Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[slawek]

 

Schools opening has undoubtedly led to more infections. Even is there is a second wave (which is a consequence of locking down in the first place) why do we need to lock down again? 

To avoid 500k deaths. 

[slawek]

 

 

The vertical axis on that chart has 0 to 1 deaths 1cm apart and 500 to 1000 deaths 1cm apart also.

0 to 100 deaths is 7cm apart while 100 to 1000 deaths is 3.5 cm apart.

It is a logarithmic scale. An exponential growth is a straight line. 

[Brave New World]

 

I think the alt right reaches only the receptive to it, I mean we have the means to research and fact check almost every single thing on the planet within our pockets yet people don't bother looking for information to make up their own mind. There are still anti maskers and anti care about others. 

It's just a desperation to be persecuted, an entire generation of spoilt children in their middle ages who have never felt any real hardship crying out for attention, to feel that they have struggled and that they have earnt something and they weren't handed everything on a government sponsored platen "What about ME, ALL lives matter" (when they clearly don't to them), the equivalent of crying at someone elses birthday party because they didn't get a present. 

Yes, there does seem to be a certain age profile at these pathetic shows of idiocy.

Ironically those that are on the edge of being an age group that could be most impacted......as the numbers inevitably rise, it will be interesting to see how long the protest of boomers will continue. 

I have found those that have gone all Sweden, anti mask and deniers in it are those that have been impacted from a work standpoint, so perhaps understandable, if it were not for the fact many are property spiv related. Including a by to let, daddy set me up and has a Swedish wife (so Covid denier bing full house) who started a petition about not wearing masks from the comfort of his middle class enclave whilst working from home.

 

[slawek]

 

If Spain continues on the same trajectory then it looks like it will take 40 days to reach 500 deaths per day. This a big contrast to March when 500 deaths were achieved in under 20 days from a standing start. 

If I extrapolate I get around 30 days to have 500 deaths in Spain. Yes this wave speed is around twice lower than the previous one.   Bear in mind that 400 deaths are already baked in, the current infections will shos as deaths in 2-3 weeks. 

[Peter Hun]

37 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

+1

I like to think that there is a grand plan, but they are aptly demonstrating that there isn't.

Very worrying.

 

 

Scientists advising Boris Johnson "never discussed" the 10pm pubs curfew widely criticised as inadequate to curb the pandemic, a leading member of the group says.

Professor Graham Medley, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine – who attends the Sage committee – fuelled a belief that the government adopted the measure alone.

“I never discussed it or heard it discussed,” he said of the 10pm shutdown – which was adopted instead of a tougher crackdown on household mingling.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-10pm-pub-curfew-sage-pandemic-b616467.html

[robmatic]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

 

The vertical axis on that chart has 0 to 1 deaths 1cm apart and 500 to 1000 deaths 1cm apart also.

0 to 100 deaths is 7cm apart while 100 to 1000 deaths is 3.5 cm apart.

Is this the first time you've seen a log scale on a graph?

[Brave New World]

 

So your tipping point as to when you might join them is years, let's say 2?

There won't be a tipping point, there is reality of the world collectively having enough understanding of the long term impact of contracting the virus, there is the reality of previous pandemics and it coming in waves, there is the respect for people working in jobs that can't afford them as much safety from it that we respect social distancing......unless you have the mental approach of a tired 6 year old and go around getting all bratty at wearing a mask in your tin foil hat, whining about conspiracies.

As I say a lemantable time to be going all civil liberties when you've ignored the last twenty years. Nothing but stains of humanity currently in central London protesting.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

Another elimination poster country experiences a second wave. The blamed is being incorrectly pinned on tourists when it is impossible to establish index cases due to asymptomatic transmission. 

What went wrong in Iceland? Almost covid-free island's infection rate soars by 1,100% after French tourists who broke quarantine rules are blamed for outbreak at Reykjavik bars

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8771765/Icelands-infection-rate-spikes-French-tourists-blamed.html

Lockdowns don’t work. My view is that this virus has now evolved to live comfortably with humans, it get passed round at low levels in the community and in households and most don’t notice they have it, especially in the summer. Then it gets a bit colder and darker, and those who were due to drop dead start keeling over. 

The real problem here is actually people with weak immune systems - they are the cause and the impact.

If a healthy  person catches the virus, they probably kill it off in a few days thanks to having a functioning immune system.

On the other hand, the immunity slackers, are literally living petri dishes allowing the virus to reproduce at scale eventually killing them as the host and producing large concentrations that could impact on health workers

The vulnerable and those with weak immune systems should be the ones who are locked down (not the students). They are a threat to themselves and other immunity slackers.

[Peter Hun]

9 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is a logarithmic scale. An exponential growth is a straight line. 

Surprise, he don't know what a log scale is.

[kirstieb]

 

Yes, there does seem to be a certain age profile at these pathetic shows of idiocy.

Ironically those that are on the edge of being an age group that could be most impacted......as the numbers inevitably rise, it will be interesting to see how long the protest of boomers will continue. 

I have found those that have gone all Sweden, anti mask and deniers in it are those that have been impacted from a work standpoint, so perhaps understandable, if it were not for the fact many are property spiv related. Including a by to let, daddy set me up and has a Swedish wife (so Covid denier bing full house) who started a petition about not wearing masks from the comfort of his middle class enclave whilst working from home.

 

I know every one is feeling the pain but those at the spectrum ends- the very old and very young- are really suffering. The problem is not masks, or freedoms, it's the thieving gits running the show stealing the money and paying their mates to fail again. Why aren't they protesting about that? Why aren't they protesting about the state of their  NHS or care sector, we are skint and have been for a while and instead of fighting for a decent response with a real conversation with the people it's let's read this Facebook post and believe everything I read (spoiler- it's all bullsh*t) 

[Arpeggio]

 

It is a logarithmic scale. An exponential growth is a straight line. 

Unless an average reader spots this then it's a total misrepresentation.

 

To avoid 500k deaths. 

Protect the vulnerable.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

Surprise, he don't know what a log scale is.

What is you favourite logarithmic base for graphing purposes?

I’m a bit of an e man myself.

 

 

 

https://medium.com/biovinci/log-base-2-or-e-or-10-9f2a694faa51

 

[Peter Hun]

 

What is you favourite logarithmic base for graphing purposes?

I’m a bit of an e man myself.

 

 

 

https://medium.com/biovinci/log-base-2-or-e-or-10-9f2a694faa51

 

I'm an engineer, so 10

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

I know every one is feeling the pain but those at the spectrum ends- the very old and very young- are really suffering. The problem is not masks, or freedoms, it's the thieving gits running the show stealing the money and paying their mates to fail again. Why aren't they protesting about that? Why aren't they protesting about the state of their  NHS or care sector, we are skint and have been for a while and instead of fighting for a decent response with a real conversation with the people it's let's read this Facebook post and believe everything I read (spoiler- it's all bullsh*t) 

Yes, this is exactly what is going on.

This is a somewhat exaggerated pandemic, and it is being used as air cover for massive bailouts.

The banking sector was overdue going pop In the middle of last year. Another bailout 2008/9 style would have seen Occupy Wall Streer x 50.

[Roman Roady]

 

It is not going to be pretty. Even if they don't lockdown people will impose their own lockdown when they see mounting deaths. 

I have never been on Benefits or the dole etc...however I assume that the proc3ss is somewhat convoluted and the payments are not immediate. So if someone loses their job whilst on lockdown (ala as it was in the spring) what are they going to do? One online form after another, whilst the rent/mortgage comes due. Food on the table???

This is going to be a nightmare.

 

The phony war is over.  March - September 2020 = September 1939 - May 1940.

Now we have the equivalent of Hitler across the channel, Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

I'm an engineer, so 10

I’m an engineer too, so always used 10 before, but do quite a lot of data science now and e is good for natural world numbers.
 

That said I note the epidemiologists like log2

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Why_do_we_usually_use_Log2_when_normalizing_the_expression_of_genes

This is a good and on topic answer:

24th Jan, 2018

Max Planck Institute of Immunobiology and Epigenetics

One of the main reasons behind it is the PCR stage itself of the cDNA amplification for most microarrays and for RNA-Seq (library prep), which results in exponential scales.

 

Thus the natural fold change does not follow a normal distribution, whereas the log2 transformed one is closer. Finally, the RNA population itself will be composite, it will have two main populations: one of random background expression, and one of actual expression. You can clearly see those two populations when plotting the log intensities (you can even do Gaussian fits if you like) or FPKMs but not raw.

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[satsuma]

 

Everyone already has Netflix do keep up. It's not a sign of luxury when 6 people can use the same log in, or does it bother you that people spend benefits on an entertainment service? Better than a TV license is it not 

You miss the point, I suppose that happens to you a lot

[Quiet Guy]

 

Lockdowns don’t work. My view is that this virus has now evolved to live comfortably with humans, it get passed round at low levels in the community and in households and most don’t notice they have it, especially in the summer. Then it gets a bit colder and darker, and those who were due to drop dead start keeling over. 

The real problem here is actually people with weak immune systems - they are the cause and the impact.

If a healthy  person catches the virus, they probably kill it off in a few days thanks to having a functioning immune system.

On the other hand, the immunity slackers, are literally living petri dishes allowing the virus to reproduce at scale eventually killing them as the host and producing large concentrations that could impact on health workers

The vulnerable and those with weak immune systems should be the ones who are locked down (not the students). They are a threat to themselves and other immunity slackers.

My view is that this virus was designed to easily infect humans in what is known as gain-of-function research.

I agree with your observations about the importance of weak immune systems which makes me wonder: is there such a thing as a method for evaluating immune system performance for an individual?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

It's quite bizarre. Actually it isn't it's cretinous.

They've had decades of lost civil liberties, huge transfer of wealth, rampant inequality, the current mophead disaster proroguing parliament, lies during referendums....yet asking to wear a mask to help each other and adhering to some rules for the greater good for months....not years.....and these stains of humanity start protesting. 

A sign of the reach the alt right media echo chamber is having on dunderheads, reared on the daily mail, sun etc

Yup you couldn't make it up. And all supported by some thickos on here too crying to mummy over being asked politely to wear a mask, yet priced out of adequant housing for years and not a peep. 

[Arpeggio]

 

My view is that this virus was designed to easily infect humans in what is known as gain-of-function research.

Many scientists think so too. The gain of function part is being rejected by the virus according to Prof. Luc Montagnier Nobel laureate.

 

I agree with your observations about the importance of weak immune systems which makes me wonder: is there such a thing as a method for evaluating immune system performance for an individual?

Perhaps this could be something to consider with a tailor made vaccine. A viral load matched to a persons immune system > asymptomatic and low / no side effects. Preferably just the virus, with nothing added, and through the normal route.

At the moment it's one size fits all without any awareness of the state of a persons immune system.

I sometimes wonder about injecting. If you come home and realize you didn't lock the door, then see a stranger in your house, you'll see a threat level, but realize part of the solution in the future (lock your door).

If you come home, notice your door has been smashed open and see a stranger in your house, you will perceive a higher threat level compared to the former and a different solution (make door more secure than it was).

If you inject a virus among other things directly into the body, bypassing its normal route, how does your body read this? Does it perceive the smashed door scenario or it is simply clueless? interpreting the virus to be even more deadly, this leading to enhanced immune response or paradoxical immune response as it's known.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

 

The vertical axis on that chart has 0 to 1 deaths 1cm apart and 500 to 1000 deaths 1cm apart also.

0 to 100 deaths is 7cm apart while 100 to 1000 deaths is 3.5 cm apart.

You really need that type of chart explained to you? What level of schooling did you attend?

Edited September 26, 2020 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

Is this the first time you've seen a log scale on a graph?

Shhh. Next he'll be protesting that the graphs are conspiring against him. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

There won't be a tipping point, there is reality of the world collectively having enough understanding of the long term impact of contracting the virus, there is the reality of previous pandemics and it coming in waves, there is the respect for people working in jobs that can't afford them as much safety from it that we respect social distancing......unless you have the mental approach of a tired 6 year old and go around getting all bratty at wearing a mask in your tin foil hat, whining about conspiracies.

As I say a lemantable time to be going all civil liberties when you've ignored the last twenty years. Nothing but stains of humanity currently in central London protesting.

Bravo. Well said.

[Arpeggio]

 

 

This is interesting, on T cells working with vitamin D...

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/another-reason-vitamin-d-is-important-it-gets-t-cells-going/

"When a T cell is exposed to a foreign pathogen, it extends a signaling device of 'antenna' known as a vitamin D receptor, with which it searches for vitamin D," Geisler said in a prepared statement. If there is an inadequate vitamin D level, he noted, "they won't even begin to mobilize." - Carsten Geisler, head of the Department of International Health, Immunology and Microbiology at the University of Copenhagen.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ni.1851

[The Preacherman]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

To avoid 500k deaths. 

You still believe the ½ million deaths nonsense? The government is using a case fatality rate of 0.4% so the government doesn't believe Ferguson's doomsday model anymore.