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Converted Lurker

So Iran Has A Month To Comply

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It gets blown up with our 1000 pounders?

And the BoE will be claiming that although oil has hit $200 a barrel, it won't have any significant long-term impact on inflation so they won't be raising interest rates.

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This is one of those 'macro economic' events - like birdflu - that local economies can't do anything about

If oil prices shoot up and stay that way - ouch - interest rates, defaults, unemployment, bancrupcies

Feels like the 1930's all over again :lol:

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Would be nice, but I don't see why Iran would want to surrender to American pressure. They can almost certainly push the price of oil up to $200 a barrel or more (e.g. by attacking tankers in the Gulf), which would devastate the US economy.

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Would be nice, but I don't see why Iran would want to surrender to American pressure. They can almost certainly push the price of oil up to $200 a barrel or more (e.g. by attacking tankers in the Gulf), which would devastate the US economy.

I think it's a bit lastminute of Bush to ask the USA to switch away from oil now if all this is going to happen in the next few months :lol:

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Would be nice, but I don't see why Iran would want to surrender to American pressure. They can almost certainly push the price of oil up to $200 a barrel or more (e.g. by attacking tankers in the Gulf), which would devastate the US economy.

I very much doubt Iran will be a push over. Whilst attention was on Iraq, Iran has rebuilt itself and won't be bullied.

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This is about diplomacy and bluster, it's not about winners and losers. Reminds me of 1998, when the whole economic system was supposed to collapse because of the Russian crisis. In my opinion a 75% chance that there's going to be a face-saving formula.

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Whilst attention was on Iraq, Iran has rebuilt itself and won't be bullied.

Yep. I can't see any sane reason why Bush would want to pick a fight with Iran, except maybe to help his mates make more money from higher oil prices... particularly after he's just put an Iranian-backed government in power in Iraq. It's just mad.

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I very much doubt Iran will be a push over. Whilst attention was on Iraq, Iran has rebuilt itself and won't be bullied.

Go on, whats the dirt/military stats?

Still, the USA's got a lovely big base to launch itself from if it needs to - what an amazing coincidence that Iraq borders Iran

It's a bit obvious what they're upto - democratisation/stabalisation of the middle-east (with Iraq as the USA's template/flagship for the region) before the oil runs out in 10/20 years - don't want a rather rich bunch of extremists running around causing you problems afterwards

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Still, the USA's got a lovely big base to launch itself from if it needs to - what an amazing coincidence that Iraq borders Iran

Where Iran has millions of 'troops' in the Shi'ite majority, while Bush has about 150,000. If he attacks Iran, that 'big base' is likely to be a liability, not a benefit.

It's a bit obvious what they're upto - democratisation/stabalisation of the middle-east

And an Islamic government in Iraq and Hamas government in Palestinian areas is going to 'stabilise' the region?

Everything Bush has done has _de_stabilised the Middle East. Stability is clearly the last thing on his mind... if we're lucky he just wants to push up the price of oil to make more profits in the oil industry, if we're unlucky he's deliberately trying to start WWIII.

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Go on, whats the dirt/military stats?

Iranians armed with small arms (rifles, pistols) taking pot shots at occupying soldiers. Improvised Explosive Devices (ie road side bombs, truck/car bombs, pipe bombs). RPG's (cheap, plenty of ammo - at the fall of Iraq RPG rounds were worth $5 at markets). Political pressure from other Arab nations relising that they could be next or alternatively they will persue WMD programs themselves. Special Forces taking direct action on attacking nations home soil or other foreign bases - oops I meant to say Terrorist attacks (after all when we do it it's ok when they do it it's not).

104259_1.jpg

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I very much doubt Iran will be a push over. Whilst attention was on Iraq, Iran has rebuilt itself and won't be bullied.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but I thought the whole reason why Iran is confident enough to confront the USA like this is because they are one of the few countries in the world that the USA would have logistical problems attacking.

I agree that Iraq is hardly an ideal platform from which to start a war with Iran. Indeed I can think of many ways in which the Iranians could use this precarious platform in Iraq to undermine any American attack from within, if you see what I mean.

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IF the US attacked Iran I would guess that it would be an air attack - probably a precisely targeted attack on Iran's nuclear facilities; and perhaps also a destruction of its airforce and air defences. However such an attack would I think only come after intense diplomatic effort. As I understand it, all five permanant members of the security council support the US's opposition to Iran's nuclear plans. It's because of this that I believe there will eventually be a resolution to the crisis. Also, sanctions if applied properly could have a fast impact on Iran. Denied oil revenues, plus a growing shortage of spare parts for their military hardware, would be a problem. Yes, there might be popular demonstrations, but soon enough the sanctions would start hitting ordinary Iranians.

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Denied oil revenues, plus a growing shortage of spare parts for their military hardware, would be a problem.

So the Chinese don't want Iranian oil after all?

Yes, there might be popular demonstrations, but soon enough the sanctions would start hitting ordinary Iranians.

Which will turn them against the West: not exactly a smart move. I may be mistaken, but I can't think of a single case where sanctions have turned people against their government, they're far more likely to support it against the people who impose the sanctions on them.

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IF the US attacked Iran I would guess that it would be an air attack - probably a precisely targeted attack on Iran's nuclear facilities; and perhaps also a destruction of its airforce and air defences. However such an attack would I think only come after intense diplomatic effort. As I understand it, all five permanant members of the security council support the US's opposition to Iran's nuclear plans. It's because of this that I believe there will eventually be a resolution to the crisis. Also, sanctions if applied properly could have a fast impact on Iran. Denied oil revenues, plus a growing shortage of spare parts for their military hardware, would be a problem. Yes, there might be popular demonstrations, but soon enough the sanctions would start hitting ordinary Iranians.

I doubt that China or India would allow their oil interests in Iran to be interfered with in such ways. If sanctions are applied, oil will still flow to Chindia, and the Chinese certainly, and the US will be told to stay out of that in no uncertain terms.

EDIT: Sorry, MarkG. Didn't see your reply before posting my own. Same thoughts.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
if we're unlucky he's deliberately trying to start WWIII.

Well he is a fundie.

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Looks like Iran could be preparing to cut off oil supplies just like they did in 1973/74. It seems they're a bit upset about media reporting in the West and are going to cancel economic contracts with a couple of countries. Just one or two INCLUDING Norway, France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Ireland, Austria, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and New Zealand. It doesn't say which other countries are on the list.

Economic contracts? I wonder what that might mean? Oil??? If it is oil then it's going to be basically impossible to get Iranian oil into the EU which seems to be the main target along with New Zealand and the unknown others.

Doesn't affect the UK? Iran didn't cut off Britain's oil in 1973 either but the resultant global price spike did the damage. I get the distinct feeling we're heading towards a repeat of that situation if not worse. And of course back then natural gas wasn't an issue either.

Nothing is certain of course but piece by piece it all seems to be falling into place for some sort of economic and/or military conflict with Iran. Neither side seems keen on avoiding it.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1562601.htm

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Would be nice, but I don't see why Iran would want to surrender to American pressure. They can almost certainly push the price of oil up to $200 a barrel or more (e.g. by attacking tankers in the Gulf), which would devastate the US economy.

Not a lot of people know this but the US has a friendly nation to the north that has the world's 2nd largest oil reserves. Alaska and the NW Territories have enormous reserves that may be many times larger than the Middle East (given the depletion) where environmentalists have prevented viable drilling. The Falklands Is. are known to have a minimum of 60 million bbls (thankyou Maggie!). When the Middle East runs out guess who holds all the marbles?

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Not a lot of people know this but the US has a friendly nation to the north that has the world's 2nd largest oil reserves. Alaska and the NW Territories have enormous reserves that may be many times larger than the Middle East (given the depletion) where environmentalists have prevented viable drilling. The Falklands Is. are known to have a minimum of 60 million bbls (thankyou Maggie!). When the Middle East runs out guess who holds all the marbles?

Isn't the oil in Alaska more difficult to mine? Daresay, we'll probably have the technology to mine it by the time ME oil runs out.

Once the oil runs out of the ME, Arabian countires will be shafted. A minority of the population are wealthy - the rest are immigrants who can live there all their life and never be granted citizenship because they are not Arab.

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Mark G

You keep hitting the nail on the head

America is in desperate need to keep the supply of petradollars flowing and even then it’s been having trouble keeping the house of cards from collapsing. GW Bush is only concerned will filling his own pockets, just like his dad (yes anyone can be the president of America and all that )

China will back Iran along with many others and I think many of the Europeans countries are being pressured to take sides with the USA as they too loose by not being allowed to buy oil in euros. America may find it has a lot less real friends than it thinks it has.

Once America is forced to restrict it spending then this will have a major effect on how much oil they consume in them big SUV’s and this will offset the shortage of oil supplies but it’s not easy to see in what order events will take place.

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one problem for america...there is a political mood sweeping the globe,it's called socialism.

Iran are being backed by russia,as is syria.russia will no doubt try and entice the US to invade.then make it difficult for them militarily.....costing them a lot of money.

russia will then probably embargo oil to the US,forcing US to either declare some of their reserves,or go and invade venezuela(who russia have just sold 100,000 ak47's to)

..either way,the war debt will cripple the US economy,and if the military action gets brutal,then the socialist states will cry "outrage" in unison,and boycott US goods.....leaving the US a pariah state with no way out of debt.....the dollar could then totally tank,and demand for US entities will not save them...because there won't be any.

so it looks like US will win the battle(militarily speaking),

but EU will win the war.(well germany and france the main beneficiaries financially)

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to their oil trading platform?

In my opinion, The Iranian Oil Bourse will bring an end to US/UK domination in petro-currency and is also an economic time bomb for the US dollar. Saddam dropped the Dollar for the Euro when dealing in oil and thus america invaded. When Iran stops trading in dollars, America will be preparing an attack and the dollar will be drawing its last breath as it akes an absolute pounding. To make matters worse, Asia holds a ludicrous amount of dollars ready to be dumped back into the market resulting in even more loss. It would be no surprise to see hyper-inflation in the US within the next decade.

It does seem strange that as soon as Iraq and Iran drop the dollar for oil trading, America invades.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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