they know what R actually is?

It's think of a number and decide what will close down this week.

[Arpeggio]

 

Again, how do they know what R actually is?

It's think of a number and decide what will close down this week.

.....and what disease anyway? UK started combining Flu and Covid in October

While the CDC have something called PIC: "The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia, influenza and COVID-19 (PIC) has been increasing since October."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0Os5zRiapWK9XUwGAQWH0PMxoEBSvagQPq3TGLkkedwxtUoGWaLi6sR3o

[anonguest]

Someone please put me out of my misery, trying to interpret these latest Tier 4 regulations being introduced for london and south east.....specifically re: travel.

Travel, whilst discouraged is not strictly prohibited?  AND particuarly if from one place in Tier 4 to another place also in Tier 4?

For example, I want to meet one friend outdoors and have to drive, say, 20 miles from my tier 4 area to their place which is also in tier 4?  

 

[nightowl]

 

We are putting the virus under specific selective pressure to push it to produce milder symptoms. If a mutation occurs that allows the virus to still transmit but produce less obvious symptoms then people will be out and about passing it on.

It was mentioned ages ago here even if you have measures that limit spread the by natural selection a percentage of the virus that can bypass those limit placed on it will dominate.

Imagine the controversy if the mutant strain worthy of such a panic is a product of masks and lockdowns 😲 

[anonguest]

iI wonder if the Met, Herts, Surrey, etc. police forces in SE Englland, about to become Tier 4, be using ANPR and road checks on major road routes in/out of the region to catch people travelling to lower tier regions?

[nightowl]

 

Someone please put me out of my misery, trying to interpret these latest Tier 4 regulations being introduced for london and south east.....specifically re: travel.

Travel, whilst discouraged is not strictly prohibited?  AND particuarly if from one place in Tier 4 to another place also in Tier 4?

For example, I want to meet one friend outdoors and have to drive, say, 20 miles from my tier 4 area to their place which is also in tier 4?  

 

Hold fire on learning all that as we might all be in tier 99 by the of next week at this rate 🤔

[Arpeggio]

 

We'll have to lock down for another 9 months or longer then, and develop another vaccine.

Hopefully when that's done and the vaccine for that is out, another new strain won't appear the next week meaning we'll have to go back into lockdown for another 9 months or longer and develop another vaccine for that.

.....but if it does we'll have to lock down for another 9 months or longer, and develop another vaccine etc.

Possibly by 2025 we can be in some kind of New Normal, possibly.

Millions will die from starvation, cancer, suicide, dementia, heart failure, sedentary lifestyle decreased health, TB, stress and other things but we will have beaten the virus until another virus comes out and we have to go back into lock down a week or two later.

Yup

Susan Rice warns COVID-19 'is not the big one,' future pandemic could be worse

[reddog]

To me it feels like they are trying to do data science/data modeling, when they don't actually know what the data is!!

 

[Arpeggio]

 

Hold fire on learning all that as we might all be in tier 99 by the of next week at this rate 🤔

They've been warning what they were going to do re; virus since at least 2017.

You may have noticed an uptick over the last year of alien and UFO material in the news?

Edited December 19, 2020 by Arpeggio

[anonguest]

A question regarding the 'timing' involved in nominated social/personal bubbles......

Consider family A mutually agree to let one person from household B to form a so called a bubble.

One person from household C wants to visit/stay over at household A but, naturally, gets told no because they already have a designated/nominated bubble with B.

Person B, to assist person C, agrees to leave/end their bubble with A so that C can instead be a bubble with A.

Question:  How much time, if any, must legally elapse after B leaves household A before C can visit A? So that there is no breach of the regulations, even if it may be a breach of the 'spirit' of the regulations.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by anonguest

[captainb]

 

A question regarding the 'timing' involved in nominated social/personal bubbles......

Consider family A mutually agree to let one person from household B to form a so called a bubble.

One person from household C wants to visit/stay over at household A but, naturally, gets told no because they already have a designated/nominated bubble with B.

Person B, to assist person C, agrees to leave/end their bubble with A so that C can instead be a bubble with A.

Question:  How much time, if any, must elapse after B leaves household A before C can visit A ?

 

Or just accept its all ******** and move on. 

 

To the pro lockdown lot.. What exactly would you not accept for lockdown to not be worth it? 

Its clearly not the elixir of immortality as 60k have died and now you're looking at 5million unemployed, cancelled Christmas with millions stuck alone, anything left you won't sacrifice for the alter of lockdown? 

[swankyman]

 

It was mentioned ages ago here even if you have measures that limit spread the by natural selection a percentage of the virus that can bypass those limit placed on it will dominate.

Imagine the controversy if the mutant strain worthy of such a panic is a product of masks and lockdowns 😲 

Nothing like shooting yourself in the foot 🤣

I suppose lockdowns may select for more virulence and longer lasting infections, whereas self isolation upon development of any even mild symptoms selects for more mild phenotypes.

At the start we should have had a chain of volunteers. We infect the first ten. Work out which person shows the mildest symptoms and use their viri to infect the next ten. A few cycles of this and it's a friendly domesticated virus which can be set free.

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

I wouldn't say weaker, more like milder.

We are putting the virus under specific selective pressure to push it to produce milder symptoms. If a mutation occurs that allows the virus to still transmit but produce less obvious symptoms then people will be out and about passing it on. 

This effect comes from the tendency of the spread of virus a virus to be limited if it kills a high proportion of its victims, favouring the spread of less deadly variants.  Covid is not quick acting/deadly enough for this to be a significant factor in selecting which mutations spread, so probably close to a 50/50 chance whether any viable mutation is more or less dangerous.   

[swankyman]

 

iI wonder if the Met, Herts, Surrey, etc. police forces in SE Englland, about to become Tier 4, be using ANPR and road checks on major road routes in/out of the region to catch people travelling to lower tier regions?

London train stations are rammed this evening. Families fleeing taking their virus with them.

Nothing like lockdown having the opposite effect. 😁

[anonguest]

 

Or just accept its all ******** and move on. 

 

To the pro lockdown lot.. What exactly would you not accept for lockdown to not be worth it? 

Its clearly not the elixir of immortality as 60k have died and now you're looking at 5million unemployed, cancelled Christmas with millions stuck alone, anything left you won't sacrifice for the alter of lockdown? 

Personally I'm with you on that, BUT......

the problem is that there are too many who just feel they have to abide by the rules.  So IF household A is one of those 'we do things by the rules' types then even if B and C don't give a stuff about this nonsense they have to do whatever the rules say to be able to keep A happy and be able to visit A.

Edited December 19, 2020 by anonguest

[swankyman]

 

This effect comes from the tendency of the spread of virus a virus to be limited if it kills a high proportion of its victims, favouring the spread of less deadly variants.  Covid is not quick acting/deadly enough for this to be a significant factor in selecting which mutations spread, so probably close to a 50/50 chance whether any viable mutation is more or less dangerous.   

No that's the extreme. The virus has to jump to the next person. It has to be released and meet another victim. Death obviously stops that, but lying in bed ill does too.

Also we know this is true. Look at the 'cold virus'. A brilliant example of convergent evolution. It's a massive collection of viruses all that produce similar symptoms. A virus starts out nasty and is selected to eventually just causes snotty noses and sneezes. 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by swankyman

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Or just accept its all ******** and move on. 

 

To the pro lockdown lot.. What exactly would you not accept for lockdown to not be worth it? 

Its clearly not the elixir of immortality as 60k have died and now you're looking at 5million unemployed, cancelled Christmas with millions stuck alone, anything left you won't sacrifice for the alter of lockdown? 

We don't, and never have, had a lockdown. These measures are the minimum required to avoid overwhelming the NHS and a natural consequence of the governments to little too late approach.

Two weeks ago my wife's trust started reducing the number of planned operations to reduce the load on the critical care wards and, on the pre new virus forecasts expected to have cancelled all elective operations by January. 

      

[reddog]

 

London train stations are rammed this evening. Families fleeing taking their virus with them.

Nothing like lockdown having the opposite effect. 😁

Speaking of Corona actions having the opposite effect.

 

At one supermarket every other self service till.is out of action for social distancing.

 

That means even when it is not especially busy a queue forms which is not really socially distanced, thus making the effect worse (I doubt if it makes much difference either way, but it just shows actions can have the opposite effect to what was expected)

[hotblack42]

 

London train stations are rammed this evening. Families fleeing taking their virus with them.

Nothing like lockdown having the opposite effect. 😁

Morons.  Its just one Christmas. We have about 80 on average in our lives.  Panicking about missing one is risible.  A small minority will be heading off to be with terminally ill relatives.  The rest should have stayed put to keep that minority safe.

 London Employers who's staff have fled without warning to somewhere where they couldn't work from, or are hands on, without strong justification, should sack them.

There's a lot out there ready to take their place.

[swankyman]

 

Speaking of Corona actions having the opposite effect.

 

At one supermarket every other self service till.is out of action for social distancing.

 

That means even when it is not especially busy a queue forms which is not really socially distanced, thus making the effect worse (I doubt if it makes much difference either way, but it just shows actions can have the opposite effect to what was expected)

Don't worry, the space age mask will prevent it.

It's amazing the masks, testing, lockdowns  etc are really having a massive effect, reducing the Ro value. 🤔

I'm not sure how people on this thread have had no colds this year. My oldest is now on his 5/6th since spring, I've had three of them myself. If covid is so contagious why hasn't he/school had it too?

 

 

[captainb]

 

We don't, and never have, had a lockdown. These measures are the minimum required to avoid overwhelming the NHS and a natural consequence of the governments to little too late approach.

Two weeks ago my wife's trust started reducing the number of planned operations to reduce the load on the critical care wards and, on the pre new virus forecasts expected to have cancelled all elective operations by January. 

      

Issue is with severe lockdown for the benefit you need to seal the border. 

Aus had what a 3 month lockdown in Melbourne over 3 people coming in infected. Look at the number of lorries stacked coming into country.. No infections for this? Really? 

[Confusion of VIs]

 

No that's the extreme. The virus has to jump to the next person. It has to be released and meet another victim. Death obviously stops that, but lying in bed ill does too.

Also we know this is true. Look at the 'cold virus'. A brilliant example of convergent evolution. It's a massive collection of viruses all that produce similar symptoms. A virus starts out nasty and is selected to eventually just causes snotty noses and sneezes. 

 

A long term possibility but probably not a significant short term factor when

• up to 25% of infections were occurring in hospitals
• lots of people are asymptomatic
• virus shedding peaks before people develop symptoms 

 

 

 

[captainb]

 

Morons.  Its just one Christmas. We have about 80 on average in our lives.  Panicking about missing one is risible.  A small minority will be heading off to be with terminally ill relatives.  The rest should have stayed put to keep that minority safe.

 London Employers who's staff have fled without warning to somewhere where they couldn't work from, or are hands on, without strong justification, should sack them.

There's a lot out there ready to take their place.

Hang on they should miss Christmas to enable terminally ill people to see another Christmas they won't see as they are erm terminally ill.. 

 

Its the crux of this insanity. The assumption is we are immortal without Cv19 which is absurd. 

[swankyman]

 

A long term possibility but probably not a significant short term factor when

• up to 25% of infections were occurring in hospitals
• lots of people are asymptomatic
• virus shedding peaks before people develop symptoms 

 

 

 

What is the evidence for asymptomatic transmission?

 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3

Now, evidence suggests that about one in five infected people will experience no symptoms, and they will transmit the virus to significantly fewer people than someone with symptoms. But researchers are divided about whether asymptomatic infections are acting as a ‘silent driver’ of the pandemic.

 

i think your making assumptions from very early data.