Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[MarkG]

So, multiple deaths in Iran today (I've seen numbers from 2 to 9, no idea which is true) and a new case in Canada of a woman who visited Iran and then spent a couple of weeks wandering around BC before being diagnosed as infected.

On that basis, it seems pretty clear the disease is widespread in Iran, and will probably soon become widespread in BC.

Guess I'm gonna stock up on more food this weekend.

Edited February 21, 2020 by MarkG

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, MarkG said:

BC

Where’s that?

[royalmike]

British Columbia 

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Ukraine protesters attack buses carrying China evacuees

On Thursday, 45 Ukrainians and 27 foreign nationals were flown from Wuhan in China, the epicentre of the deadly outbreak. Six buses then drove them to the hospital in Novi Sanzhary, where they were met by demonstrators lighting bonfires and hurling stones. Armoured personnel carriers were seen deployed in the small town. After a tense stand-off, police and the national guard manage to unblock the road to the building where the evacuees would be spending 14 days.

Ukraine's security service (SBU) said a fake email claiming to be from the health ministry falsely said some evacuees had contracted the virus.

Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk, Health Minister Zoryana Skaletska and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov all travelled to the city to try and calm tensions.

In footage published by local media, Mr Avakov was seen telling the protesters: "We are not talking about infected people, we are talking about healthy people."

One person then replied: "So far."

BBC

 

 

[rollover]

Quote

 

A key Chinese respiratory disease expert said that some discharged coronavirus patients could still carry the virus and be infectious, potentially posing another complication to Beijing’s efforts to control the epidemic.

A minority of patients who were discharged from hospital after tests showed they were negative for the virus later tested positive again.

One possible reason for the later positive results could be due to the varying quality of testing kits, he said, meaning the patients were not actually fully recovered at the time of release.

qz.com

 

It looks like the recovery time could be longer than 28 days.

[scottbeard]

5 minutes ago, rollover said:

It looks like the recovery time could be longer than 28 days.

If it takes a lot longer to recover than die that's another thing that makes the (deaths / deaths+recovered) statistics hard to interpret reliably, as well as making it spread more.

[winkie]

Rightly or wrongly this thread sums up panic, the fear of others, the fear of loss and the fear of death, or what might happen, what others could do to change our lifestyle....who is to blame, who can we blame??

[kzb]

15 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I’ve been tracking the cases closed numbers and it was 12% for the few days before today. As the number’s grow, and the time frames of recovery vs dying become much lower than the time since the data series was started, this number will become increasingly accurate (1) (for the sample population, which may not be completely representative). If the recovery time is 4 weeks, and the dying time is 3 weeks, then once we get to about 16 weeks and the numbers are in the hundreds of thousands, then we can be fairly confident this accurate...for this sample. However, I do believe the denominator for the wider population will be large due to people with mild symptoms not showing up. there will also be lots of deaths not being recorded as Covid-19 related as well. I suspect that the CFR will end up being somewhere between 3 and 6 (2), which will be absolutely devastating given the R0. 

This is great for the nerds who want to get their heads round the whole CFR calculation thing: (3)

Coronavirus worldometer death rates

Edited to add: check out what the WHO said about the SARS CFR during the outbreak vs what the final CFR was when the numbers were talked after it finished. (3-4% vs 9.8%)

(1) Yes this was what I was thinking.  It was misleading in the early days, but as the outbreak continues and becomes long compared to the timeline of an individual case, it should get progressively more realistic.  The CFR by this method is currently 11%. 

(2) Yes I think that is a good estimate.

(3) The outbreak in raw numbers is not growing exponentially any more.  The growth exponent has been hovering around 1 for the last several days.  This makes it look contained.  There are some more graphs appeared on that Worldometers site today and they look quite reassuring.  If we believe the numbers of course.

On the other hand, I read last night that a whole family had been wiped out, 100% CFR there.

[Peter Hun]

18 minutes ago, kzb said:

(1) Yes this was what I was thinking.  It was misleading in the early days, but as the outbreak continues and becomes long compared to the timeline of an individual case, it should get progressively more realistic.  The CFR by this method is currently 11%. 

(2) Yes I think that is a good estimate.

(3) The outbreak in raw numbers is not growing exponentially any more.  The growth exponent has been hovering around 1 for the last several days.  This makes it look contained.  There are some more graphs appeared on that Worldometers site today and they look quite reassuring.  If we believe the numbers of course.

On the other hand, I read last night that a whole family had been wiped out, 100% CFR there.

This chart shows the progression, as you said, CFR shows 11% currently and is progressing down, probably to the 2-2.5% eventually.It will take months to get there going by this chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Serious and critical cases has stabilized at 12,000. About 30% of these will die?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical

[kzb]

59 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

This chart shows the progression, as you said, CFR shows 11% currently and is progressing down, probably to the 2-2.5% eventually.It will take months to get there going by this chart.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-outcome

Serious and critical cases has stabilized at 12,000. About 30% of these will die?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#serious-critical

That case outcome plot shows what we are on about.  Both recoveries and deaths are asymptotically approaching limits.  If we can estimate those limits from the existing plots we can find the ultimate CFR.  I've not done this and I won't have time to do it either, but my guess is this figure will be higher than 2-2.5%.  You can see the lines are levelling out already, with a CFR of 10.82%.

[Locke]

This is the end of the fukking world

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1

https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html

[kzb]

3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

If it takes a lot longer to recover than die that's another thing that makes the (deaths / deaths+recovered) statistics hard to interpret reliably, as well as making it spread more.

Yes that is the problem with the deaths/(deaths+recovered) method, but as time goes on it should become a better estimate.  Already the outbreak length is longer than the resolution time of an individual case.

[Peter Hun]

11 minutes ago, Locke said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1

Quote

In addition, due to the potential pathogenicity of the virus to testicular tissues, clinicians should pay attention to the risk of testicular lesions in patients during hospitalization and later clinical follow-up, especially the assessment and appropriate intervention in young patients' fertility.

Nice.

[kzb]

5 minutes ago, Locke said:

This is the end of the fukking world

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1

https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html

People don't like to talk about races, but there is evidence this virus affects orientals more severely than other races.  So it likely is not the end of the world.

I am not sure about the provenance of the following table:

 

But maybe we should all go join Polly Toynbee et al in Tuscany

 

[kzb]

12 hours ago, Grayphil said:

The cruise line won't let you join if you have been through any ports with a high risk, we changed all of our flights for guests that had the flights with us. But 44 people had booked there own tickets. When it came to the pre boarding screening their passports were scanned and they were declined boarding because they came through Singapore. If they fly back to the UK now I believe they will be quarantined (although not sure about last bit) 

Grayphil, can you comment on the ventilation systems on cruise ships?

Some are saying the aircon will be good at spreading viruses, similar to a airliner.

So you can be superclean elsewhere, but that is all in vain if coughs and sneezes get blown about the ship in the aircon system.

[Biggus]

7 hours ago, MarkG said:

So, multiple deaths in Iran today (I've seen numbers from 2 to 9, no idea which is true) and a new case in Canada of a woman who visited Iran and then spent a couple of weeks wandering around BC before being diagnosed as infected.

On that basis, it seems pretty clear the disease is widespread in Iran, and will probably soon become widespread in BC.

Guess I'm gonna stock up on more food this weekend.

Yeah, Iran went from 0 cases to 9 deaths overnight. Now there are reports of cities being sealed off and hospitals overwhelmed. Can't find the reports on social media, probably removed as part of the censorship campaign.

A hundred new cases in S Korea today, taking number of infections up to over 200, from about 50 two days ago iirc.

[Locke]

12 minutes ago, kzb said:

People don't like to talk about races, but there is evidence this virus affects orientals more severely than other races.  So it likely is not the end of the world.

I am not sure about the provenance of the following table:

 

But maybe we should all go join Polly Toynbee et al in Tuscany

 

There is no evidence yet. We have no idea whether this theory will prove to be correct.

In any case, bloody brilliant; I have a 10% chance of becoming infertile, rather than a 20% chance. Amazing. Thank my Euro ancestors.

 

And even if this theory pans out, the Asian economy is done. Gone. Burned up into a puff of smoke. 

They will suffer subfertility for generations.

The businesses are gone.

Your supplier of cheap components (which go into almost every product from mundane to life saving) no longer exists.

90% of medicines come out of China. They are toast and I am so utterly thankful that neither I nor my family are on meds.

 

This is a 200+ year event in human history.

[hurlerontheditch]

 

[Biggus]

Just before this outbreak a bunch of billionaires and industrialists held an event to simulate a virulent, highly  contageous corona virus pandemic (hmmmmm). It was called event 201.

I was shocked, SHOCKED, to hear their recommendation that governments and industry couldn't do much to save people's lives, but should instead concentrate their efforts on preserving the wealth of billionaires and industrialists.

Seems their recommendations, for example, heavy handed and draconian censorship of social media, are currently being implimented.

Edited February 21, 2020 by Biggus
my spelling is awful.

[kzb]

13 minutes ago, Locke said:

There is no evidence yet. We have no idea whether this theory will prove to be correct.

In any case, bloody brilliant; I have a 10% chance of becoming infertile, rather than a 20% chance. Amazing. Thank my Euro ancestors.

 

And even if this theory pans out, the Asian economy is done. Gone. Burned up into a puff of smoke. 

They will suffer subfertility for generations.

The businesses are gone.

Your supplier of cheap components (which go into almost every product from mundane to life saving) no longer exists.

90% of medicines come out of China. They are toast and I am so utterly thankful that neither I nor my family are on meds.

 

This is a 200+ year event in human history.

Calm down calm down.

The outbreak progress is no longer exponential.  The effective R0 is now about 1.  The active case number is reducing.

China has a population of about 1.2 billion from memory.  If 120,000 are badly affected that's 0.01% of them.

If it makes people think about exporting jobs to China then in the end that is a good thing.  But I doubt it will, they are too greedy.

[kzb]

18 minutes ago, Biggus said:

Just before this outbreak a bunch of billionaires and industrialists held an event to simulate a virulent, highly  contageous corona virus pandemic (hmmmmm). It was called event 201.

I was shocked, SHOCKED, to hear their recommendation that governments and industry couldn't do much to save people's lives, but should instead concentrate their efforts on preserving the wealth of billionaires and industrialists.

Seems their recommendations, for example, heavy handed and draconian censorship of social media, are currently being implimented.

Dean R Koontz wrote the story in 1981.  The virus was called Wuhan-400.  He named the exact city in which it starts.

https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news/story/-novel-predicted-wuhan-virus-40-years-before-coronavirus-outbreak-internet-is-stumped-1647261-2020-02-17?fbclid=IwAR2ndvNUZEpsSggeJDzwmz9F9sCVXQWOwucHWOzTBYQ3KYXJgVx-wKt8j_0

[Sour Mash]

29 y.o. Doctor passes away due to COVID-19: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f6zxfj/29_year_old_wuhan_respirologist_and_icu_doctor_dr/

No English language news coverage of the story as far as I could find.

29 years old  - should maybe wake up a few of the idiots who think it's nothing to be too worried about because they are young ......

 

 

 

 

[MarkG]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

People don't like to talk about races, but there is evidence this virus affects orientals more severely than other races.  So it likely is not the end of the world.

I am not sure about the provenance of the following table:

I don't know about that particular table, but it's consistent with some of the other studies I've seen showing substantially more ACE2 receptors in Asians than non-Asians. None of them are terribly robust, though, so I wouldn't bet my life on it.

Edited February 21, 2020 by MarkG

[MarkG]

4 hours ago, kzb said:

On the other hand, I read last night that a whole family had been wiped out, 100% CFR there.

Several families have apparently been wiped out, which is quite disturbing because the odds say it should be a very rare occurrence. The older family members have a high chance of dying, but the younger ones should be unlikely to die.

Maybe enough people have been infected that a few should be expected.

Edited February 21, 2020 by MarkG

[kzb]

1 hour ago, MarkG said:

Several families have apparently been wiped out, which is quite disturbing because the odds say it should be a very rare occurrence. The older family members have a high chance of dying, but the younger ones should be unlikely to die.

Maybe enough people have been infected that a few should be expected.

The odds of several young persons dying should be very small if it is purely statistical.

Family of two old people and two younger people 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.02 x 0.02 = 0.0004%

Or 1 in 250,000.

It's possible if there are non-statistical reasons.  A family is genetically related which is one.  Another way is if there are far more cases than they say.