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22 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

I have the contact details of a buying agent (father of a kid in my daughter's class). Was trying to get me to buy in the summer.... refused to admit that prices were dropping. He specializes in flats. ha ha. I might email him. We're on the coast in west sussex, hour from london.

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55 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Huge amount of bear food in this report.

Like the dropping sales volumes (first person to mention Brexit uncertainty causing this owes me £5).

 

2019-12-18_10-35-03.jpg

Yeah, all about Brexit uncertainty. Brexit uncertainty really affects peoples ability to pay for stuff. The other day I took a pound to the pound shop and couldnt buy anything in there because of brexit uncertainty making my spending power decrease

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22 hours ago, copydude said:

I notice someone put a 'Really?' flag by the North East.

Maybe it's because it's all buy-to-let up here - Southern landlords buying up streets of ex-miner's terraces. (Like the one I live in.)

I added annotation before positing image TBH.

That said: kind of matches up with the drop in flats and maisonettes ... because other stuff increased in price but not enough to offset?

But but but ... with all the amateur landlords selling up ... where are all the tenants going to live? Going to be homeless surely! *sarcasm*.

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40 year mortgages.

Is it a good idea? :blink:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7549887/40-year-mortgages-borrow-80s.htm

 
 
       
Proportion of first-time buyer mortgages by mortgage term 2007-2019 
Source: UK Finance  
First six months 20 to 25 Years 25  to 30 Years 30 to 35 Years
2007  48% 22% 16%
2008  42% 22% 17%
2009  44% 20% 17%
2010  43% 22% 18%
2011  38% 24% 21%
2012  36% 25% 22%
2013  37% 25% 21%
2014  34% 26% 25%
2015  30% 27% 27%
2016  27% 28% 29%
2017  25% 27% 31%
2018  23% 27% 33%
2019  22% 26% 36%
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
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On 19/12/2019 at 22:31, Dorkins said:

Oxford and Cambridge crashing fairly hard 4-5%pa, nice to see. Surely some of the most out of kilter places in the country in terms of house price to wage ratios.

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

Edited by Bear Goggles
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So £1,600,000,000,000, about two thirds of the pounds in circulation, has been borrowed into existence at interest from commercial banks by Joe Public for the purchase of somewhere to live, a basic human need.

The very existence and maintenance of a viable medium of exchange for the UK economy, of an adequate money supply for business and commerce, is based upon keeping the population in fierce competition for 'ownership' of a slave box.

Is the tail wagging the dog?

Why don't we, the UK citizenry, the user base of the pound sterling issue, publicly and debt-free, an adequate, persistently circulating money supply with which to run our productive economy?

Edited by The Spaniard
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On 22/12/2019 at 09:11, Bear Goggles said:

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

I was sent click bait the other day saying Oxford prices were now rising faster than almost anywhere, I didn't bother to read it and can't now recall the source.

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Country and government office region Price Monthly change Annual change
England £248,939 -0.7% 0.5%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 - 2019) £139,951 2.3% 4.0%
Scotland £153,692 -0.9% 1.4%
Wales £166,245 0.7% 3.3%
East Midlands £194,134 -0.7% 1.3%
East of England £293,928 -0.1% 0.3%
London £472,232 -1.7% -1.6%
North East £129,360 -2.3% -1.1%
North West £166,134 -0.6% 1.4%
South East £323,438 -0.8% -0.3%
South West £258,372 -0.8% 0.6%
West Midlands £198,345 -1.6% 0.2%
Yorkshire and The Humber £166,904 0.9% 3.2%
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16 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-rise-interest-rates-mortgages-bank-of-england-a9258196.html

So it's taken the BoE ten years to find out what HPCers have known all along.

Who gives these clowns jobs?  

You couldn't make it up, talk about find out the obvious. How much are these fools paid to finally come up with that?

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On 26/12/2019 at 10:29, The Spaniard said:

So £1,600,000,000,000, about two thirds of the pounds in circulation, has been borrowed into existence at interest from commercial banks by Joe Public for the purchase of somewhere to live, a basic human need.

The very existence and maintenance of a viable medium of exchange for the UK economy, of an adequate money supply for business and commerce, is based upon keeping the population in fierce competition for 'ownership' of a slave box.

Is the tail wagging the dog?

Why don't we, the UK citizenry, the user base of the pound sterling issue, publicly and debt-free, an adequate, persistently circulating money supply with which to run our productive economy?

There's no profit for the people who pull the strings.

I'm not sure if there would be any economic growth in the UK in the absence of residential land inflation.

Mortgages or QE, the inflation is hidden in assets. For the most part, the gains are never fully realised for the vast majority of people, even after they die.

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On 19/12/2019 at 22:31, Dorkins said:

Oxford and Cambridge crashing fairly hard 4-5%pa, nice to see. Surely some of the most out of kilter places in the country in terms of house price to wage ratios.

Heartening on the face of it but certainly with Oxford, while there is a prevailing slight downward trend the small sample size gives a lot of variation in sold prices month to month, with a circa 3-4%  swing in either direction about the mean generally. It seems that for the past 3-4yrs prices have been largely static with a slight overall decline and a lot of noise.

 

On 22/12/2019 at 09:11, Bear Goggles said:

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

Being of little practical interest to me I've paid little attention to the top end so couldn't comment on this; however at the "low" end flats have certainly seen a bit of a pasting - anecdotally I reckon down 20-25% from their 2016 peak although this isn't reflected in the LR data.. perhaps because I'm only looking at the entry level and prices of flats are being maintained overall by stuff higher up the price range..?

 

On 26/12/2019 at 11:38, Bluestone59 said:

I was sent click bait the other day saying Oxford prices were now rising faster than almost anywhere, I didn't bother to read it and can't now recall the source.

Was that the one in the Oxford Mail? If so I took the bait but was relieved to find that it was a comment regarding the past 10yrs or so (which of course we all know about); probably a VI propaganda piece to try and combat the far more recent stalls in the market. Equally the OM published another piece more recently based on Zoopla / Hometrack data that suggested a decline; but again really this was only based on the volatility of figures mentioned above, so other than a possible sentiment-driver was more noise than news. 

All this LR data is certainly promising (if painfully slow) although my concern now is that we might see a short-term sentiment-driven "Brexit bounce" since the election has signalled that we're closer to a resolution, even if that resolution might ultimately cause a significant decline in house prices..

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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