Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[kzb]

21 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

I don't mind using the card under the current circumstances though. I'll be back to cash when it's over.

Agreed, if I go to a pub again it will need contactless payment.  This will be another factor driving the takeover of all pub life by Spoons.

[Riedquat]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

Even if the staff use the hand sanitizer between each and every transaction, the cash itself is still potentially contaminated. 

To be honest, businesses think nothing of making everyone wait while they check the banknotes are not counterfeit, why not make everyone wait while the money is steam cleaned before being put in the till ?

Everything you touch is "potentially contaminated" with something, there's no such thing as zero risk. The question is just whether or not there's a high enough risk to care.

The "wait" for checking banknotes is insignificant.

[Arpeggio]

On 22/06/2020 at 10:35, MancTom said:

what is it you think someone doesn't want us to know about covid?

Any number of things https://archive.is/RBgIa

[ForGreatLager...]

There won’t be a second wave as the Govt will just redefine the term ‘wave’. ?

[Grayphil]

22 minutes ago, winkie said:

Answer to this vague scenario number question:

Guy works at busy sandwich bar all day, pops to supermarket on way home from work on bus....later visits pub 20 people inside, stays about one hour chatting.

Not long afterwards gets Covid symptoms, temperature, feeling very tired and loss of taste and smell, tested positive......how many and who will then have to quarantine for 14 days apart from him?

 

His two colleagues who were next to him on the sandwich line,

possibly the pub people, who will be asked to monitor their symptoms,?

the bus people should be OK as they are wearing masks? 

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

Even if the staff use the hand sanitizer between each and every transaction, the cash itself is still potentially contaminated. 

To be honest, businesses think nothing of making everyone wait while they check the banknotes are not counterfeit, why not make everyone wait while the money is steam cleaned before being put in the till ?

You can't catch CoVid by touching bank notes or coins....you catch it by touching your face (eyes, nose, mouth) with dirty hands that have not been washed or sanitised.....

[kzb]

17 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

I was talking swimming pools not being open in comparison to clubs and pubs being opened.

In a public pool you could be swimming in a coronavirus soup. with it being in intimate contact with your eyes.  Yes it is greatly diluted, but even so...

Pubs, in summer you could sat outside in all the lovely UV rays -a very hostile environment to the virus.

[pig]

10 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Can’t you name the virus correctly or something? It’s SARS-CoV-2. Covid19 is the disease. Unbelievable that 5 months into a centennial pandemic posters on here are still getting the basics incorrect. 

Tbf its a useful cult identifying tag.

[winkie]

2 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

His two colleagues who were next to him on the sandwich line,

possibly the pub people, who will be asked to monitor their symptoms,?

the bus people should be OK as they are wearing masks? 

Yes, still all rather vague....do you think it will put people off gathering in such places, not only the fear of infection but that they be told to stay at home for a fortnight, also have their own household to consider?

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, RentingForever said:

It's TFH nuttiness. SOROS19 = George Soros. Who apparently is behind all this (or is it Bill Gates? Or 5G? Or the Lizard People?). 

Best just to ignore

Yes, George Soros Sent Money to Fund the Riots—and So Did Taxpayers

[Grayphil]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

Yes, still all rather vague....do you think it will put people off gathering in such places, not only the fear of infection but that they be told to stay at home for a fortnight, also have their own household to consider?

No, I don't think we have the track and trace actually working do we? 

As for the bar, what i think may happen. With the money, (it happens already in a couple of pubs near me) the regulars put 20£ behind the bar each, when finished the bar person just let's them know.  

So when clearing glasses, she brings over another one, it's the same amount of trips to the table, but the barperson also makes money in tips this way. 

Won't be done in wetherspoons, but in independent local pubs, and only for regulars, but it is actually a nice touch, which doesn't require much more thought or work. 

I think that the population has been locked down already for 3 months, so it's worth the risk, especially as the system isn't going to work. 

[zugzwang]

49 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

How did it work out for them? Were they able to eliminate it?

Versus the 'control expt'? A triumphant success.

To date:

New Zealand pop. 5 million. Deaths: 22.

Sweden pop 10 million. Deaths: 5161.

[ForGreatLager...]

9 minutes ago, kzb said:

In a public pool you could be swimming in a coronavirus soup. with it being in intimate contact with your eyes.  Yes it is greatly diluted, but even so...

Public swimming baths are cesspools of disease at the best of times. Best avoided in my book unless you enjoy the idea of sharing a bath with several thousand people ?

[Arpeggio]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

In a public pool you could be swimming in a coronavirus soup. with it being in intimate contact with your eyes.  Yes it is greatly diluted, but even so...

Pubs, in summer you could sat outside in all the lovely UV rays -a very hostile environment to the virus.

Wow, you haven't even bothered to check that even the corrupt vaccine patent owning CDC say the opposite to you.

"Also, there’s no evidence that the coronavirus spreads through water in pools (or hot tubs, spas, or water play areas), per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)................“The coronavirus doesn’t survive in chlorinated water,” infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Maryland

https://www.live5news.com/2020/05/13/fact-or-fiction-will-pool-chlorine-kill-covid-/

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/entertainment/life/health/2020/05/08/does-chlorine-kill-coronavirus-can-you-get-covid-19-from-public-swimming-pool-water-slide/3088745001/

[winkie]

5 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

No, I don't think we have the track and trace actually working do we? 

As for the bar, what i think may happen. With the money, (it happens already in a couple of pubs near me) the regulars put 20£ behind the bar each, when finished the bar person just let's them know.  

So when clearing glasses, she brings over another one, it's the same amount of trips to the table, but the barperson also makes money in tips this way. 

Won't be done in wetherspoons, but in independent local pubs, and only for regulars, but it is actually a nice touch, which doesn't require much more thought or work. 

I think that the population has been locked down already for 3 months, so it's worth the risk, especially as the system isn't going to work. 

First couple of weeks will be sussing it out, seeing what works and not working.....best practices......different people have different risk thresholds, many youngsters will get on with doing what they have always done, invincible....many others mainly older, but not all will tread with trepidation/caution....others will suck it and see.....watch this space.

You are right test, track and trace is not up and running to the high standard it should be....many would want to avoid being tested, tracked and traced.....so put themselves into a position where the risk of it is low.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Answer to this vague scenario number question:

Guy works at busy sandwich bar all day, pops to supermarket on way home from work on bus....later visits pub 20 people inside, stays about one hour chatting.

Not long afterwards gets Covid symptoms, temperature, feeling very tired and loss of taste and smell, tested positive......how many and who will then have to quarantine for 14 days apart from him?

 

I read that in South Korea 65,000 were told to self isolate following 1Covid infected guys tour of Seoul's bars and nightclubs.

  

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I read that in South Korea 65,000 were told to self isolate following 1Covid infected guys tour of Seoul's bars and nightclubs.

  

You can be sure that will not be happening here.

[Confusion of VIs]

43 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Yes, George Soros Sent Money to Fund the Riots—and So Did Taxpayers

I don't see any evidence that he sent money to fund the riots. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

You can be sure that will not be happening here.

Yep, our contact trace will stop at about 10 and consider it a job well done. 

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yep, our contact trace will stop at about 10 and consider it a job well done. 

Since no longer daily updates.......nobody will know.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Versus the 'control expt'? A triumphant success.

To date:

New Zealand pop. 5 million. Deaths: 22.

Sweden pop 10 million. Deaths: 5161.

Will it remain that way? Will they continually lockdown each time it comes back and flares up? 

The point is the financial aspect of lockdown haven't played out yet, they haven't got to worry about reopening,  ut new Zealand do. 

[winkie]

Maybe next time any lockdown will be limited to certain local areas with a new spike of a large infection outbreak....no travelling in or out until stable again.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

How Covid-19 can damage the brain

Some scientists suspect that Covid-19 causes respiratory failure and death not through damage to the lungs, but the brain – and other symptoms include headaches, strokes and seizures.

 

For Julie Helms, it started with a handful of patients admitted to her intensive care unit at Strasbourg University Hospital in northeast France in early March 2020. Within days, every single patient in the ICU had Covid-19 – and it was not just their breathing difficulties that alarmed her.

“They were extremely agitated, and many had neurological problems – mainly confusion and delirium,” she says. “We are used to having some patients in the ICU who are agitated and require sedation, but this was completely abnormal. It has been very scary, especially because many of the people we treated were very young – many in their 30s and 40s, even an 18-year-old.”

Helms and her colleagues published a small study in the New England Journal of Medicine documenting the neurological symptoms in their Covid-19 patients, ranging from cognitive difficulties to confusion. All are signs of “encephalopathy” (the general term for damage to the brain) – a trend that researchers in Wuhan had noticed in coronavirus patients there in February.

Now, more than 300 studies from around the world have found a prevalence of neurological abnormalities in Covid-19 patients, including mild symptoms like headaches, loss of smell (anosmia) and tingling sensations (arcoparasthesia), up to more severe outcomes such as aphasia (inability to speak), strokes and seizures. This is in addition to recent findings that the virus, which has been largely considered to be a respiratory disease, can also wreak havoc on the kidneys, liver, heart, and just about every organ system in the body.

Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection

[ForGreatLager...]

Will be interesting to see how they define the area border, and how that’s policed.

[zugzwang]

29 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Will it remain that way? Will they continually lockdown each time it comes back and flares up? 

The point is the financial aspect of lockdown haven't played out yet, they haven't got to worry about reopening,  ut new Zealand do. 

Not really.

The sooner you eradicate the virus, the sooner the economy can be restored to full capacity.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/filmmakers-are-returning-to-shoot-in-new-zealand-as-it-emerges-as-covid-free-haven/ar-BB15TXiQ

Quote

Filmmaker James Cameron’s return to New Zealand to begin production on his Avatar sequel sets the scene for the South Pacific nation to position itself as a Covid-free haven in a world still struggling to contain the pandemic.

The 30-person crew was given a government exemption to enter the country — which has been closed to foreigners for three months — because the project would ensure work for 400 locals. Other filmmakers are following, while boxing promoter Bob Arum is considering Auckland as a venue for an upcoming heavyweight title fight, because it could be televised globally in front of a 60,000-person crowd.

While a seven-week nationwide lockdown stalled spending, and the closure of the border wiped out the international tourist and education industries, New Zealand has been effective in containing the virus — there’s been no evidence of community transmission for almost two months. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern lifted the last restrictions on consumers and businesses on June 8, allowing a return to normality that has set the economy on a path to recovery.

“We’ve got a new superpower, which is being Covid free in a world infected with the virus,” said Roger Partridge, chairman of Wellington-based think tank The New Zealand Initiative. “We should be looking at how we can take advantage of that to bring some life back into the economy.”

The nation of 5 million people now has one of the least stringent response settings in the world, according to a gauge developed by Oxford University. New Zealand has had 1,516 Covid cases in total and 22 deaths. There were 11 active cases as of June 24, all residents who have returned from overseas and are in mandatory quarantine.

Ardern last month welcomed Microsoft Corp.’s plan to create a datacenter in New Zealand for cloud services, saying the company wouldn’t be investing if it didn’t have full confidence in the economy and that the nation offers a safe place for operation in both a health and business sense. By getting on top of Covid-19 early, New Zealand has created a “safe-haven strategic advantage,” she said.

Gross domestic product fell the most in 29 years in the first three months of the year and economists predict the second-quarter contraction could approach 20%. Yet there are already signs that demand is resurfacing and analysts expect a double-digit GDP rebound in the third quarter.

The brighter outlook saw New Zealand become the first major stock market in Asia Pacific to erase its Covid-related losses.

The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index is now up 32% from its March 23 low. The kiwi dollar has lifted 13% in the same period.