Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[24gray24]

1 minute ago, nightowl said:

It depends on who's model you look at and others got better estimates so it can be done.  Fergurson/ICL's is the big influence in the UK gov decisions but if this graphic is to be believed they guessed wrong for a certain country that shall remain nameless (!) and their estimate of without and more importantly with mitigation were badly out:

They were sufficiently out to be classified as simply wrong to me, and ICLs model will probably be remembered by historians the same the  intelligence of Saddam's WMDs is now.

Okay, thanks for that information. Looks like they under estimated people's response in the Internet age. At least in (socially responsible)  Sweden.  

Now the question is what are they predicting for this winter?

(Presumably the government will have sorted out the releasing the infected into care homes issue, the ppe and the testing capacity by then).?

Any signs of a worse mutation?  

[24gray24]

3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

There things really are guesses. You get the best informed people, but for a novel virus with a complex system (people), a best guess will always be inaccurate.

 there's still an advantage in getting the guesses closer than last time. 

[winkie]

Every government to lead effectively needs the trust and support of the people....whatabotisum is like saying two wrongs make something right, that won't wash......lives lost due to infections being allowed to enter care homes, the places where people's parents live for safety and care.....lack of the right forward planning PPE.....decades of running down the NHS not having enough trained staff capacity, and early testing capacity, a track and trace that does not track and trace to make much of a difference...and special people doing what the rest told not to do.....stay at home....I just hope enough will trust the back to school policy.......our kids are the future not the people in power today.😉

[Mignal]

5 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Okay, thanks for that information. Looks like they under estimated people's response in the Internet age. At least in (socially responsible)  Sweden.  

Now the question is what are they predicting for this winter?

(Presumably the government will have sorted out the releasing the infected into care homes issue, the ppe and the testing capacity by then).?

Any signs of a worse mutation?  

It wasn't part of the original model (they said as much at the time) - the hand washing, social distancing etc.

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-prompted-lockdowns.html

[pig]

24 minutes ago, nightowl said:

It depends on who's model you look at and others got better estimates so it can be done.  Fergurson/ICL's is the big influence in the UK gov decisions but if this graphic is to be believed they guessed wrong for a certain country that shall remain nameless (!) and their estimate of without and more importantly with mitigation were badly out:

They were sufficiently out to be classified as simply wrong to me, and ICLs model will probably be remembered by historians the same the  intelligence of Saddam's WMDs is now.

FFS are you guys STILL clinging onto Sweden ?

This is becoming epic 😃

[Riedquat]

23 minutes ago, winkie said:

Every government to lead effectively needs the trust and support of the people....whatabotisum is like saying two wrongs make something right, that won't wash......lives lost due to infections being allowed to enter care homes, the places where people's parents live for safety and care.....lack of the right forward planning PPE.....decades of running down the NHS not having enough trained staff capacity, and early testing capacity, a track and trace that does not track and trace to make much of a difference...and special people doing what the rest told not to do.....stay at home....I just hope enough will trust the back to school policy.......our kids are the future not the people in power today.😉

Whataboutism is sayign "But what about this if you do that...?" without due consideration of the likelihood of the what about. It isn't about pointing out that some of the complaints are as ill-informed as those they are complaining about.

It's not hard to see that based on the information at the time an overwhelmed health service was the biggest danger, and hence an approach that tried to minimise that was the right one at the time. That's slightly different from whether, based on the situation at the time (rather than with the benefit of hindsight) the particular approach used was correct, but I've little patience with people who say no due to hindsight, or because they're just out to try to find as much crap to fling as they can. They get in the way of meaningful criticism, even when they're right by coincidence.

[Grayphil]

13 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no tested vaccine. The Russian one has not even proved its effectiveness never mind its safety.  Why do you find it hard to understand such a simple fact.  

Given enough evidence, at some point what you call ad hominin attacks become fair comment.   

The vaccine won't work well on over 70s or the obese.. 

The younger will have to take to build up herfd immunity (as you know I believe we more or less have it anyway) 

The problem of course is 50% of UK population won't take it. Rendering it ineffective essentially 

[Grayphil]

10 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

People don’t just kill themselves over a lockdown. They will have been struggling with personal mental issues. The likes of which they certainly won’t have told you about. 

It was a direct result from the.financial hardship that was endured through lockdown..the UK one has always had a few demons.. But as far as I know they mentioned it to nobody. 

[winkie]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Whataboutism is sayign "But what about this if you do that...?" without due consideration of the likelihood of the what about. It isn't about pointing out that some of the complaints are as ill-informed as those they are complaining about.

It's not hard to see that based on the information at the time an overwhelmed health service was the biggest danger, and hence an approach that tried to minimise that was the right one at the time. That's slightly different from whether, based on the situation at the time (rather than with the benefit of hindsight) the particular approach used was correct, but I've little patience with people who say no due to hindsight, or because they're just out to try to find as much crap to fling as they can. They get in the way of meaningful criticism, even when they're right by coincidence.

Can't undo what has been done, rightly or wrongly..... history leaves with it a legacy.......what do they want to be remembered for?😉

[Bob8]

50 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

 there's still an advantage in getting the guesses closer than last time. 

Absolutely.

[Grayphil]

8 hours ago, Warlord said:

President Trump shared this video on twitter with a renowned expert extolling the virtues of HCQ :in treating COVID-19

 

This may be the bigger scandals where it seems Fauci is complicit. And big Pharma really Is a thing

@Arpeggio @The Spaniard  u two do get some flack here..   But seems 2020 is proving a lot of what you guys say as true..

The Queen is missing, I heard she has resumed her original Repltile self, and will be kinghting David Icke on her Christmas day message. 

Its the only conspiracy theory that doesn't seem to have happened This year! 

[Bob8]

19 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

The vaccine won't work well on over 70s or the obese.. 

The younger will have to take to build up herfd immunity (as you know I believe we more or less have it anyway) 

The problem of course is 50% of UK population won't take it. Rendering it ineffective essentially 

If the figure is as high as that, it would indeed be very difficult. Behaviour is also key, epidimeology is more of a social science than anything.

[Riedquat]

21 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

The problem of course is 50% of UK population won't take it. Rendering it ineffective essentially 

There have been quite a few people saying that but I really doubt it'll add up to anywhere near 50%. The majority just go along with everything (whether good or ill).

Edited August 24, 2020 by Riedquat

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

57 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Okay, thanks for that information. Looks like they under estimated people's response in the Internet age. At least in (socially responsible)  Sweden.  

Now the question is what are they predicting for this winter?

(Presumably the government will have sorted out the releasing the infected into care homes issue, the ppe and the testing capacity by then).?

Any signs of a worse mutation?  

It won't mutate to something worse. 

This isn't Teenage Mutant Turtles! 

[Riedquat]

Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

It won't mutate to something worse. 

This isn't Teenage Mutant Turtles! 

Could do, in the short term. Mutations for the worse are just as likely to occur as the other way around. The general trend to a disease becoming milder is because the harder-hitting mutations don't spread as well (whether because they simply kill too many people for them to be any left to spread to, or because they force enough change in behaviour to reduce their ability to spread and hence survive and dominate). But that's long term. Short term a change could go either way.

[Bob8]

1 minute ago, Grayphil said:

This may be the bigger scandals where it seems Fauci is complicit. And big Pharma really Is a thing

@Arpeggio @The Spaniard  u two do get some flack here..   But seems 2020 is proving a lot of what you guys say as true..

The Queen is missing, I heard she has resumed her original Repltile self, and will be kinghting David Icke on her Christmas day message. 

Its the only conspiracy theory that doesn't seem to have happened This year! 

I was speaking to an ICU nurse in North Carolina. They stopped trialling Hydroxychloroquine as it was killing people. We will see if early application is better.

[nightowl]

1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

Okay, thanks for that information. Looks like they under estimated people's response in the Internet age. At least in (socially responsible)  Sweden.  

Now the question is what are they predicting for this winter?

(Presumably the government will have sorted out the releasing the infected into care homes issue, the ppe and the testing capacity by then).?

Any signs of a worse mutation?  

Quite why their model excluded such things maybe unknown and carefully guarded and may not come out of any enquiry, and Im sure Grayphil can fill us in with repeated problems ICL have had predicting things!  My other point about this issue is the gov on this issue were badly advised which ICL have to take their share of that responsibility rather than just pointing the finger at the gov in those early days.

There are noises of a bad flu season coming resulting in a "twindemic" but I dont see any evidence why this should be the case for either flu or covid. Once again theres no evidence for a worse mutation either, although that wont stop people trying to induce panic over any of these such are the times we are in (sorry - were in).

1 hour ago, pig said:

FFS are you guys STILL clinging onto Sweden ?

This is becoming epic 😃

Its more to further demonstrate ICLs model's problems - it wasnt intended as 'pig' baiting.

[The Preacherman]

21 hours ago, Bob8 said:

To give some credit to the Government, some things are much clearer now than then.

An early moderate shutdown appears to be most effective. That was not obvious at the time.

Stockpiling of equipment, including PPE, was an unacceptable failure. Pandemics are not a shock. In 2008, the UK was better prepared than anyone else in the world, one of the recent Governments since then decided to not bother with the insurance premium.

At some point there is likely to be a flu pandemic that is far more serious than this. We have to have PPE, respirators and the apps ready straight away. Careful balance of economy and health will not be an option in that case.

Sweden had a pandemic plan which they prepared for and stuck to. 

The UK had a pandemic plan which they didn't prepare for (no PPE stockpiles) and initially stuck to and then panicked. 

[The Preacherman]

26 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Quite why their model excluded such things maybe unknown and carefully guarded and may not come out of any enquiry, and Im sure Grayphil can fill us in with repeated problems ICL have had predicting things!  My other point about this issue is the gov on this issue were badly advised which ICL have to take their share of that responsibility rather than just pointing the finger at the gov in those early days.

There are noises of a bad flu season coming resulting in a "twindemic" but I dont see any evidence why this should be the case for either flu or covid. Once again theres no evidence for a worse mutation either, although that wont stop people trying to induce panic over any of these such are the times we are in (sorry - were in).

My theory is that the ICL model was used politically. Parameters were adjusted to produce an alarming worse case to justify lockdown. 

Late September and early October will be squeaky bum time as coughs and colds start to circulate. At least we have the testing capacity in place so we will know if the sniffles are Covid-19 or not. 

I don't buy the we will have a bad flu outbreak this year line as Covid-19 has already killed many of those who are most vulnerable to flu. 

[The Preacherman]

17 hours ago, Grayphil said:

The vaccine won't work well on over 70s or the obese.. 

The younger will have to take to build up herfd immunity (as you know I believe we more or less have it anyway) 

The problem of course is 50% of UK population won't take it. Rendering it ineffective essentially 

If the vaccine doesn't work on the high risk then it is a useless vaccine. The vaccination policy should be to protect the vulnerable. So this would be to give it the same people as the flu vaccine with the exception of kids where covid-19 is very low risk unlike flu. 

[skinnylattej]

29 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

If the vaccine doesn't work on the high risk then it is a useless vaccine. The vaccination policy should be to protect the vulnerable. So this would be to give it the same people as the flu vaccine with the exception of kids where covid-19 is very low risk unlike flu. 

Bob8 probably knows more about this than I do, but my understanding is that immune response declines with age, which is why the over '60's have a different 'flu vaccine to the under '60's.

This would suggest that the over '70's will benefit less from a vaccine.

But the number of hospitalisations and also deaths seems to be decreasing relative to the number of infections, perhaps indicating that the older population are taking protective measures while the younger generation are becoming more relaxed about the pandemic.

[Bob8]

57 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

Sweden had a pandemic plan which they prepared for and stuck to. 

The UK had a pandemic plan which they didn't prepare for (no PPE stockpiles) and initially stuck to and then panicked. 

Quite so.

Both nations reacted. We really have very little way of estimating the effect of not reacting at all, the two pieces of evidence are the guesses of either world renowned experts of strangers on the internet.

[Bob8]

11 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

Bob8 probably knows more about this than I do, but my understanding is that immune response declines with age, which is why the over '60's have a different 'flu vaccine to the under '60's.

This would suggest that the over '70's will benefit less from a vaccine.

But the number of hospitalisations and also deaths seems to be decreasing relative to the number of infections, perhaps indicating that the older population are taking protective measures while the younger generation are becoming more relaxed about the pandemic.

Thanks, again, I am not good at all with multi-celluar organisms and the humans are the complicated component in the disease - not the virus.

But, you point is very true. Even for flu, getting young people vaccinated would be a far more effective way of protecting the elderly than vaccinating the elderly. But, the issue is with getting all the young vaccinated.

Regardless of taking measures, young people are more mobile and socially active. They tend to be the ones to get and spread diseases.

[Timm]

41 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Thanks, again, I am not good at all with multi-celluar organisms and the humans are the complicated component in the disease - not the virus.

But, you point is very true. Even for flu, getting young people vaccinated would be a far more effective way of protecting the elderly than vaccinating the elderly. But, the issue is with getting all the young vaccinated.

Regardless of taking measures, young people are more mobile and socially active. They tend to be the ones to get and spread diseases.

And schools are going back...

[The Spaniard]

18 hours ago, Grayphil said:

This may be the bigger scandals where it seems Fauci is complicit. And big Pharma really Is a thing

@Arpeggio @The Spaniard  u two do get some flack here..   But seems 2020 is proving a lot of what you guys say as true..

For well-informed, alternative analyses of current events have a look at the off-guardian.org website, James Corbett's The Corbett Report, Polly St George's Amazing Polly and Dave Cullen's Computing Forever YT channels. There are no doubt many others.

I do not necessarily endorse all that is presented by these sources, but IMHO they are run by serious, well-intentioned people.

To dismiss them without examination by allowing an uncritical, conditioned 'conspiracy theory' reaction to them is to curtail one's curiosity unreasonably.

For further diverse opinion, former BBC presenter Anna Brees is running a fascinating YT channel through which many and varied members of the public are each expressing their individual view by submitting a short 'talking head' video.