Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Shrink Proof]

It's good to know that in times of crisis, we can rely on the Daily Mash to cut through the noise and get right to the heart of the story.

As you can read right here.

[Locke]

51 minutes ago, DiggerUK said:

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

It's so weird that people are focusing on the kill rate.

This disease causes

• testicle damage
• kidney damage
• heart damage
• lung damage
• nerve damage

At an unknown rate.

 

Frankly, people who don't wash their hands after the toilet should be hanged.

[Locke]

7 minutes ago, kzb said:

Because your whole lifetime risk of dying on the roads is about 0.2% in the UK.  And most of those are motorcyclists and cyclists, i.e. you have a choice.

Wheras 60% infection rate times 3.4% death rate is 1.4 million deaths in UK.  All in one hit.

Plus the long term health effects I have mentioned above.

[btd1981]

3 minutes ago, Locke said:

It's so weird that people are focusing on the kill rate.

This disease causes

• testicle damage
• kidney damage
• heart damage
• lung damage
• nerve damage

At an unknown rate.

 

Frankly, people who don't wash their hands after the toilet should be hanged.

And cough/sneeze openly...first against the wall. 

[MancTom]

5 minutes ago, Locke said:

Plus the long term health effects I have mentioned above.

how would you know this? There cannot possibly be any such studies yet due to the newness of the virus?

[onlooker]

9 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Ud be safer at sea 

I'd be curious to know if there was a difference in infection rate on these cruise liners between the staff and passengers. I have been on a few cruises, and almost all the food was served buffet style where there was little to prevent passengers breathing or indeed coughing over food exposed. As a (presumably) Chinese tourist brought the infection on board, maybe the virus spread around the passenger side, rather than the crew side.

[Big Orange]

15 minutes ago, Locke said:

 

Frankly, people who don't wash their hands after the toilet should be hanged.

Yeah, complete slovenly scumbags - one of the most disgusting things I ever seen was guy who did a messy number two in a Wetherspoons toilet cubicle (making obvious noises), finished his job, and then just rushed out the door.

Complete slob.

[winkie]

Certain people are always on about how over populated the world has become, all people on this earth naturally wanting a good standard of living, peace, safe homes, food, fuel, manufactured items, transport and air conditioning...perhaps this is nature's way of dealing with it?........we are all vaunerable.?

[Big Orange]

15 minutes ago, MancTom said:

how would you know this? There cannot possibly be any such studies yet due to the newness of the virus?

Hopefully this transpires amongst people with the most debilitating symptoms, but survives (and not amongst those with more normal cold/flu like symptoms).

[Locke]

17 minutes ago, MancTom said:

how would you know this? There cannot possibly be any such studies yet due to the newness of the virus?

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0331/v1

 

Testicles are high in ACE2, just like the lungs and kidneys.

 

Besides, you take the risk, fine whatever. I'd rather be safe than sorry in this and keeping the airlines going is the height of irresponsibility.

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, DiggerUK said:

Considering 1.25 million people die each year on the worlds roads and over 1,800 of those are in the UK, would somebody please explain what the flap is all about..._
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/848485/road-casualties-year-ending-june-2019.pdf

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

 

Because as a motorcyclist I take insane risks given the chance 140 mph on an autobahn, 60 mph up a single track road with mud in the middle and a half blind or drunk farmer coming the other way - but they are my choices

I can get get seriously ill because some slob doesn't wash their hands through no actions of my own

I think you will find when all is said and done the death rate will be a lot higher than 1800 in the UK 

 

[GregBowman]

10 hours ago, kzb said:

Zombies don't use sanitizer!

Asda - the food in there is more dangerous than the infection. I never understood when I was younger why people wanted to live amongst beautiful people (in this context fit)

Increasingly I do. Watching fat slovenly people fill their trollies with trash food makes me puke. 

Never been a Waitrose fan but I get it now - would rather spend a tenner or so more a week and be amongst intelligent, fit people who take hygiene and their body size seriously 

[Kosmin]

9 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Biden is much loved by the billionaires - he will change little and do even less. Assuming of course he and Bernie don't come down with COVID-19 given all their public contact at their age,

I'm not sure if this is their biggest health concern. Bernie seems very young for his age, but did have a heart attack a few months ago. Biden's age is really showing and he has been increasingly struggling to remember things or speak coherently.

 

10 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Would that make Tulsi Gabbard the de facto nominee - as everyone else has dropped out?

 

There are two reasons why Gabbard would be very unlikely to be the nominee.

1) If no candidate wins over 50% of the pledged delegates, there can be a brokered convention. For example the second place candidate could be given the nomination if some of the other candidates give him their delegates. Also the superdelegates could sway it (it's thought that about 90% of them would support Biden). In a brokered convention there is also the possibility of giving the nomination to someone who hasn't even been part of this campaign (some people are even suggesting H. Clinton!)

2) I think technically candidates have suspended their campaigns, rather than dropped out. I think this means they could re-start them. If Biden and Sanders died or became very ill before the end of the primaries, I would expect the likes of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Sanders to re-start their campaigns in order to be in a strong position going into the convention.

 

[Kosmin]

19 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Because as a motorcyclist I take insane risks given the chance 140 mph on an autobahn, 60 mph up a single track road with mud in the middle and a half blind or drunk farmer coming the other way - but they are my choices

I can get get seriously ill because some slob doesn't wash their hands through no actions of my own

A safe driver or their passanger can die or be seriously injured as a result of other dangerous drivers. Of course the difference is that this disease is a positive feedback, whereas dangerous driving is likely to tend to be a negative feedback (dangerous drivers are likely to die or otherwise be preventing from driving in the future). But that is a matter of degree. In both cases careful people will suffer as a result of risks taken by others.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Kosmin

[winkie]

38 minutes ago, onlooker said:

I'd be curious to know if there was a difference in infection rate on these cruise liners between the staff and passengers. I have been on a few cruises, and almost all the food was served buffet style where there was little to prevent passengers breathing or indeed coughing over food exposed. As a (presumably) Chinese tourist brought the infection on board, maybe the virus spread around the passenger side, rather than the crew side.

There is also the risk of infection from the air conditioning, since not all cabins have windows/fresh air and many staff will sleep in windowless air-conditioned rooms.?

[Grayphil]

9 hours ago, onlooker said:

I'd be curious to know if there was a difference in infection rate on these cruise liners between the staff and passengers. I have been on a few cruises, and almost all the food was served buffet style where there was little to prevent passengers breathing or indeed coughing over food exposed. As a (presumably) Chinese tourist brought the infection on board, maybe the virus spread around the passenger side, rather than the crew side.

Well the truth is, we have many different procedures regarding service of food, if there is an outbreak, all food gets served to prevent most cross contamination.. On the case of the diamond princess. There was a bit of confusion, but basically the Japenese government instructed the ship what procedures to follow.. It looks like a bit of a blame game at the moment, but reckon lessons are being learned quickly

[2buyornot2buy]

20 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Asda - the food in there is more dangerous than the infection. I never understood when I was younger why people wanted to live amongst beautiful people (in this context fit)

Increasingly I do. Watching fat slovenly people fill their trollies with trash food makes me puke. 

Never been a Waitrose fan but I get it now - would rather spend a tenner or so more a week and be amongst intelligent, fit people who take hygiene and their body size seriously 

You're on fire this week Greg. 

Never witnessed someone walk into the M&S food hall with a house coat on. ASDA would have people walking around with PJs on at 4pm. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by 2buyornot2buy

[Grayphil]

10 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_flag_(contagion)
 

Don’t know your flags eh? Not much of a sailor are you.

 

Haha, yeah i do

[kzb]

12 minutes ago, winkie said:

There is also the risk of infection from the air conditioning, since not all cabins have windows/fresh air and many staff will sleep in windowless air-conditioned rooms.?

Yeah, but we've been told before on here that the aircon on a cruise ship is fresh air, it isn't recirculated like on a plane.

[winkie]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

Yeah, but we've been told before on here that the aircon on a cruise ship is fresh air, it isn't recirculated like on a plane.

Be interested to know how it works, could say the same for other places such as large stores and hotel rooms etc.....not connected but we can remember legionnaire disease??

[kzb]

32 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Asda - the food in there is more dangerous than the infection. I never understood when I was younger why people wanted to live amongst beautiful people (in this context fit)

Increasingly I do. Watching fat slovenly people fill their trollies with trash food makes me puke. 

Never been a Waitrose fan but I get it now - would rather spend a tenner or so more a week and be amongst intelligent, fit people who take hygiene and their body size seriously 

If Waitrose customers actually used the hand sanitizer (is it provided ?) I could temporarily see the advantage in Waitrose.

But academic for me anyhow because the nearest Waitrose is about 20 miles away.

Asda -I think it is the social side they find attractive.  Standing around in the aisles gassing, getting in the way of the workers.  About 25% of men are on crutches, and yes I've seen women in their pyjamas in there.  It's another world, no rushing around for them.

[winkie]

When a business provides hand sanitizer for the public to use it shows a good sign of dillegence and care for their customers, it shows that the staff have been made aware of the current situation.......any chemist that do not stock it because they either have not planned ahead or not rationed two per customer does not show concern for the community.......anyone capitalising from it by increasing the price by 10 fold does not show concern for others apart from themselves....?

[kzb]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

When a business provides hand sanitizer for the public to use it shows a good sign of dillegence and care for their customers, it shows that the staff have been made aware of the current situation.......any chemist that do not stock it because they either have not planned ahead or not rationed two per customer does not show concern for the community.......anyone capitalising from it by increasing the price by 10 fold does not show concern for others apart from themselves....?

How could they have planned ahead?  Hand sanitizer is probably not  a big seller in normal times.

Certain Asda customers should be sent for a Dettol bath before they are allowed in, Coronavirus or not.

Everything is a business.  Healthcare is the biggest business in the world, fortunes will be made out of this. 

 

[Riedquat]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Certain people are always on about how over populated the world has become, all people on this earth naturally wanting a good standard of living, peace, safe homes, food, fuel, manufactured items, transport and air conditioning...perhaps this is nature's way of dealing with it?........we are all vaunerable.?

That implies specific intent... There have always been diseases that can have a big impact on the population, a lot more than this one (both from being more deadly anyway and because for most of history medical attention was probably worse for you than trusting to luck). Nature hasn't changed. And although the long-term consequences of killing off a significant proportion of the population would be very beneficial indeed we're definitely in "the end does NOT justify the means" territory here.

[winkie]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

How could they have planned ahead?  Hand sanitizer is probably not  a big seller in normal times.

Certain Asda customers should be sent for a Dettol bath before they are allowed in, Coronavirus or not.

Everything is a business.  Healthcare is the biggest business in the world, fortunes will be made out of this. 

 

It is available.....it might have doubled in price but it can be accessed.....there are those that do not have good hygiene habits for all sorts of reasons.....many of them do not care about themselves let alone others.....we can't change them only educate them, and still that might not work.....the cleanest person might be carrying the most germs, since germs are invisible we do not know who is safe and who is not.........big business, big money to be made from fear, panic and the weakness and needs of others.?